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Is an alliance betweenIndiaandUS inevitable?If so,why?If not,whynot?
Introduction
RelationsbetweenIndiaandthe UnitedStatesafterdecadesof underdevelopmentare steadily
improvingwiththe prospectof analliance inthe nearfuture. Thisessaywill focusonthe driversof
Indiansecuritypolicywhichare pushingittowardsgreatercooperationwiththe UnitedStatesof
America.Thisrelationshiphasdevelopedsincethe end of the oldColdWar strategiesandthe
emergence of anewworldinwhichmultiple Asiannationsare becomingstrongerandmore
assertive.The rise of Chinabotheconomicallyandstrategicallyisshapingnew thinkingacrossthe
Asia-Pacificwithcountriesseekingclosercooperationwiththe UnitedStatestocounterbalance
China.1
Afterdecadesof detachmentbetweenWashingtonandNew Delhi,Indiaismovingcloserto
the UnitedStatesand it is likelytogofurtherinthe comingdecades.Thisessaywill examine firstly;
the basisfor a US-Indiansecurityalliance;secondlythe historical reasonswhythe alliance will come
about;and thirdlywhatsort of alliance itwill be. SecuritycooperationbetweenIndiaandthe United
Stateswill be India’sinsurance from anuncertainfuture inAsiaandacomplicatedrelationshipwith
China.
Why IndiaandAmericawill formanalliance
StrategicReasons
The growth of Indiainrecentdecadeshasseenitsrise froman underdevelopedandisolatedcountry
to one whichiseconomicallyprosperingandinternationallyprominent. Underthe ‘Nehurvian’
principalsof non-alignmentIndiawasdetachedfromwiderconcernsaboutthe Asia-Pacific.2
In
recentyearsIndiahas emergedasanimportantregional powergiventhe size of the country,its
population(world’ssecondlargest),itsnuclearcapacityanditsambitionstomodernize its
conventional armedforcestoprojectitsstrengthinAsia.ThismakesIndiaakeyregional playerand
therefore anideal partnerfora UnitedStatesthatis alsolookingtosecure itsfuture asa major
powerinthe Asia-Pacificregion. NicholasBurnswhonegotiatedthe CivilNuclearAgreement
betweenIndiaandthe US,saidof the US-Indianrelationship:
The United States and India both seek to spread democracy, expand trade and investment, counter-
terrorism, and,above all, keep the regional peaceful by balancing China’s growing military power. As
1 Ian Hall,China Crisis? Indian Strategy, Political Realism, and the Chinese Challenge, Asian Security vol.8:1,
2012,p 87.
2 Vipin Narangand Paul Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, India Review,
vol. 11:2, 2012,p 81.
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Washington expands its presence in Asia as part of the so-called pivot, New Delhi will be a critical
partner.3
The UnitedStates,concernedaboutChinarise andthe potentiallynegativeimplicationsof this,is
seekingtosupportlikeminded(preferablydemocratic) statesinthe regionwhocanon the one hand
helptobalance againstChinaand secondlybuildpositive relationswithimportantstatesinthe
future.4
Indiagivenitsstrategiclocation nearChina,Pakistan,Afghanistan,andthe PersianGulf residesinan
area of extreme importance anduncertainty.5
The IndianOceanlike the Pacificislikelytoemerge as
a centre not onlyof economicactivitybutalsostrategiccompetition.6
GivenIndia’slimitationsin
termsof itsarmedforcesand the proximityof somanydangerousneighbours,supportfromasuper
powerisvital.These circumstancesexistedsimilarlyduringthe ColdWarand ledtoIndia’s
partnershipwiththe SovietUnionwho provided notonlymaterial supportbut alsodiplomatic
assurancesagainstthreatsto India.7
Now the UnitedStates ispositionedtosupportIndiainthe
regionsince somanyof the two countriesinterestsare aligned.8
Bothare seekingtosafeguard
againstChina’sambitions,both are committedtocombatingterrorismandbothbelievethatIndia
can be a powerful yetstabilizing force inSouthAsiaandthe widerregion. Asstrategicreasons
favoura partnershipbetweenIndiaandthe UnitedStates,the UnitedStateshasshownawillingness
to accommodate Indiabystrengtheningthe relationshiponpreviouslycontentiousissues.
