Marketing attribution is complex due to multiple variables that influence sales over various time periods through direct and indirect relationships. New analytical techniques can help determine the contributions, effects, and returns of different marketing investments and combinations over the short, medium and long term. These include vector auto regression, dynamic linear models, and nonlinear programming. Accurately measuring attribution allows for optimizing media spending and understanding price elasticity and copy testing results.

1. 1
Marketing Attribution
New Developments in Measurement and Analytics

2. 2
The Marketing Process
• Multivariate
• Multiple Measures
– (Sales, Awareness, Web
Visits, Brand Search)
• Multiple Inputs
– (Distribution, Price, Media,
Promotions)
• Environment
– Competition, Season, GDP,
• Multiple Types of Relationships
• Direct or Indirect
• Unidirectional or Reciprocal or
Multi-directional
• Immediate or Delayed
• Current or Persistent
• Permanent or Temporary
• Solos or Synergistic
• Constant or Time Varying

3. 3Marketing
Process
Store Display
Brand Total
Sales vol.
Direct Contribution to sales
Competition
Website Visits
TV GRP
Brand
Search
Trade
PromotionOOH Spends
Indirect Contribution to sales
Marketing Inputs
Marketing Measures
Environmental variables
Season

4. 4
Relationships
Advertising Sales
Unidirectional
Advertising Sales
Reciprocal
Advertising Sales
Multidirectional
Distribution
Advertising
Sales
2 units
TV OOH
3 units
Synergistic
+1 unit

5. 5
Relationships
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales
Time
Instant
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0 2 4 6 8
Sales
Time
Persistent

6. 6
Relationships
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Sales
TV GRP
Linear
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Sales
TV GRP
Non-Linear
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Sales
TV GRP
Non-Linear

7. 7
Relationships
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 2 4 6 8
TVGRP
Sales
Time
Delayed Impact
Sales TV GRP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 2 4 6 8
TVGRP
Sales
Time
Instant Impact
Sales TV GRP

8. 8
Rain Way
Multiple Techniques
• Vector Auto Regression/Seemingly
Unrelated Regression/ Structural
Equations/Hierarchical Linear Models
• Kalman Filters, Dynamic Linear Models
• Koyck Transformation
• Non Linear Programming
Questions Answered
• Contributions – Direct, Indirect & Total
• Price Elasticities (by SKUs)
• Media Deep Dives – by vehicle, creative,
reach/frequency, daypart
• Copy Wear-in & Wear Out/Half Life
• Thresholds, Saturations, Optimum
• Solos and Synergistic Effects
• Short Term, Medium Term, Long Term
• Return on Marketing Investments
• Paid, Owned & Earned

9. 9
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