Retail and Brand Transformations - What does it mean for China ?

The Retail and Brands Transformations
in European Consumers History
-Conclusions for China
欧洲历史上的零售和品牌变迁
-对中国的启示
Merkel, Helmut Prof. Dr.
helmut.merkel@prologue-asia-pacific.com
hmerkel@mail.uni-mannheim.de

1

Summary 摘要 (1/2)
Department Stores, Malls and their specialized Retailers, Hypermarkets
and Big Box Chain Stores build a huge world wide Supply System with
more than 30 Trn. USD Turnover. The western world had 150 years for
three Transformations, in China these Transformations happened within
35 years.
.在世界范围内，百货商店、大型购物中心、专门品类零售商、综合超市和
大卖场等构成了一个年营业额 30万亿美元的巨大的供应体系。在西方世界
近150年来的零售历史上发生了3次重大的变革。而中国，这些变革在最近
的35年中发生。
In the last Transformation period, Brands became Retailers and eCommerce (B2C/B2B) arrived and forces Retailers to set up MultiChannel Strategies.
在最近的一次变革中，品牌商变为了零售商，加上电子商务(B2C/B2B) 的
到来，这些变化迫使零售商建立多渠道战略。

2

Summary 摘要 (2/2)
In China, most of the local Retailers and Brands are located in the mid
levels of the Malsow Hierarchy of Needs, with increasing competition by
Real Estate driven Retail Expansion. They way out of the middle leads
to new (new in China) Discount Formats and more upgraded Brands.
在中国，随着商业地产的发展，零售业得到了极大的发展。大部分的本
土零售商和品牌都是处在马斯洛需求层次的中间层次。他们现在正在开
始朝着新的（对中国来说较新）折扣模式和更高层次品牌进发。
The Retail potential of the Chinese Market is not comparable with no
other market. But the danger of the “Middle” will also speed up
consolidation.
中国零售市场的巨大潜力是无与伦比的。但是这种处在需求层次中间层
次的状态会面临整合的危险。

3

Summary
概要
1Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
马斯洛需要层次理论
2First Transformation: 19th. /20th. Century
第一次变革：19-20世纪之交
3Second Transformation: 1945 – 1995
第二次变革：1945-1995
4Third Transformation: 1995 – today
第三次变革：1995至今
5Conclusion for Retail and Brands in China
对中国零售商和品牌商的启示

4

Introduction
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China has 1.4 Bn citizens, 51% live in cities, average age is 29 years –
Europe has 502 Mn citizens, 37% live in cities, average age is close to 40
years. The US have 313 Mn citizens, 82% live in cities, average age is 37
years.
中国有14亿人口，51%住在城市，平均年龄是29岁；欧洲有5.02亿人口，
37%住在城市，平均年龄接近40岁；美国有3.13亿人口，82%住在城市，
平均年龄是37岁。
The GDP in China grew in 2012 with 7.8% - Outlook for most European
Countries is between -5% (Greece) and +1% (Germany). The GDP of the
USA grew by 2.2% (2013 est. 1,8%)
中国的GDP在2012年增长7.8%，欧洲多数国家预期是在-5%（希腊）和+
1%（德国）之间。美国的GDP增长了2.2%(2013年大约为
年大约为1.8%)
年大约为
The Chinese GDP in 2012 counts for 11% of the world GDP of 72 Trn
USD, Europe (27 States) counts for 24%, the US counts for 21,6%. China
is the 2nd largest Economy in the world.
2012年中国的GDP占世界GDP总量72万亿美元的11%，欧洲（27个国家占
24%，美国为21.6%。中国成为世界上第二大经济体。
The GDP per citizen (Productivity) in Europe is 32.600 USD in China it is
about 5.900 USD, which shows the potential. The GDP per citizen in the
US actually is about USD51.000
欧洲的城市人均GDP(生产力)是32.600美元，在中国约为5.900美元，这表
明是有潜力的。人均生产总值在美国是51.056,46。
5

Introduction

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Consumption as a ratio of the GDP in Europe is 40-60% (Germany
57,8%), in China it is 41,2%. Consumption ratio in USA is 72%
(share World: 26%)
消费作为国内生产总值的比例在欧洲是40-60%（德国57.,8%），而在
中国这是41,2%。在美国消费比率是72%(世界水平:26%)
In China, the disposable income in urban areas is significantly higher
than in rural areas – which makes cities more attractive
在中国，可支配收入在城市地区明显高于农村地区——这让城市更有
吸引力
Inflation (CPI) in China is targeted with 3.5% for 2013, in Europe it is
between 0% - 2% for different countries, USA is estimated 1,83%
2013年，中国通货膨胀（CPI）的目标是为3.5%，在欧洲不同的国家
处于0%-2%之间，美国是大约为1.83%。