Nuclear
The issue of India’snuclearweaponshadbeenalongrunningcause of frictioninthe US-India
relationship.The previousinstanceof the UnitedStatesthatIndiaaccede to the NuclearNon
ProliferationTreaty(NPT) compromisedanychance fora close securityrelationshipbetweenthe
twostates.9
Afterthe Civil NuclearAgreementbetweenthe UnitedStatesandIndiacame intoeffect
in2008 (announcedin2005) one of the greatestobstaclestoa securityrelationshipwasremoved.10
3 Nicholas Burns,Passageto India, Foreign Affairs,vol.93:5, 2014,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/24512/passage_to_india.html?breadcrumb=%2Fexperts%2F1
802%2Fnicholas_burns.
4 Satu P. Limaye, U.S.-India Relations: Visible to the Naked Eye, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
2001,http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/0104qus_india.pdf,p 1.
5 Daniel Markey, Developing India’s Foreign Policy ‘Software’, Asia Policy vol.8,2009,p 90.
6 Rory Medcalf, Raoul Heinrichs and Justin Jones, Crisis and Confidence: Major Powers and Maritime Security in
Indo-Pacific Asia, Lowy Institute for International Policy,p 10.
7 S. Paul Kapur and Sumit Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations: an Explanation for the
Rapprochement and Prospects for the Future, Asian Survey, vol.47:4, 2007,p 644.
8 Burns, Passage to India.
9 Sumit Ganguly and Andrew Scobell, India and the United States: Forging a Security Partnership, World Policy
Journal,vol.22.2, 2005, p 38.
10 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 651.
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The agreementalsohadthe effectof improvingAmerica’sstandinginthe eyesof mostIndian’sand
createdbroad political supportinIndiaforcloserrelationswiththe UnitedStates.
Nowthat Indiahas the benefitsof nuclearcooperationwiththe UnitedStatesandnolongerhasto
confrontoppositionbasedonthe NPT,itcreatesa greaterreliance byIndiaonthe UnitedStatesin
termsof security. WithoutUnitedStatessupportforitsnuclearcapabilityIndiawouldonce again
finditself outinthe coldwithoutthe necessarydiplomaticsupport.Further,Australiaasamajor
uraniumexporterandclose allyof the UnitedStateswouldbe unlikelytoexpanditsexportsof
uraniumto IndiawithoutUSsupport,creatingfurtherpressuresforUS-Indianalignment.11
Weapons
One of the core requirementsof Indiansecurityisthe modernizationof itsarmedforces,inorderto
secure the Indianinterior,todefenditsbordersandtodeteropponents.GiventhatIndiahasfought
wars withitstwomajor neighbours(PakistanandChina) itsrequirementsforconventional military
hardware are substantial.PreviouslyIndiahadreliedonthe SovietUnionforarmspurchaseson
highlyfavourableterms.12
Afterthe ColdWar endedIndiafacedrestraintsonwhatitcouldpurchase.
Furtherthe successorto the SovietUnion,the RussianFederationlackedthe sophisticatedweapons
technologypossessedbythe UnitedStatesthatthe IndianArmedForces requiresinorderto
crediblybalance againstbothPakistanandChina.13
An alliance betweenthe UnitedStatesandIndiawouldgive IndiaaccesstoUS militarytechnology.
There have already beenanumberof highprofile purchases of USequipment andthe government
inNewDelhi isinterestinginfuture acquisitions.Close alliesof the UnitedStatesare given
preferential accesstoUS equipment,justasPakistandidbybeingaUS ally.14
Withthe relationship
betweenIndiaandthe USimproving,the ideaof accessto advancedweaponrywilllikelyswayIndia
closerto the UnitedStates.
