Being exposed to a flood of often legitimate questions from people (healthy or pathological), and this in all communication media, I offer an exchange of experience to offer "Wuhan flu", in the form a single daily bulletin of the "Key Points" type
1. Dr Guillaume Zagury
1/ "Dashboard," 6 digits:
Cumulated cases: 77 k( 77yesterday) Observation case: 51.8 k(51.8yesterday) Potential cases: 5.3k (5.3yesterday)
"Serious" cases: 11.4k(11.4=20%yesterday) Cumulative deaths: 2.446(2.444yesterday) Healed: 23.2k (22.7kyesterday)
As you've been saying for the past month, you have to know China and think Hubei / O2Hubei:
- Hubei: the majority of cumulative cases (82%), new cases (94%) and deaths (96%).
25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
Trends:
2/ China stable in the good way (graph 1): Trust - Attention
=>Double "scissors effects"
=>Yesterday "--doubling of deaths" and panic in the Western media and on my Wechat; it is absolutely normal, since we know, that
the kinetics of lethalite, revolve around 3 S, and that this corresponds thus to the peak of there is S3.
But be careful, all indicators at the local level must be green and stable (0 new cases in Shanghai - 71 cases under observation), in
order to 'free up economic flows'. The CNY's returns to the big cities are still an unknown.
=>To reassure some of you : of the 200k foreigners registered in Shanghai: 0 cases (if you have the china statistic , do not
hesitate to PM me).
=>I propose 3 exceptional "space/time" visuals, on a World/Provinces/Shanghai mapping.
2. Dr Guillaume Zagury
1/ « Tableau de bord », 6 chiffres :
Cas cumulés : 77.8 k( 77k hier) Cas observation : 53.4 k(51.8hier) Cas potentiels : 5.3k (5.3 hier)
Cas « graves »: 11.5k(11.4=20% hier) Décès cumulés : 2.666(2.446 hier) Guéris : 20.7k (23.2 hier)
« Trends » : comme dit depuis un mois, il faut connaître la Chine et penser Hubei / O2Hubei :
Hubei : la majorité des cas cumulés (82%), des nouveaux cas (94%) et des décès (96 % ).
Les points importants de ce jour (J29 après les mesures de
Santé publique pour la CoroV Flu )
25 Février 2020
2/ China stable dans le bon sens (icono 1) : Confiance & vigilance
Þ double “effets ciseaux”
Þ hier « +/-doublement des décès (+/- 150 versus +/- 100/jr) », et affolement dans les médias occidentaux
et sur mon Wechat ; c’est absolument normal, puisque nous savons, que la cinétique de la lethalite, tourne
autour de 3 S et que cela correspond ainsi au pic d’il y a S3.
=>mais prudence, il faut que tous les indicateurs au niveau local, soient au vert et stables (0 nouveau cas à
Shanghai & 71 cas en observation), pour ‘’libérer les flux économiques’’. Les retours du CNY sur les grandes
villes , constituent encore une inconnue.
-Pour rassurer certains : sur les 200k étrangers enregistrés à Shanghai : 0 cas (si vous avez la stat Chine,
n’hésitez pas à me Pm).
-Je vous propose 3 visuels « espace / temps » exceptionnels, sur un mapping Monde/Provinces/Shanghai.
3. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
4. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
5. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
6. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
7. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
8. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
9. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
10. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
11. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
12. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
13. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
14. Dr Guillaume Zagury
3/ World : virus in the process of globalization?
-We return to GEO-PATHOLOGY ("Geopolitics of Pathologies"), with the economic, diplomatic, technological, and
fortunately not yet military consequences of Covid 19.
-Wall Street saw its biggest decline in 2 years, following the turbulence now generated outside China (tourism, sport,
semiconductors...).
-Monitoring of Middle Eastern countries, Asia Pacific, Africa....
