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Prof. George B. Ploubidis - Future of Ageing

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Professor George B. Ploubidis (UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies)'s presentation at Future of Ageing 2023.

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The future of ageing : A cross generational life course perspective
Prof. George B. Ploubidis - Future of Ageing
Prof. George B. Ploubidis - Future of Ageing
 Long term effects of early life circumstances
 Life course determinants of social, economic and health outcomes
 Quality of life, functioning and productivity, post the onset of chronic illness
 Changing experiences of different generations
 External shocks (pandemic, cost of living crisis)
Making long lives better for all through the life course lens
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
National Child Development Study 1958
1970 British Cohort Study
Next Steps (formerly LSYPE)
Millennium Cohort Study
National Study of Health
and Development 1946
Children of the 2020s (COT2020s)
Early Life Cohort Feasibility Study
COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities Study (COSMO)
Prof. George B. Ploubidis - Future of Ageing

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Prof. George B. Ploubidis - Future of Ageing

  • 1. The future of ageing : A cross generational life course perspective
  • 4.  Long term effects of early life circumstances  Life course determinants of social, economic and health outcomes  Quality of life, functioning and productivity, post the onset of chronic illness  Changing experiences of different generations  External shocks (pandemic, cost of living crisis) Making long lives better for all through the life course lens
  • 5. 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 National Child Development Study 1958 1970 British Cohort Study Next Steps (formerly LSYPE) Millennium Cohort Study National Study of Health and Development 1946 Children of the 2020s (COT2020s) Early Life Cohort Feasibility Study COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities Study (COSMO)
  • 8. Early life determinants of mid-life health & mortality
  • 9. Deaths of despair? Early life mental health trajectories and probability of survival
  • 13. Work in progress: not for citation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 ft emp pt emp unem home sick edu other Men: Working life histories by age 55
  • 14. Work in progress: not for citation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 ft emp pt emp unem home sick edu other Women: Working life histories by age 55
  • 15. Employment: Age 55 (2013), 62 (2020) and 63 (2021) Moulton, V. et al, in progress
  • 16. Employment: Age 55 (2013), 62 (2020) and 63 (2021)
  • 17. Employment: Age 55 (2013), 62 (2020) and 63 (2021)
  • 18. Employment: Age 55 (2013), 62 (2020) and 63 (2021) Long term illness Long term illness
  • 22. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 age 23 age 33 age 42 age 50 Real equivalised weekly income 90th centile median 10th centile Net family income across a working lifetime

Editor's Notes

  1. Healthy longevity in the 21st century: A cross generational life course perspective
  2. Before we had studies like these that link across generations – we couldn’t answer even basic questions, about xx & we relied on the narrow world of randomized trials to make causal inferences that now we do with confidence using longitudinal data
  3. Distress levels as high or higher than ever in up to 40 years of follow-up data
  4. Great resignation: Ongoing economic trend in which large numbers of employees have resigned from their jobs
  5. Descriptives, light blue age 55, darker blue age 62 and red age 63 Sample: all those who gave responses on the economic status questions at age 55, 62 and 63 and weighted back to the original NCDS population (excluding those dead, emigrated) At age 55 @77% employed, 3-4% unemployed, 3-4% have already retired, 6% permanently sick /disabled You can see that by age 62 big drop in those employed – 51%,, by age 63 46% and main increase is in retirement 28% and 31% at age 62 and 63 respectively Slight increasing in those permanently sick and reduction in caring responsibilities, but not significant
  6. Descriptives, light blue age 55, darker blue age 62 and red age 63 Sample: all those who gave responses on the economic status questions at age 55, 62 and 63 and weighted back to the original NCDS population (excluding those dead, emigrated) At age 55 @77% employed, 3-4% unemployed, 3-4% have already retired, 6% permanently sick /disabled You can see that by age 62 big drop in those employed – 51%,, by age 63 46% and main increase is in retirement 28% and 31% at age 62 and 63 respectively Slight increasing in those permanently sick and reduction in caring responsibilities, but not significant
  7. Social advantage, early advantaged socioeconomic background, private pensions, owners outright
  8. Descriptives, light blue age 55, darker blue age 62 and red age 63 Sample: all those who gave responses on the economic status questions at age 55, 62 and 63 and weighted back to the original NCDS population (excluding those dead, emigrated) At age 55 @77% employed, 3-4% unemployed, 3-4% have already retired, 6% permanently sick /disabled You can see that by age 62 big drop in those employed – 51%,, by age 63 46% and main increase is in retirement 28% and 31% at age 62 and 63 respectively Slight increasing in those permanently sick and reduction in caring responsibilities, but not significant
  9. Check available for those 40 to 74. Arguably since 1/3 has multimorbidity at 46 – 48, it could be offered earlier in future generations (35?)
  10. Trends for women Women’s work histories follow much different patterns, largely due to family responsibilities. Once again, the majority of women have been employed since their late teens. But the shape of the green shows the percentage of women staying home. It increases around the time most cohort members had young children at home. Most of the cohort (over 60%) were married by the time they reached their late 20s or early 30s and have stayed married. Relationship histories for the rest of the cohort are quite varied. Around 11-12% of the cohort have never married or cohabitated. Once again, unemployment (red) was highest in the early 1980s, and sickness (purple) is putting a growing number of the cohort women out of work as they age.
  11. Long view for the common good and thank you slide