Late Night Showdown - Final Report

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Late Night Showdown
Team Mafia: Alex Gorder, Brock Sorenson,
Josh Romportl, Nick Eagon, Nick Mies
Marketing Research Final Project
Professor Linli Xu

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary pg. (3)
Introduction pg. (4)
Research Design
Exploratory Research pg. (5)
Survey Design
Data Collection Method pg. (7)
Sampling Technique pg. (7)
Measurement pg. (8)
Analysis Procedures pg. (8)
Results pg. (9)
Recommendations pg. (10)
Appendices pg. (13)
Works Cited pg. (21)

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Executive Summary
In the beginning of 2015, Stephen Colbert will begin ushering in a new era of late night
talk show programs to the CBS network. His predecessor, David Letterman, decided that after 33
years in the hot seat, it was time to retire (III). Our group decided to investigate the marketing
implications associated with a successful launch of a new talk show, specifically pertaining
towards the hiring of a new host. Our analysis began with the vast collection of secondary data,
from a number of reputable sources. These sources included findings from CBS, other networks
that had undergone newly hired hosts, as well as independent television ranking informants.
After observing several trends in the research acquired, we started conducting our own primary
research. At first, we utilized in-depth interviews to secure personal testimonials from members
of CBS’s target market (See Exhibit 1). In order to reach a larger pool of respondents we
harnessed our research to construct a survey method that supported our assumptions (See Exhibit
2). After a careful analysis of our data concerning the industry’s scope and competitive
environment, we formulated recommendations for CBS. In order for CBS to garner distinguished
success in the launch of The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, the network must bolster their
marketing efforts in congruence with the development of a show enriched with clever recurring
segments, monologues, and celebrity interviews. We believe that if CBS takes appropriate action
that supports our findings, a renowned talk show will come to fruition.

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Introduction
The Late Show is a CBS late-night television talk and variety show with talk show host
David Letterman. In American television, which is the focus of our research study, late night talk
shows are a specific subset of comedy-oriented talk and variety shows that air during the
timeframe 11:00 PM to 2:00 AM. Characteristics of the genre include topical monologues in
which the host makes fun of daily news, as well as comedy sketches, celebrity interviews, and
musical performances from new and current artists in popular culture.
Late night talk shows as a whole are limited in number, and therefore the competition for
television and online viewership between these late night talk shows is prominent. Ratings for
The Late Show with David Letterman have been declining over the years and its overall market
share has dropped (See Exhibit 3), especially with the recent emergence of Jimmy Fallon on The
Tonight Show. The Late Show currently lags behind both Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel in
terms of television ratings. Now with Stephen Colbert taking over for David Letterman in 2015,
CBS hopes a boost in ratings will result from the new face of The Late Show.
The bottom line is that The Late Show needs to increase its viewership. In order to
achieve this feat, we had to figure out what components led to other late night talk shows being
successful, as well as what would increase viewership. Once that was accomplished, we were
able to determine whether or not The Late Show with Stephen Colbert would be a success. We
determined whether or not Stephen Colbert would translate well to a larger stage. Additionally,
there were questions regarding how many people were aware of Colbert taking over.
Furthermore, there was the question regarding whether or not Colbert would be more popular
than David Letterman and if he would command a larger viewership than Letterman once he
took over.

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To figure out the aforementioned research questions, we obtained television ratings for
various late night shows as well as key demographic information for each of them. In addition to
this secondary research, we conducted some primary research of our own, which incorporated an
in-depth interview as well as our principal research method, a non-probability survey.
Research Design
Exploratory Research
We began our exploratory research by looking at secondary data. Initially, we looked
over the television ratings for the three main late night talk shows. The Tonight Show with
Jimmy Fallon was the most viewed talk show with 3.894 million viewers for the week of
September 29th
through October 3rd
. ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live had the second most viewers
with 2.767 million viewers and The Late Show with David Letterman had the fewest viewers of
the three with 2.623 million viewers.
The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon not only dominates the overall viewership of the
three main late night shows, but the show also has the highest rating in the key age demographic
of adults ages 18 – 49. Jimmy Fallon has a 1.09 rating in this age group, compared to 0.73 for
Jimmy Kimmel and 0.53 for David Letterman. David Letterman is in last when it comes to
overall viewership and adults ages 18 – 49, which suggests that it is indeed time for someone to
step in as his successor as the host of the show.
Stephen Colbert has a tough task ahead of him when he takes over the least watched late
night talk show. A positive aspect of the Colbert hire is that his current show, The Colbert
Report, has the second highest rating among adults 18-49 on cable television. His 0.52 rating in

