Funding Projections to Introduce Three New Family Planning Methods in India
1. April 2017
This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development.
It was prepared by Avenir Health for the Health Finance and Governance project.
FUNDING PROJECTIONS TO INTRODUCE
THREE NEW FAMILY PLANNING
METHODS IN INDIA
2. The Health Finance and Governance Project
USAID’s Health Finance and Governance (HFG) project will help to improve health in developing countries by
expanding people’s access to health care. Led by Abt Associates, the project team will work with partner countries
to increase their domestic resources for health, manage those precious resources more effectively, and make wise
purchasing decisions. As a result, this six-year, $209 million global project will increase the use of both primary and
priority health services, including HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and reproductive health services. Designed to
fundamentally strengthen health systems, HFG will support countries as they navigate the economic transitions
needed to achieve universal health care.
April 2017
Cooperative Agreement No: AID-OAA-A-12-00080
Submitted to: Scott Stewart, AOR
Office of Health Systems
Bureau for Global Health
Recommended Citation: Health Finance & Governance project. April 2017. Funding Projections to Introduce
Three New Family Planning Methods in India. Bethesda, MD: Health Finance & Governance project, Abt Associates
Inc.
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3. FUNDING PROJECTIONS
TO INTRODUCE
THREE NEW FAMILY PLANNING
METHODS IN INDIA
DISCLAIMER
The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency
for International Development (USAID) or the United States Government.
4.
5. i
CONTENTS
Acronyms................................................................................................................. iii
Executive Summary ................................................................................................ v
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background............................................................................................................................1
1.2 Problem Statement and Objectives................................................................................2
2. Methods ................................................................................................................ 3
2.1 Projections of mCPR and estimation of additional users over next five years ..3
2.2 Impact of introduction of new methods .......................................................................3
2.3 The number of total and additional users of modern contraception ...................3
2.4 Method mix among additional users for new methods ............................................4
2.5 Capacity Building..................................................................................................................5
3. Results................................................................................................................... 7
4. Conclusion.......................................................................................................... 13
Annex A: State-level Projections for Modern Methods Contraceptive Use
and Costs ................................................................................................................ 15
Annex B. Capacity Building of Staff for Introducing New Contraceptives... 47
List of Tables
Table ES.1: Annual and total cost of commodities and capacity building for new methods
2017-2021 (Rs. millions)........................................................................................................... vii
Table 1: Distribution of additional users by new methods.........................................................5
Table 2: Projected mCPR for calculating the users of modern methods...............................7
Table 3: Number of additional users of all methods in all states of India 2017–2021........9
Table 4: Users of new methods and OCPs 2017–2021 ............................................................10
Table 5: Commodities required per method per year and costs per method per year..10
Table 6: Total cost of new methods, 2017–2021 (RS. millions)..............................................11
Table 7: Total cost of training (Rs. millions).................................................................................11
Table 8: Annual and total cost of commodities and capacity building for new methods
2017-2021 (Rs. millions)...........................................................................................................12
Table A.1: Projections of mCPR during 2012-2020....................................................................16
Table A.2: Projected additional users for all methods during 2012-2020............................18
Table A.2: Projected additional users for all methods during 2012-2020 (Cont.).............20
Table A.3: mCPR and Method mix..................................................................................................22
Table A.4: Distribution of additional users by methods -Non-focus states and districts 24
Table A.4: Distribution of additional users by methods -Non-focus states and districts
(cont.)............................................................................................................................................26
Table A.5: Distribution of additional users by methods -Focus states and districts .........28
Table A.5: Distribution of additional users by methods -Focus states and districts
(Cont.)...........................................................................................................................................29
Table A.6: Projected number of users of injectable, OCP, Centchroman and POP-Non
Focus states and districts.........................................................................................................30
6. ii
Table A.6: Projected number of users of injectable, OCP, Centchroman and POP-Non
