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A
SEMINAR REPORT
ON
“THE POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF SOLAR POWER IN INDIA”
Submitted in Partial Fulfillment for the Award of
Master of Technology (M.Tech.) Degree of
Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur
2014-2015
Supervised By: Submitted By:
Dr. G. D. Agarwal Gaurav Gupta
Associate Professor, (2013PCV5068)
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Adjunct Associate Professor,
Centre for Energy and Environment,
MNIT Jaipur
CENTRE FOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
MALAVIYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JAIPUR
JLN MARG, JAIPUR, RAJASTHAN-302017
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MALAVIYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JAIPUR
CENTRE FOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
JAIPUR – 302017 (RAJASTHAN) INDIA
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the seminar entitled “The Policy Framework for Development of Solar
Power in India” that is being submitted by Gaurav Gupta and approved for submission in
partial fulfilment for the Master of Technology in Renewable Energy, Centre for Energy and
Environment during academic session 2013-2015.
Date: Dr. G. D. Agarwal
Associate Professor,
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Adjunct Associate Professor,
Centre for Energy and Environment,
Malaviya National Institute of Technology
Jaipur, Rajasthan
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I am highly obliged to my esteemed supervisor and guide Dr. G. D. Agarwal, Associate
Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering for his continuous guidance throughout the
period of my studies. His valuable suggestions and discussions were always helpful and
inspiring. Also, his support and encouragement were my greatest motive to aim for the best.
I feel great full to express my heartiest thanks to Dr. Jyotirmay Mathur (HOD, Center for
Energy and Environment) for trusting and supporting me and Dr. Rajesh Kumar, Associate
Professor Department of Electrical Engineering for their constant support and encouragement to
the great completion.
Gaurav Gupta
Renewable Energy
(2013PCV5068)
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ABSTRACT
India is targeting for large scale solar deployment in next decade, while the
Government is not yet prepared to reach that target with suitable policies. “The
Policy framework for development of Solar power in India” is prepared for
achieving the target of India through change in various policies. The report will
give the idea of trend of policies adopted in past and will give the future
perspective for the development of policies in Solar PV sector so as to reach the
targets set by Indian Government. This policy framework also highlights the
challenges for grid integration of solar power to existing system. It also projects
need of promoting the off grid solar PV in remote areas, and specify the policy
framework to achieve the planned targets by 2030 and to meet the Government
of India's climate change targets, & initial experiences through JNNSM & state
level achievements of solar power targets. The report also tells about grid parity
projections for solar energy, which is essential to develop decentralized solar
plants.
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Table of Contents
CERTIFICATE......................................................................................................................... 2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT........................................................................................................ 3
ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction –....................................................................................................................... 7
1.1 Literature Review – ........................................................................................................... 9
1.2 History of solar policy development in India –............................................................... 10
2. Present Capacity Installed under various programs –........................................................ 11
2.1 Central Level policy development –................................................................................ 12
2.2 State level policies development -................................................................................... 14
2.3 RPO and REC programs - ............................................................................................... 15
2.4 Analysis for State vs Central development –................................................................... 16
3. Tariff trends under various solar programs –..................................................................... 19
3.1 Analysis between FIT and competitive bidding -............................................................ 20
4. Developments under the Rooftop solar & the off grid solar program ............................... 22
5. Roadmap for 2030.............................................................................................................. 23
5.1 Roadmap -........................................................................................................................ 23
5.2 Phased Development till 2030......................................................................................... 25
5.3 Capacity Requirement by 2030 ....................................................................................... 26
6. Grid Parity in solar energy –.............................................................................................. 26
7. Challenges –....................................................................................................................... 29
7.1 Constrain of transmission of power –.............................................................................. 31
7.2 Land and Power evacuation –.......................................................................................... 32
7.3 Variability in Generation –.............................................................................................. 32
7.4 Problem in Financing –.................................................................................................... 32
7.5 Improper solar resource data – ........................................................................................ 32
7.6 Supply Chain constrain –................................................................................................. 33
7.7 Policy uncertainty –.................................................................................................... 33
8. Conclusion – ...................................................................................................................... 33
9. References –....................................................................................................................... 35
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Table of Graphs
Graph 2: Targets Vs Achievements of solar capacity under state policies................................... 18
Graph 3: Target Vs Achievements of solar energy capacity under JNNSM ................................ 18
Graph 4: CERC Benchmark tariff trend for SPV and ST[12]
........................................................ 19
Graph 5 : Tariff trend of state and Central bids and CERC tariff benchmarking......................... 20
Graph 6 : VGF Allotment in JNNSM Phase 2[10]
......................................................................... 21
Graph 7: KPMG The Rising Sun, Grid Parity representation[16]
.................................................. 28
List of Figures
Table 1: All India Solar capacity installation State wise [8]
.......................................................... 12
Table 2: JNNSM Targets .............................................................................................................. 13
Table 3: Capacity Installation in JNNSM Phase 1........................................................................ 13
Table 4: Solar capacity targets and achievements under state policies (bidding Completed)...... 14
Table 5 : Solar RFP released but not bidded under state policies................................................. 15
Table 6: Solar RPO Targets for India ........................................................................................... 16
Table 7: Prediction and projections for solar industry in India by different reports [15][16][17] 28
List of Tables
Table 1: All India Solar capacity installation State wise [8]
.......................................................... 12
Table 2: JNNSM Targets .............................................................................................................. 13
Table 3: Capacity Installation in JNNSM Phase 1........................................................................ 13
Table 4: Solar capacity targets and achievements under state policies (bidding Completed)...... 14
Table 5 : Solar RFP released but not bidded under state policies................................................. 15
Table 6: Solar RPO Targets for India ........................................................................................... 16
Table 7: Prediction and projections for solar industry in India by different reports [15][16][17] 28
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Short Form Used
JNNSM Jawahar lal Nehru National Solar Mission
NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change
SECI Solar Energy Center of India
RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation
REC Renewable Energy Certification
MNRE Ministry of New Renewable Energy
SNA State Nodal Agency
CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission
SPV Solar Photo Voltaic
ST Solar Thermal
EXIM Export Import
RFP Request for Proposal
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1. Introduction –
India is a country which is blessed with the sunshine and abounded solar energy, according to its
geographical location. India has a potential of producing 5000 trillion units (kWh)[7]
of clean
energy. India has on an average of 300 days of good sunshine over a year with an insolation of
about 4 to 7 kWh for every square meter each day. Now Indian government is giving emphasis to
harness this unlimited natural power of solar, which if synthesizes efficiently it accounts to
counter our energy deficit scenario without affecting the environment and giving a hand to the
clean energy production or low carbon emission. Currently with central government, a number of
state governments are also initiated their solar energy programs to fulfill their energy
requirement by clean energy. In the near future India and China will be the main market in the
world for solar industry, as European countries has done their efforts before us and they have
land problems also.
The map of India for estimating of annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) by NREL
is shown below –
Figure 1: India GHI Map [7]
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1.1 Literature Review –
The Policy framework for development of Solar in India is prepared for achieving the target of
India through change in various policies. This also highlight the need of promoting the off grid
solar PV in rural areas, and specify the policy framework to achieve the planned targets by 2030
and to meet the Government of India's climate change targets, & initial experiences through
JNNSM & state level achievements of solar power targets.
Naveen Kumar Sharma[1] in “Solar energy in India: Strategies, policies, perspectives and
future potential” has said that India has a severe electricity shortage. It needs massive
additions in capacity to meet the demand of its rapidly growing economy. Development
of solar energy, which is indigenous and distributed and has low marginal cost of
generation, can increase energy security by diversifying supply, reducing import
dependence, and mitigating fuel price volatility.
Zhi Qiang [2] in “China’s solar photovoltaic policy: An analysis based on policy instruments”
has said that examines the development history of China’s PV industry policy system from the
perspective of industrial policies and compares China with United States, Germany and Japan
from the perspective of both supply-side and demand-side policies. The study found that for the
market demand-side, China’s policies focus on government regulations and concentrate mainly
on the product popularization and application stages, with insufficient investment in R&D in the
early stage.
Chi-Jen Yang [3] in “Reconsidering solar grid parity” has given Grid parity–reducing the cost of
solar energy to be competitive with conventional grid-supplied electricity–has long been hailed
as the tipping point for solar dominance in the energy mix. Such expectations are likely to be
overly optimistic. A realistic examination of grid parity suggests that the cost-effectiveness of
distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems may be further away than many are hoping for.
Furthermore, cost-effectiveness may not guarantee commercial competitiveness. Solar hot water
technology is currently far more cost-effective than photovoltaic technology and has already
reached grid parity in many places.
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Sufang Zhang [4] in “Analysis on the development and policy of solar PV power in China” has
said China’s PV industry has developed rapidly in recent years due to the dramatic demand from
the world market. In contrast, until 2010 China’s domestic PV market has been very small due to
lack of sufficient incentives in the country to promote domestic PV deployment. However, since
early 2009 many incentives have been implemented in China. The paper makes analysis on
China’s solar PV incentive policies, particularly the national FIT scheme.
Jinho Jung [5] in “Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana” given In the
economic analyses and the case without net-metering, the larger system is less attractive than the
smaller one even though the larger system generates more electricity. These systems do not
include net-metering with which customers can take advantage of the larger system. Without net-
metering, excess electricity would be discarded instead of being sold to the utility. Thus, the
larger system shows lower economic viability.
Raymond Hudson [6] in “PV Grid Integration – System Management Issues and Utility
Concerns” has given Solar PV systems have evolved from small stand-alone applications
through residential and commercial systems to MW-scale installations and groups of systems
that feed significant energy into the utility grid. High PV penetration levels create a number of
challenges forth management of the operation of the utility grid. This paper will cover the current
and historic status of the integration of renewable energies into utility grids over a variety of
global regions. This includes grid control and network planning.
1.2 History of solar policy development in India –
After launching the Indian NAPCC plan on June 30, 2008, India launched its ambitious 8
national mission, in which Jawahar Lal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)[7]
was also
launched in 2010, to harness India’s solar power to produce electricity by clean technology. But
for India the starting of MW size solar power plants or big scale solar plants was not the
JNNSM, before this mission in the year of Jan – 2009 Gujarat was the first state to start its own
solar policy to develop on grid solar power plants. After that in between of the JNNSM phase 1,
some other states of india also came with their state solar policy for adding solar capacity
parallelly, which were Karnataka (Feb – 2011) and Rajasthan (April – 2011).
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Now about 15 states has its own solar installation under construction solar capacity. The order of
these state and central policies can be depicted below (Chronological Order) –
Figure 2 : Solar Policy launching in chronological order
Presently Gujarat has the highest capacity of about 916 MW[8]
(total capacity including all
policies) but still have enough potential for more installation. Some states like Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir are the states which still underachiever in
the field of solar energy with more than enough potential to harness.
2. Present Capacity Installed under various programs –
Current scenario of solar installation status on pan India basis is 2631.9 MW[8]
by the march
2014. Here we can segregate this installation of solar in four main categories which is Central
Level (MNRE), State level (All State renewable agencies), under Renewable purchase obligation
(RPO), and under Renewable Energy Certification(REC). In this also the major portion is
covered by first two categories which is Central level and state level development i.e. 687.8 MW
and 1322.6 MW respectively, and remaining capacity is about 580.6 under RPO and REC
Schemes. The other miscellaneous installation of 41 MW has done under programs like private
initiative and CPSUs.
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All this breakup has done in whole India in different states, the breakup of all installation is
shown below in the table –
Table 1: All India Solar capacity installation State wise
[8]
Sr.
No.
State/UT Total
MNRE
Projects
MW
State
Policy
MW
RPO
MW
REC
Scheme
MW
Pvt.
