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Jesse	Emmanuel	Rosario	
@jemrosario	
Building
Contextual Personas
through
Scenario Planning
F	A	C	T:	
Personas	are	great!
From Freepik
(http://www.freepik.com/free-vector/variety-of-human-avatars_766615.htm)
user	
research	
Ellen	
•  45	years	old	
•  Mother	of	two	
•  Proud	tech	adopter	
•  Pays	for	her	coffee	
exclusively	from	her	
mobile	device
•  Personas	became		
“laughable	caricatures	packed	full		
of	stereotypical	details	based	on	
nothing	more	than	marketing	data”		
-	Jaime	Levy,	UX	Strategy	(2015)	
But something happened along the way…
#badPersonas
Sam	Avery	
•  18	years	old	
•  Full-time	student,	part-time	barista	
•  Favourite	artist:		
The	Strokes,	Nina	Simone,	Sia	
•  Favourite	brands:		
Acne	Studios,	Apple,	Blue	Bottle	Coffee	
•  Descriptions:		
Vintage,	Glam,	Classic,	Hipster	(oh	yeah!)
P	R	O	B	L	E	M	
Traditional	personas	
lack	the	product	
context	needed	to	build	
digital	products	that	
users	want	and	
generate	business.	
How	do	we	solve	this?
CONTEXTUAL	
PERSONAS	
	
Behavioral		
Insights		
+		
Product		
Context
“Context”
•  The	conditions	that	give	rise	to	a	product	idea.	
Problem	
Space	
Competitive	
Landscape	
Problem/
Solution	Fit
“Context”
•  GOAL:	Understand	the	“job-to-be-done”		
(Clayton	Christensen,	The	Innovator’s	Solution,	2003)	
–  Pain	Point:	Situations	where	customers	want	some	problem	solved	
–  The	Thing	They’ll	Hire:	…and	they’re	looking	to	hire	something	that	fixes	that	
problem	
Problem	
Space	
Competitive	
Landscape	
Problem/
Solution	Fit
Scenario Planning
A	strategic	foresight	method		
that	lets	you	take	an	educated	peek		
at	some	futures	your	product	or	service	
might	play	out.	
DISCLAIMER:	
The	scenario	planning	process	outlined	in	this	presentation	is	adapted	
from	Henri	Lipmanowicz	and	Keith	McCandless’	Liberating	Structures		
(specifically	LS	#	30:	“Critical	Uncertainties”).	
So	how	do	you	tease	out	that	job-to-be-done?
IDENTIFYING
TRENDS
Problem space
User Research
Critical Uncertainties
BUILDING
SCENARIOS
Scenario Matrix
IMPLICATIONS
FOR STRATEGY
Consider scenarios’
implications for strategy
SOURCES:	OCAD	University	Strategic	Innovation	Lab;	Where	in	the	Future	(by	Trevor	Haldenby	and	Gabe	Sawhney,	2012)
Try It!
How	might	we	get		
Toronto	Public	Library	
patrons	renewing		
their	library	cards		
on	time?
1
Find your
critical
uncertainties
	
(i.e.	the	two	big-ticket	and	
uncertain	factors	surrounding	
your	users)	
What	is	the		
most	hard-hitting/
crucial	factor	about	
your	users	that	
could	affect	the	
product/service’s	
creation?	
What	is	the		
most	uncertain/
volatile	factor	
surrounding	your	
users?	
CRITICAL	FACTOR	 UNCERTAIN	FACTOR
1
Find your
critical
uncertainties
	
(i.e.	the	two	big-ticket	and	
uncertain	factors	surrounding	
your	users)	
HOW	DO	WE	FIND	THAT?	
UX	RESEARCH	
(interviews,	contextual	
inquiry,	analytics	
research,	surveys,	
ethnography,	etc.)		
IDENTIFY	TRENDS	
(affinity	mapping,	
recurring	themes,		
five	whys,	etc.)
Relationship	
with	the	
Library	
	
(e.g.	good,	bad,		
okay,	etc.)	
Date		
recall		
	
	
(i.e.	ability	to		
remember	dates)	
CRITICAL	FACTOR	 UNCERTAIN	FACTOR	
1
Find your
critical
uncertainties
	
(i.e.	the	two	big-ticket	and	
uncertain	factors	surrounding	
your	users)
2
Plot these
critical
uncertainties
on a 2×2 matrix
C	=	Relationship	with	the	Library	
U	=	Date	recall	
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
POOR
(e.g. forgetful)
STELLAR
(e.g. retentive)
Forget	
Me	Not!!!	
The	Eager	
Superfan	
“Meh…”	
The	
Breakup	
Guy/Girl	
(RESULT:	A	user	type	that	has	a	specific	
backstory,	i.e.	the	“context”	that	probes	
their	relationship	with	your	product)
3
Report
your findings.
Continue
research.
C	=	Relationship	with	the	Library	
U	=	Date	recall	
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
POOR
(e.g. forgetful)
STELLAR
(e.g. retentive)
Forget	
Me	Not!!!	
The	Eager	
Superfan	
“Meh…”	
The	
Breakup	
Guy/Girl
Some	common	
quesBons,	concerns,	
objecBons,	etc.	
(a.k.a. YA RLY…)
Nice process, but…
Aren’t traditional
personas enough?
ANSWER:
Half and half. Tradi.onal personas are great with user behaviours, but they always don’t tell you why these
behaviours ma@er to you and your business (at least explicitly). It oGen struggles to make the connec.on
with business strategy, which is key to achieving research/strategy buy-in!
(You’re honestly making my life complicated... *eye roll*)
Product Development
today is a
High Stakes Game
PHOTO BY Francois Arias
http://boingboing.net/2012/12/02/dog-dressed-as-two-dogs-holdin.html
Problem-
Solution	Fit		
(Pain	Points	+		
Job	to	be	Done)	
Business	
Strategy	
(through		
Value	Innovation)	
+
If	our	goal	is	to	build	products	
that	our	users	and	stakeholders	
will	love,	we’ve	got	to	make		
Problem-Solution	Fit		
and	Business	Strategy		
sing	in	unison.		
“Like	2	Peas	in	a	Pod”	by	Lisa	Hunt
Four	Lessons	I	Have	Learned:	
ConnecBng	Research	to	
Strategy	
(a.k.a. the leapfrog…)
Always do a reality check about
your product and mission whenever you can.
Ask yourself, “What’s the problem we’re
really solving and the job-to-be done?”
every time you’re carried away.
1
Align. Align. Align.2
Communicate with everyone.
Clarity goes a long way.3
As	designers,	we’re	more	of	a	sherpa	than	Moses,	really…
Track success.
Revisit your strategy.4
•  Contextual	Personas	=		
Behavioral	Insights	+	Product	Context.		
•  Glimpses	potential	usage	scenarios	given	user	goals,	
motivations,	and	product/business	context.	
•  Driven	by	user	research,	this	time	with	a	view	towards	the	
critical	and	the	uncertain.	
•  Covers	much	more	ground	critical	to	achieving		
problem-solution	fit	(and	product-market	fit,	eventually).	
In Conclusion
If	you	only	have	to	
remember	one	thing…
Building
Contextual Personas
through
Scenario Planning
Jesse	Emmanuel	Rosario	
@jemrosario

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