Focus states and districts (Cont.)..........................................................................................32
Table A.7: Projected number of users of injectable, OCP, Centchroman and POP-Focus
and N0n-Focus states and districts.......................................................................................34
Table A.7: Projected number of users of injectable, OCP, Centchroman and POP-Focus
and N0n-Focus states and districts (Cont.)........................................................................35
Table A.8: Total users of new methods-all states and districts...............................................36
Table A.9: Total requirement of commodities-all states...........................................................38
Table A.9: Total requirement of commodities-all states (Cont.)............................................40
Table A.10: Budget requirement of new contraceptives-all states.........................................42
Table A.10: Budget requirement of new contraceptives:-All states (Cont.) .......................44
Table A.11: Summary Cost of New Methods for 2017-2021..................................................46
Table B.1: Health Infrastructure in all states of India .................................................................47
Table B.2: State level courses (number of participants and states/UTs included) .............49
Table B.3: Cost of state level trainers ............................................................................................51
Table B.4: District level and CHC/PHC level courses required and their cost..................52
Table B.5: LHV and ANM courses required and their cost .....................................................54
List of Figures
Figure ES.1: Projected number of modern method users 2016-2021.................................... vi
Figure 1: Number of modern method users 2016–2021............................................................7
7. iii
ACRONYMS
AHS Annual Health Survey
ANM Auxiliary Nurse Midwife
ANMTC Auxiliary Nurse Midwife Training Centre
ASHA Accredited Social Health Activist
CHC Community Health Center
COC Combined Oral Contraceptive Pill
DLHS District Level Household Survey
DMPA Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate
FPET Family Planning Estimation Tool
GOI Government of India
HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus
IUCD Intrauterine Contraceptive Devices
LHV Lady Health Visitor
mCPR Modern Method Contraceptive Prevalence Rate
MO Medical Officer
MWRA Married Women of Reproductive Age
NFHS National Family Health Survey
OBGYN Obstetrician and Gynecologist
OCP Oral Contraceptive Pill
PHC Primary Health Center
POP Progesterone-only Pill
PPIUCD Postpartum Intrauterine Contraceptive Device
SD Subdivision
STI Sexually Transmitted Infection
TFR Total Fertility Rate
USAID United States Agency for International Development
8.
9. v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
India has recently added three new family planning methods to the National Family Planning Programme:
(1) Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate (DMPA), an injectable contraceptive, (2) Centchroman, a
weekly oral contraceptive pill, and (3) a Progesterone-only Pill (POP). This public health policy change is
intended to accelerate progress under India’s Family Planning 2020 goals, which include providing
contraceptive coverage to an additional 48 million women and increasing contraceptive options. This
financing projection provides the Government of India with estimates of funding required to procure
these new contraceptives and ensure that proper budget supports effective implementation.
The USAID-funded Health Finance and Governance team applied a modelling tool to project state-wise
modern method contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR) and new users over the next five years. The
projections include contraceptive method mix changes both for new users and switchers due to the
introduction of new contraceptives. Based on the method mix projections, this report estimates the
funding required by the government to procure and implement these three new contraceptive methods
over the five-year period.
Methods
Trends in the future use of modern contraception were projected based on the series of family planning
surveys conducted over the years (including National Family Health Survey, District Level Household
Survey, and Annual Health Survey) and the Family Planning Estimation Tool, a model for projecting
trends in modern contraceptive use. Projections were made at both the national and state level.
Family planning use in India is largely for limiting the total number of births. Female sterilization is the
dominant method. Spacing methods (pills, condoms, and traditional methods such as withdrawal) are
used infrequently and sporadically. International experience has shown that the addition of new methods
to a national program can increase contraceptive use significantly. Therefore, we assumed that the
addition of the three new methods will lead to an increase in overall modern contraceptive use,
primarily for spacing, while the use of permanent methods will continue according to current patterns.
We also assumed that the uptake of injectables will initially be slow but by 2021 half of additional users
will be using injectables and the other half will be using equal shares of combined oral contraceptive pills
(COCs), Centchroman, and POPs.
Capacity building of service providers is required at all levels before supplies of new methods start
arriving at the facilities. Three days of training are required for regional trainers to cover injectables,
Centchroman, POPs, COCs, and emergency contraceptive pills. Similar training is needed at the state
level and below. Training of trainers at the state level has begun and will be cascaded down to lower
levels in the coming three years.
10. vi
Results
The total number of modern method users increases from 128 million in 2016 to 150 million in 2021,
resulting in 22 million additional users of modern contraception (Figure ES.1).