Initiative
(Roof top)
MW
CPSUs
MW
Total
commissioned
cap. till 31-3-14
(MW)
1 Andhra Pradesh 46.75 85.09 131.84
2 Arunachal Pradesh 0.025 0.025
3 Chhattisgarh 4 3.1 7.1
4 Gujarat 0 860.4 50 6 916.4
5 Haryana 7.8 2.5 10.3
6 Jharkhand 16 16
7 Karnataka 5 17 9 31
8 Kerala 0.025 0.025
9 Madhya Pradesh 5.35 175 166.815 347.165
10 Maharashtra 47 150 49.25 3 249.25
11 Orissa 13 5 2.5 10 30.5
12 Punjab 9.325 7.52 16.845
13 Rajasthan 493.5 22.1 40 174.5 730.1
14 Tamil Nadu 16 3 78.86 0.5 98.36
15 Uttar Pradesh 12.375 8.7 21.075
16 Uttarakhand 5.05 5.05
17 West Bengal 2.05 5 7.05
18 Andaman & Nicobar 0.1 5 5.1
19 Delhi 0.885 2.14 2.1288 5.1538
20 Lakshadweep 0.75 0.75
21 Puducherry 0.025 0.025
22 Chandigarh 2 2
23 Others 0.79 0.79
TOTAL 687.8 1322.59 90 490.685 15.6288 25.2 2631.9038
2.1 Central Level policy development –
After the NAPCC in 2008 India launched its first National Mission for solar energy which was
dedicated to the big scale (MW size) solar plants. On February 2010 Central government started
the highly ambitious solar mission for India named as Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
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(JNNSM) which gave a roadmap to Indian solar industry for its future with a target of 22000
MW installation of solar power by 2022. JNNSM[7]
comprises three stages of development solar
power under three different categories of a) grid connected solar plants b) Off grid solar plants
and c) Solar thermal collectors.
Table 2: JNNSM Targets
Phase 1 -
Under the JNNSM before the phase 1, Migration policy came first on February 2010, in this
Feed in Tariff (FIT) scheme were given to all the solar plant developers which had already under
construction plants under any other program. MNRE offered them the FIT of 17.91 Rs/ kWh[7]
.
After that Phase 1 started with two batches as batch 1 and batch 2 which consist of competitive
bidding process. The target and achievements of these programs are given below in the table –
Table 3: Capacity Installation in JNNSM Phase 1
Sections Migration
scheme
BatchI(NVVN) ST
(NVVN)
RPSSGP Batch
II
Target (MW) 84 150 470 98.05 350
Commissioned till march
2014 (MW)
50.5 140 50 88.8 310
Uncommissioned (MW) 33.5 10 420 9.25 40
In the batch 1 of Phase 1 of JNNSM for solar thermal also the target was fixed at 470 MW but it
was not achieved successfully as of current installation in this section is about only 50 MW,
because of complex technology and construction.
S. No. Type of plant Phase I
(2010 – 2013)
Cumulative
target of Phase 2
(2013 – 2017)
Cumulative
target of Phase 3
(2017 – 2022)
1 Utility grid power 1100 MW 10,000 MW 20,000 MW
2 Off Grid Solar
Application
200 MW 1000 MW 2000 MW
3 Solar Thermal Collectors 7 million sq.
Mt.
15 million sq. Mt. 20 million sq. Mt.
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To develop and encourage small solar programs and rooftop applications RPSSGP program was
uninitiated under phase 1. Under which 88.8 MW achieved of the target of 98 MW which was
also much dominating in the small solar programs and very less in rooftop solar.
Phase 2 –
In JNNSM Phase 2[10]
, total 68 bids were received from 58 developers, covering 122 projects
with a cumulative capacity of 2,170 MW. Of this, 36 projects with a capacity of 700 MW opted
to bid under the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) part A of the bidding process and the
remaining 86 projects with a capacity of 1,470 MW opted for the open category Part B. Each
part eventually got allocated an equal 375 MW capacity projects, so it is 750 MW[10]
.
2.2 State level policies development -
In India Mega Watt (MW) size installation of solar energy started with the state level policies
only, which was Gujarat Solar Policy 2009[9]
. Under this policy first time Feed in Tariff (FIT)
was offered to the plant developers to encourage them and attract to this solar industry which
was very expensive one at that time. After Gujarat JNNSM phase Ist
Karnataka and Rajasthan
came with its first solar policies. Currently about 15 states has its solar energy programs in which
10 states have its programs with bidded capacity of 4360 MW, on other hand about 1210 MW
capacity of solar PV is under pipeline of the state policy of which RFP has released but the
bidding is in under process.
The status installed solar capacity under all state policies is shown below –
Table 4: Solar capacity targets and achievements under state policies (bidding Completed)
Policies Target
(MW)
Commissioned till march
2014
(MW)
Uncommissioned
(MW)
Gujarat 970 860.4 109.6
Karnataka 210 17 193
Rajasthan 200 22.1 177.9
MP –I 200 175 25
AP 1000 85.09 914.91
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TN 1000 3 997
UP 200 0 200
Orrisa 30 5 25
Punjab 300 0 300
MP-II 100 0 100
Chattisagarh 100 0 100
Karnataka II 50 0 50
Total 4360 1168 3192.41
Here we can see that the total project achievement under state bids is about 1168 MW (by march
2014) [8]
, of 4360 MW bidded capacity.
Table 5 : Solar RFP released but not bidded under state policies
S. No. States released RFP
(MW)
1 UP 300
2 Haryana 50
3 Bihar 250
4 Assam 60
5 Karnataka-
III
500
6 Rajasthan 50
Total 1210
With these two tables, the total or cumulative target of solar capacity addition under state
policies is 5570 MW. Two states of India Maharashtra and west Bengal also have installed
capacity of solar of about 150 Mw and 5 MW, but these two has added to state without any open
bidding. So the total installed capacity of solar in India under state policies is about 1323 MW, of
5570 MW targeted value.
2.3 RPO and REC programs -
Other than the development under state policies and central policies, Government of India also
mandated the Renewable Purchase Obligation on the DISCOMS, as well as open access
consumers and the initial RPO targets were kept very low of the order of 0.25% (2011-2012),
further increasing this targets to 0.50% in 2013-14. However the solar installation through RPO
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mandates were also very low and as on date we have about 90 MW of installations under the
RPO program. The lack of enforcement of RPO had a direct impact on the trading of the Solar
Renewable Energy Certificates (REC), which continued to remain lacklustre. So far about 490
MW capacity has been installed under the REC programs. The majority of installations were in
the state of Rajasthan with a total capacity installation of 174 MW under the REC scheme,
followed by Madhya Pradesh Installing about 166 MW and Tamilnadu with a capacity
installation of 75 MW.
The RPO targets of India till 2022 will reach about 3 % according to MNRE[11]
, which is
equivalent to 34152 MW of solar energy installed capacity.
Table 6: Solar RPO Targets for India
Solar power capacity requirement till 2022 for solar RPO targets
Year Energy Demand
(MU)
Solar RPO
(%)
Solar Energy
Requirement (MU)
for RPO compliance
Requirement for RPO
compliance (MW)
2011-12 953919 0.25% 2385 1433
2012-13 1022287 0.25% 2556 1536
2013-14 1095555 0.50% 5478 3291
2014-15 1174074 0.75% 8806 5291
2015-16 1258221 1% 12582 7560
2016-17 1348399 1.25% 16855 10127
2017-18 1443326 1.75% 25258 15176
2018-19 1544936 2.25% 34761 20885
2019-20 1653700 2.50% 41343 24839
2020-21 1770120 2.75% 48678 29247
2021-22 1894736 3% 56842 34152
Similarly in the REC schemes also there is an installation of 491 MW on pan India basis, but
according to the recent trends the REC market for solar (solar RECs) is going down rapidly.
2.4 Analysis for State vs Central development –
As discussed above in India there are two major sections for solar capacity addition India, i. e.
Central level development (MNRE) and state level development (SNAs). If we plot a graph of
solar energy capacity addition annually in policy perspective, it can be shown like it -
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Figure 3: Solar capacity addition annually policy wise
[8]
Here we can see that the state policies account for about 50% of total capacity addition till
march 2014 [8]
, and JNNSM accounts for only 26%. It depicts that the state policies have more
capacity installations than central level and hence states are more successful to achieving the
targets, but it is not correct observation as, in the state policies development of 1323 MW, only
Gujarat accounts for 860 MW. It means that only 463 MW of solar installation has done under
all state policies except Gujarat.
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The target vs achievements for state policies is –
Graph 1: Targets Vs Achievements of solar capacity under state policies
Here except Gujarat all other states have a huge uncommissioned capacity. On the other hand
under JNNSM the target Vs. achievement is –
Graph 2: Target Vs Achievements of solar energy capacity under JNNSM
Here the capacity addition under JNNSM is much successful and the achievements are
near to targets (Except solar thermal because more complex technology and construction and less
resources availability).
Guja
rat
Karn
atak
a
Rajas
than
MP -I
Mah
arast
hra
AP TN UP
Orris
a
Punj
ab
Bihar MP-II
Chha
ttisa
garh
Karn
atak
a - II
Assa
m
Hary
ana
Uncommissioned 109.6 193 177.9 25 55 914.91 997 200 25 300 250 100 100 50 60 50
Commissioned till march 2014 860.4 17 22.1 175 150 85.09 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
SolarcapacityinMW
State policies target vs achievements
Migration
scheme
Phase1
BatchI(NVVN)
ST (NVVN) RPSSGP Phase 1 Batch II
Uncommissioned 33.5 10 420 9.25 40
Commissioned till march 2014 50.5 140 50 88.8 310
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
SolarCapacityinMW
Target vs achievements JNNSM
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There are many reasons behind this which are aggressive bidding, poor land acquisition process,
less coordination in central and state level government, instability of state governments, without
resources or with less resources set the targets for much higher values. Financial reasons are also
there like delay in PPA agreements, delay in regular and subsidy payments, poor infrastructure.
So over all we can say here that success rate of solar capacity addition is higher of JNNSM than
state policies.
3. Tariff trends under various solar programs –
Gujarat solar policy offered Feed in Tariff first time to the MW size solar projects, the levelised
tariff for the solar projects in Gujarat was Rs 12.54/ kWh, after this Migration scheme under
central level offered FIT to the existing or under construction solar projects. But then because of
cost declining in solar panels and competitive environment in solar industry the competitive
bidding / reverse bidding emerged. In this solar developers has to bed less than the benchmark
tariff defined by CERC or respective SERCs.
While the average tariff achieved in the Phase I batch I of the JNNSM bid was of the order of Rs.
12.14/kWh, it has seen a continuous declining trend and the tariff achieved under the recent bids
of JNNSM were of the order of Rs. 7.49 /kWh[12]
. Due to rapid decline in the cost of solar PV
systems, the CERC benchmark tariff has been continuously on decline mode and has reached to
Rs. 7.72/kWh (without AD benefits) and Rs. 6.95/kWh (with AD benefits) for year 2014-15.
Graph 3: CERC Benchmark tariff trend for SPV and ST
[12]
2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
PV 17.91 15.39 10.39 8.75 7.72
ST 15.31 15.04 12.46 11.9 11.28
0
5
10
15
20
Rs/kWh
CERC Tariff Trend(Levelised)
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The major reason for this decline in the solar power tariffs were due to the global slide down in
the PV module as well as BoS (Balance of System) prices. Taking the clues from the global price
trends CERC has also declined its benchmark prices from 17.91 Rs/kWh to 7.72 Rs/kWh (for
SPV) in the recent tariff order of 2014-15.
The trend of average tariff decided under different policies (State and Central) is shown below in
chronological order of their released year. The yellow line show the CERC benchmark tariff[12]
of the same year.
Graph 4 : Tariff trend of state and Central bids and CERC tariff benchmarking
The tariff in the state bids reached to Rs. 6.49/kWh in the states such as Andhra Pradesh [13]
. The
aggressive tariffs realized in these states bids has made these solar projects non bankable, and
much of this capacity is likely to remain uncommissioned. This is the drawback of reverse
bidding. Advantage of FIT can be shown by Gujarat solar development in which the
achievement rate is highest.
3.1 Analysis between FIT and competitive bidding -
If we compare in the competitive bidding and FIT, the success rate of FIT is much higher than
any other methodology. If we take an example of Chhattisgarh bidding for solar project of 100
MW, the lowest bid offered was 6.3 Rs/ kWh and the highest bid was 7.9 Rs/ kWh. The
weighted average of this bid is about 7.2 Rs/ kWh. Government has to bear the cost of 7.2 Rs/
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Unit in any case, but there is a possibility that the lowest bidder can create any problem by
giving reason of non bankability of project or less financial viable project, which create a
problem to both developer and government to achieve its target. The alternate of this problem is
government can give a FIT, which applicable to all the developers equal to the average price
which is 7.2 Rs/ kWh. This create an environment of equality by which less chances of arising
problems in development of project.
Phase 2 –
In the phase 2 of JNNSM, the bidding process was based on VGF (Viability Gap Funding). For
this in the bidding the maximum VGF allotted in the DCR category is Rs 2.43 Cr/ MW with
capacity of 25 MW, the minimum VGF allotted is Rs. 1.35 Cr/ MW with 10 MW. For open
category the highest VGF of Rs. 1.35 Cr/ MW with 5 MW capacity and the lowest VGF of Rs.