6

Introduction

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The Maslow Hierarchy of Needs explains, how Needs develop from Basics to
high self focused desires: Basic needs, Safety needs,
Social needs, Individual needs, Self-actualization needs,
马斯洛的需要层次理论说明，“需要”如何从最基本需要的发展到高自我关注与
期望：基本需要、安全需要、社会需要、个人需要、自我实现的需要。
In a developing society, people have more and more opportunities to climb up the
hierarchy of needs – the needs develop into demands
在一个发展的社会中，人们有越来越多的机会提升需要层次——需要发展为需求。
Demand in developed society has the structure: ME (myself), MY HOME,
MY HEALTH, MY FAMILY, MY LEISURE.
在发达社会中，需求的构成是：我（自己）、我的家、我的健康、我的家庭、我
的休闲。

7

1-

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

In a developing society, the Spending for food is
high, Luxury is low. In a highly developed Society,
spending for food is relatively low, Individual and
Personal needs become more important.
在发展中的国家，食品消费高，奢侈品较少。在一
个高度发达的国家，消费食品相对较低，个人需求
变得越来越重要。

Another dimension is the age
structure of the society: young
people have other needs then
mature citizens
另一个维度是社会的年龄结构：年
轻人相对于成年人要有更多的需要。
Personal fulfilment
自我实现

Individual needs
个人需求
Social needs
社会需要
Safety needs
安全需要
Basic needs
基本需要

Maslow Hierarchy of Needs, Picture: 2009 Wikipedia
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Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs马斯洛需要层次理论
How needs become “Demand”需要如何变成需求。

MY HOME

MY FAMILY

ME

MY HEALTH

MY LEISSURE

Derived from the requirements and purchasing behaviour of any “Established” customer segment
9

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How needs become “Demand”需要如何变成需求。

马斯洛需求层次

我
我的健康
我的家
我的家庭和朋友
我的休闲和旅行

M
aslow
Hierarchyof
Needs

Level (1)

Level (2)

Level (3)

Level (4)

Level (5)

M
e
HH
y ealth
MH e
y om
M Fam
y ily/
Friends
M Leissure/
y
Travel

X
X
X

X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X

X

X

X

10

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Me/My Family: Food related products:
我/我的家庭：食品相关产品
Me/My Family/Leisure: Restaurants
我/我的家庭/休闲：餐馆
Me: Fashion products,Lifestyle Groups:
我：时尚产品、生活方式
Me: Health, Cosmetics:
我：健康，化妆品
Me: Sports
我：运动
My Home: Furniture, Garden, Decoration:
我的家：家具、园艺、装饰
Me/My Family/Friends: Gifts, Presents:
我/我的家庭/朋友：礼品
Me/My Family/Friends: Jewelry, Accessories
我/我的家庭/朋友：珠宝
Me/My Family/Friends: Entertainment, Music,
Opera, Concerts:
我/我的家庭/朋友：娱乐、音乐、歌剧、音乐会

from Level (1) to Level (5)


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Brand Directory of a Mall: 60% - 70% of all Brands are serving “ME”
一个购物中心的品牌目录：60% - 70%的所有品牌都是以“我”为中心的商品
Fashion 时装

Beauty 美容
Jewelry珠宝

Arts, Gifts
艺术礼品
Cinema
影院
Service
服务

Food &
食物和饮料
Beverages

12

1-

The “Magazine” concept, reflects the same idea
“杂志”的概念，反映了同样的想法

13

1-

Economy
经济

2010年，国内生产总值是4.3万亿美元。私人消费（1.55万亿）大约是GDP
的35.8%而蒙古是54%。2012年，预计私人消费为3.33万亿美元，而2012
年的GDP预计为8万亿美元。这个比率将提高到41.2%

The GDP in 2010 was 4,3 trn USD. Private Consumption (trn 1.55) is about
35,8 % of the GDP compared with 54% in GER. Private Consumption for 2012 is estimated at
3.33 trn USD, the GDP in 2012 is estimated about 8 trn USD. The ratio improved to 41.2%
=36% of 4.3 Trn