Figure ES.1: Projected number of modern method users 2016-2021
Detailed projections by state and year for married women of reproductive age, mCPR, additional users
for all methods, and their method-wise break-up were also generated. We project that 17 states will
have mCPR above 60 percent by 2021. The amount of increase varies by state according to their
historical trends. The largest increases in mCPR are projected for Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar,
Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala, Meghalaya, Manipur, Sikkim,
Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
The largest number of additional new method users is projected to come from Uttar Pradesh followed
by West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Except for West Bengal, these are all focus
states. Under the assumptions described above, there will be almost 230,000 users of injectables, and
76,000 users each of Centchroman and of POP by 2021. The remainder of the projected additional
users of modern contraceptives will use existing methods including sterilization, COC, and condoms.
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Million
Years
11. vii
Table ES.1 summarizes the timing and costs of the new commodities and capacity building. The total
cost of commodities for the new methods is expected to be about Rs. 529 million from 2017 to 2021.
Capacity building adds an additional Rs. 321 million for a total additional cost of Rs. 850 million.
Expenditures are higher in the first three years while training is underway, but then drop once the scale-
up phase is complete.
Table ES.1: Annual and total cost of commodities and capacity building for new methods 2017-2021
(Rs. millions)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-2021
Injectable 27 43 44 57 68 239
Centchroman 2 2 2 2 2 10
POP 76 78 69 57 280
Total 29 121 123 127 127 529
Cost of capacity
building
150 84 87 321
Total 179 205 211 128 127 850
Conclusion
The addition of these new methods to the government family planning program is intended to provide
better choices for couples who wish to space their births or do not want to use sterilization. It is
expected that the availability of these new methods will increase the number of modern method users
of family planning by improving choice and the quality of services. For the three new modern methods, it
is estimated that there will be almost 230,000 users of injectables, 76,000 users of Centchroman, and
76,000 users of POP by 2021. The largest numbers of users for the new methods are projected to come
from highly populated northern states, such as Assam, Bihar, Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and
West Bengal. There will be increases in costs for the procurement of contraceptives and capacity
building, but the increased costs are not particularly large when compared with total expenditures on
family planning by the government. The annual budgets required for procuring the commodities at the
current market cost is around Rs. 120 million per year (12 crores) and this represents less than 10
percent of current family planning expenditure by the Government of India. The funding estimations of
this study will help the government to allocate its budgets for commodity purchase in a timely manner,
while the rigorous modelling methods will help policymakers to justify their budget allocation requests.
12.
13. 1
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
India is home to a growing population of over 1.2 billion people that is expected to surpass 1.4 billion by
2026.1 Although the national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined from 3.2 to 2.3 births per women
between 2000 and 2013, it remains above the target TFR of 2.1, driven by several high-focus, high-
fertility states. Young age at marriage and first childbirth, short spacing between births, high fertility
among young women, and unmet need for family planning all contribute to high overall fertility,
population growth, maternal and infant mortality, and unsustainable use of resources for health.
The Government of India (GOI) has long recognized the impact of family planning on broader health and
welfare goals, and accordingly was the first country to launch the National Family Planning Programme in
1952.1 The approach of this and successor organizations has evolved over the ensuing 65 years, and now
envisages family planning as a mechanism for averting maternal and child deaths, stabilizing the
population, and promoting economic and social progress. These goals align with various national and
international commitments of the Government of India, including the National Health Mission, the
Sustainable Development Goals, and India’s Family Planning 2020 commitments.2
Along with over 60 other countries in attendance, India committed at the 2012 London Summit on
Family Planning to take political, financial, and service delivery steps to sustain and grow family planning
coverage by 2020.2 Specific commitments by 2020 include increasing financing for family planning to over
US$2 billion, sustaining contraceptive coverage for 100 million women currently using them, expanding
access to services to an additional 48 million women, and expanding the choice of available
contraceptives and family planning methods for all people of reproductive age. At present, for too many
Indian women, early marriage and childbirth followed by sterilization remains the only option. Data from
the fourth National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) show that less than half of women use any form of
modern contraception, and of those who do, two-thirds have been sterilized.3 More than 26 percent of
Indian women are married by the time they are 18 (NFHS-4) and the contraceptive use by married
adolescents is dismally poor at only 7 percent (NFHS-3).3 Methods to delay or space children are not
widely available: only 1.5 percent of women use an intrauterine contraceptive device (IUCD), 4 percent
use oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), and 5 percent use condoms (NFHS-4).3
A key indicator for measuring progress on the Family Planning 2020 commitments is the Modern
Methods Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (mCPR). Methods counted toward the mCPR and covered
under the National Family Planning Programme include birth spacing methods like OCPs, condoms,
IUCDs, and permanent methods of male and female sterilization. New methods being added to expand
choice and access include Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate (DMPA) Injectable; Centchroman, a
weekly pill developed in India; Progesterone-only Pills (POPs); and implants.1 Piloting of POP and
approval for new contraceptive implants are still underway.1 Increasing choice and introducing new
contraceptive methods in India could play a significant role in reducing the unmet need of a large
1 Department of Health and Family Welfare. 2016. Annual Report of Department of Health and Family Welfare for the
year of 2015-16. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Government of India.