0.175 Cr/ MW were there[10]
. The average VGF in DCR category is Rs 2.06 Cr/ MW and for
open category it is Rs 1.06 Cr/ MW.
Graph 5 : VGF Allotment in JNNSM Phase 2
[10]
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4. Developments under the Rooftop solar & the off grid solar program
Launch of National Solar Mission had also specified targets for the off grid and rooftop solar
power generation. Under Phase I of JNNSM, a separate scheme called ‘Rooftop PV and Small
Scale Solar Generation Program (RPSSGP)’ was implemented for developing solar PV projects
with maximum capacity of 2 MW as rooftop or, small scale ground mounted solar projects. A
total of 100 MW capacities of projects under this program were to be installed and connected at a
level below 33 KV and same GBI linked tariff was provided for both the categories of project.
So far about 98 MW of projects have been installed [7]
under this scheme, which are mostly
ground mounted projects connected to 11 KV substations. There have been rooftop programs
promoted through SECI rooftop solar PV initiatives and so far about 4.5 MW of rooftop solar
projects have been commissioned and 72.3 MW of projects are under implementation.
Rooftop solar PV has significant potential as we are rapidly reaching towards grid parity in this
consumer category. The key to growth for roof top solar is Net metering which allows roof top
owners electrical meter to be bi directional and grid can be used as a storage media for the roof
top solar projects. Many utilities have been discouraging net metering policies, in fact recently
Delhi introduced net-metering for solar rooftop systems.
Utilities in most of the states are experiencing a shift from direct sale to the open access. Open
access allows consumers to optimize their electricity bills and source cheaper electricity through
bilateral PPA from independent elect city generators. In the month of May 2013, the open access
consumer saved 450Cr due to cheaper electricity sourcing due to open access1
. As the spot
electricity prices are fallen by 14% and many solar projects are available to do a bilateral PPA
with the short term sale contract in the range of 4-rs/unit and long term supply contracts 3-4
Rs/kWh. It makes cheaper to source electricity through open access to the commercial
consumers rather than buying electricity from Discoms at a tariff from 7-9Rs/kWh.
In India, the application of rooftop solar PV has a particular significance, given the condition of
its transmission and distribution infrastructure – high losses, poor power quality and frequent
load shedding. Most buildings, public, private and commercial (for example, malls, hotels,
hospitals and nursing homes), have diesel generators for back-up in case of load shedding by the
utility. Given environmental considerations, the use of diesel should be minimized. There is
23 | P a g e
abundant opportunity to use rooftop or building-mounted solar PV systems to generate electricity
and thereby reduce the consumption of diesel. Due to the intermittent supply of solar power and
grid outages, diesel–solar PV hybrid models could be potential solutions. Generous subsidies
have been offered by the Government (both Central and State). Despite this, widespread
installation of solar PV systems to generate electricity on urban rooftops does not seem like a
reality that will take the shape in the near future.
The state with Net metering policy to encourage solar rooftop project are Kerala, Gujarat, Tamil
Nadu, Delhi, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh. Haryana and Utterakhand are also planning to launch its
Net metering policies.
5. Roadmap for 2030
5.1 Roadmap -
India today stands at the cross roads of an indeterminate future. Robust growth for several years
for the first time perhaps has made Indians hopeful and desirous of and also reasonable confident
about the prospects of an annual 7-8 % growth over the long term[14]
. There is a revolution of
expectation and aspirations of the poor and middle class to raise their standards of living.
Urbanization is taking place at a rapid pace, incomes of more and more are growing and
consumerism is spreading. All this requires substantial availability of affordable energy supplies.
This is where the problem starts. India has been consistently facing power deficits because of
burgeoning power demand and supply constantly short. Demand is likely to continue to make a
steep ascent. Supply from conventional sources, however, is increasingly becoming a problem –
whether it is coal, nuclear, large hydro or natural gas. It is clear that the demand supply gap is
going to continue and may rise. Part of power shortage is being met through use of fossil fuels,
whether diesel for power or kerosene for lighting, both of which are substantially subsidised
along with natural gas.
The Integrated Energy Policy of the Planning Commission in its Report in 2006 had for the first
time estimated the likely future demand by 2032 and possible sources of supply. The demand
was estimated to require about 800 GW generation capacity[15]
. Of this renewable energy (minus
large hydro) was estimated to be about 100 GW contributing about 5-6% of the electricity. It was
assumed that this capacity would largely come from wind and biomass. Under the same
chairmanship of Dr Kirit Parikh, the Report of strategies to adopt a low carbon growth have
24 | P a g e
suggested that renewable energy sources should constitute 33% of capacity generating about
18% of the electricity by 2032. Both solar and wind have been estimated at about 100 GW each.
KPMG had in its Report ‘The Rising Sun” in Sept 2012, talked of 68 GW by 2022[16]
. Thus there
seems to be a developing assumption that 100 GW should be the target for 2032. The Planning
Commission is also perhaps thinking on those lines.
While this seems to very encouraging we would like to introduce a word of caution. One of the
major problems of the conventional power sector in India has been consistent over projection of
capacities and planning in that manner, with equally consistent and substantial shortfalls. We
should not start the same way for solar. It would be desirable to be more realistic and proceed in
a systematic way. There are several reasons for this. There are the requirements of land and
transmission which need to be met. There will be a huge requirement for financing. There will
need to be large imports or domestic capacity neither of which appears desirable at the moment.
Finally, we should develop more capacity when the costs are lower and the cost of conventional
power will become more and save on avoidable costs which will be shared between the
consumer and the Government, as well make the utilities more comfortable in, and perhaps more
desirous of, buying solar power. In other words, we should hasten slowly and accelerate after
attainment of grid parity. Nothing prevents India from doing more after 2020 if the
circumstances so warrant. In the meanwhile, we should start developing infrastructure for doing
100 GW by 2030. Infrastructure must precede installation.
The Solar Mission had targeted 22000 MW by 2022[7]
– this was a somewhat arbitrary figure.
Therefore, if we cannot reach it, it does not matter too much. The reason for not meeting it would
partly be because the States have largely failed and Phase II got rather delayed. Given that India
did not have any experience with solar, and general costs were still high, this was considered
ambitious by many. So was it intended to be. It was also intended to make sure that make serious
time bound efforts were made. It appeared feasible also, especially to those who could see the
path ahead. Today, most observers feel that this will be exceeded. But we should avoid over
enthusiasm. A less than 1 % difference in total electricity generation because of a few thousand
MW of solar will not make much difference to the power situation in the country in 2022. Much
more difference will be made in the short term if we sort out our problems with indigenous coal
25 | P a g e
supply. It is important that the annual demand be carefully calibrated. Currently ad-hocism and
uncertainty rule, both in policy and in quantity, thus negating benefits which may accrue, or
unnecessarily imposing costs without commensurate gains. Uncertain quantities are being
announced by the Government of India under the JNNSM with different policies even as
uncertain quantities are being announced from time to time by States with no guarantee of time
schedules and with policies different from the Centre. In between sudden announcements are
made of large ultra-size projects at different locations with uncertainties regarding who will build
and under what conditions. One could say that this does not create a proper market.
5.2 Phased Development till 2030
We consider that the solar PV development till 2030 will take place in three phases. The first
phase of development is considered till 2017 until we reach to grid parity. The second phase of
development will take place during 2020 to 2030, wherein solar will solar become competitive to
grid power. The third phase of development is considered from 2030 to 2050, where is large
scale diffusion of solar power will take place for general purpose use.
During the first phase it is expected that the PV penetration will take place at slower pace and
utility scale grid connected projects will be largely implemented through government support
policies such as RPOs. During this phase some of the residential and commercial consumers will
find rooftop solar PV economically attractive and the PV generation cost is expected to range
between 5 – 7 Rs/ kWh depending on the site specific solar irradiance level. During this phase
retail electricity price will increase by 2017 and utility scale grid connected solar power will
reach to cost competitiveness with conventional power.
In order to achieve the targets of the first phase, PV will require supportive policy framework
and various other incentives.
During the second phase of development (2017 - 2030), this roadmap envisage, that PV will
achieve grid parity and become competitive at a much broader scale. During this phase the PV
system cost are expected in the range of 3 – 5 Rs/ kWh and will be cheaper than the wholesale
electricity prices. The annual market volume for installation will reach to about 7 – 10 GW per
year leading to a cumulative install capacity of almost 100 GW by 2032. during this phase
26 | P a g e
economic incentives to promote solar PV will be gradually phased out, however government
support the open access and net metering in a consistent manner.
During the third phase (2032 - 2050), Solar will be adopted for general purpose use other than
electricity requirement, e.g. electric vehicle charging and various other applications. The typical
cost of solar power is expected to range between 2 – 4 Rs/ kWh. During this phase the annual
Solar PV installation are expected to be of the order of 10 – 15 GW. The total cumulative
installed capacity of the country is expected to reach to 350 GW by 2030.
5.3 Capacity Requirement by 2030
Renewable will play important role to bridge the supply demand gap in future, it is expected that
during 12th
plan 88 GW capacity will be added through conventional sources and 33 GW will by
renewable, of which solar power will contribute to about 10.5 GW. Similarly during 13th plant
about 86 GW will be added through conventional power sources and about 35 GW will be added
through renewable sources of which solar will contribute to about 15 GW. The renewable
purchase obligation specified to various states will drive the future installations of solar power in
the country.
Government of India has provided the plant targets up to 15th (2017-2032) plan[15]
. As per these
targets the electricity demand in the country is projected to 712 GW by end of 15th plan. the
targets during the 14th and 15th five year plan are derived based on 7.16 % and 6.22 % CAGR
respectively. If we consider the demand growth of 6 % CAGR the electricity demand in the
country is expected to about 1388 GW by 2030, almost 5.7 times of present demand. In view of
the envisage increasing contribution of solar PV in Indian electricity system it is expected that
solar PV will contribute 14 % of total energy generation by 2030 and 25% of total energy
generation by 2050[14]
.
6. Grid Parity in solar energy –
Grid Parity refers to the moment when PV can produce electricity (LCOE) at a price below the
price of electricity from grid. This is true in case of a consumer (residential, commercial, or
industrial) who pays the price of electricity to a utility. Here two renowned research firms’
27 | P a g e
publications referred for projecting the grid parity in India for solar energy, i.e. KPMG’s “The
Rising Sun” and AT Kearney’s “Solar Power and India’s Energy Future” [17]
.
As per the KPMG report[16]
the grid parity to these consumers is expected to reach by 2017.
However reaching at this grid parity levels, we can only promoted some residential, commercial,
and industrial rooftop systems. However the grid parity needs to be re-evaluated against the
average procurement price of the distribution utility and solar power needs to compete with the
conventional power, then only the grid parity achievements can be considered. The current
APPC (Average Pooled Power Cost) of utilities is of the order of Rs. 3/kWh, and the grid parity
to the distribution utilities can only justified once the solar power is competing in terms of the
purchasing decisions of the distribution utilities.
It means the grid parity needs to be categorized in two broad categories;
a. Grid parity to the consumers
b. Grid parity to the utilities
Once the grid parity reaches to the consumer’s level, this will lead to the increased self
consumption through the solar PV and this will promote the rooftop PV systems largely. In fact
the promotional policies such as net metering at this juncture will lead to self consumption of
solar electricity and feeding the remaining power back to the grid and the consumers will
become the producers of electricity once the grid parity reaches to the consumer’s level. Grid
parity will pave a way through which large consumers will become the producers of electricity
and may put a threat to the distribution utilities. While it is true that India will reach to grid parity
(Consumer level) soon, it is going to take some time when the solar power become cheaper
option to the utility as conventional power sources.
The wholesale procurement level for utilities, the marginal cost of power procurement is in the
range of INR 4.00-5.50 per unit. In many states, which after adding the costs of transmission and
distribution and associated losses comes to INR 5.50 -7.50 per unit as delivered to the consumer.
Off-grid systems including hybrid PV/diesel has already reached to the grid parity and the
electricity from the solar PV is cheaper as compared to the conventional power in these
consumers.
28 | P a g e
As per the KPMG report grid parity for utility scale solar could happen in the period 2017-19.
Beyond this point there will be rapid increase in the conventional power, however the cost of
solar power will continue in the decline mode. However, given the barriers to implementation,
such as possible changes to the regulatory environment and access to finance, we expect installed
capacity to increase to about 372 GW by 2022 [14]
.
