The document discusses several topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on human population and the environment. It suggests that the coronavirus outbreak may be acting as a limiting factor to control the overgrown human population. It also talks about dividing areas into different risk categories based on exposure, vulnerability and economic impact to determine appropriate response measures. Finally, it proposes developing a mid-term action plan after risk categorization and short-term observation after easing lockdown restrictions.

1. A NON DOCTOR’S APPROACH TO CORONA 2
2nd part

2. Gratitude to Discussion in NDTV anchored by
Prannoy Roy
• Gratitude to the delegates
• Dr Prof Amartya Sen, Nobel laurite
• Dr. Prof Avijeet Banerjee , Nobel Laurite
• Dr. Prof Esthar Duflo( Banerjee )
• Dr. Prof Amit Suri
• Dr. Subramannyam ( Ex Econ Advisor to GoI)
• Dr. Prof Koushik Basu (ex chief econ world bank)
• CISCO chief
Their valued discussion motivated me for the second and
following other parts to write with corrections .
Regards

3. Whether corona outbreak is acting as a
limiting factor to human population ?
• Human population grown over 8billion by 2020
• Whether the supportive carrying capacity of
earth is now into self regulating mode
• Is corona virus outbreak is only acting as a
limiting factor to the overgrown human
population and overexploitation of natural
resources ?
• Should we enter into complete sustainability
mode and no trade off between today's mortality
by virus and tomorrows' mortality of our
offspring's by famine etc other limiting factors ?

4. Population, Limiting factors and carrying
capacity a normal ecological phenomenon
• Any population growth including human
population is determined by different limiting
factors .
• Mortality and natality rates are limited by
environmental factors which may be called
limiting factors to the population.
• This happens only to make the species more
feasible to live with enough resources and to
keep other species live . Live and let live policy of
mother nature.

5. Human life curve normal where more or less they experience a
convex life expectancy
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4
Series 1
Series 2
Series 3

6. Should we first stop our struggle to
win and this is the way to win ?
• As corona virus may be a limiting factor to human
population , vis a vis more trial to fight without
information may turn exposed population to
susceptible as the population density increase at
a definite geographic area. And density per unit
area is itself a limiting factor to population.
• Here a question arise, do we have enough data
about the potential susceptible or exposed
population ?

7. Does lock down acted effective ?
• Yes for only short term measurement.
• In mid term measurement we must have enough
data of vulnerable, exposed, consequences and
fall back measurement/ critical path
measurement and economic viability.
• In long term measurement we must understand
our economic future, environmental impact and
long term consequences, famine potential, other
disease outbreaks related to malnutrition and
famine like tuberculosis , hepato-splenomegaly,
anemia , cholera , death due to starvation.

8. For mid term measurement we may make a zone division through
group risk model or risk categorization (creating options of actions )
EXPOSURE WILL BE SAME CAT 3 ALL along due to lack of dataExposure/susceptibility
Vulnerability
Short and long term environmental impacts
Economicimpact

9. category
• Vulnarability –category 4 (Homeless/ Marginally poor
)/ neglegence to focus other critical illness.
• Category 3 – jobless all members of family / one or more
member of family critically ill and high medical cost
already incurred / failure of trickle down effect of subsidy
& other econ. Measurers. Freedom of press &
Expression.
• Category 2 – Historically unprivileged Like (SC/ ST)/
members of family mostly uneducated/ only woman
earning family less than Rs 400/day.
• Category 1 -Potential jobless/ business failure / affected
farmers (earning below Rs 400per day )/ draught – flood
prone area

10. Economic impact and long term consequences
• Category 4 – Directly affected by lockdown, capital loss
completely , no insurance covered / micro and small scale
industries/ industries related to farming like sickle benders,
plough makers etc due to primary demand downfall
• Category 3 – Industries dependent on purchasing power of
local buyers like wearable's and stitching, food stall owners,
non essential goods making micro and small scale industries .
• Category 2 – farms dependent on foreign orders and projects
like IT and BPO industry . Banking (As nobody will likely to take
small, credits due to uncertain market)
• Category 1- Involvement of % GDP (possibly 5%) ie. Rs. 7 lac
crores and allocation mistake / PDS effectivity / devaluation of
INR

11. Environmental impact and long term consequences
• Category 4- overexploitation of resources leading to another
limiting factor like famine / disease outbreak/ excessive
pollution
• Category 3 – trade off with sustainability and overexploitation
of natural resources affecting near future generation and very
very alarming growth rate of climate change/ erratic climates
if not disaster like earthquake due to rigging and over mining
and vibrations affecting local bed rocks
• Category 2 – immediate loss of potable water , both surface
and ground water due to over exploitation during recovery
mode .
• Category 1 - Encroaching forest lands to get more croplands
and habitat loss of other species / loss of ecological balance.

12. This is not the end
• Lot of other factors should be included by specialists
like we hav’nt took the success and failure of trickle
down effect of subsidy, fiscal and other economic
measures . Freedom of press and information,
allocation of resources, trade off between today and
tomorrow etc which will take single other chapters to
discuss
• The interdisciplinary specialists involvement in each
phase , and keeping aside of mind public servants are
rulers by colonial legacy and actually overburden to
countries like India.
• Perfect statistics

13. For mid term measurement, after zone identification we may approach with
another group opportunity threat model this may tell our risk perception and
face ability this is for options to mitigate and act
Economicviability
Technologicalviability
Trade off with future resources
Risk category determined before

14. This may be called as action plan
• According to risk category we shall categorize
this action taking plan in next discussion and
definitely observing few days after opening
the market. As this will be mid term action
plan. Long term action plan and fall back or
critical paths will be designed accordingly.