2 Family Planning Division. 2014. India’s ‘Vision FP 2020’. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Government of India.
3 International Institute for Population Sciences (India) and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2016. National Family
Health Survey 4 (NFHS-4): India Fact Sheet.
14. 2
proportion of adolescents and young couples. The inclusion of new family planning methods under the
National Family Planning Programme will also impact demand for services, the mCPR, and funding for
procurement, provision, and capacity building.
DMPA Injectable has been approved in India and available through private providers since 1994.4 Users
receive an intramuscular injection every three months (or within 11 to 17 weeks after last injection),
which results in three months of contraceptive protection that is safe, is highly effective, and has been
linked to additional health benefits. Drawbacks of DMPA may include menstrual changes, other side
effects like headache and dizziness, and a delay in return to fertility after use has been discontinued.
DMPA provides no protection from HIV or other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), which providers
must make clear to patients during counselling.
Centchroman has been available under subsidy by the Social Marketing Programme in India since 1995,
and is now being added to the National Family Planning Programme.1, 4 Also known in India by the names
Saheli and Novex, Centchroman (ormeloxifene) is a non-steroidal weekly OCP developed at India’s
Central Drug Research Institute for use as an alternative to daily progesterone-estrogen combination
pills.5 Centchroman functions by preventing implantation of a fertilized ovum, thus preventing pregnancy,
without disrupting the normal ovulatory cycle or causing other side effects like nausea or bleeding. Like
DMPA Injectable, Centchroman offers no protection against HIV or other STIs.4
1.2 Problem Statement and Objectives
Three new contraceptives are being added to India’s public sector family planning program, with
widespread use expected to begin in 2017. The three contraceptives are DMPA Injectable,
Centchroman, and POPs. Of these, DMPA Injectable and Centchroman are ready for roll-out.
Widespread introduction of POP is planned starting in 2018. A fourth contraceptive, implants, is not yet
approved; its roll-out is expected in about two years. There is a need to ensure adequate funding for
procurement and supply of these new contraceptives within the government budgets, as well as
financing to support capacity-building activities. In view of this, the USAID-funded Health Finance and
Governance team applied a modelling tool to project state-wise modern method contraceptive
prevalence rates, new users, and funding requirements for new family planning commodities over the
next five years.
The study has three main objectives:
Estimate the demand for the new contraceptives for the next five years
Estimate the cost of procuring the required commodities
Estimate the funds required to build provider capacity
4 Urban Health Initiative. 2012 [cited 2017 April 17]. What are Progestin-Only Injectables? Presentations for Service
Providers. Urban Health Initiative India. Available from http://www.uhi-
india.org.in/toolkits/dmpa/DMPA_PPT_Service_Providers_Eng.pdf
5 Central Drug Research Institute. 2017 [cited 2017 April 17]. Centchroman. CSIR-Central Drug Research Institute.
Available from http://www.cdri.res.in/Centchroman.aspx
15. 3
2. METHODS
2.1 Projections of mCPR and estimation of additional users
over next five years
The national trend of growth in the mCPR has been estimated using the serial national surveys (NFHS,
District Level Household Survey (DLHS), and Annual Health Survey (AHS)) with the Family Planning
Estimation Tool.6,7 This projection shows little or no growth in mCPR. We applied this same approach
to the state level2 and assumed that no state would have an mCPR above 70 percent, the current level
for Andhra Pradesh, because that level is more than sufficient to achieve replacement-level fertility.