Graph 6: KPMG The Rising Sun, Grid Parity representation
[16]
There have been many predictions of grid parity. The projections of different reports for solar
energy in future in India and for Grid parity by different consulting and government firms are
shown below –
Table 7: Prediction and projections for solar industry in India by different reports [15][16][17]
Reports Projections Grid Parity
Planning Commission of
India : Low carbon
Strategies
Solar + Wind energy will contribute to 427 BU of
total 3466 BU in 2030, which is 12.32 %. Capacity
will be 225 GW (Solar + Wind) out of total 698
GW which is 32.5 %. (100 GW for Solar)
According to
NSM till 2022
CEA : 18th Electric Power
Survey
Total Energy requirement till 2032 in 3710 BU
and total installation capacity will be 541 GW
-
29 | P a g e
Power Grid : Desert
Power India 2050
Till 2032 the installed capacity will be 712 GW
with peak demand of 542 GW and renewable share
of 235 GW, Till 2050 Installed capacity will be
1388 GW with Maximum demand of 896 GW and
share of renewable of 485 GW.
2018 (As per
Market
Analysis)
JNNSM : Towards
Building SOLAR INDIA
20000 MW of solar installation till 2022, 100 GW
of solar installation till 2032 (according to
Planning commission)
grid parity till
2022 and coal
parity till 2030
AT Kearney : Solar Power
and India's Energy Future
India can increase solar power
capacity to more than 50 GW by 2022. The solar
industry’s structure will rapidly evolve as solar
reaches grid parity with conventional power
between 2016 and 2018
grid parity till
2016 to 2018
KPMG : The rising Sun PV market will grow to 12.5 GW by 2016 - 2017 grid parity till
2017 to 2018
Perhaps here it needs to be a bit conservative when we are determining policy. It appears that we
should stick by grid parity expectations by 2017, It is for this reason that we are suggesting that
we gradually increase annual capacity rather than going in for large expansion now, as appears to
be the planning.
7. Challenges –
While India is planning to go for 100GW solar PV installations by 2030, there are numerous
challenges not only related to the affordable solar, but the major challenge is that how the Indian
grid system will cope with high shares of PV electricity, which is variable in nature. The cost
decline in the solar PV will create interest of the consumers, however the PV system reliability
remains the major challenge, and future grid management methods will surely address this issue.
The current approach allows plants to be set up anywhere which the developer has identified. A
lot of effort is required by the developer to identify, procure and possess the land. There are also
uncertainties. The recent retrospective change in land prices for solar projects in Rajasthan
including for projects already bid out reflect one danger. Some States want to give land free
which is not correct. The utility is required to develop the transmission. Often there are problems
between the developer and the utility related to this. Neither effort may be the most optimum.
This also needs to extra expense and mutual recriminations. Therefore, there is a need to do a
macro and micro load and locational planning exercise. A Task Force should be immediately set
30 | P a g e
up which would prepare such a plan based on a combination of study of load which means where
the electricity generated during the day time would be most suitable; the availability of non-
agricultural land; reasonably good radiation; requirements of scheduling and grid management;
consequent transmission needs etc. This would mean identification of locations which would
have a capacity of 100 GW. The identified locations could have solar parks from capacity of 100
– 500 MW, or in a few cases, even more. The identified land should be acquired by the Central
or State Government as decided by the concerned State, and as soon as possible. It is like a land
bank. It is important to do this now because land is increasingly becoming a scarce resource and
costly. There should be a scheme where the Central Government provides substantial assistance
for building the infrastructure at these sites which can be calculated on a MW basis. There could
be several possibilities. The Task Force should also come out with the alternatives and the
Government take a final decision within a year. Locations should be prioritised for the setting up
of plants and their capacities. When bidding is done under the JNNSM, plants should only be set
up in these parks starting with category A parks. All developers will know the land/infrastructure
cost. And they will not need to spend time and resources on procurement of land. Our attempt
should be to give these facilities at the lowest cost, though there can be a revision of costs for
every round of bidding. This will also enable same costs for park and infrastructure across the
country so that bids are not affected by this factor.
There has been an issue regarding the absence of proper information on solar radiation. Some
measuring stations were set up in the initial stage of the JNNSM. More have since been
proposed, although they have got delayed. It is essential that there is proper information. The
best way would be to immediately install these stations in the lands identified for solar parks.
Further, this information was meant to be a public good and available with no guarantees but
free. It is sad that C WET is charging money for this. This is a small cost which is necessary for
the provision of proper infrastructure.
Some states have already started setting up of parks. They should be encouraged. This activity
should not be allowed to happen in an ad hoc manner by itself. Other than assistance provided to
build the infrastructure for the park, there should be no other element in the policy regarding how
will the power generated be sold. That would be identified in the bidding process. We are hoping
that for the next several years this would be part of the bundling process. The compulsion will
31 | P a g e
only be to put the plants in the designated plots in the bidding process or plants set up under the
Mission. The most innovative approach would be to set up a Solar Park Authority of India as an
autonomous body. Capital costs will largely be met by the Government of India. Thereafter, it
should be easy to manage the operational costs.
Furthermore, to achieve the ambitious target of 100 GW till 2030, major challenges can be listed
out, which are shown below –
a) Constrain of transmission of power
b) Land and Power evacuation
c) Variability in generation
d) Problem of Financing
e) Improper solar resource data
f) Supply chain constrain
g) Policy uncertainty
These points can be elaborated here –
7.1 Constrain of transmission of power –
Solar power require only sun for running fuel, but this feature of solar plant give it some
limitations. For a large or MW size solar plant the place for establishment is much
specific. Because of huge land requirement and more sunny days in a year, a solar plant is
best placed in desert area, where waste land is available in abundant amount. In India
four major places are there which can be idle for solar power generation as for
availability of waste land and good sunny days, they are Thar desert, Runn of Kutch, Leh
& Laddakh, Lahul & Spiti[14]
. Now the problem occur as the load centers are very far and
even in the different sates than the states where plants are situated. It requires additional
transmission capability to handle and transfer the generated electric power of these solar
plants which are concentrated on a place to the different locations where load centres are
placed. Present transmission capability of India is not enough to transfer this much
amount of electric power. It again create an additional financial demand to establish this
kind of transmission infrastructure.
32 | P a g e
7.2 Land and Power evacuation –
As solar power plant require a huge amount of land of about 35 MW/ sq. km [14]
. For the
power requirement of 100 GW the land requirement is very high, for normal land it is not
possible to establish a solar plant as of high land cost and second is wastage of a
cultivable land. So wasteland is the only solution for this problem.
On the other hand for a solar power plant the proper evacuation facility for electric power
is strongly needed as loss of energy generated from solar, is a costly loss than any other
plant. Government should provide facilities like solar parks where power evacuation
facility are provided by the responsible agency of government itself.
7.3 Variability in Generation –
Solar energy is a very variable power because it depends on the solar insolation coming
to the earth at that place. This can be affected a number of times in a day, because of
haze, clouds etc. and for the whole day also the solar insolations not remain same, solar
plant can work only for day time not in the night. These are the things which make a solar
plant to produce variable electricity.
But the load has its variation which are completely different with the production
variation. To meet those variation of load there is requirement of peak load power plants
like Pumped storage hydro plant or Gas/ Diesel operated plants.
These reserve power plants are again additional cost to the infrastructure requirement for
solar power plants.
7.4 Problem in Financing –
Solar power plant requires a lot of money, about 7 – 8 Crores/ MW, although the cost of a
solar plant is continuously decreasing but then also it requires a high initial cost. For a
target of 100 GW solar plant it requires a huge amount of money.
Financing of a solar project is a big problem which can be counter by EXIM banks, other
investment banks, government funds. Other than national options, World bank funding or
loans are also alternative options for the capital requirement.
7.5 Improper solar resource data –
Solar industry is a new sector not only for India but in the world also. For modelling and
simulating a solar plant an adequate solar resource data required to maximise the yield
and revenue of a plant. Firstly NASA has given the world wide solar radiation data,
33 | P a g e
which is the most trusted data. But this data is also not so specific. For India like CWET
no organisation is there for monitoring the solar radiation data and plant performance
index according to the land meteo specification.
There is a requirement to assess the solar data to find the most suitable location for the
upcoming solar plants.
7.6 Supply Chain constrain –
For a huge amount of solar installation there are so many things required which are not
available in the country presently. First if all the solar PV panel which are made of silicon
is come on the first place, till now there are only few companies which manufacture the
solar PV cells. Import of solar PV panel is a big problem. Better government policies for
domestic solar industry are strongly recommended to encourage them to adopt new
technologies and less expensive PV modules.
Other than the PV panels the BOS system for the level of 100 GW is also a challenging
task.
7.7 Policy uncertainty –
For a rapid and stable development in a newly and premature industry solar PV industry,
a good and strong policy framework is required. As the solar plants have higher cost and
high initial investment the revenue and payback time of these plants spreads to several
years. For this guaranteed revenue and payback strong policy background required.
Policy uncertainty can cause many damages to the project developers.
8. Conclusion –
As discussed above in the analysis part of solar installation, we can depict that the success rate of
installation and achieving the targets for solar capacity addition is much higher in the central
government programs (MNRE), as compared to the development under state policies (except
Gujarat). India has its requirement and hence its ambitious objectives to produce solar energy of
the order of 100 GW by 2030[14][15],
this is really a challenging target for the country like India.
Learning from the JNNSM phase 1 and implementation of it in the existing and coming
programs can create an rapid and stable development of solar power in India. Learning like better
land acquisition policies and support, better financing options and support of EXIM banks,
34 | P a g e
providing FIT if required, rigid and concrete policy framework, less time delay process of
auxiliary permissions, better power evacuation infrastructure provision, these all are the points
which can be work as catalyst for our solar energy programs.
In the scenario of tariff decision for the bidding, weather state or central level, there are various
methods like competitive bidding, FIT provision, L1 imposing to all developers etc. From all the
available methods it is seen from the results that FIT is the most successful method for successful
completion of the project (Ex. Gujarat solar program). As the analysis result above the Fit and
weighted average tariff is approximately same for a government. Then FIT should be given to
the developers than any other alternative.
Establishing solar parks or solar park authority is also a good option for rapid development, as
better evacuation and other infrastructure availability can attract an investor more effectively.
India is moving ahead to the greener future, some help by strong policy framework by the
government side can create a revolution in the field of solar energy capacity addition in India.