Historical Inevitabilityof aUS-Indiaalliance
The Cold War
RelationsbetweenIndiaandthe UnitedStatesduringthe ColdWar were tense andquite
problematic.Since the endof thatperiodof historyhoweverthe relationshipbetweenthe twohas
improvedimmenselybutmostimportantlythe effectsof the ColdWar periodinAsiahave made the
11 ABC The World Today, Govt Under Pressure to Sell Uranium to India, 2005
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2006/s1583207.htm.
12 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 647.
13 Ganguly and Scobell,India and the United States, p 43.
14 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, pp. 643-644.
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chancesof an alliance betweenIndiaandthe US more likely. Giventhe factthatIndiahad to fight
numerousconflictswithPakistansince itsIndependence andgiventhe hostile state of affairswith
China,Indiarequiredanassuredsource of armamentstoinsure itssecurity.15
Understandably,India
turnedto the SovietUniontosupplyequipmentforitsarmy,navyand air force.Since the collapse of
the SovietUnion,Indiaandthe US no longerhave to considereachotherideological adversariesand
the relationshiphasreturnedtoanormal footing.16
One of the importantlegaciesof the ColdWarwas the close relationshipbetweenthe UnitedStates
and Pakistan. USfearsof Sovietexpansion ledtosupportof the weakstate and a distancingof the
US from India.17
Afterthe endof the USSR that objective wasnolongernecessaryandthe
emergence of Indiaasa regional powerandPakistan’sinternal problemsseemtohave made Indiaa
more reliable partnerforthe UnitedStates.18
The rise of IslamistterrorgroupsinPakistanisa shared
concernand will bringthe US and Indiatogetherintermsof counter-terrorismandintelligence in
the future.19
A more complicatedchange since thisperiodwasthe USrelationshipwithChinawhichcame about
as a meansof dividingthe Communistworldandreducingthe influenceof the USSRin Asia.Since
that time Indiahasbeenviewedbythe USas a potential partnerforregional securityforthe
purpose of limitingChina’sambitionsandmitigatingitsabilitytoact as a regional hegemon.20
The
historical legacyof US-Indianantagonismtherefore maynotdetermine the future.Indeedthere
have beenrapidchangesinthe past 20 yearswhichsuggest India’sdiscomfort withChina,USmoves
to containChinaand a US-Indiapartnershipbasedonthistrend.
Indian Politics
AfterIndiaachievedindependencein1947, the policyof non-alignmentwasdevelopedinorderto
say that Indiawasindependent,free fromcolonial control andwasnotgoingto be drawnintothe
ColdWar contest.21
Thispolicygovernedmuchof Indianforeignpolicyupuntil the endof the Cold
War. HowevernewcircumstancesforcedIndianpolicymakerstoadaptitsstance in waysthat make
it likelythatIndiawillbecome closertothe UnitedStatesandforma securityalliance withit.The
abandonmentof socialismineconomicsanditsreplacementwithmarketreformshasopenedIndia
15 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 644.
16 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 643.
17 Ganguly and Scobell, India and the United States, p 37.
18 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 647.
19 Vajpayee-Bush Joint Statement, 2001, http://www.outlookindia.com/article/VajpayeeBush-Joint-
Statement/213673.
20 Burns, Passage to India.
21 Narangand Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, p 83.
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up to the world,especiallythe world’sbiggesteconomyinthe US.22
Furtherthe UnitedStates
courtingof Indiaaftertooclose a relationshipwithPakistanhasalsocreatedapolitical environment
where bothmajorIndianparties,the IndianNationalCongress(INC) andthe BharatiyaJanataParty
supportcooperationwiththe United States.23
China Challenge
The rise of Chinaas an economicandstrategicpower hasbeenof concernto Indiagiventhe
historicallytenserelationshipbetweenthe twostates.Despite someattemptsatbuildinga
constructive relationship,the effectsof the 1962 invasionbyChinainthe disputedterritorieshave
resultedinfrayedrelationseversince.24
Thisstate of affairsgivesweighttothe ideaof anIndia-US
alliance since Indiaonitsownisnot capable of deterringChina.WithUnitedStatessupport,the
securityof Indiaismore assuredthan an alternative arrangement.