2.2 Impact of introduction of new methods
International experience shows that introduction of new methods eventually increases mCPR by 5–8
percentage points for each new method that becomes available to the entire population.8 We assume
that the gradual roll-out of a completely new method, injectables, coupled with Centchroman and POP,
which are essentially new forms of the OCP, will increase the total market by at least 6–7 percentage
points by 2020–2021, and the mCPR from 47.8 percent, as measured by the NFHS-4, to 57 percent by
2021.
2.3 The number of total and additional users of modern
contraception
The total number of family planning users has been estimated by multiplying the projected mCPR by the
projected number of married women of reproductive age (MWRA). State-level projections were made
using the same methods and adjusted so that the aggregate growth at the state levels matched the
national projection. Additional users are calculated as total users in any future year minus users in the
base year, 2016. Note that ‘additional users’ are different from new users. New users might refer to
those who are new to family planning or to a particular method or source. Since some women will
discontinue contraceptive use and others will age out of the reproductive age group, they need to be
replaced by new users to maintain the current number of total users. So there could be a significant
number of ‘new’ users even if there were no ‘additional’ users. Additional users represent the net
increase in the total number of users.
6 New JR, Cahill N, Stover J, Gupta YP, Alkema L. Forthcoming. Rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet
need and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India: a subnational analysis with the Family
Planning Estimation Tool. Lancet Global Health.
7Alkema, L, Kantorova, V, Menozzi, C, and Biddlecom, A. 2013. National, regional, and global rates and trends in
contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive
analysis. Lancet 381:1642–1652.
8Ross J, Stover J. 2013. Use of modern contraception increases when more methods become available: analysis of
evidence from 1982-2009. Global Health Science and Practice 1(2):203–212. doi: 10.9745/GHSP-D-13-00010.
16. 4
2.4 Method mix among additional users for new methods
Data from the NFHS-4 indicate the current method mix in each state. To estimate how the method mix
would change with the addition of the new methods, we relied on international experience.
Data on family planning methods from Demographic and Health Surveys for 83 countries show a range
of 0 percent to 32 percent of MWRA age using injectables as their main method of family planning. The
median prevalence of injectable use is 4.0 percent, and the mean is 7.4 percent with an inner-quartile
range of 1.2 percent–11.3 percent.
A global analysis of the oral contraceptive market by Global One-Stop Reports shows that POPs and
combined oral contraceptive pills (COCs) share the market equally. Since POPs may have fewer side
effects, they may be preferred by some women. That may help to grow the market but would also likely
cut into the share of COCs.
Contraceptive use in India is primarily for limiting births and is dominated by female sterilization. The
use of these limiting methods is already at high levels and has brought the TFR down to replacement
level in many states. As a result, we do not expect the new methods to have a large effect on the use of
permanent methods. Instead, we expect that the new methods will be most useful for those wanting to
space their children and those who, for whatever reason, do not adopt sterilization. Currently, these
women use pills, condoms, and traditional methods. Since each of these methods has some problems, a
significant portion of women cycle in and out of use and non-use. The new methods are intended to
provide better options for these women as they are more convenient to use and should have fewer side
effects.
For these reasons, we have assumed that the number of users of the current methods other than OCPs
will remain constant. (Note that there will still be new users of existing methods to replace drop-outs
and those reaching age 50.) Additional users will be divided among injectables and oral contraceptives.
Initially, injectables will account for one-quarter of new methods users, but this share will grow to 50
percent by 2021 as injectables become more widely known. The remaining additional users will be
equally divided among COCs, POPs, and Centchroman, as shown in Table 1. We have assumed faster
roll-out of injectables in the focus districts as initial efforts will prioritize those districts. Note that these
distributions apply to additional users only, so the number of users of each method will be low in the
first year and increase gradually until 2021. State-level projections for the new family planning methods
are shown in Annex A.