必须

食物
服装
卫生保健

半必须
家庭日用产品与服务
住房和公共设施
私人物品
娱乐设施
娱乐和文化服务

非必须

教育
运输
通信

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1-

Economy
经济

Food and Apparel as major Markets
食品和服装是主要市场

China (Bn USD)

Europe (27) (Bn USD)

Food食品

916,88 (27%)

2,239.48 (24%)

3,630.55 (25.3%)

Apparel 服装

157,3 (4.7%)

559,87 (6%)

789,2

Total Retail 总零售额 3,333.54
GDP (2012)

8,939

USA

USA 9,331.2

14,350.0

17,266

(5.5%)

16,724

http://ycharts.com/indicators/retail_sales

15

1-

中国奢侈品消费的动力

地位身份

个人嗜好

满意

产品外观

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1-


The Luxury Market 2012 will grow about 7% worldwide to more than 200 Bn Euro.
Chinese Customers have a share of about 20%. Not included: Cars, Yachts, Airplanes
2012年，奢侈品市场将增长约为7%，全球超过2000亿欧元。中国消费者约占20%的份
额。不包括：汽车、游艇、飞机。
2010 2011 2012
Bn Euro 9.6
12.9
Hong Kong & Macau
Bought Outside Greater China
Bn Euro

16.8
8.0
15.0
39.8 R=1.26%

R=1.39%
Source: Bain "Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory“, Distribution by Country

世界各国的奢侈品消费情况
17

1-


Quelle: McKinsey, Meet the 2020 Chinese Consumer
18

1-

The POST 80’s and 90’s are already the most attractive consumers
80年和90年以后出生的人群的已经是最具吸引力的消费者
Male
Female

340 Mn

377 Mn

Quelle: TUI Report: Neue Chinesische Touristen in Europa 2017+

19

男
女

1-

Maslow Hierarchy of Needs
中国经济的结构（按地区）

小

中

大

Mc Kinseys Macro Economic Model of China (2010) shows
22 regional Clusters, which represent 92% of the GDP.
麦肯锡中国宏观经济模型(2010)显示22个区域集群,这代表
国内生产总值的92%。
Nearly 50% of the population
lives in urban areas
近50%的人口居住在城市地区。

Source: Mc Kinsey

20

Summary
概要
第二次变革：1945-1995

21

2-

First Transformation 19th./20th. Century
Beginning Industrialization in 1830-1950 leads to a rural Exodus
1830-1950年开始的工业革命导致了农村人口流向城市
-

Cities grew immensely
城市迅速发展
Family structures broke up
家庭的结构被破坏
Environment was heavily
Polluted
环境被严重污染
Drinking Water problems
饮用水污染
Food supply became critical in many
areas
食品的供应在众多地区变得困难

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrialisierung City of Barmen德国城市巴门

Retail as an organized Supply did not exist.
但是零售作为一种有组织的体系还没有出现
-Small Workshops, Bakeries, Butchers, Carpenters ,Farmers, were the backbone of
Supply
-小的手工作坊，面包店、屠夫、木匠、农民是供应的主力

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2-

Revolution in Retail: Harrods (1834) was found in London
零售的革命：哈罗兹 1834年在伦敦成立

http://www.tschoepe.de/auktion47/auktion47_england.htm

Multi Brand: “One-Stop-Shopping” was invented. Harrods was owner of all sold
Merchandise
多品牌：“一站式购物”产生了。哈罗兹是典型的买手制
23

2-

Printemps 1865, Paris
巴黎春天 1865，巴黎

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil
e:Printemps_haussmann1.JPG

Galeries Lafayette 1899, Paris
老佛爷百货，1899，巴黎

Emille Zola, a French novelist wrote this book in 1884. He
discovered the new dimension of “Supply”, which is no longer
only feeding “needs” he described the “shopping” as a new
temptations for ladies, with a big risk. He is warning the
society, Ladies are “lost” victims of this temptations, they will
not be able to resist the new world of the Department Stores.
Purely Fascination.
在埃米尔的小说中他描述了1884年欧洲的第一次零售变革：他
描述了新的供应形式，不仅仅是满足需要。在“女士的天堂”
中他描述了新投资的百货商店。那是一个充满诱惑和危险的地
方，女士们身陷其中。百货店有巨大魅力，女人们难以抗拒。
24