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this age group is nearly identical to David Letterman’s, even though Letterman’s show has
historically been more popular.
The Tonight Show has seen a 22% gain in viewership since Fallon took over for Jay Leno
about ten months ago, and we wanted to see if we could find any reasons why. What we
discovered was that Jimmy Fallon devotes 37% of his show to time spent interviewing guests,
compared to 51% for David Letterman. Fallon instead devotes more of his show to monologue,
comedy, music, and recurring segments. We were curious to see if this is a reason for Fallon’s
increased popularity and viewership, so we decided to dedicate part of our survey to see which
segments are valued most by viewers.
On top of researching secondary data, we also conducted in-depth interviews. We
conducted eight in-depth interviews, all of which were with students at the University of
Minnesota. The questions asked ranged from asking the respondent about their views on David
Letterman and Stephen Colbert to how the change will affect their perception and viewership of
the Late Show (See Exhibit 1 for a full list of questions asked in the in-depth interviews).
There were several benefits to conducting in-depth interviews including the ability to
probe deeper with additional questions and to ask the respondents some open-ended
questions. Some responses we got from these open ended questions included: “It just won’t be
the same without Letterman” and “I already watch the Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon so I will
probably continue to watch his show.” Only 62.5% of the respondents were aware that Stephen
Colbert was actually taking over for David Letterman on the Late Show and half said it might or
probably will change their viewership of the show. After deciding these were some key findings,
we asked questions relating to those two topics in our survey.

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Survey Design
Data Collection – For our data collection, we utilized an online, computer-administered
survey through Qualtrics. We all have many contacts within our networks, so we were able to
reach a large amount of people within our limited time frame. One major way we were able to
get a relatively high number of responses on our survey was through posting it on the Carlson
class of 2016 Facebook page. Each of us also sent the surveys to our coworkers, fellow
classmates, friends, family and others. Our group was lucky enough to have this project fall over
Thanksgiving break, during which we were able to survey family members. This gave us the
opportunity to gather information from people outside of our main demographic of college
students. Having members of our extended families take the survey allowed us to gain insight on
the older demographic, specifically over 49 years of age.
Sampling Technique – Our group used a non-probability, convenience sampling method
in order to gather information about our target population. This target population was a
demographic of people 18 – 49 years of age, which is the key age group of late night talk shows.
Given our limited time frame, non-probability was our only option to collect our data. We were
unable to apply our findings to the general population; however statistics can still be applied to
data collected through non-probability sampling, so we decided to utilize our association with
student groups in order to survey people based off of convenience.
Our group selected this method because we figured this was the quickest and cheapest
way for us to reach a large number of people. We wanted to reach a large number of people in
order to ensure that our data was as accurate as possible. Unfortunately, this method didn’t allow
us to delve very deep into the questions that we asked in order to gain further insight into
consumer opinions. However, this method removed any administrator bias, and the respondents

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were more likely to give honest answers. Rather than being influenced by the survey
administrator, the respondents were able to answer the questions without feeling any pressure to
answer “correctly”, and we feel this was important for us to be able to get accurate information.
Especially when considering our topic of late night television talk shows, people may feel
pressure to follow the social norm and make it seem as though they watch what everyone else
watches. We wanted to take a realistic, honest look at what shows people enjoy. Our group
understood some respondents may have experienced recall bias when asked about certain late
night shows; however we figured this was a small amount considering we were asking about
their current behavior that they could likely remember without a problem.
Measurement – In our survey, we used nominal-scaled responses, ordinal-scaled
responses, and interval-scaled responses in order to determine how people feel about late night
talk shows. Our group also asked one open ended question, allowing respondents to provide us
with deeper information than what we were able to collect from the rest of the questions. We
used multiple different scaling methods, ranging across both comparative and non-comparative
categories. These were rank order, Likert scale, and semantic differential. Validity and reliability
were important for us when collecting our data, so we made sure to select the correct
measurement scales for each of our questions in order to make sure we test what we were trying
to test.
Analysis Procedures
In our analysis, we used the report data from the Qualtrics survey. We performed three
hypothesis tests: two hypothesis tests about a single proportion and one testing the differences
between two proportions of independent samples. Our group did not use any statistical packages
nor did we have to perform any additional coding procedures. We were able to solve the

