1. How to Turn the USA into the World's
Biggest PV Market
Jigar Shah
Solar Industry Veteran

2. Attacking Conventional Wisdom
Path to Changing the Electricity Mix
Business Model Implications for Energy
Providers
Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst

3. • Attacking Conventional Wisdom
– Solar Energy is only around because of subsidies – no it is
around because people hate their utility company and want
energy Independence
• Path to Creating 100,000 jobs per year through 2020
– Short term: Universal Access, interconnection & net metering
– Mid term: Change rate tariffs, combine energy efficiency
• Business Model Implications for Energy Providers
– When the individual is cheaper than the collective, the electric
utility model has to change
• Political Will: Converting consistent positive public
opinion into a potent political force

4. Challenge Scenario
• Weak global economy,
need growth engine
• Energy prices shave 1-3%
off Global GDP growth
• Geopolitical concerns lead
to growing view of fossil
fuel supplies –
“Unacceptable Risk”
Political Will
for
Infrastructure
Set up Scenario:

5. Challenge Scenario
• Loss of Local Jobs – town/city
• Small Towns sending $Billions
out of the local economy for
electricity/fuels at a time that
local jobs are desperately
needed
• Local Solutions have gone from
Infancy into their Teenage Years
(solar and energy efficiency)
Political Will
for
Local
Development
through
Government
Facilitation
Set up Scenario:

6. Which is better: Environmental Arguments (Moral)
or Economic Arguments (Jobs, Pocketbook)
• Whereas environmental concerns provoke
only modest immediate concern and change
scenarios
• Economic security create perception of acute
nature of risk – providing significantly
accelerated change
• Electric Utility rate increases and reliability
present a big problem in local communities
Why does this accelerate change?
Political Will

7. Third Industrial Revolution
Democratization of Energy
Distributed Generation
Positive Power Buildings
Next Generation Grid
Smart Grid / Electric Vehicles

8. Job Creation
Solar PV has the largest political support across the board.
Solar does not have NIMBY problems. Solar can specifically
alleviate congestion on local distribution grids and create the
maximum local jobs/economic development
Investment and Job
Creation through 2016
Solar PV Buildings
(Energy
Efficiency)
Next
Generation
Grid
Smart Grid /
Plug-in
Hybrids
Private Sector Investment $200B $200B $200B $200B
Local Job-Years 2,000,000 2,000,000 50,000 100,000
Manufacturing Jobs 100,000 500,000 800,000 1,100,000
Annual Customer Savings $10B $21B $2.3B $2.3B

9. What about Coal and Natural Gas?
• Neither fuel will lead to sustainable job creation
• Natural Gas is a volatile fuel that will continue to be
volatile – particularly if used for electricity
• Coal is under siege and will be destroyed by EPA
and Natural Gas
• Both technologies use significant water resources –
identified by the CIA as the biggest risk to the
Western United States

10. Solar
New Mandates
So…
New Mandates are Created
We must choose a timeframe: 2016
For Mass Adoption of

11. Attacking Conventional Wisdom
Path to Changing the Electricity Mix
Business Model Implications for Energy
Providers
Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst

12. Theory of the Possible
What would it take to
significantly advance
the take up of Solar Electricity
to have a major impact on
US electricity supply?

13. Global Investment in New Renewables ($B)

14. Global Investment in New Renewables ($B)

15. Who is the largest at attracting
Clean Energy Investment?

16. Solar PV Pathway to 2014 Goal
* All advances have already been discovered to achieve above benefits, implementation and optimization through scale is required
Cents
per
Retail
kWh
Total
ownership
cost
Balance of
System
(BOS)
Reliability
2012
goal
O&M
Solar
Panels
Balance
of System/
Installation
Labor
Avg. Retail
Electricity
Price
Cell
Efficiency
17% to 19%
Mfg.
Yield
90%95%
Mfg. Scale
(MWs)
1 2 GW
Silicon
Material
 50%
Installation
Efficiency
Scale/Speed
Solar System Cost Reduction Impacts
O&M
Solar
Panels
BOS/
Install
BOS/
Install