35 | P a g e
9. References –
[1] Naveen Kumar Sharma, Prashant Kumar Tiwari, Yog Raj Sood; “Solar energy in India:
Strategies, policies, perspectives and future potential”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
reviews, 2012; 16:933-941
[2] Zhi Qiang, Sun Honghang, Li Yanxi, Xu Yurui, Su Jun; “China’s solar photovoltaic policy:
An analysis based on policy instruments”, Applied Energy, 2014; 129: 308-319
[3] Chi-Jen Yang; “Reconsidering solar grid parity”, Energy Policy, 2010; 38:3270-3273
[4] Sufang Zhang, Yongxiu He; “Analysis on the development and policy of solar PV power in
China”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy reviews, 2013; 21: 393-401
[5] Jinho Jung, Wallace E. Tyner; “Economic and Policy analysis for solar PV system in
Indiana”, 2014; IN: 47907-2056
[6] Raymond Hudson, Gred Heilscher; “PV Grid Integration – System Management Issues and
Utility Concerns”, Energy procedia, 2012; 25: 82-92
[7] Ministry of New Renewable Energy(2012): “JNNSM Phase II Policy Document” available at
http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/draft-jnnsmpd-2.pdf
[8] Ministry of New Renewable Energy(2014): “Annual Report 2013 - 2014” document
available at http://mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/publications/annual-report-2/
[9] Gujarat Solar Policy (2009): “Solar Power Policy 2009” available at http://mnre.gov.in/file-
manager/UserFiles/guidelines_sbd_tariff_gridconnected_res/Gujarat%20Solar%20Power%20Pol
icy%202009.pdf
[10]SECI press release: Feb- 2014, list of JNNSM Phase 2 bidders; available at
http://www.seci.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/files/Final%20allocation%20list_750%20MW%281%
29.pdf
[11] RPO targets of India, from 2012 to 2022, available at
http://www.firstgreen.co/2014/07/solar-rpo-targets-for-india/
[12] CERC annual tariff orders for renewable energy; from 2010 to 2014, available at
http://www.cercind.gov.in/Final-Tariff_14.html
36 | P a g e
[13] Central Power distribution company of AP; “Andhra Pradesh Solar Policy & Discom
Perspective”, 2013; available at http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/presentations-
23052013/APCPDCL.pdf
[14] Power Grid; 2013, “Desert Power India 2050” available at,
http://www.powergridindia.com/_layouts/PowerGrid/WriteReadData/file/ourBusiness/SmartGrid
/desert_power_india.pdf
[15] Planning Commission, 2014, “The Final Report of the Expert Group on Low Carbon
Strategies for Inclusive Growth”, available at
http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/rep_carbon2005.pdf
[16] KPMG; 2012, “The Rising Sun”, available at
https://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/the-rising-
sun-grid.pdf
[17] AT Kearney, 2013; “Solar Power and India’s Energy Future” available at
http://www.atkearney.in/documents/10192/692844/Solar+Power+in+India+-
+Preparing+to+Win.pdf/b6b34499-8285-4813-9d66-ecdc293a8537

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The policy frame work for development of solar power in india

  • 1. 1 | P a g e A SEMINAR REPORT ON “THE POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOLAR POWER IN INDIA” Submitted in Partial Fulfillment for the Award of Master of Technology (M.Tech.) Degree of Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur 2014-2015 Supervised By: Submitted By: Dr. G. D. Agarwal Gaurav Gupta Associate Professor, (2013PCV5068) Department of Mechanical Engineering, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Energy and Environment, MNIT Jaipur CENTRE FOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT MALAVIYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JAIPUR JLN MARG, JAIPUR, RAJASTHAN-302017
  • 2. 2 | P a g e MALAVIYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JAIPUR CENTRE FOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT JAIPUR – 302017 (RAJASTHAN) INDIA CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the seminar entitled “The Policy Framework for Development of Solar Power in India” that is being submitted by Gaurav Gupta and approved for submission in partial fulfilment for the Master of Technology in Renewable Energy, Centre for Energy and Environment during academic session 2013-2015. Date: Dr. G. D. Agarwal Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Energy and Environment, Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur, Rajasthan
  • 3. 3 | P a g e ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am highly obliged to my esteemed supervisor and guide Dr. G. D. Agarwal, Associate Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering for his continuous guidance throughout the period of my studies. His valuable suggestions and discussions were always helpful and inspiring. Also, his support and encouragement were my greatest motive to aim for the best. I feel great full to express my heartiest thanks to Dr. Jyotirmay Mathur (HOD, Center for Energy and Environment) for trusting and supporting me and Dr. Rajesh Kumar, Associate Professor Department of Electrical Engineering for their constant support and encouragement to the great completion. Gaurav Gupta Renewable Energy (2013PCV5068)
  • 4. 4 | P a g e ABSTRACT India is targeting for large scale solar deployment in next decade, while the Government is not yet prepared to reach that target with suitable policies. “The Policy framework for development of Solar power in India” is prepared for achieving the target of India through change in various policies. The report will give the idea of trend of policies adopted in past and will give the future perspective for the development of policies in Solar PV sector so as to reach the targets set by Indian Government. This policy framework also highlights the challenges for grid integration of solar power to existing system. It also projects need of promoting the off grid solar PV in remote areas, and specify the policy framework to achieve the planned targets by 2030 and to meet the Government of India's climate change targets, & initial experiences through JNNSM & state level achievements of solar power targets. The report also tells about grid parity projections for solar energy, which is essential to develop decentralized solar plants.
  • 5. 5 | P a g e Table of Contents CERTIFICATE......................................................................................................................... 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT........................................................................................................ 3 ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................... 4 1. Introduction –....................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Literature Review – ........................................................................................................... 9 1.2 History of solar policy development in India –............................................................... 10 2. Present Capacity Installed under various programs –........................................................ 11 2.1 Central Level policy development –................................................................................ 12 2.2 State level policies development -................................................................................... 14 2.3 RPO and REC programs - ............................................................................................... 15 2.4 Analysis for State vs Central development –................................................................... 16 3. Tariff trends under various solar programs –..................................................................... 19 3.1 Analysis between FIT and competitive bidding -............................................................ 20 4. Developments under the Rooftop solar & the off grid solar program ............................... 22 5. Roadmap for 2030.............................................................................................................. 23 5.1 Roadmap -........................................................................................................................ 23 5.2 Phased Development till 2030......................................................................................... 25 5.3 Capacity Requirement by 2030 ....................................................................................... 26 6. Grid Parity in solar energy –.............................................................................................. 26 7. Challenges –....................................................................................................................... 29 7.1 Constrain of transmission of power –.............................................................................. 31 7.2 Land and Power evacuation –.......................................................................................... 32 7.3 Variability in Generation –.............................................................................................. 32 7.4 Problem in Financing –.................................................................................................... 32 7.5 Improper solar resource data – ........................................................................................ 32 7.6 Supply Chain constrain –................................................................................................. 33 7.7 Policy uncertainty –.................................................................................................... 33 8. Conclusion – ...................................................................................................................... 33 9. References –....................................................................................................................... 35
  • 6. 6 | P a g e Table of Graphs Graph 2: Targets Vs Achievements of solar capacity under state policies................................... 18 Graph 3: Target Vs Achievements of solar energy capacity under JNNSM ................................ 18 Graph 4: CERC Benchmark tariff trend for SPV and ST[12] ........................................................ 19 Graph 5 : Tariff trend of state and Central bids and CERC tariff benchmarking......................... 20 Graph 6 : VGF Allotment in JNNSM Phase 2[10] ......................................................................... 21 Graph 7: KPMG The Rising Sun, Grid Parity representation[16] .................................................. 28 List of Figures Table 1: All India Solar capacity installation State wise [8] .......................................................... 12 Table 2: JNNSM Targets .............................................................................................................. 13 Table 3: Capacity Installation in JNNSM Phase 1........................................................................ 13 Table 4: Solar capacity targets and achievements under state policies (bidding Completed)...... 14 Table 5 : Solar RFP released but not bidded under state policies................................................. 15 Table 6: Solar RPO Targets for India ........................................................................................... 16 Table 7: Prediction and projections for solar industry in India by different reports [15][16][17] 28 List of Tables Table 1: All India Solar capacity installation State wise [8] .......................................................... 12 Table 2: JNNSM Targets .............................................................................................................. 13 Table 3: Capacity Installation in JNNSM Phase 1........................................................................ 13 Table 4: Solar capacity targets and achievements under state policies (bidding Completed)...... 14 Table 5 : Solar RFP released but not bidded under state policies................................................. 15 Table 6: Solar RPO Targets for India ........................................................................................... 16 Table 7: Prediction and projections for solar industry in India by different reports [15][16][17] 28
  • 7. 7 | P a g e Short Form Used JNNSM Jawahar lal Nehru National Solar Mission NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change SECI Solar Energy Center of India RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation REC Renewable Energy Certification MNRE Ministry of New Renewable Energy SNA State Nodal Agency CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Commission SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission SPV Solar Photo Voltaic ST Solar Thermal EXIM Export Import RFP Request for Proposal
  • 8. 8 | P a g e 1. Introduction – India is a country which is blessed with the sunshine and abounded solar energy, according to its geographical location. India has a potential of producing 5000 trillion units (kWh)[7] of clean energy. India has on an average of 300 days of good sunshine over a year with an insolation of about 4 to 7 kWh for every square meter each day. Now Indian government is giving emphasis to harness this unlimited natural power of solar, which if synthesizes efficiently it accounts to counter our energy deficit scenario without affecting the environment and giving a hand to the clean energy production or low carbon emission. Currently with central government, a number of state governments are also initiated their solar energy programs to fulfill their energy requirement by clean energy. In the near future India and China will be the main market in the world for solar industry, as European countries has done their efforts before us and they have land problems also. The map of India for estimating of annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) by NREL is shown below – Figure 1: India GHI Map [7]
  • 9. 9 | P a g e 1.1 Literature Review – The Policy framework for development of Solar in India is prepared for achieving the target of India through change in various policies. This also highlight the need of promoting the off grid solar PV in rural areas, and specify the policy framework to achieve the planned targets by 2030 and to meet the Government of India's climate change targets, & initial experiences through JNNSM & state level achievements of solar power targets. Naveen Kumar Sharma[1] in “Solar energy in India: Strategies, policies, perspectives and future potential” has said that India has a severe electricity shortage. It needs massive additions in capacity to meet the demand of its rapidly growing economy. Development of solar energy, which is indigenous and distributed and has low marginal cost of generation, can increase energy security by diversifying supply, reducing import dependence, and mitigating fuel price volatility. Zhi Qiang [2] in “China’s solar photovoltaic policy: An analysis based on policy instruments” has said that examines the development history of China’s PV industry policy system from the perspective of industrial policies and compares China with United States, Germany and Japan from the perspective of both supply-side and demand-side policies. The study found that for the market demand-side, China’s policies focus on government regulations and concentrate mainly on the product popularization and application stages, with insufficient investment in R&D in the early stage. Chi-Jen Yang [3] in “Reconsidering solar grid parity” has given Grid parity–reducing the cost of solar energy to be competitive with conventional grid-supplied electricity–has long been hailed as the tipping point for solar dominance in the energy mix. Such expectations are likely to be overly optimistic. A realistic examination of grid parity suggests that the cost-effectiveness of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems may be further away than many are hoping for. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness may not guarantee commercial competitiveness. Solar hot water technology is currently far more cost-effective than photovoltaic technology and has already reached grid parity in many places.
  • 10. 10 | P a g e Sufang Zhang [4] in “Analysis on the development and policy of solar PV power in China” has said China’s PV industry has developed rapidly in recent years due to the dramatic demand from the world market. In contrast, until 2010 China’s domestic PV market has been very small due to lack of sufficient incentives in the country to promote domestic PV deployment. However, since early 2009 many incentives have been implemented in China. The paper makes analysis on China’s solar PV incentive policies, particularly the national FIT scheme. Jinho Jung [5] in “Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana” given In the economic analyses and the case without net-metering, the larger system is less attractive than the smaller one even though the larger system generates more electricity. These systems do not include net-metering with which customers can take advantage of the larger system. Without net- metering, excess electricity would be discarded instead of being sold to the utility. Thus, the larger system shows lower economic viability. Raymond Hudson [6] in “PV Grid Integration – System Management Issues and Utility Concerns” has given Solar PV systems have evolved from small stand-alone applications through residential and commercial systems to MW-scale installations and groups of systems that feed significant energy into the utility grid. High PV penetration levels create a number of challenges forth management of the operation of the utility grid. This paper will cover the current and historic status of the integration of renewable energies into utility grids over a variety of global regions. This includes grid control and network planning. 1.2 History of solar policy development in India – After launching the Indian NAPCC plan on June 30, 2008, India launched its ambitious 8 national mission, in which Jawahar Lal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)[7] was also launched in 2010, to harness India’s solar power to produce electricity by clean technology. But for India the starting of MW size solar power plants or big scale solar plants was not the JNNSM, before this mission in the year of Jan – 2009 Gujarat was the first state to start its own solar policy to develop on grid solar power plants. After that in between of the JNNSM phase 1, some other states of india also came with their state solar policy for adding solar capacity parallelly, which were Karnataka (Feb – 2011) and Rajasthan (April – 2011).
  • 11. 11 | P a g e Now about 15 states has its own solar installation under construction solar capacity. The order of these state and central policies can be depicted below (Chronological Order) – Figure 2 : Solar Policy launching in chronological order Presently Gujarat has the highest capacity of about 916 MW[8] (total capacity including all policies) but still have enough potential for more installation. Some states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir are the states which still underachiever in the field of solar energy with more than enough potential to harness. 2. Present Capacity Installed under various programs – Current scenario of solar installation status on pan India basis is 2631.9 MW[8] by the march 2014. Here we can segregate this installation of solar in four main categories which is Central Level (MNRE), State level (All State renewable agencies), under Renewable purchase obligation (RPO), and under Renewable Energy Certification(REC). In this also the major portion is covered by first two categories which is Central level and state level development i.e. 687.8 MW and 1322.6 MW respectively, and remaining capacity is about 580.6 under RPO and REC Schemes. The other miscellaneous installation of 41 MW has done under programs like private initiative and CPSUs.