2-

La Rinascente 1865, Milano
文艺复兴百货店，1865 米兰

Karstadt 1871, Wismar (Germany)
卡斯达特 1871,维斯马，德国

The new Department Store Companies build up Chain Stores in all major cities. In 1930
Karstadt already had 30 Chain Stores.
新的百货公司在所有的大城市中建立了连锁店，1930年卡斯达特已经有30家连锁店了。
The new Business was “Retail driven”. The enterpreneurs bought the land, and then they
build the Stores. The Real Estate was always property of the Retailer
这种新的商业是“零售驱动”。创业者们买地然后建店。地产所有权属于零售商。.
The new Business was also “vertical”, the companies owned factories and farms to secure
the supply.
这种新的商业模式是“垂直的”，公司拥有工厂和农场来保证供给。
25

2-


1880, the first Mall was
invented in Milano, Italy:
Galleria Vittorio Emanuele.
A number of independent
workshops opened their
stores in this “Galleria”. The
format was not discovered,
yet – the Department Stores
were the first Choice.
1880，世界第一个购物中心
艾曼纽购物中心在意大利米兰
艾曼纽购物中心
诞生。一些独立的作坊在这里
开业。那时这种模式的优势还
没有充分发挥出来，百货店仍
然是第一选择

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Brogi,_Giacomo_%281822-1881%29__n._4608_-_Milano_-_Ottagono_della_Galleria_Vittorio_Emanuele_ca._1880.jpg

26

2-


1853 The first food Supply Chain
(Association of Merchants) was found in
Switzerland: CO-OP
1853，最早的食品供应链（商人协会）在瑞
士诞生，合作社

http://www.almirante23.net/postales/ferias_mercadillos/ferias_
mercadillos_04.htm

1897 The GERMAN Food Supply Chain
Cooperation (Association of Merchants) was
found in GERMANY: EDEKA
1897年德国食品供应链协作体（商人的协会
）在德国诞生EDEKA

http://www.edekagruppe.de/Unternehmen/media/de/edeka_nor
d/dokumente_4/geschichtsdaten.pdf

27

2-

1837, The Hermes Brothers found their
Workshop in Paris to produce leather bags,
Horse saddles and travel accessories.
They had Boutique style Stores and used
Department Stores for their sales
1837年爱马仕兄弟在巴黎创建了他们作坊，
做皮包、马鞍和旅行用品。他们拥有精品店风
格的商店并且把百货商店作为销售渠道。
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Herm%C3%A8s-1923.jpg

1857, Louis Vuitton was found as a
workshop to produce handmade luggage for
travelers.
The Workshop had few Boutique style Stores
in Prime locations (Champs Elysee) and
used Department Stores as Sales Channel
1857，路易斯威登作为手工制作旅行箱的作
坊诞生了。他们在香榭丽舍等热门地点建立了
精品店，同时也在百货店里销售。
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Famille-Vuitton_1888.jpg

28

2-


http://watchwiki.org/index.php?title=Datei:Patek_Philippe_Postkarte.jpg

1780, Breguet was found in Switzerland
(today Swatch Group)
1839, Patek-Philippe was found as a
watchmaker workshop in Geneva by two Polish
immigrants and the Noble Count Patek.
1845, Glashuette was found in Germany
(today Swatch Group)
1780年瑞士宝玑公司成立（今天Swatch 集团）
1839年百达翡丽公司在日内瓦由两位波兰移民创
立
1845年格拉苏蒂在德国成立（今天Swatch集团）

1913, Prada was found in Milano as a
workshop for shoes and handbags for the royal
court. Their first Store was in “Galleria Vittorio
Emanuele”
1913年，普拉达在米兰成立，当时是为皇室做
鞋和手袋。他们最早的店开在艾曼纽购物中心
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Prada_corporate_logo.png

29

1-


1921, Gucci was found as a tack workshop
(Leather) in Florence, Italy.
1921年，古琦在意大利的佛罗伦撒成立，专做
皮革和铆钉

http://typischich.at/home/mode/designer/748410/GuccioGucci

1906, Montblanc was found as writing tools
workshop in Hamburg/Germany
1906年，万宝龙在德国汉堡成立，专卖书写用
品
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Feder_Fueller.JPG