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hypothesis tests with procedures learned in class, leveraging the basic statistical information
provided by the Qualtrics data report.
Results
From the findings of the Qualtrics data report, we identified three trends in the data; these
trends included the similar viewership of The Colbert Report and The Late Show with David
Letterman, the proportion of people who were aware of Stephen Colbert taking over for David
Letterman prior to the survey, as well as the proportion of respondents who indicated whether or
not they’d watch the new Late Show with Stephen Colbert. Our first hypothesis test, analyzing
whether or not viewership was congruent, utilized the findings from our survey which reflected
that 41% of our respondents had watched the Late Show and 51% had watched The Colbert
Report. We failed to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.10 significance level, indicating that The
Colbert Report does not have significantly more viewers than the Late Show (See Exhibit 4A for
full analysis).
Our second test examined whether or not the proportion of people aware of Stephen
Colbert taking over for David Letterman was greater than or equal to 90%. Our group believed
that in order for a successful launch, CBS needed at least 90% of late night talk show viewers to
be aware of the hiring of a new host. We were able to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.10
significance level, indicating that the proportion of people who knew Stephen Colbert was taking
over for David Letterman was significantly less than 90% (See Exhibit 4B for full analysis). This
hypothesis led to our group’s formulation of our primary recommendation.
Our final hypothesis test analyzed whether or not at least 75% of the late night talk show
viewers would watch the new Late Show with Stephen Colbert. We believed that at least 75% of

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late night viewers should watch the first episode in order for The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
to have a successful launch. We were not able to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.10
significance level, indicating that the proportion of late night viewers who will watch the
inaugural episode of the new Late Show is not significantly greater than 75% (See Exhibit 4C for
full analysis). In addition to hypothesis tests and analyzing the findings of our survey, we also
took in open ended responses to enrich our data.
Upon asking whether or not respondents were planning on watching The Late Show with
Stephen Colbert, we followed up with an open ended question if they replied with “no.” The
question asked why they weren’t planning on watching the show, and responses varied. One
response included a colorful opinion of Stephen Colbert in the eyes of our respondent. “He's a
liberal, one sided freak who enjoys making ridiculous claims about anyone who does not parallel
their beliefs with his own.”
Another question asked the respondents to value several segments of late night talk
shows. The most valued portion was the recurring segments such as Fallon’s Thank You Notes,
or Kimmel’s Lie Witness Report (See Exhibit 5). This finding also led us to another
recommendation that will be discussed.
Recommendations
In 2015, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert will take to the late night talk show airways
and the initial launch will likely dictate the success to come. Through our analysis of the
industry’s scope and competitive environment, we completed a SWOT analysis followed by
formulated recommendations for CBS. CBS currently has a strong history of high quality
entertainment and there is the capability for that to persist. This success is accompanied by

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fleeting patronage of The Late Show with David Letterman, as well as the large opportunity
waiting with the revamping of the show with Stephen Colbert. An imminent threat to the
network is the increased utilization of online streaming tools such as Netflix, Hulu and YouTube.
Actions must be taken by CBS in order for Stephen Colbert’s debut in late night talk show
programs to be a triumphant one.
First, our group believes that the most important takeaway from our research is the
increased marketing efforts exhumed by CBS. Marketing is paramount to Stephen Colbert’s
success as 78% of our survey respondents indicated they’d at least watch Stephen Colbert’s first
episode, with only 76% being aware of the switch before the survey took place (See Survey
Results). Increasing the market awareness of Stephen’s takeover to at least 90% is essential to a
prosperous experience for Stephen Colbert and CBS. With the talk show industry bringing in an
average of 17.672 million viewers on any given night, 78% of that market would bring in 13.78
million viewers on the new Late Show’s premiere, holding our percentage represents the true
population (VII). In order to continue The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s initial patronage, a
new approach is in order.
Team Mafia believes that CBS should revamp the Late Show’s nightly episodes.
Currently, The Late Show with David Letterman ranks third behind Jimmy Kimmel Live and The
Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. Of these programs, Letterman spends by far the most time
talking (spending time interviewing guests) at 51% of the show, versus Fallon, who typically
spends only 37% (V). The remainder of the time is allocated among recurring segments, musical
performances, monologues, etc. Fallon has leveraged the fact that viewers have taken a liking to
some segments over others, and we believe this has brought him astounding results. Once
Stephen Colbert takes over the Late Show, we strongly recommend the show allocates more