As always, patience - prevention ( »MHS": Mask - Hand - Sick)See you tomorrow, with 6 short reasons to be serene and confident
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
Public Health Specialist - Innovations
25 February 2020The important points "live 24/7 from Shanghai" for the Covid-19 (i.e. 29 days
after the start of individual and collective public health measures)
4/ The italian case
-In 2-3 days, 230 cases, 7 deaths (3%) , 11 "frozen" cities with 60 k inhabitants confined.
-Given the scheduled flights between Wuhan and France where the United Kingdom, Italy was not expected to be the first major focus
(computer modelling).
-The origin of the cases remains, for the time being, unknown. Travellers returning from China have already been tested (are negative).
-The very acute epidemic aspect raises questions such as " healthy carrier" (a key question for now without a clear answer), of some
people with high contagiousness (see the recent case in France and England).
-The current risk is that the pathology will settle randomly (intra or extra confined area), and that a case can no longer be linked to a
patient (or even a trip).
-"Live from Milan," Matilde's Life experience, after iconography.
15. Dr Guillaume Zagury
-Nous rentrons dans la GEOPATHOLOGIE (« Géopolitique des Pathologies »), avec les conséquences économiques,
diplomatiques, technologique, et heureusement non encore militaires du Covid 19.
-Wall Street a observé sa plus forte baisse depuis 2 ans, suite aux turbulences engendrées maintenant hors de Chine
(tourisme, sport, semi-conducteurs....).
-Surveillance des pays du Moyen Orient, l’Asie Pacifique, Afrique....
3/ Monde : Virus en voie de globalisation?
Par suite, patience & prévention (“3 M”: Masque Main Malade)A demain ( avec 6 courtes raisons d’être serein et confiant)
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
Spécialiste en Santé Publique & Innovations
Les points importants de ce jour (J29 après les mesures de
Santé publique pour la CoroV Flu )
25 Février 2020
4/ Le cas Italien
En 2-3 jours , 230 cas, 7 décès (3%) , 11 communes « gelées » avec 60 k habitants confinés.
-Compte tenu des vols réguliers entre Wuhan et la France où le Royaume Uni, l’Italie n’était pas pressentie pour être le 1 er foyer important
(modélisation informatique).
-L'origine des cas reste, pour l'heure, inconnue.Les voyageurs rentrés de Chine ont déjà été testé (s’avèrent négatifs).
-L’aspect épidémique très aiguë soulève des interrogations de type : « porteur sain » (question clé pour l’instant sans réponse tranchée), de
certaines personnes à haute contagiosité (cf le cas récent en France et Angleterre).
-Le risque actuel est que la pathologie s’installe de façon aléatoire (intra ou extra zone confinée),et que l’on ne puisse plus rattacher un cas à un
malade (voire un voyage).
-« En direct de Milan », le vécu Life de Matilde, après les iconographies.
16. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 Février 2020Entrepreuneur & Consultant en Health Innovations.
1. Circa 220 detected cases in the regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Piedmont with epicenter in Codogno, Lombardy.
2. So far, 6 victims (4 in Lombardy and 2 in Veneto) of whom the majority were aged 70 years or more and all had preexisting
conditions varying from cancer to severe diabetes.
3. Implementation of total quarantine for Codogno, Casalpusterlengo and Ponte D'Adda with risk of 3 months reclusion for those
not following the quarantine. Schools, Universities, Public Places such as Cinemas and Theaters closed until further notice for the
whole of Lombardy and Veneto regions. Suspension of Milan Fashion Week and Train transportation in the region.
4. Scarcity of masks and hand sanitizer due to public panic and paranoia, with the government urging people to remain calm given
the fact that Italy is at a much lower demographic density than other affected countries (Japan and South Korea)
5. Possible suspension of Schengen Treaty for entering other european countries, quarantine for any person leaving the affected
regions moving to southern Italy
6. Implementation of emergency hotlines for people with symptoms, although they are now all clogged due to unnecessary panic.
Patch tests for those reporting symptoms, due to a previewed peak in influenza cases for these weeks.
Directly from Cremona, Italy, with Matilde
17. Dr Guillaume Zagury 25 Février 2020Entrepreuneur & Consultant en Health Innovations.