30

Summary
概要
第二次变革：1945-1995

31

3-

Second Transformation 1945-1995
第二次变革 1945-1995

http://www.lonesentry.com/unithistory/23rd-infantry/

https://www.in-die-zukunft-gedacht.de/de/page/68/epochenabschnitt/27/dokument/570/epochen.html

http://www.anicursor.com/colpicwar.html

During the period of two world wars
and the world economic crisis there
was not much room for innovation in
Retail. The focus was industry and
supply for the lower levels of the
Maslow Hierarchy of Needs.
在两次世界大战和全世界的经济危机
期间，零售的创新空间很小。生产商
和供应商们都关注于满足马斯洛模型
中的基础需求
32

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
Chain Store Companies连锁商店
After World War II, many Entrepreneurs saw the big gap between supply/demand in
all Markets. Many of them started to have stores before World War II already, but
now took the opportunity to expand. Also former Manufacturers, who start to have
retail stores now.
二战之后，很多的企业家意识到了几乎在所有市场都存在供应和需求之间的巨大差
距。很多人二战前就开店，但是没有机会扩张。还有很多生产商开始涉足零售。

1880

1946

1970

1858

1848

1919

1969

1910

1945

Bestseller Group
1976

1857, Hong Kong

1913

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3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
The Invention of Malls 购物中心的诞生
The Southdale Shopping Center 1956, USA
南谷购物中心 1956 美国

The Kalamazzoo Mall, 1959
卡拉马祖购物中心，1959

Viktor Gruen, 1806, born in Vienna, built the first Shopping Malls in the USA. The new
Invention became a breakthrough in Retail. His idea was to create “Destinations” to bring
all consumers together to the Retailers, which occupy space downtown or in a Shopping
Center. Different from the Department Stores: they are Real Estate Companies, who
invite Retailers to operate their stores in such a center.
Viktor Gruen1806年在维也纳出生，他在美国建立了第一个购物中心。这是零售业的突破性
变革。他是想在市中心或者是购物中心中设立一个所有消费者的“目的地”。和百货店不
他
同的是，购物中心是一个地产商，让零售商在这里开店。

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
The Invention of Hypermarkets 大型综合超市的诞生
1950, Sam Walton found todays
“Walmart” which is now a food
related Hyper Market Retail format
and the biggest Company of the
World: Sales Turnover 428 Bn USD
in 2012.
1950年，山姆沃尔顿建立了沃尔玛，
这是世界上最大的食品公司，2012年
销售额4280亿美元

1959, found as Hypermarket Format
in France by Marcel Fournier
together with Denis Defforey and
Jacques Defforey. Today the second
largest Retail Company of the World.
1959年， Marcel Fournier、Denis
Defforey和Jacques Defforey在法国.
创立家乐福。现在是世界上第二大的
零售企业

35

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
The Invention of the Big Box Format and Discount Operators大卖场和折扣店的诞生
1943, found by Ingvar Kamprad in
Sweden, today based in the
Netherlands. Sales Turnover in 2012
about 30 Bn Euro, Profit 10%
1943年，宜家公司由Ingvar
Kamprad 在瑞典创立，现在总部在
荷兰。2012年销售额300亿欧元，利
润10%
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:IKEA_Koblenz.jpg

DIY = Do It Yourself <-> 自己动手

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Heidelberg_Bauhaus_20101011.jpg

1960, found by Heinz-Georg Baus.
One of the biggest DIY Stores in
Europe now.
1960年这家公司由Heinz-Georg
Baus创立，现在是欧洲最大的DIY商
店
DIY Stores are often combined with
Garden Centre, a big Market in
Europe and in the USA.
DIY商店总是和花卉商店在一起，是
美国的一家大型商家
36

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
- Special Format Food Retailers are a driving Force in expansion and in
competition in Europe
在欧洲，专门的食品零售商是零售业扩张和竞争的主要驱动力。

The four names account for 260 Bn USD Sales, with about 50 Bn non-food
这4名占2600亿美元销售额，其中只有大约500亿非食品销售额。
37

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
-

Department Stores lost their attraction as “Destinations” against Malls and
Special Retail formats
相对于购物中心和专门店，百货商店失去了它作为“目的地”的吸引力。

Media Market and Best Buy withdrew from the Chinese Market
万博城和百思买正在撤出中国市场。

38

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
- Latest Trends最新的趋势
PRIMARK shocks the established Fashion retailers with price and assortment
PRIMARK利用价格和分类使现有时尚零售商感到惊讶。