  • 12. 12 | P a g e All this breakup has done in whole India in different states, the breakup of all installation is shown below in the table – Table 1: All India Solar capacity installation State wise [8] Sr. No. State/UT Total MNRE Projects MW State Policy MW RPO MW REC Scheme MW Pvt. Initiative (Roof top) MW CPSUs MW Total commissioned cap. till 31-3-14 (MW) 1 Andhra Pradesh 46.75 85.09 131.84 2 Arunachal Pradesh 0.025 0.025 3 Chhattisgarh 4 3.1 7.1 4 Gujarat 0 860.4 50 6 916.4 5 Haryana 7.8 2.5 10.3 6 Jharkhand 16 16 7 Karnataka 5 17 9 31 8 Kerala 0.025 0.025 9 Madhya Pradesh 5.35 175 166.815 347.165 10 Maharashtra 47 150 49.25 3 249.25 11 Orissa 13 5 2.5 10 30.5 12 Punjab 9.325 7.52 16.845 13 Rajasthan 493.5 22.1 40 174.5 730.1 14 Tamil Nadu 16 3 78.86 0.5 98.36 15 Uttar Pradesh 12.375 8.7 21.075 16 Uttarakhand 5.05 5.05 17 West Bengal 2.05 5 7.05 18 Andaman & Nicobar 0.1 5 5.1 19 Delhi 0.885 2.14 2.1288 5.1538 20 Lakshadweep 0.75 0.75 21 Puducherry 0.025 0.025 22 Chandigarh 2 2 23 Others 0.79 0.79 TOTAL 687.8 1322.59 90 490.685 15.6288 25.2 2631.9038 2.1 Central Level policy development – After the NAPCC in 2008 India launched its first National Mission for solar energy which was dedicated to the big scale (MW size) solar plants. On February 2010 Central government started the highly ambitious solar mission for India named as Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
  • 13. 13 | P a g e (JNNSM) which gave a roadmap to Indian solar industry for its future with a target of 22000 MW installation of solar power by 2022. JNNSM[7] comprises three stages of development solar power under three different categories of a) grid connected solar plants b) Off grid solar plants and c) Solar thermal collectors. Table 2: JNNSM Targets Phase 1 - Under the JNNSM before the phase 1, Migration policy came first on February 2010, in this Feed in Tariff (FIT) scheme were given to all the solar plant developers which had already under construction plants under any other program. MNRE offered them the FIT of 17.91 Rs/ kWh[7] . After that Phase 1 started with two batches as batch 1 and batch 2 which consist of competitive bidding process. The target and achievements of these programs are given below in the table – Table 3: Capacity Installation in JNNSM Phase 1 Sections Migration scheme BatchI(NVVN) ST (NVVN) RPSSGP Batch II Target (MW) 84 150 470 98.05 350 Commissioned till march 2014 (MW) 50.5 140 50 88.8 310 Uncommissioned (MW) 33.5 10 420 9.25 40 In the batch 1 of Phase 1 of JNNSM for solar thermal also the target was fixed at 470 MW but it was not achieved successfully as of current installation in this section is about only 50 MW, because of complex technology and construction. S. No. Type of plant Phase I (2010 – 2013) Cumulative target of Phase 2 (2013 – 2017) Cumulative target of Phase 3 (2017 – 2022) 1 Utility grid power 1100 MW 10,000 MW 20,000 MW 2 Off Grid Solar Application 200 MW 1000 MW 2000 MW 3 Solar Thermal Collectors 7 million sq. Mt. 15 million sq. Mt. 20 million sq. Mt.
  • 14. 14 | P a g e To develop and encourage small solar programs and rooftop applications RPSSGP program was uninitiated under phase 1. Under which 88.8 MW achieved of the target of 98 MW which was also much dominating in the small solar programs and very less in rooftop solar. Phase 2 – In JNNSM Phase 2[10] , total 68 bids were received from 58 developers, covering 122 projects with a cumulative capacity of 2,170 MW. Of this, 36 projects with a capacity of 700 MW opted to bid under the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) part A of the bidding process and the remaining 86 projects with a capacity of 1,470 MW opted for the open category Part B. Each part eventually got allocated an equal 375 MW capacity projects, so it is 750 MW[10] . 2.2 State level policies development - In India Mega Watt (MW) size installation of solar energy started with the state level policies only, which was Gujarat Solar Policy 2009[9] . Under this policy first time Feed in Tariff (FIT) was offered to the plant developers to encourage them and attract to this solar industry which was very expensive one at that time. After Gujarat JNNSM phase Ist Karnataka and Rajasthan came with its first solar policies. Currently about 15 states has its solar energy programs in which 10 states have its programs with bidded capacity of 4360 MW, on other hand about 1210 MW capacity of solar PV is under pipeline of the state policy of which RFP has released but the bidding is in under process. The status installed solar capacity under all state policies is shown below – Table 4: Solar capacity targets and achievements under state policies (bidding Completed) Policies Target (MW) Commissioned till march 2014 (MW) Uncommissioned (MW) Gujarat 970 860.4 109.6 Karnataka 210 17 193 Rajasthan 200 22.1 177.9 MP –I 200 175 25 AP 1000 85.09 914.91
  • 15. 15 | P a g e TN 1000 3 997 UP 200 0 200 Orrisa 30 5 25 Punjab 300 0 300 MP-II 100 0 100 Chattisagarh 100 0 100 Karnataka II 50 0 50 Total 4360 1168 3192.41 Here we can see that the total project achievement under state bids is about 1168 MW (by march 2014) [8] , of 4360 MW bidded capacity. Table 5 : Solar RFP released but not bidded under state policies S. No. States released RFP (MW) 1 UP 300 2 Haryana 50 3 Bihar 250 4 Assam 60 5 Karnataka- III 500 6 Rajasthan 50 Total 1210 With these two tables, the total or cumulative target of solar capacity addition under state policies is 5570 MW. Two states of India Maharashtra and west Bengal also have installed capacity of solar of about 150 Mw and 5 MW, but these two has added to state without any open bidding. So the total installed capacity of solar in India under state policies is about 1323 MW, of 5570 MW targeted value. 2.3 RPO and REC programs - Other than the development under state policies and central policies, Government of India also mandated the Renewable Purchase Obligation on the DISCOMS, as well as open access consumers and the initial RPO targets were kept very low of the order of 0.25% (2011-2012), further increasing this targets to 0.50% in 2013-14. However the solar installation through RPO
  • 16. 16 | P a g e mandates were also very low and as on date we have about 90 MW of installations under the RPO program. The lack of enforcement of RPO had a direct impact on the trading of the Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (REC), which continued to remain lacklustre. So far about 490 MW capacity has been installed under the REC programs. The majority of installations were in the state of Rajasthan with a total capacity installation of 174 MW under the REC scheme, followed by Madhya Pradesh Installing about 166 MW and Tamilnadu with a capacity installation of 75 MW. The RPO targets of India till 2022 will reach about 3 % according to MNRE[11] , which is equivalent to 34152 MW of solar energy installed capacity. Table 6: Solar RPO Targets for India Solar power capacity requirement till 2022 for solar RPO targets Year Energy Demand (MU) Solar RPO (%) Solar Energy Requirement (MU) for RPO compliance Requirement for RPO compliance (MW) 2011-12 953919 0.25% 2385 1433 2012-13 1022287 0.25% 2556 1536 2013-14 1095555 0.50% 5478 3291 2014-15 1174074 0.75% 8806 5291 2015-16 1258221 1% 12582 7560 2016-17 1348399 1.25% 16855 10127 2017-18 1443326 1.75% 25258 15176 2018-19 1544936 2.25% 34761 20885 2019-20 1653700 2.50% 41343 24839 2020-21 1770120 2.75% 48678 29247 2021-22 1894736 3% 56842 34152 Similarly in the REC schemes also there is an installation of 491 MW on pan India basis, but according to the recent trends the REC market for solar (solar RECs) is going down rapidly. 2.4 Analysis for State vs Central development – As discussed above in India there are two major sections for solar capacity addition India, i. e. Central level development (MNRE) and state level development (SNAs). If we plot a graph of solar energy capacity addition annually in policy perspective, it can be shown like it -
  • 17. 17 | P a g e Figure 3: Solar capacity addition annually policy wise [8] Here we can see that the state policies account for about 50% of total capacity addition till march 2014 [8] , and JNNSM accounts for only 26%. It depicts that the state policies have more capacity installations than central level and hence states are more successful to achieving the targets, but it is not correct observation as, in the state policies development of 1323 MW, only Gujarat accounts for 860 MW. It means that only 463 MW of solar installation has done under all state policies except Gujarat.
  • 18. 18 | P a g e The target vs achievements for state policies is – Graph 1: Targets Vs Achievements of solar capacity under state policies Here except Gujarat all other states have a huge uncommissioned capacity. On the other hand under JNNSM the target Vs. achievement is – Graph 2: Target Vs Achievements of solar energy capacity under JNNSM Here the capacity addition under JNNSM is much successful and the achievements are near to targets (Except solar thermal because more complex technology and construction and less resources availability). Guja rat Karn atak a Rajas than MP -I Mah arast hra AP TN UP Orris a Punj ab Bihar MP-II Chha ttisa garh Karn atak a - II Assa m Hary ana Uncommissioned 109.6 193 177.9 25 55 914.91 997 200 25 300 250 100 100 50 60 50 Commissioned till march 2014 860.4 17 22.1 175 150 85.09 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 SolarcapacityinMW State policies target vs achievements Migration scheme Phase1 BatchI(NVVN) ST (NVVN) RPSSGP Phase 1 Batch II Uncommissioned 33.5 10 420 9.25 40 Commissioned till march 2014 50.5 140 50 88.8 310 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 SolarCapacityinMW Target vs achievements JNNSM
  • 19. 19 | P a g e There are many reasons behind this which are aggressive bidding, poor land acquisition process, less coordination in central and state level government, instability of state governments, without resources or with less resources set the targets for much higher values. Financial reasons are also there like delay in PPA agreements, delay in regular and subsidy payments, poor infrastructure. So over all we can say here that success rate of solar capacity addition is higher of JNNSM than state policies. 3. Tariff trends under various solar programs – Gujarat solar policy offered Feed in Tariff first time to the MW size solar projects, the levelised tariff for the solar projects in Gujarat was Rs 12.54/ kWh, after this Migration scheme under central level offered FIT to the existing or under construction solar projects. But then because of cost declining in solar panels and competitive environment in solar industry the competitive bidding / reverse bidding emerged. In this solar developers has to bed less than the benchmark tariff defined by CERC or respective SERCs. While the average tariff achieved in the Phase I batch I of the JNNSM bid was of the order of Rs. 12.14/kWh, it has seen a continuous declining trend and the tariff achieved under the recent bids of JNNSM were of the order of Rs. 7.49 /kWh[12] . Due to rapid decline in the cost of solar PV systems, the CERC benchmark tariff has been continuously on decline mode and has reached to Rs. 7.72/kWh (without AD benefits) and Rs. 6.95/kWh (with AD benefits) for year 2014-15. Graph 3: CERC Benchmark tariff trend for SPV and ST [12] 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 PV 17.91 15.39 10.39 8.75 7.72 ST 15.31 15.04 12.46 11.9 11.28 0 5 10 15 20 Rs/kWh CERC Tariff Trend(Levelised)
  • 20. 20 | P a g e The major reason for this decline in the solar power tariffs were due to the global slide down in the PV module as well as BoS (Balance of System) prices. Taking the clues from the global price trends CERC has also declined its benchmark prices from 17.91 Rs/kWh to 7.72 Rs/kWh (for SPV) in the recent tariff order of 2014-15. The trend of average tariff decided under different policies (State and Central) is shown below in chronological order of their released year. The yellow line show the CERC benchmark tariff[12] of the same year. Graph 4 : Tariff trend of state and Central bids and CERC tariff benchmarking The tariff in the state bids reached to Rs. 6.49/kWh in the states such as Andhra Pradesh [13] . The aggressive tariffs realized in these states bids has made these solar projects non bankable, and much of this capacity is likely to remain uncommissioned. This is the drawback of reverse bidding. Advantage of FIT can be shown by Gujarat solar development in which the achievement rate is highest. 3.1 Analysis between FIT and competitive bidding - If we compare in the competitive bidding and FIT, the success rate of FIT is much higher than any other methodology. If we take an example of Chhattisgarh bidding for solar project of 100 MW, the lowest bid offered was 6.3 Rs/ kWh and the highest bid was 7.9 Rs/ kWh. The weighted average of this bid is about 7.2 Rs/ kWh. Government has to bear the cost of 7.2 Rs/
  • 21. 21 | P a g e Unit in any case, but there is a possibility that the lowest bidder can create any problem by giving reason of non bankability of project or less financial viable project, which create a problem to both developer and government to achieve its target. The alternate of this problem is government can give a FIT, which applicable to all the developers equal to the average price which is 7.2 Rs/ kWh. This create an environment of equality by which less chances of arising problems in development of project. Phase 2 – In the phase 2 of JNNSM, the bidding process was based on VGF (Viability Gap Funding). For this in the bidding the maximum VGF allotted in the DCR category is Rs 2.43 Cr/ MW with capacity of 25 MW, the minimum VGF allotted is Rs. 1.35 Cr/ MW with 10 MW. For open category the highest VGF of Rs. 1.35 Cr/ MW with 5 MW capacity and the lowest VGF of Rs. 0.175 Cr/ MW were there[10] . The average VGF in DCR category is Rs 2.06 Cr/ MW and for open category it is Rs 1.06 Cr/ MW. Graph 5 : VGF Allotment in JNNSM Phase 2 [10]