India’spolicyof non-alignmentgrewoutof the post-colonial contextandlaterthe tense ColdWar
environment.Inthe 1970s the US andChina(and Pakistan) were positioningtogetheragainstthe
USSR whichmade Indiamore reliantonthe USSR and more wearyof the US.25
That periodisno
longerrelevanttomodernIndiaandtodayitfacesa more directchallenge fromaneconomically
strengthenedChina.The UnitedStatesalsoviewsChinaasa strategiccompetitorandislookingto
builda regional blockthatcan limit China’sambitionsinAsia. SagarwritesthatIndiaisseekingto
create ‘an informal coalitionof Asianstatessharinganinterestinstabilityandprosperity,thereby
balancingChina’sinfluence inthe region’.26
Thisprovidesasimilarbasisforan India-USalliance to
that whichexistedinthe aftermathof the Sino-IndianWarwhere the US backedIndiaboth
diplomaticallyandmilitarily.27
Many Indiawatcherssuch as Narangand Staniland positthatIndiaandthe US are twodifferentto
cooperate andthat Indiapridesitsstrategicautonomytosuchan extentthatthisprecludesany
close alliances.28
Howeverthe regional contestbetweenChinaandIndiaislikelytochange that.
Indiaand the US are alreadycooperatingonnuclearenergy,whichresultedina major breakfrom
Indianpolicy.Andthe US isclearlyworkinghardtobuildalliancesinthe region,whichalsohave
come about frommajor shiftsinstrategicthinking.
22 Burns, Passage to India.
23 Narangand Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, p 87.
24 Hall,China Crisis?, pp. 85-86.
25 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 644.
26 Rahul Sagar,State of Mind: What Kind of Power Will India Become?, International Affairs,vol. 85:4,2009, p
814.
27 Kapur and Ganguly, The Transformation of US-India Relations, p 643.
28 Narangand Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, p 77.
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Myanmar, isolatedfordecadesdiplomaticallyisbuildingastrongrelationshipwiththe UnitedStates
despite itshistoryasanauthoritariansocialistone-partystate.29
Vietnamwhichhadfoughta
devastatingwarwiththe UnitedStateshassince become one of the mostpro-Americanstatesin
Asia,largelybasedonconcernsaboutChinese claimsonwhatVietnamconsidersitsterritory.30
At
one pointneitherof these twostateswouldhave beenconsideredlikelyUSalliesbutchangesinAsia
have broughtabout the desire of manycountriesinthe regiontobolstertheirsecuritythrough
cooperationwiththe UnitedStates.Indiashowsall the signsof seekingacloseralliance withthe
UnitedStatesforthe sake of its security.
What type of alliance will itbe?
SecurityTreaty?
The questionof whatsort of alliance Indiaandthe UnitedStateswill embarkuponinthe future isan
importantquestion.ItisunlikelythatIndiawill acceptasecurityalliance alongthe linesof the US-
JapanSecurityTreaty.31
The US and Japanhave unifiedcommandstructures,jointmilitary
installationsandanagreementtodefendthe otherinthe eventof anattack. AlthoughIndiaseeks
securitycooperationanddiplomaticsupportfromthe UnitedStatesIndiadoesnotappearwilling
nowor in the near future tohave that sort of arrangement.32
ClearlyIndiaisseekingcooperationon
arms purchases,nuclearenergy, counter-terrorismandintelligencewhichrepresentsamajorstepin
relationsinitself.33
The future alliance betweenIndiaandthe US will be builtintermsof cooperation
rather thanovertcommitmentswhichleaveeachwithroomtomove giventhe evolvingsituation.