39

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
Brands as
Suppliers

Product 产品类
Category
Food食品

Department
Stores百货店

Small Box
Chain Stores
小型连锁

Supermarket
超级市场

BHG Marketplace
REWE, EDEKA

Malls*)
购物中心
Supermarket
超级市场

Clothing/
Fashion服装

Shop

H&M, C&A,GAP
UNIQLO, INDITEX

Store

Shoes鞋

Shop

Nine West, Belle

Shop

周大福, Coach

Shop

Douglas, Sephora
Watsons, 全家

Store

Outdoor/Sports户外

Shop

Lidl

Lotus, RT Mart

Store

Drugstores
Cosmetics药店/化妆品

ALDI

Store

Jewelry, Bags珠宝箱包

Big Box
Chain Stores
大卖场

Columbia, Adidas,

Furniture Living 家具

Hyper Markets
综合超市

Garden Center
DIY园艺中心

Big Box
Chain Stores
大卖场

Store
Anker
Anker

PRIMARK

Hyper Markets
综合超市
Supermarket
超级市场

WALMART
Carrefour
TESCO
METRO

WALLGREEN

DECLATHON
IKEA, Lutz XXL
BAUHAUS,
B&Q
HOME DEPOT

Electronics电器
Office/Computer

Shop

EP Partner

Office Depot
Office Max

Electronics电器
Household

Shop

Haier, Electrolux

BEST BUY,
SUNING, GOME

*) Outlet Mall, Strip Center, Luxury Mall, Value Added Mall, Factory Outlet Mall
折扣购物中心，沿街购物中心，奢侈品购物中心，增值购物中心，工厂店购物中心

40

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
- European and American Retailers are Global Players
- 欧洲和美国的零售商是全球玩家
Five of the top 100 Retailers worldwide, are European Retailers
在世界范围内，100强零售商中有5名是欧洲的零售商
2011年最大的10家零售企业
排名公司名
国别

零售收入

零售增长

净利率资产回报率

国家数海外市场贡献率

Deloitte & Touch
41

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
Food drives Retail !
食品驱动零售！
2011年最大的250家零售企业收入的来源分类

Food & daily used producst
食品和日常用品

时尚

快消品

Source: Deloitte&Touch

电器,家居,运动,休闲其他
42

3-

第二次变革 1945-1995
Why are food-related Retail formats growing faster ?
为什么食品相关的零售发展更快？
shopping 1 – 2 x per week

每周1-2次

shopping 2 – 3 x per week

每周2-3次

no regular shopping pattern 没有固定模式

Food Retail customers are extremely frequent and loyal
shoppers:
食品零售客户是非常频繁和忠诚的顾客:
The return about 150 times a year, Fashion shoppers return 2030 times
食品顾客每年购物150次,时装购物每年20 – 30次
Shoe shoppers return 4-8 times per year
鞋购物者每年购买4 – 8次
continuously shopping in the same store
changing store sometimes

持续购物
有时换商家
总是在换商家

always changing the store

Source: GFK

43

Summary
概要
第二次变革：1945-1995

44

4-

Third Transformation: 1995 - today
In the Third Transformation Period 1995 – today - we see two major new
Developments. Brands who used to run Shops in Department Stores, start to
build up there own Retail Stores in Competition to the Existing Channels.
1995年至今的第三次变革中我们看到了两个主要的变化。一是，原来在百货店
里出售的品牌商们开始设立自己的独立销售店面来和现有渠道竞争
We can see this picture as Mono Brand Store Phenomen in China. When the
Brands entered the Chinese Market they set up their own Retail.
我们在中国也看到了很多品牌设立自己的单品牌店
The second new development since 1995 is e-commerce or Online Shopping,
as a result of the rapid expansion of the World-Wide-Web. Amazon, e-bay in
the Western World, Tabao … gain market share from the established retail.
第二种变化是电子商务或者在线零售的出现。亚马逊等在西方国家，淘宝在国内
和传统零售竞争
At the same time the traditional Department Store business came under
pressure and some of the traditional Mail-order companies disappeared.
同时，传统百货店经受了非常大的压力，一些邮寄零售商消失。
45

4-


In China, e-commerce is about 5% of Total retail sales. In Germany the
figure is about 12%. E-Commerce is a significant channel, which is a
thread already for all existing retail channels.
在中国，电子商务占零售总额的5%。在德国这个数字大约是12%。电
子商务是一个重要的渠道，这已经成为所有现存的零售渠道的威胁。
46