17. 5
Table 1: Distribution of additional users by new methods
Focus districts in 7 focus states
Inject. OCP Centchroman POP
1st
year 25% 55% 20%
2nd
year 30% 23% 23% 23%
3rd
year 40% 20% 20% 20%
4th
year 45% 18% 18% 18%
5th
year 50% 17% 17% 17%
Non-focus districts in 7 focus states and all non-focus states
Inject. OCP Centchroman POP
1st year 20% 60% 20%
2nd year 25% 25% 25% 25%
3rd year 30% 23% 23% 23%
4th year 40% 20% 20% 20%
5th year 50% 17% 17% 17%
2.5 Capacity Building
Capacity building of service providers is required at all levels before supplies of new methods start
arriving at the facilities. Three days of training are required for regional trainers to cover injectables,
Centchroman, POPs, COCs, and the emergency contraceptive pill. Similar training is to be held at the
state level and below. Training of trainers at the state level has begun and will be cascaded down to
lower levels in the coming three years. We have made the following assumptions for the training roll-
out:
1. State-level teams will consist of state trainers who have completed postpartum intrauterine
device (PPIUD) or other clinical training.
2. District-level teams will have as trainers obstetricians and gynecologists (OBGYNs) from district
hospitals, sister tutors from a nursing college (if any), and sister tutors of auxiliary nurse midwife
training centers (ANMTCs).
3. District-level teams will train the medical officers (MOs) from community health centers
(CHCs) and primary health centers (PHCs) and sister tutors from ANMTCs will train lady
health visitors (LHVs) and auxiliary nurse midwives (ANMs).
4. LHVs/ANMs will train accredited social health activists (ASHAs) in monthly meetings.
18. 6
The detailed calculation about the number of participants in each state, the number of courses, and the
costs for all states, are given in Annex B. The following norms have been used to calculate the Rs.9
Cost of various courses
*Cost of one training course for district-level officers/CHC/PHC medical officers
(Group A trainees)
Cost of 2-day training for 15 participants=68,425
Cost for 10 participants=47,150
Cost of training for 20 participants=89,700
Cost of training for 25 participants=110,975
Cost of training for 30 participants=132,250
*Cost one training of 2 days for LHV/ANM (Group C and D trainees)
Cost of 2-day training for 15 participants=51,175
Cost of 2-day training for 30 participants=97,750
Cost of 2-day training for 10 participants=30,475
Cost of 2-day training for 20 participants=56,350
*All calculations based on state norms
Assumptions about phasing of training
Non-focus states
1. All state- and district-level trainings will be done in 2017-18.
2. All subdivision (SD)-level training will also be done in 2017-18.
3. 50% of CHCs and of PHCs, and all LHVs in non-focus states will be covered in 2017-18.
4. 50% of CHCs and of PHCs will be covered in 2018-19 in non-focus states.
5. All ANMs will be covered in 2019-20 in non-focus states.
Focus states and focus districts
1. All state- and district-level trainings will be done in 2017-18.
2. All SD-level training will also be done in 2017-18.
3. 50% of CHCs and of PHCs, and all LHVs will be covered in 2017-18
4. 50% of CHCs, PHCs, and ANMs will be covered in 2018-19.
5. 50% of ANMs will be covered in 2019-20.
9 US$ 1 equal to Rs. 67.2 in 2016.
19. 7
3. RESULTS
The total number of modern method users increases from 128 million in 2016 to 150 million in 2021,
resulting in 22 million additional users of modern contraception (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Number of modern method users 2016–2021
The projected mCPR by state is given in Table 2. Detailed projections by state and year for MWRA,
mCPR, additional users for all methods, and their break-up method-wise are given in Annex A. We
project that 17 states will have mCPR above 60 percent by 2021. The amount of increase varies by state
according to their historical trends. The largest increases in mCPR are projected for Arunachal Pradesh,
Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala, Meghalaya, Manipur,
Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
Table 2: Projected mCPR for calculating the users of modern methods
State
Projected mCPR for all modern methods (%)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Andaman & Nicobar 50 51 52 54 55 56
Andhra Pradesh 70 70 70 70 70 70
Arunachal Pradesh 48 50 51 52 54 55
Assam 43 44 46 47 48 49
Bihar 28 30 31 32 34 35
Chandigarh 68 69 70 70 70 70
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Million
Years
22. 10
The largest number of additional users is projected to come from Uttar Pradesh followed by West
Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Except for West Bengal, these are all focus states.
