Describes the predicted consequences of the legalization of adult ("recreational") use of cannabis, vs. what actually happened, focused on Colorado State.

1. Effects of
Cannabis
Re-Legalization
Jim Plamondon, VP/Marketing
Thai Cannabis Corporation
www.ThaiCannabisCorporation.com

2. Agenda
• History of cannabis law in the USA
• Cannabis re-legalization:
• Predictions
• Outcomes
• Q&A
Questions?

3. Cannabis Law in the USA (1 of 4)
Nation-wide (“federal” law)
• 1600-1900: Cannabis was an important, legal crop for fiber, seed, &
medicines.
• 1919-1933: Alcohol prohibited in the USA. When alcohol prohibition
ended, bureaucrats sought something else to prohibit: drugs.
• 1937: Marijuana Tax Act prohibited cannabis (in effect). Act declared
unconstitutional in 1969.
• 1970: Controlled Substances Act required a scientific study of
cannabis.
• “Shafer Commission” study found that cannabis should be decriminalized.
• US government ignored the study and enforced prohibition.
Questions?

4. Cannabis Law in the USA (2 of 4)
Focus on Colorado
• 1975: Based on Shafer Commission study, Colorado decriminalized
cannabis. Small fine for possession; NOT legal to grow, sell, or use.
• 2000: Colorado legalized self-grown cannabis for medical use; NOT
legal to sell, or to grow more than six plants.
• 2012: Colorado legalized, regulated, and taxed “non-medical use” of
cannabis, including a commercial cannabis supply chain “from seed to
sale,” pending release of regulations and licenses.
• 2012-2014: Colorado defined cannabis regulations.
• 2014: Legal, regulated, non-medical cannabis sales begin in Colorado.
• Many other states do the same thing (see next slides).
Questions?

5. Cannabis Law in the USA (3 of 4)
Timeline of cannabis legalization in the USA
Questions?

6. Cannabis Law in the USA (4 of 4)
Map of cannabis legalization in the USA (as of today)
Questions?

7. Cannabis Law in the USA
End of topic
Questions?

8. Cannabis Re-legalization
List of predictions
• Against re-legalization:
1. Increase cannabis use.
2. Increase traffic deaths.
3. Increase criminal activity.
• For re-legalization:
4. Increase government revenue (net).
5. Increase economy.
6. Decrease police/prison spending.
Questions?

9. • Each study reflects the biases of those who paid for it.
• Police-paid: “Cannabis re-legalization is always bad.”
• Cannabis-industry-paid: “Cannabis re-legalization is always good.”
• Health-paid: “Cannabis re-legalization is good in some ways, bad in others.”
• English saying: “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
• Biased studies can prove any point, for or against.
• I will try to cite credible sources
• From health-oriented sources, not police or cannabis industry.
Cannabis Re-legalization
Caveat on the credibility of sources cited
Questions?

10. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase cannabis use
• US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), 2018: “High School Youth Risk
Behavior Survey: Colorado v USA”
• No difference in cannabis use between Colorado and USA nationwide
• State of Colorado Marijuana Public Health Advisory Committee, 2017:
“Monitoring Health Concerns Related to Marijuana in Colorado: 2016”
• “Past-month marijuana use among adults and adolescents has not changed since
legalization.”
• “Past-month marijuana use among Colorado adolescents is nearly identical to the
national average.”
• Conclusion: Re-legalization of cannabis has no impact of rates of use,
because people are already using it, whether it is legal or not.
Questions?

11. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase traffic accidents
• Martin, 2017: “Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents”:
• Driving while “high” is not safe.
• Driving while intoxicated increases the risk of causing a fatal accident by a factor of:
• Alcohol: 17.8
• Cannabis: 1.7 (one tenth the effect of alcohol)
• Hansen 2018: “Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and
Traffic Fatalities”
• Studied data from Colorado, Washington State, and nationwide.
• Developed “synthetic control groups” to normalize for confounding variables.
• Conclusion: “We find that states that legalized marijuana have not experienced
significantly different rates of marijuana- or alcohol-related traffic fatalities relative
to their synthetic controls.”
• Conclusion: Cannabis legalization does not change traffic fatality rates.
Questions?

12. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase criminal activity
• The Economic Journal (Gavrilova, 2018): “Is Legal Pot Crippling
Mexican Drug Trafficking Organisations? The Effect of Medical
Marijuana Laws on US Crime”
• “We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads to a
decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico [the USA’s main source
of illegal cannabis].”
• Homicides specifically related to the drug trade fell by an astonishing 41%.
• Institute of Labor Economics (Dragone, 2018): “Crime and the
legalization of recreational marijuana”
• We provide first-pass evidence that the legalization of the cannabis market
across US states may be inducing a crime drop.
Questions?

13. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase tax revenues
Questions?

14. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase tax revenue
Note the decline in “medical
marijuana” sales
Questions?

15. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase tax revenue
• Colorado’s 2018 state budget is $28 billion.
• Marijuana taxes, at $247 million, contribute less than 1% of the budget.
• Do not legalize to increase tax revenue.
Questions?

16. Cannabis Re-legalization
Increase economy
• US Federal Reserve (Felix, 2018): “The Economic Effects of the Marijuana
Industry in Colorado”
• Marijuana sales: $1.3 billion (0.55 percent of consumer expenditures).
• Food and bev sales: 7.2 percent. (Marijuana is not a big industry.)
• Employment: 17,821 full-time equivalent staff (0.7% of jobs)
• Employment growth (percent of the total change in Colorado employment in the first
half of 2017):
• Marijuana: 5.5%
• Mining and logging: 7%
• Leisure and hospitality: 23%
• Conclusion:
• Re-legalization has grown the economy… a little bit.
• Do not legalize to grow your economy.
Questions?

17. Cannabis Re-legalization
Decrease prison spending
• The idea was that governments would:
1. Stop arresting people for cannabis-related crimes
2. Release prisoners already convicted of such crimes.
• Neither happened.
• Cannabis is still grown and sold illegally (the “black market”), and the people
doing it are still being arrested.
• Colorado has no system for releasing prisoners whose crime would now be
legal.
• Conclusion: Insufficient data.
Questions?

18. Cannabis Re-legalization
Unpredicted: Use of other drugs has declined (esp. opioids)
Questions?

19. Cannabis Re-legalization
Unpredicted: Use of other drugs has declined (esp. opioids)
• RAND Corporation (Powell, 2018): “Do Medical Marijuana Laws
Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers?”
• Yes: patients will use cannabis instead of opioids if cannabis is legal and easy.
• AJPH Research (Livingston, 2017): “Recreational Cannabis Legalization
and Opioid-Related Deaths in Colorado, 2000–2015”
• Legalizing recreational cannabis made cannabis even easier to buy, reducing
opioid-related deaths in Colorado.
• Health Affairs (Bradford, 2016): “Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce
Prescription Medication Use In Medicare Part D”
• Patients choose cannabis over MANY prescription medicines, not only opiods.

20. Cannabis Re-legalization
Unpredicted: Use of other drugs has declined (esp. opioids)
• RAND Corporation (Powell, 2018): “Do Medical Marijuana Laws
Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers?”
• Yes: patients will use cannabis instead of opioids if cannabis is legal and easy.
• AJPH Research (Livingston, 2017): “Recreational Cannabis Legalization
and Opioid-Related Deaths in Colorado, 2000–2015”
• Legalizing recreational cannabis made cannabis even easier to buy, reducing
opioid-related deaths in Colorado.
• Health Affairs (Bradford, 2016): “Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce
Prescription Medication Use In Medicare Part D”
• Patients choose cannabis over MANY prescription medicines, not only opiods.
Questions?

21. Cannabis Re-legalization
Unpredicted: Consumers would choose cannabis over alcohol
• Social Science Research Network (Baggio, 2017): “Helping Settle the
Marijuana and Alcohol Debate: Evidence from Scanner Data”
• “Counties in states legalizing the use of medical marijuana experience a
significant [13%] decrease in the aggregate sales of alcohol, beer and wine.”
• Independent (Baynes, 2018): “Marijuana sales overtake alcohol in US
city for first time”
• In the ski resort of Aspen, Colorado, cannabis vendors (all “take-away”) sold
$11.3m of cannabis in 2017, compared to $10.5m from alcohol take-away
shops.
• Alcohol has much worse public health outcomes than cannabis.
Having cannabis replace alcohol would be a very good thing.

22. Cannabis Re-legalization
Unpredicted: Consumers would choose cannabis over alcohol
• Social Science Research Network (Baggio, 2017): “Helping Settle the
Marijuana and Alcohol Debate: Evidence from Scanner Data”
• “Counties in states legalizing the use of medical marijuana experience a
significant [13%] decrease in the aggregate sales of alcohol, beer and wine.”
• Independent (Baynes, 2018): “Marijuana sales overtake alcohol in US
city for first time”
• In the ski resort of Aspen, Colorado, cannabis vendors (all “take-away”) sold
$11.3m of cannabis in 2017, compared to $10.5m from alcohol take-away
shops.
• Alcohol has much worse public health outcomes than cannabis.
Having cannabis replace alcohol would be a very good thing.
Questions?

23. Summary
DO re-legalize cannabis in Malaysia.
NOT to grow the economy or to get tax revenue…
but instead, to improve public health…
by making cannabis-containing products easy to buy.

24. End of presentation.
• Questions?
• Jim.Plamondon@ThaiCannabisCorporation.com