17. 17
Why SunEdison Succeeded in the USA
Commercial electricity prices have, on average, increased 4.76%
each year for the last 8 years. McKinsey another 4%+ for ten
more years raising rates from $0.105/kWh to over $0.15/kWh
Source Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual, DOE/EIA-0348.
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
16.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Energy
(cents/kwh)
New England
Middle Atlantic
Pacific
West South Central
South Atlantic
East North Central
East South Central
Mountain
West North Central
Source: US EIA

18. What is Realistic
By 2013 Solar PV will reach grid parity for 330+ utilities across 30+
States, representing 22% of total electricity sold. Over $80B of solar PV
can be installed without local incentives in 2013.
2012
2015
2020
Area of solar competitiveness
Electricity
Price Rising

19. Government Challenge
• Technology is Mature But…
– Need Securitization to ensure more low cost capital
– Have to phase out our solar tax credit earlier than 2016
– Need Universal Customer Access
– Need to Figure out Utility 2.0 Business Model
Biggest Challenge – Achieving Momentum

20. Public Will
• Familiarity comes from knowing someone that has put
solar on their home, business, school, church, etc.
• Cost breakthrough on the installation side is a function of
local experience/learning curve – need training!
• Technology deployment is a function of perceived return
on investment by Regulators – Solar is still not
considered mainstream by our Political Champions!
• Need to focus on Soft Costs – friction with the permitting,
utility, regulators, etc.
What will it take to drive acceptance?

21. Will it Work? Are we Winning?
Net new capacity additions in the EU

22. Will it Work? Are we Winning?
Net new capacity additions in the USA

23. Advantaged Cost
How do we
Deliver
Customers
Cost Advantage?
We can get to parity in electricity costs…

24. Attacking Conventional Wisdom
Path to Changing the Energy Mix
Business Model Implications for Energy
Providers
Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst

25. What about other Renewables?
• Solar captures the imagination
• Wholesale renewables are driven by RPS, not tax
incentives
• Transmission is a bottleneck to high penetration – after
2016
• Customers want a technology that helps them control
their energy future – solar and energy efficiency
• People want local renewables, not just in the overall
state or country
Implications for Renewables Broadly

26. Electric Power Business
• Solar is taking most profitable customers
• Not paying for their “profit centers”
• Stealing money from them by delaying or eliminating
required utility investment in increased generation,
T&D expansion/maintenance
• Creating a “real” alternative
• Utility does not have the software to handle Utility 2.0
Implications for Power Business

27. Solar Suppliers
• Large well-capitalized companies have
already entered into this new space
• New companies are also well capitalized
• Huge opportunity to create local jobs/local
economic development for Rural America
and Electrical Unions
Summary

28. Risks
• Fight between renewable energy technologies over
tax equity
• Continued Reduction of Installed Cost
– Improving labor productivity
– Sustaining the current cost reduction curve on equipment of
5% per annum through R&D support
Biggest Risks to Scenario:

29. Attacking Conventional Wisdom
Path to Changing the Energy Mix
Business Model Implications for Energy
Providers
Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst

30. Likelihood of Political Will
Weak Global Economy
Energy Inflation Risks
Geopolitical Risks
Drivers of Political Will
Add to this:
Opportunities for
Political and Economic Upside

31. Upside
• What investment could achieve this level of impact?
– America invented solar power, they now perfect solar power
– Large capital investment in our Service Economy
– Union support for this program (IBEW)
– Predictable productivity enhancement matching the gains
Germany and Japan have already made
– Potential for significant emissions reductions
Opportunities for Upside
If you were a US Political Leader
Trying to Inspire your Electorate…

32. Putting it into Perspective

33. Putting it into Perspective