The aggregated users of new methods and OCPs for India are given in Table 4. The state-wise break-up
is given in Annex A. Under the assumptions described above there will be almost 230,000 users of
injectables in 2021, 76,000 users of Centchroman, and 76,000 users of POPs. Centchroman is currently
sold under social marketing so some awareness already exists; thus, we expect faster uptake of it than
of POPs.1
Table 4: Users of new methods and OCPs 2017–2021
Year Injectable OCP Centchroman POP
2017 89903 253072 85745
2018 145,093 102,081 101,908 101,908
2019 145,862 103,876 103,734 103,734
2020 189,800 92,001 92,001 91,877
2021 229,217 76,406 76,299 76,299
Commodity requirement have been calculated by multiplying the number of users given in Table 4 and
the norm per user given in Table 5. The cost of commodities has been calculated by multiplying the
commodities needed by the unit cost given in Table 5.
Table 5: Commodities required per method per year and costs per method per year
Commodities
Annual
requiremen
Unitcost
Commodity requirements (thousands) and cost (Rs. millions)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Units Cost Units Cost Units Cost Units Cost Units Cost
Injectable 4 vials
Rs. 75
per vial
360 27.0 574 43.1 583 43.5 759 56.6 917 68.3
Centchroman 8 strips
Rs. 2.50
per strip
686 2 811 2.03 824 2.06 731 1.83 606 1.52
POP
13
cycles
Rs. 58
per strip
1,320 76.4 1,340 77.7 1,190 68.8 985 57.1
Total 1046 28.7 2,703 121 2,750 123 2,680 127 2,510 127
23. 11
The cost for three new methods for five years (2017–2021) is summarized in Table 6.
Table 6: Total cost of new methods, 2017–2021 (RS. millions)
Injectable 239
Centchroman 10
POP 280
Total 529
The average annual cost of new contraceptives represents 7 percent of current family planning
expenditure. (Family planning expenditure is calculated from direct expenditure reported under family
planning headings, Rs. 7,265.6 million). Given the government’s strong commitment to family planning, it
seems likely that required funds can be made available from domestic resources.
The aggregated cost of training of service providers is given in Table 7.
Details are provided in in Annex B.
Table 7: Total cost of training (Rs. millions)
2017 2018 2019
State level 1.05
District level 6.41
SD level 4.7
CHC level
Non-focus states 32.9 32.9
Focus states 35.1 35.1
LHV 70.1
ANM
Non-focus states 70.8
Focus states 16.3 16.2
Total 150 84.2 87.0
Total = 321
24. 12
The total cost of procuring new contraceptives and capacity building of service providers is given in
Table 8. The total annual cost represents about 10 percent of current family planning expenditures.
Expenditures are higher in the first three years while training is underway but then drop once the scale-
up phase is complete.
Table 8: Annual and total cost of commodities and capacity building for new methods
2017-2021 (Rs. millions)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-2021
Injectable 28 43 44 57 68 239
Centchroman 3 2 2 2 2 11
POP 76 78 69 57 280
Total 31 121 123 127 127 529
Cost of capacity building 150 84 87 321
Total 181 205 211 128 127 852
The cost of educational material to be used for training will be developed from existing resources; this
cost is not included here.
25. 13
4. CONCLUSION
The modelling results show that the method mix scenario will change over the next five years with the
introduction of three new contraceptives. The new contraceptive methods are not expected to have a
large effect on the use of permanent methods; instead, it is assumed that the new methods will have
more uptakes from young, newly married, low parity couples and adolescents, who aspire to delay and
space their children. Currently, these women use pills, condoms, and traditional methods and because of
side effects or inconvenience of these methods, large percentages of the women will switch and
discontinue the methods. The new methods (DMPA, Centchroman, and POP) are intended to provide
better options for these women, as they are more convenient and have fewer side effects.
The largest number of users for the new methods is projected to come from highly populated northern
states, such as Assam, Bihar, Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. It is estimated that
there will be almost 230,000 users of injectables, and 76,000 users each of Centchroman and of POP in
2021. The annual budgets required for procuring the commodities at the current market cost is around
Rs. 120 million per year (12 crores), less than 10 percent of current family planning expenditure by GOI.
This study provides funding projections and an innovative modelling tool to inform and guide
government budgets, implementation plans, and projected method mix changes over the next five years.
The costs projected by this study will be a useful tool to help GOI allocate its budgets for commodity
purchase in a timely manner. These projections, derived through rigorous modelling methods, will also
help policymakers use the appropriate rationale to justify their budget allocation requests to the
Ministry of Finance and thus will accelerate the complex approval process. Timely budget approvals and
fund flows will enable procurement and distribution processes to continue uninterrupted and will
prevent stock-outs at health facilities.