Indian Autonomy
Althoughthe policyof non-alignmentappearsto be insome decline,itssentimentremainsstrongin
Indianpolitics.34
Hence IndiaisnotlikelytosupportUSglobal interests withregardstoIranand
Russiainsuch a way that itappearsto be subservienttoUSinterests.35
MarkeyarguesthatAmerican
expectationsfor‘aglobal strategicpartnershipwithIndiacouldfallshort’.36
Howeverthe US would
29 Patrick Barta, U.S. Forges Deeper Myanmar Ties, Wall Street Journal, 2012,
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304072004577323451080077384?mg=reno64-
wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304072004577323451080077384.h
tml.
30 C. Raja Mohan, Facing China Threat, Vietnam Seeks American Balance, Indian Express,2013,
http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/facing-china-threat-vietnam-seeks-american-balance/1123706/.
31 Limaye, U.S.-India Relations, p 4.
32 Limaye, U.S.-India Relations, p 4.
33 Ganguly and Scobell, India and the United States, p 41.
34 Narangand Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, p 90.
35 Narangand Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, p 89.
36 Markey, Developing India’s Foreign Policy ‘Software’, p 95.
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be hopingthat overtime Indiawill come tosupportUS interestsonthe international stage butthat
isprobablysome wayaway.There still remainsmuchcommongroundbetweenthe twoinglobal
terms.37
Counter-terrorismandnuclearenergyare the twoissuesupon whichIndiaandthe US are
makingstrongprogress.38
Indiahasalsofoundthe US a supporterof itsbidfor a permanentseaton
the UN SecurityCouncil.39
Therefore India’sdesireforstrategicautonomydoesnotalways
determine itsactionsandwhenthe UnitedStatescanprovide supportIndiaappearswillingto
accept it.
US-India vs.China
What ismost likelytoinfluencethe alliance betweenIndiaandthe US isconcernsabout China.This
suggeststhatsuch an alliance wouldbe inparta negative one or‘alignmentof convenience’,in
whichthe primarypurpose isto counter-balance againstanotherstate.40
Howevermanyalliances
are builtonsuch a basisand thisisclearlysomething increasingcommoninthe region.
Ian Hall arguesIndiaisunlikelytoattemptanyaggressive orprovocative behaviourdue tothe
weaknessof the Indiandefence forces;India’svulnerable strategicpositionbetweenPakistanand
China;and the considerable internaldifficultiesIndiagrappleswith.41
AlthoughindeedIndiais
unlikelytoprecipitate anyhostilities,the vulnerabilitiesthatHall describesare keyreasonswhyIndia
isbecomingclosertothe UnitedStates.Indiaaltereditspolicyof non-alignmentinordertogainthe
friendshipandsupportof the USSR in orderto defenditself againstChina.42
The contemporary
settingisnotso different,if lessopenlyhostilethanbefore. Indiadoesworryabout ‘China’sultimate
intentions’ andthe UnitedStatesisthe onlyviable partnerforIndiainsecurityterms.43
Conclusion
A future US-Indiasecurityalliance isinthe makingasa resultof the environmentinAsia.The rise of
Chinaand India’sdesire tobe aregional powerare issuesthatare likelytopushIndiaintoanalliance
withthe UnitedStates,giventhe parallelinterestsof the twodemocracies.The UnitedStatesis
seekingtoconsolidateitspredominate positioninAsiathroughshoringupitsbilateral alliancesand
by buildingnew oneswithemergingpowerssuchasIndia.Alreadyanumberof contentiousissues
such as nuclearweaponshave beenresolvedandthe UnitedStatesismovingquicklytoreplace the
37 Ganguly and Scobell, India and the United States, p 41.
38 Ganguly and Scobell, India and the United States, p 41.
39 Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Jim Yardley, Countering China,Obama Backs India for U.N. Council,New York Times,
2010,http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/world/asia/09prexy.html?_r=2&src=mv&.
40 Narangand Staniland,Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy, p 77.
41 Hall,China Crisis?, pp. 89-90.
42 Ganguly and Scobell, India and the United States, p 37.
43 Sagar,State of Mind, p 815.
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oldSovietUnionasIndia’ssuperpowerguarantor.Since the UShaswhat Indiarequiresintermsof
weaponryanddiplomaticmuscle afuture India-USalliance appearsinevitable.
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