4-

2013年3季度中国BTOC市场份额

淘宝
京东
苏宁
QQ商城
亚马逊中国
51buy
当当
唯品会
国美
一号店
凡客
其他

47

4-


48

4-

These Brands became Retailers 以下品牌商成为了零售商
A Brand/Retail Company with nearly 30
Bn. Euro turnover/sales in 2012 and
15% profit. Branches: Fashion,
Cosmetics, Jewelry, Beverages
(Moet,...). Worldwide about 800 Stores
2012年该商家的销售额是300亿欧元，
15%的利润率，世界范围内有800家店，
经营时尚，化妆品，珠宝,饮品
Apple. A Manufacturer of Computers and
later Smartphones. Today with a
turnover of about 170 Bn USD and no
own manufacturing anymore. About 500
Stores worldwide and another 5000
Shops or Point of Sales in Department
Stores or Telecom Stores.
苹果是电脑和智能手机制造商。但是今天
他不再是生产商，营业额是1700欧元。
全世界有500家店，另外还在商场里有
49
5000个销售点

4-

A Manufacturer of Uniforms in World War
II. About 2.5 Bn Euro Sales Turnover in
2012.
About 600 Retail Stores worldwide and
another 1000 Shops in Department Stores.
二战期间是制服的生产商，2012年的销售
额是25亿欧元。全世界有600家店，在百货
店中拥有1000个销售点
Youngor Group, Ningbo. Found 1979 as
Garment manufacturer. Largest national
vertical Apparel Company with 2000
Outlets and 35 Bn RMB Sales Turnover.
The Transformation in China is even faster
than in Europe and in the USA.
雅戈尔集团，1979年于宁波成立，是成衣生
产商。也是国内最大的垂直成衣生产公司。
现有2000家折扣店，年销售额350亿人民币
。这种变化在中国比欧洲和美国更快。
50

4-


Adidas. 1924 found as a Shoe
manufacturer in Southern Germany.
15 Bn. Euro Sales. No Production
anymore. About 1000 Stores
worldwide, another 1500 Shops.
阿迪达斯1924年作为鞋的生产商在
德国南部成立。年销售额150亿欧元
。现在不在生产了。全世界有1000
个店和1500销售点
The Story of the Transformation of Brands from former workshops to
Manufacturers and now Brands with no Production and worldwide Retail is
remarkable.
品牌的这种从小作坊到大型制造商，现在转变为没有生产的品牌商和全球化
的零售者，这种趋势很明显。
The next Challenge is the integration with Multi-Channel Retailing.
未来的挑战来自多渠道零售
51

4-

Multi-Channel Retailing is the new Generation 多渠道零售是新的世代

Click “Online”

Click “Store”
52

Summary
概要
第二次变革：1945-1995

53

5-

Conclusion for Retail and Brands in
China 对中国零售商和品牌商的启示
The three Transformations happened in China in only 35 years
The biggest Chinese Retailer is rank “59” in the world rank list
世界排名列表中，中国最大的零售商是排名是59名

Deloitte & Touch

The three Transformations happened in China in only 35 years
这三次变革在中国仅用了35年

54

5-

The Brand Value is still far away from International Rankings
品牌价值远远落后于国际水平

55

5-

Department Stores face strong Competition
百货店面临强大竞争

销售额
营业收入
营业成本
利润
利润率
营业面积

Comparison on base of 90 reference stores
90家商店的比较

56

5-

- The struggle between Malls and Department stores has started already
- 购物中心和百货商店之间的较量已经开始。
Retail space is developing fast (tier-1, tier-2 cities are already quite
developed. Tier-3 and rural areas are still underdeveloped). With several
hundred projected Malls, the speed of development is increasing.
销售空间发展迅速（1、2线市场发展迅猛，3线市场和农村地区还有待开
发），随着数以百计的商场项目动工，建设的速度还在加快。

57

5-

-

The number of Malls is increasing rapidly

RETAIL in China becomes more and more Real Estate driven !
中国的零售业变得越来越房地产驱动！
58

5-

-

The market share of Department Stores is down to about 20%
百货店在市场的份额下降到20%左右

59

5-

Department Stores lost their positions against Malls and Special Retail formats
在与购物中心和专门店的对抗过程中，百货商店难以坚守它们的地位。
The top 100 Retailers in China choose already Malls and Supermarkets as
more attractive Destinations
在中国，前100名零售商已经选择了购物中心和超市作为销售首选。
主流运营模式 2010