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time, and places more emphasis, on recurring segments. In our survey, the highest rated portion
of the show was recurring segments, which garnered an average ranking of 4 out of 5 stars (See
Survey Results). The importance of this redesign stems beyond the appreciation of television
viewers, as it allows for CBS to effectively market and segment the show via YouTube. The
Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon utilizes YouTube to a great degree as many of the shows’
patronage comes from YouTube subscriptions and viewership (VIII). Colbert could pursue an
omnichannel strategy by using more segmentation to effectively reach digital media outlets.
Based on these recommendations, we believe The Late Show with Stephen Colbert can and will
receive higher ratings than its predecessor, The Late Show with David Letterman.

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Appendix
Exhibit 1
In-depth Interviews
Results
 Late Night times per week watched average: 1.125
 Colbert Report times per week watched average: 1
 Late Night with Stephen Colbert Awareness Percentages: 62.5% Yes, 37.5% No
 Response to change of perception of Late Night on CBS: 50% indicated it might.
 Response to change of viewership:
 50% indicated it probably won’t.

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Exhibit 2
Survey
Late Night Showdown
Q16 Greetings! We are students of the University of Minnesota, interested in late night talk
show programs, and the conditions that attribute to their success. In addition, we hope this survey
will help us better understand Stephen Colbert’s transition into the Late Night role, and how
NBC can make this a successful one. Thank you for participating in our survey, we appreciate
your participation. Please note that all the information we collect will be kept confidential.
Q1 Do you watch late night talk show programs?
 Yes (1)
 No (2)
If No Is Selected, Then Skip to What is your gender?
Q2 How often do you watch late night talk shows?
 Never (1)
 Less than Once a Month (2)
 Once a Month (3)
 2-3 Times a Month (4)
 Once a Week (5)
 2-3 Times a Week (6)
 Daily (7)
Q17 What talk show have you watched before?
 The Late Show with David Letterman (1)
 The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (2)
 Jimmy Kimmel Live (3)
 The Tonight Show with Jay Leno (4)
 The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien (5)

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Answer If What talk show have you watched before? The Late Show with David Letterman Is Selected
Q18 How would you rank the Late Show with David Letterman?
 Very Poor (1)
 Poor (2)
 Fair (3)
 Good (4)
 Very Good (5)
Answer If What talk show have you watched before? The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon Is Selected
Q19 How would you rank the Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon?
 Very Poor (1)
 Poor (2)
 Fair (3)
 Good (4)
 Very Good (5)
Answer If What talk show have you watched before? Jimmy Kimmel Live Is Selected
Q20 How would you rank Jimmy Kimmel Live?
 Very Poor (1)
 Poor (2)
 Fair (3)
 Good (4)
 Very Good (5)
Answer If What talk show have you watched before? The Tonight Show with Jay Leno Is Selected
Q21 How would you rank the Tonight Show with Jay Leno?
 Very Poor (1)
 Poor (2)
 Fair (3)
 Good (4)
 Very Good (5)
Answer If What talk show have you watched before? The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien Is Selected
Q22 How would you rank the Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien?
 Very Poor (1)
 Poor (2)
 Fair (3)
 Good (4)
 Very Good (5)

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Q4 Please rate the following based on how much you value each portion in the talk show (1 star
= valueless, 5 stars = extremely valuable to the show):
______ Celebrity Interviews (1)
______ Musical Guests (2)
______ Sketches (3)
______ Monologue (4)
______ Recurring Segments (Example: Fallon's Thank you Notes) (5)
______ In-house Band (6)
______ Talk show Co-host (7)
Q5 The following components impact my interest in watching each show.
Strongly
Disagree (1)
Disagree (2) Neutral (3) Agree (4) Strongly Agree
(5)
Musical
Performers (1)
    
Celebrity
Guests (2)
    
Q8 Do you watch the Late Show with David Letterman?
 Yes (1)
 No (2)
If No Is Selected, Then Skip To Do you watch the Colbert Report with ...
Q9 How often do you watch the Late Show with David Letterman?
 Never (1)
 Once a Week (5)
 Daily (7)
Q6 Do you watch the Colbert Report with Stephen Colbert?
 Yes (1)
 No (2)
If No Is Selected, Then Skip To Did you know that Stephen Colbert is ...

