Systems Dynamics Modelling for BAs

•

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IIBA UK Chapter

Business

Agenda
• How I knew about System Dynamics (SD)

• Introduction to SD

• Case Study

How I knew about System Dynamics (SD)
1994 – Started working at Arthur Andersen Business Consulting Practice

– In one of the many training activities, we were introduced to

Event-oriented view of the world

Goals

Problem Decision Results

Situation

Decisions

Goals

Environment

Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions,

Decisions

Side
Goals
Effects

Environment

Goals of
Other
Agents Actions of
Others
but also triggering side effects, delayed reactions, changes
in goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may
lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies.

How I knew about System Dynamics (SD)
1997 – MBA, Course on System Dynamics Modelling

2000 – Ph.D., London Business School
System Dynamics Modelling and Strategy

2003 – Project in Marketing

2005 – Project in Workforce Planning

2007 – Project in Supply Chain Redesign
– Wine Tourism in Chile – Marketing

2010 – Pharmaceutical Industry – Pricing and Competition

Introduction to SD
• Two main components:

• Feedback is one of the two main concepts of
system dynamics theory.

• Stocks and Flows are the second central concept
of system dynamics theory.

Introduction to SD
If your audience was confused by

-

Market Unit
Share Costs

you might make the intermediate concepts explicit as follows:

+ Production + Cumulative
Production
Volume -
Experience
Market Unit
Share Costs

Introduction to SD
Customer
Base
Delay

Customer Service
Satisfaction Requests

Service
Quality

Service Adequacy
Resources of Service

Delay

Dynamics of Multiple-Loop Systems

Word of
Clients
Clients Clients
Mouth
losses

Sketch a graph showing the behaviour of the number of clients
over time.

Introduction to SD
• Claims unsolved, new claims, claims solved

• Employees, hiring, retiring

Case Study: Workforce Planning
Kunc, M. 2008. Achieving a balanced
organizational structure in professional
services firms: Some lessons from a modeling
project. System Dynamics Review, 24 (2): 119–
143

Questions???
martin.kunc@managingyourcomplexity.co.uk / martin.kunc@wbs.ac.uk

Thank you

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Systems Dynamics Modelling for BAs

1. System Dynamics Modelling for Business Analysts IIBA UK Event – Barclays, Westwood Park Martin Kunc Managing Complexity Ltd / Warwick Business School

2. Agenda • How I knew about System Dynamics (SD) • Introduction to SD • Case Study

3. How I knew about System Dynamics (SD) 1994 – Started working at Arthur Andersen Business Consulting Practice – In one of the many training activities, we were introduced to

4. An Event-Oriented View of Problems

5. Event-oriented view of the world Goals Problem Decision Results Situation

6. Decisions Goals Environment Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions, Decisions Side Goals Effects Environment Goals of Other Agents Actions of Others but also triggering side effects, delayed reactions, changes in goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies.

7. A System Thinking View of Problems

8. How I knew about System Dynamics (SD) 1997 – MBA, Course on System Dynamics Modelling 2000 – Ph.D., London Business School System Dynamics Modelling and Strategy 2003 – Project in Marketing 2005 – Project in Workforce Planning 2007 – Project in Supply Chain Redesign – Wine Tourism in Chile – Marketing 2010 – Pharmaceutical Industry – Pricing and Competition

9. Introduction to SD • Two main components: • Feedback is one of the two main concepts of system dynamics theory. • Stocks and Flows are the second central concept of system dynamics theory.

10. Introduction to SD If your audience was confused by - Market Unit Share Costs you might make the intermediate concepts explicit as follows: + Production + Cumulative Production Volume - Experience Market Unit Share Costs

11. Introduction to SD

12. Introduction to SD Customer Base Delay Customer Service Satisfaction Requests Service Quality Service Adequacy Resources of Service Delay

13. Dynamics of Multiple-Loop Systems Word of Clients Clients Clients Mouth losses Sketch a graph showing the behaviour of the number of clients over time.

14. Introduction to SD • Claims unsolved, new claims, claims solved • Employees, hiring, retiring

15. new claims claims solved

16. 500 new claims claims solved 0

17. Introduction to SD - Modelling

18. Introduction to SD - Modelling

19. Case Study: Workforce Planning Kunc, M. 2008. Achieving a balanced organizational structure in professional services firms: Some lessons from a modeling project. System Dynamics Review, 24 (2): 119– 143

20. Case Study: Workforce Planning

21. Case Study: Workforce Planning

22. Case Study: Workforce Planning

23. Case Study: Workforce Planning

24. Case Study: Workforce Planning

25. Questions??? martin.kunc@managingyourcomplexity.co.uk / martin.kunc@wbs.ac.uk Thank you