购物中心
超级市场
百货店

(Malls)

便利店
电器店
家居
药店
食品饮料

60

5-

The future pattern of Retail competition shows the direction out of the
“Middle”
未来零售竞争的模式显示，需要从“中部”走出来

61

5-

Therefore, I expect (1/2)
因此，我预期：
-a Market consolidation – too many “Labels” with no profile or misleading
branding
-市场整合——众多无知名度“商标”或有误导性品牌
-more and more aggressive competition in Retail
-越来越多的咄咄逼人的零售竞争
-Early season Mark downs, lots of left overs
-过早的季节降价，制造更多库存
-Price correction – Pricing situation does not reflect the economic situation
-价格调整----定价情况并不能反映经济状况
-Refurbishment of Malls and Department Stores to optimize Circulation, Brand
allocation and atmosphere to become a “Destination”
-商场和百货公司的重新调整，以优化信息传播、品牌分配和氛围，从而成为一个
“目的地”

62

5-


Therefore, I expect (2/2)
因此，我预期：
-More mature customers
-更成熟的客户
-More Multi label stores in the medium levels of the Maslow Hierarchy of needs
(lowering the risk)
-需要更多的处于马斯洛需求层次理论中等水平的多品牌店(降低风险)
-More effort of local Manufacturers to build Chinese Brands
-本土制造商建立中国品牌应付出更多的努力
-More Chinese Brands go abroad to test the International Market (Bosideng,
JNBY)
-更多的中国品牌出国试水国际市场(波司登、江南布衣)
-Discounters will enter the market – Hypermarkets are no Discounters!
-折扣店将进入这个市场——超市不是折扣店!

63

5-


The criteria for a high level Brand are (1/2):
高水平品牌的标准是:
高水平品牌的标准是
-High Quality Products
-高质量的产品
-Name Branding (no fake names: Johnny Vuitton is not convincing)
-品牌名称(没有假名字:约翰·威登并不令人信服)
-Limited availability,
-限量
-Highly innovative
-高度创新
-Liked and loved by the target group – must have in the target group (What is the
target group?)
-受目标群体喜爱——必须存在于目标群体中(目标群体是什么?)

64

5-


The criteria for a high level Brand are (2/2):
高水平品牌的标准是:
高水平品牌的标准是
-Highly trusted
-高度信任
-Offered only in Prime Locations which are Destinations – not in common
places
-只提供黄金地段的目的地,而不是普通的地方
-Extensive guarantees
-绝对的保证
-Extraordinary services
-非凡的服务

65

Summary 摘要
Department Stores, Malls and their specialized Retailers, Hypermarkets
and Big Box Chain Stores build a huge world wide Supply System with
more than 30 Trn. USD Turnover. The western world had 150 years for
three Transformations, in China these Transformations happened within
35 years.
.在世界范围内，百货商店、大型购物中心、专门品类零售商、综合超市和
大卖场等构成了一个年营业额 30万亿美元的巨大的供应体系。在西方世界
近150年来的零售历史上发生了3次重大的变革。而中国，这些变革在最近
的35年中发生。
In the last Transformation period, Brands became Retailers and eCommerce (B2C/C2C/B2B) arrived and forces Retailers to set up MultiChannel Strategies.
在最近的一次变革中，品牌商变为了零售商，加上电子商务
(B2C/C2C/B2B) 的到来，这些变化迫使零售商建立多渠道品牌战略。

66

In China, most of the local Retailers and Brands are located in the mid
levels of the Malsow Hierarchy of Needs, with increasing competition by
Real Estate driven Retail Expansion. The way out of the middle leads in
China to new Discount Formats and more upgraded Brands.
在中国，随着商业地产的发展，零售业得到了极大的发展。大部分的本
土零售商和品牌都是处在马斯洛需求层次的中间层次。对中国来说脱离
中层向折扣模式和更高层次品牌进发是一条出路。
The Retail potential of the Chinese Market is not comparable with any
other market. But the danger of the “Middle” will also speed up
consolidation.
中国零售市场的巨大潜力是无与伦比的。但是这种处在需求层次中间层
次的状态会面临整合的危险。

67

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