  • 22. 22 | P a g e 4. Developments under the Rooftop solar & the off grid solar program Launch of National Solar Mission had also specified targets for the off grid and rooftop solar power generation. Under Phase I of JNNSM, a separate scheme called ‘Rooftop PV and Small Scale Solar Generation Program (RPSSGP)’ was implemented for developing solar PV projects with maximum capacity of 2 MW as rooftop or, small scale ground mounted solar projects. A total of 100 MW capacities of projects under this program were to be installed and connected at a level below 33 KV and same GBI linked tariff was provided for both the categories of project. So far about 98 MW of projects have been installed [7] under this scheme, which are mostly ground mounted projects connected to 11 KV substations. There have been rooftop programs promoted through SECI rooftop solar PV initiatives and so far about 4.5 MW of rooftop solar projects have been commissioned and 72.3 MW of projects are under implementation. Rooftop solar PV has significant potential as we are rapidly reaching towards grid parity in this consumer category. The key to growth for roof top solar is Net metering which allows roof top owners electrical meter to be bi directional and grid can be used as a storage media for the roof top solar projects. Many utilities have been discouraging net metering policies, in fact recently Delhi introduced net-metering for solar rooftop systems. Utilities in most of the states are experiencing a shift from direct sale to the open access. Open access allows consumers to optimize their electricity bills and source cheaper electricity through bilateral PPA from independent elect city generators. In the month of May 2013, the open access consumer saved 450Cr due to cheaper electricity sourcing due to open access1 . As the spot electricity prices are fallen by 14% and many solar projects are available to do a bilateral PPA with the short term sale contract in the range of 4-rs/unit and long term supply contracts 3-4 Rs/kWh. It makes cheaper to source electricity through open access to the commercial consumers rather than buying electricity from Discoms at a tariff from 7-9Rs/kWh. In India, the application of rooftop solar PV has a particular significance, given the condition of its transmission and distribution infrastructure – high losses, poor power quality and frequent load shedding. Most buildings, public, private and commercial (for example, malls, hotels, hospitals and nursing homes), have diesel generators for back-up in case of load shedding by the utility. Given environmental considerations, the use of diesel should be minimized. There is
  • 23. 23 | P a g e abundant opportunity to use rooftop or building-mounted solar PV systems to generate electricity and thereby reduce the consumption of diesel. Due to the intermittent supply of solar power and grid outages, diesel–solar PV hybrid models could be potential solutions. Generous subsidies have been offered by the Government (both Central and State). Despite this, widespread installation of solar PV systems to generate electricity on urban rooftops does not seem like a reality that will take the shape in the near future. The state with Net metering policy to encourage solar rooftop project are Kerala, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh. Haryana and Utterakhand are also planning to launch its Net metering policies. 5. Roadmap for 2030 5.1 Roadmap - India today stands at the cross roads of an indeterminate future. Robust growth for several years for the first time perhaps has made Indians hopeful and desirous of and also reasonable confident about the prospects of an annual 7-8 % growth over the long term[14] . There is a revolution of expectation and aspirations of the poor and middle class to raise their standards of living. Urbanization is taking place at a rapid pace, incomes of more and more are growing and consumerism is spreading. All this requires substantial availability of affordable energy supplies. This is where the problem starts. India has been consistently facing power deficits because of burgeoning power demand and supply constantly short. Demand is likely to continue to make a steep ascent. Supply from conventional sources, however, is increasingly becoming a problem – whether it is coal, nuclear, large hydro or natural gas. It is clear that the demand supply gap is going to continue and may rise. Part of power shortage is being met through use of fossil fuels, whether diesel for power or kerosene for lighting, both of which are substantially subsidised along with natural gas. The Integrated Energy Policy of the Planning Commission in its Report in 2006 had for the first time estimated the likely future demand by 2032 and possible sources of supply. The demand was estimated to require about 800 GW generation capacity[15] . Of this renewable energy (minus large hydro) was estimated to be about 100 GW contributing about 5-6% of the electricity. It was assumed that this capacity would largely come from wind and biomass. Under the same chairmanship of Dr Kirit Parikh, the Report of strategies to adopt a low carbon growth have
  • 24. 24 | P a g e suggested that renewable energy sources should constitute 33% of capacity generating about 18% of the electricity by 2032. Both solar and wind have been estimated at about 100 GW each. KPMG had in its Report ‘The Rising Sun” in Sept 2012, talked of 68 GW by 2022[16] . Thus there seems to be a developing assumption that 100 GW should be the target for 2032. The Planning Commission is also perhaps thinking on those lines. While this seems to very encouraging we would like to introduce a word of caution. One of the major problems of the conventional power sector in India has been consistent over projection of capacities and planning in that manner, with equally consistent and substantial shortfalls. We should not start the same way for solar. It would be desirable to be more realistic and proceed in a systematic way. There are several reasons for this. There are the requirements of land and transmission which need to be met. There will be a huge requirement for financing. There will need to be large imports or domestic capacity neither of which appears desirable at the moment. Finally, we should develop more capacity when the costs are lower and the cost of conventional power will become more and save on avoidable costs which will be shared between the consumer and the Government, as well make the utilities more comfortable in, and perhaps more desirous of, buying solar power. In other words, we should hasten slowly and accelerate after attainment of grid parity. Nothing prevents India from doing more after 2020 if the circumstances so warrant. In the meanwhile, we should start developing infrastructure for doing 100 GW by 2030. Infrastructure must precede installation. The Solar Mission had targeted 22000 MW by 2022[7] – this was a somewhat arbitrary figure. Therefore, if we cannot reach it, it does not matter too much. The reason for not meeting it would partly be because the States have largely failed and Phase II got rather delayed. Given that India did not have any experience with solar, and general costs were still high, this was considered ambitious by many. So was it intended to be. It was also intended to make sure that make serious time bound efforts were made. It appeared feasible also, especially to those who could see the path ahead. Today, most observers feel that this will be exceeded. But we should avoid over enthusiasm. A less than 1 % difference in total electricity generation because of a few thousand MW of solar will not make much difference to the power situation in the country in 2022. Much more difference will be made in the short term if we sort out our problems with indigenous coal
  • 25. 25 | P a g e supply. It is important that the annual demand be carefully calibrated. Currently ad-hocism and uncertainty rule, both in policy and in quantity, thus negating benefits which may accrue, or unnecessarily imposing costs without commensurate gains. Uncertain quantities are being announced by the Government of India under the JNNSM with different policies even as uncertain quantities are being announced from time to time by States with no guarantee of time schedules and with policies different from the Centre. In between sudden announcements are made of large ultra-size projects at different locations with uncertainties regarding who will build and under what conditions. One could say that this does not create a proper market. 5.2 Phased Development till 2030 We consider that the solar PV development till 2030 will take place in three phases. The first phase of development is considered till 2017 until we reach to grid parity. The second phase of development will take place during 2020 to 2030, wherein solar will solar become competitive to grid power. The third phase of development is considered from 2030 to 2050, where is large scale diffusion of solar power will take place for general purpose use. During the first phase it is expected that the PV penetration will take place at slower pace and utility scale grid connected projects will be largely implemented through government support policies such as RPOs. During this phase some of the residential and commercial consumers will find rooftop solar PV economically attractive and the PV generation cost is expected to range between 5 – 7 Rs/ kWh depending on the site specific solar irradiance level. During this phase retail electricity price will increase by 2017 and utility scale grid connected solar power will reach to cost competitiveness with conventional power. In order to achieve the targets of the first phase, PV will require supportive policy framework and various other incentives. During the second phase of development (2017 - 2030), this roadmap envisage, that PV will achieve grid parity and become competitive at a much broader scale. During this phase the PV system cost are expected in the range of 3 – 5 Rs/ kWh and will be cheaper than the wholesale electricity prices. The annual market volume for installation will reach to about 7 – 10 GW per year leading to a cumulative install capacity of almost 100 GW by 2032. during this phase
  • 26. 26 | P a g e economic incentives to promote solar PV will be gradually phased out, however government support the open access and net metering in a consistent manner. During the third phase (2032 - 2050), Solar will be adopted for general purpose use other than electricity requirement, e.g. electric vehicle charging and various other applications. The typical cost of solar power is expected to range between 2 – 4 Rs/ kWh. During this phase the annual Solar PV installation are expected to be of the order of 10 – 15 GW. The total cumulative installed capacity of the country is expected to reach to 350 GW by 2030. 5.3 Capacity Requirement by 2030 Renewable will play important role to bridge the supply demand gap in future, it is expected that during 12th plan 88 GW capacity will be added through conventional sources and 33 GW will by renewable, of which solar power will contribute to about 10.5 GW. Similarly during 13th plant about 86 GW will be added through conventional power sources and about 35 GW will be added through renewable sources of which solar will contribute to about 15 GW. The renewable purchase obligation specified to various states will drive the future installations of solar power in the country. Government of India has provided the plant targets up to 15th (2017-2032) plan[15] . As per these targets the electricity demand in the country is projected to 712 GW by end of 15th plan. the targets during the 14th and 15th five year plan are derived based on 7.16 % and 6.22 % CAGR respectively. If we consider the demand growth of 6 % CAGR the electricity demand in the country is expected to about 1388 GW by 2030, almost 5.7 times of present demand. In view of the envisage increasing contribution of solar PV in Indian electricity system it is expected that solar PV will contribute 14 % of total energy generation by 2030 and 25% of total energy generation by 2050[14] . 6. Grid Parity in solar energy – Grid Parity refers to the moment when PV can produce electricity (LCOE) at a price below the price of electricity from grid. This is true in case of a consumer (residential, commercial, or industrial) who pays the price of electricity to a utility. Here two renowned research firms’
  • 27. 27 | P a g e publications referred for projecting the grid parity in India for solar energy, i.e. KPMG’s “The Rising Sun” and AT Kearney’s “Solar Power and India’s Energy Future” [17] . As per the KPMG report[16] the grid parity to these consumers is expected to reach by 2017. However reaching at this grid parity levels, we can only promoted some residential, commercial, and industrial rooftop systems. However the grid parity needs to be re-evaluated against the average procurement price of the distribution utility and solar power needs to compete with the conventional power, then only the grid parity achievements can be considered. The current APPC (Average Pooled Power Cost) of utilities is of the order of Rs. 3/kWh, and the grid parity to the distribution utilities can only justified once the solar power is competing in terms of the purchasing decisions of the distribution utilities. It means the grid parity needs to be categorized in two broad categories; a. Grid parity to the consumers b. Grid parity to the utilities Once the grid parity reaches to the consumer’s level, this will lead to the increased self consumption through the solar PV and this will promote the rooftop PV systems largely. In fact the promotional policies such as net metering at this juncture will lead to self consumption of solar electricity and feeding the remaining power back to the grid and the consumers will become the producers of electricity once the grid parity reaches to the consumer’s level. Grid parity will pave a way through which large consumers will become the producers of electricity and may put a threat to the distribution utilities. While it is true that India will reach to grid parity (Consumer level) soon, it is going to take some time when the solar power become cheaper option to the utility as conventional power sources. The wholesale procurement level for utilities, the marginal cost of power procurement is in the range of INR 4.00-5.50 per unit. In many states, which after adding the costs of transmission and distribution and associated losses comes to INR 5.50 -7.50 per unit as delivered to the consumer. Off-grid systems including hybrid PV/diesel has already reached to the grid parity and the electricity from the solar PV is cheaper as compared to the conventional power in these consumers.