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Q7 How often do you watch the Colbert Report with Stephen Colbert?
 Never (1)
 Once a Week (5)
 Daily (7)
Q10 Did you know that Stephen Colbert is taking over for David Letterman on the Late Show in
2015?
 Yes (1)
 No (2)
Q13 Will you watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert in 2015?
 Yes (1)
 No (2)
If Yes Is Selected, Then Skip To How well do you think Stephen Colbert...
Q23 Why will you choose not to watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert in 2015?
Q11 How well do you think Stephen Colbert will perform as the host of the Late Show?
 Very Poor (1)
 Poor (2)
 Fair (3)
 Good (4)
 Very Good (5)
Q14 What is your gender?
 Male (1)
 Female (2)
Q15 What is your age? (In years)
________________

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Exhibit 4
A. Whether or not the viewership of the Colbert Report is the same as the Late Show:
- Null: The proportion of people who watch The Colbert Report and The Late Show is the
same.
- Alternative: The proportion of people who watch The Colbert Report and The Late
Show is not the same.
Ho: 𝝅 𝟏 = 𝝅 𝟐 H1: 𝝅 𝟏 ≠ 𝝅 𝟐 𝒕 =
(𝒑 𝟏−𝒑 𝟐)−(𝝅 𝟏−𝝅 𝟐)
𝒔 𝒑 𝟏−𝒑 𝟐
t = 0.90 z = 1.65 |0.90| > 1.65?
Fail to reject Ho at the 0.10 significance level that the proportion of people who watch The
Colbert Report and The Late Show is the same in favor of the alternative, that the proportion of
people who watch each show is different. The Colbert Report does not have significantly more
viewers than the Late Show.
B. Whether or not the proportion of people who are aware of Stephen Colbert taking
over is greater than or equal to 90%:
- Null: The proportion of people who are aware of Stephen Colbert taking over is greater
than or equal to 90%.
- Alternative: The proportion of people who are aware of Stephen Colbert taking over is
less than 90%.
Ho: 𝝆 < 𝟎. 𝟗 H1: 𝝆 ≥ 𝟎. 𝟗 𝒕 =
𝒑− 𝝅
√ 𝒑(𝟏−𝒑)
𝒏⁄
t = 2.099 z = 1.65 |2.099| > 1.65?
Reject Ho at the .10 significance level, the proportion of people who know Stephen Colbert is
taking over for David Letterman is significantly less than 90%.

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C. Whether or not at least 75% of late night talk show viewers will watch the new Late
Show with Colbert:
- Null: Less than 75% of late night talk show viewers will watch the new Late Show with
Colbert.
- Alternative: Greater or equal to 75% of late night talk show viewers will watch the new
Late Show with Colbert.
Ho: 𝝆 < 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓 H1: 𝝆 ≥ 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓 𝒕 =
𝒑− 𝝅
√ 𝒑(𝟏−𝒑)
𝒏⁄
t = 0.458 z = 1.65 |0.458| > 1.65?
Fail to reject Ho at the 0.10 significance level that less than 75% of late night talk show viewers
will watch the new Late Show with Colbert. The proportion of late night talk show viewers is not
significantly greater than 75%.
Exhibit 5

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Works Cited
I. "Late Show With David Letterman - CBS.com." CBS. CBS, n.d. Web. 13 Oct. 2014.
II. Kondolojy, Amanda. "Late Night TV Ratings for September 29th - October 3rd, 2014."
Zap2it. Tribune Digital Venures, 9 Oct. 2014. Web. 11 Oct. 2014.
III. "Stephen Colbert Next Host of "The Late Show"" CBS. CBS, 10 Apr. 2014. Web. 12 Oct.
2014.
IV. The Deadline Team. "UPDATE: Stephen Colbert Named CBS' New 'Late Show' Host."
Deadline. Penske Business Media, 10 Apr. 2014. Web. 13 Oct. 2014.
V. THE LATE NIGHT REVOLUTION: How Jimmy Fallon Is Redefining The Talk Show
(n.d.): n. pag. Web. 13 Oct. 2014.
VI. "Late-Night Ratings Battle: Leno's Legacy, Fallon's Potential and the Threat of Kimmel."
The Hollywood Reporter. N.p., n.d. Web. 07 Dec. 2014.
VII. "A Surprising Ranking Of The Late Night Talk Shows Based On Their Nielsen Ratings."
UPROXX RSS. N.p., n.d. Web. 07 Dec. 2014.
VIII. "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon." YouTube. YouTube, n.d. Web. 07 Dec.
2014.

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