  • 28. 28 | P a g e As per the KPMG report grid parity for utility scale solar could happen in the period 2017-19. Beyond this point there will be rapid increase in the conventional power, however the cost of solar power will continue in the decline mode. However, given the barriers to implementation, such as possible changes to the regulatory environment and access to finance, we expect installed capacity to increase to about 372 GW by 2022 [14] . Graph 6: KPMG The Rising Sun, Grid Parity representation [16] There have been many predictions of grid parity. The projections of different reports for solar energy in future in India and for Grid parity by different consulting and government firms are shown below – Table 7: Prediction and projections for solar industry in India by different reports [15][16][17] Reports Projections Grid Parity Planning Commission of India : Low carbon Strategies Solar + Wind energy will contribute to 427 BU of total 3466 BU in 2030, which is 12.32 %. Capacity will be 225 GW (Solar + Wind) out of total 698 GW which is 32.5 %. (100 GW for Solar) According to NSM till 2022 CEA : 18th Electric Power Survey Total Energy requirement till 2032 in 3710 BU and total installation capacity will be 541 GW -
  • 29. 29 | P a g e Power Grid : Desert Power India 2050 Till 2032 the installed capacity will be 712 GW with peak demand of 542 GW and renewable share of 235 GW, Till 2050 Installed capacity will be 1388 GW with Maximum demand of 896 GW and share of renewable of 485 GW. 2018 (As per Market Analysis) JNNSM : Towards Building SOLAR INDIA 20000 MW of solar installation till 2022, 100 GW of solar installation till 2032 (according to Planning commission) grid parity till 2022 and coal parity till 2030 AT Kearney : Solar Power and India's Energy Future India can increase solar power capacity to more than 50 GW by 2022. The solar industry’s structure will rapidly evolve as solar reaches grid parity with conventional power between 2016 and 2018 grid parity till 2016 to 2018 KPMG : The rising Sun PV market will grow to 12.5 GW by 2016 - 2017 grid parity till 2017 to 2018 Perhaps here it needs to be a bit conservative when we are determining policy. It appears that we should stick by grid parity expectations by 2017, It is for this reason that we are suggesting that we gradually increase annual capacity rather than going in for large expansion now, as appears to be the planning. 7. Challenges – While India is planning to go for 100GW solar PV installations by 2030, there are numerous challenges not only related to the affordable solar, but the major challenge is that how the Indian grid system will cope with high shares of PV electricity, which is variable in nature. The cost decline in the solar PV will create interest of the consumers, however the PV system reliability remains the major challenge, and future grid management methods will surely address this issue. The current approach allows plants to be set up anywhere which the developer has identified. A lot of effort is required by the developer to identify, procure and possess the land. There are also uncertainties. The recent retrospective change in land prices for solar projects in Rajasthan including for projects already bid out reflect one danger. Some States want to give land free which is not correct. The utility is required to develop the transmission. Often there are problems between the developer and the utility related to this. Neither effort may be the most optimum. This also needs to extra expense and mutual recriminations. Therefore, there is a need to do a macro and micro load and locational planning exercise. A Task Force should be immediately set
  • 30. 30 | P a g e up which would prepare such a plan based on a combination of study of load which means where the electricity generated during the day time would be most suitable; the availability of non- agricultural land; reasonably good radiation; requirements of scheduling and grid management; consequent transmission needs etc. This would mean identification of locations which would have a capacity of 100 GW. The identified locations could have solar parks from capacity of 100 – 500 MW, or in a few cases, even more. The identified land should be acquired by the Central or State Government as decided by the concerned State, and as soon as possible. It is like a land bank. It is important to do this now because land is increasingly becoming a scarce resource and costly. There should be a scheme where the Central Government provides substantial assistance for building the infrastructure at these sites which can be calculated on a MW basis. There could be several possibilities. The Task Force should also come out with the alternatives and the Government take a final decision within a year. Locations should be prioritised for the setting up of plants and their capacities. When bidding is done under the JNNSM, plants should only be set up in these parks starting with category A parks. All developers will know the land/infrastructure cost. And they will not need to spend time and resources on procurement of land. Our attempt should be to give these facilities at the lowest cost, though there can be a revision of costs for every round of bidding. This will also enable same costs for park and infrastructure across the country so that bids are not affected by this factor. There has been an issue regarding the absence of proper information on solar radiation. Some measuring stations were set up in the initial stage of the JNNSM. More have since been proposed, although they have got delayed. It is essential that there is proper information. The best way would be to immediately install these stations in the lands identified for solar parks. Further, this information was meant to be a public good and available with no guarantees but free. It is sad that C WET is charging money for this. This is a small cost which is necessary for the provision of proper infrastructure. Some states have already started setting up of parks. They should be encouraged. This activity should not be allowed to happen in an ad hoc manner by itself. Other than assistance provided to build the infrastructure for the park, there should be no other element in the policy regarding how will the power generated be sold. That would be identified in the bidding process. We are hoping that for the next several years this would be part of the bundling process. The compulsion will
  • 31. 31 | P a g e only be to put the plants in the designated plots in the bidding process or plants set up under the Mission. The most innovative approach would be to set up a Solar Park Authority of India as an autonomous body. Capital costs will largely be met by the Government of India. Thereafter, it should be easy to manage the operational costs. Furthermore, to achieve the ambitious target of 100 GW till 2030, major challenges can be listed out, which are shown below – a) Constrain of transmission of power b) Land and Power evacuation c) Variability in generation d) Problem of Financing e) Improper solar resource data f) Supply chain constrain g) Policy uncertainty These points can be elaborated here – 7.1 Constrain of transmission of power – Solar power require only sun for running fuel, but this feature of solar plant give it some limitations. For a large or MW size solar plant the place for establishment is much specific. Because of huge land requirement and more sunny days in a year, a solar plant is best placed in desert area, where waste land is available in abundant amount. In India four major places are there which can be idle for solar power generation as for availability of waste land and good sunny days, they are Thar desert, Runn of Kutch, Leh & Laddakh, Lahul & Spiti[14] . Now the problem occur as the load centers are very far and even in the different sates than the states where plants are situated. It requires additional transmission capability to handle and transfer the generated electric power of these solar plants which are concentrated on a place to the different locations where load centres are placed. Present transmission capability of India is not enough to transfer this much amount of electric power. It again create an additional financial demand to establish this kind of transmission infrastructure.
  • 32. 32 | P a g e 7.2 Land and Power evacuation – As solar power plant require a huge amount of land of about 35 MW/ sq. km [14] . For the power requirement of 100 GW the land requirement is very high, for normal land it is not possible to establish a solar plant as of high land cost and second is wastage of a cultivable land. So wasteland is the only solution for this problem. On the other hand for a solar power plant the proper evacuation facility for electric power is strongly needed as loss of energy generated from solar, is a costly loss than any other plant. Government should provide facilities like solar parks where power evacuation facility are provided by the responsible agency of government itself. 7.3 Variability in Generation – Solar energy is a very variable power because it depends on the solar insolation coming to the earth at that place. This can be affected a number of times in a day, because of haze, clouds etc. and for the whole day also the solar insolations not remain same, solar plant can work only for day time not in the night. These are the things which make a solar plant to produce variable electricity. But the load has its variation which are completely different with the production variation. To meet those variation of load there is requirement of peak load power plants like Pumped storage hydro plant or Gas/ Diesel operated plants. These reserve power plants are again additional cost to the infrastructure requirement for solar power plants. 7.4 Problem in Financing – Solar power plant requires a lot of money, about 7 – 8 Crores/ MW, although the cost of a solar plant is continuously decreasing but then also it requires a high initial cost. For a target of 100 GW solar plant it requires a huge amount of money. Financing of a solar project is a big problem which can be counter by EXIM banks, other investment banks, government funds. Other than national options, World bank funding or loans are also alternative options for the capital requirement. 7.5 Improper solar resource data – Solar industry is a new sector not only for India but in the world also. For modelling and simulating a solar plant an adequate solar resource data required to maximise the yield and revenue of a plant. Firstly NASA has given the world wide solar radiation data,
  • 33. 33 | P a g e which is the most trusted data. But this data is also not so specific. For India like CWET no organisation is there for monitoring the solar radiation data and plant performance index according to the land meteo specification. There is a requirement to assess the solar data to find the most suitable location for the upcoming solar plants. 7.6 Supply Chain constrain – For a huge amount of solar installation there are so many things required which are not available in the country presently. First if all the solar PV panel which are made of silicon is come on the first place, till now there are only few companies which manufacture the solar PV cells. Import of solar PV panel is a big problem. Better government policies for domestic solar industry are strongly recommended to encourage them to adopt new technologies and less expensive PV modules. Other than the PV panels the BOS system for the level of 100 GW is also a challenging task. 7.7 Policy uncertainty – For a rapid and stable development in a newly and premature industry solar PV industry, a good and strong policy framework is required. As the solar plants have higher cost and high initial investment the revenue and payback time of these plants spreads to several years. For this guaranteed revenue and payback strong policy background required. Policy uncertainty can cause many damages to the project developers. 8. Conclusion – As discussed above in the analysis part of solar installation, we can depict that the success rate of installation and achieving the targets for solar capacity addition is much higher in the central government programs (MNRE), as compared to the development under state policies (except Gujarat). India has its requirement and hence its ambitious objectives to produce solar energy of the order of 100 GW by 2030[14][15], this is really a challenging target for the country like India. Learning from the JNNSM phase 1 and implementation of it in the existing and coming programs can create an rapid and stable development of solar power in India. Learning like better land acquisition policies and support, better financing options and support of EXIM banks,
  • 34. 34 | P a g e providing FIT if required, rigid and concrete policy framework, less time delay process of auxiliary permissions, better power evacuation infrastructure provision, these all are the points which can be work as catalyst for our solar energy programs. In the scenario of tariff decision for the bidding, weather state or central level, there are various methods like competitive bidding, FIT provision, L1 imposing to all developers etc. From all the available methods it is seen from the results that FIT is the most successful method for successful completion of the project (Ex. Gujarat solar program). As the analysis result above the Fit and weighted average tariff is approximately same for a government. Then FIT should be given to the developers than any other alternative. Establishing solar parks or solar park authority is also a good option for rapid development, as better evacuation and other infrastructure availability can attract an investor more effectively. India is moving ahead to the greener future, some help by strong policy framework by the government side can create a revolution in the field of solar energy capacity addition in India.
  • 35. 35 | P a g e 9. References – [1] Naveen Kumar Sharma, Prashant Kumar Tiwari, Yog Raj Sood; “Solar energy in India: Strategies, policies, perspectives and future potential”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy reviews, 2012; 16:933-941 [2] Zhi Qiang, Sun Honghang, Li Yanxi, Xu Yurui, Su Jun; “China’s solar photovoltaic policy: An analysis based on policy instruments”, Applied Energy, 2014; 129: 308-319 [3] Chi-Jen Yang; “Reconsidering solar grid parity”, Energy Policy, 2010; 38:3270-3273 [4] Sufang Zhang, Yongxiu He; “Analysis on the development and policy of solar PV power in China”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy reviews, 2013; 21: 393-401 [5] Jinho Jung, Wallace E. Tyner; “Economic and Policy analysis for solar PV system in Indiana”, 2014; IN: 47907-2056 [6] Raymond Hudson, Gred Heilscher; “PV Grid Integration – System Management Issues and Utility Concerns”, Energy procedia, 2012; 25: 82-92 [7] Ministry of New Renewable Energy(2012): “JNNSM Phase II Policy Document” available at http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/draft-jnnsmpd-2.pdf [8] Ministry of New Renewable Energy(2014): “Annual Report 2013 - 2014” document available at http://mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/publications/annual-report-2/ [9] Gujarat Solar Policy (2009): “Solar Power Policy 2009” available at http://mnre.gov.in/file- manager/UserFiles/guidelines_sbd_tariff_gridconnected_res/Gujarat%20Solar%20Power%20Pol icy%202009.pdf [10]SECI press release: Feb- 2014, list of JNNSM Phase 2 bidders; available at http://www.seci.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/files/Final%20allocation%20list_750%20MW%281% 29.pdf [11] RPO targets of India, from 2012 to 2022, available at http://www.firstgreen.co/2014/07/solar-rpo-targets-for-india/ [12] CERC annual tariff orders for renewable energy; from 2010 to 2014, available at http://www.cercind.gov.in/Final-Tariff_14.html
  • 36. 36 | P a g e [13] Central Power distribution company of AP; “Andhra Pradesh Solar Policy & Discom Perspective”, 2013; available at http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/presentations- 23052013/APCPDCL.pdf [14] Power Grid; 2013, “Desert Power India 2050” available at, http://www.powergridindia.com/_layouts/PowerGrid/WriteReadData/file/ourBusiness/SmartGrid /desert_power_india.pdf [15] Planning Commission, 2014, “The Final Report of the Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth”, available at http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/rep_carbon2005.pdf [16] KPMG; 2012, “The Rising Sun”, available at https://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/the-rising- sun-grid.pdf [17] AT Kearney, 2013; “Solar Power and India’s Energy Future” available at http://www.atkearney.in/documents/10192/692844/Solar+Power+in+India+- +Preparing+to+Win.pdf/b6b34499-8285-4813-9d66-ecdc293a8537