58. 46
Table A.11: Summary cost of new methods for 2017-2021(Rs.)
Total cost for injectable during 2017-2021 239,195,801
Total cost for Centchroman during 2017-2021 10,926,589
Total cost for POP during 2017-2021 280,133,726
60. 48
States/UTs
No. of
districts
No. of
DHs
NO. of
SDH
No. of
CHCs
No. of
PHCs
No. Of
LHV
No. of
SCs
No. of
ANM
No. of
ASHA
Odisha 30 32 27 377 1305 802 6688 6688 44583
Lakshdeep 1 2 3 4 14 102
Pondicherry 4 5 0 3 24 12 54 54 0
Punjab 22 22 41 150 427 467 2951 2951 18722
Sikkim 4 4 0 2 24 16 147 147 666
Tamil Nadu 32 31 240 385 1372 991 8706 8706 3905
Telengana 31 7 31 114 668 944 4863 4863 28439
Tripura 8 6 11 20 91 0 1017 1017 7590
Uttarakhand 13 19 17 59 257 155 1848 1848 11086
West Bengal 20 22 37 347 909 121 10357 10357 51322
UP 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146588
Bihar 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85387
MP 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64627
Rajasthan 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52407
Jharkhand 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40964
Chhattisgarh 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66713
Assam 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30730
Assumptions:
State-level teams will consist of state trainers who had been doing PPIUD or other clinical training.
District-level team will have as trainers OBGYNs from district hospitals, sister tutors from nursing college (if any), and sister tutors of
ANMTCs.
District-level team will train the MOs from CHCs and PHCs, and sister tutors of ANMTCs will train the LHVs and ANMs.
LHV/ANMs will train ASHAs in monthly meetings.
61. 49
Table B.2: State level courses (number of participants and states/UTs included)
Course 1 (2+1+3+1+2=9 include Daman Dieu, Delhi, D & N, Goa and A & N)
Course 2 (4+4+6=10, MANIPUR+Mizoram+ NAGALAND)
Course 3 (6+8+1=15 Haryana, Punjab and chandigarh)
Course 4 (2+11=13, include Pondicherry and Tamil Nadu)
Course 5 (11+5=16 includes AP and Telengana)
Course 6 (2+7+3=12, Sikkim, West Bengal and Tripura)
Course 7 (11-Gujrat)
Course 8 (6-Himachal Pradesh)
Course 9 (8-J & K)
Course 10 (10+5=15, Karnataka and Kerala)
Course 11 (8+4+4 =16 includes Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam)
Course 12 (12-Maharashtra)
Course 13 (10-Odisha)
Course 14 (5-Uttrakhand)
Course 15 (20-UP)
Course 16 (12+8=20 Bihar+ Jharkhand)
Course 17 (17-MP)
Course 18 (11-Rajasthan)
Course 19 (8-Chhattisgarh)
62. 50
Cost per training course used
*Cost of one training course for district level officers/CHC/PHC medical officers (Group A trainees)
Cost of 2 day training for 15 participants=68425
Cost for 10 participants=47150
Cost of training for 20 participants=89700
Cost of training for 25 participants=110975
Cost of training for 30 participants=132250
*Cost one training of 2 days for LHV/ANM (Group C & D trainees)
Cost of 2 day training for 15 participants=51175
Cost of 2 day training for 30 participants=97750
Cost of 2 day training for 10 participants=30475
Cost of 2 day training for 20 participants=56350
*All calculations based on state norms
*All costs in Rs.
63. 51
Table B.3: Cost of state level trainers (Rs.)
S.No. State Level Courses Number of participants Cost
1 Course 1 (Daman Dieu, Delhi, D&N, Goa and A&N) 9 47150
2 Course 2 (Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland) 10 47150
3 Course 3 (Haryana, Punjab, and Chandigarh) 15 68425
4 Course 4 (Pondicherry and Tamil Nadu) 13 68425
5 Course5 (AP and Telengana) 16 68425
6 Course6 (Sikkim, West Bengal, and Tripura) 12 47150
7 Course7 (Gujrat) 11 47150
8 Course8 (Himachal Pradesh and K&K) 14 68425
9 Course9 (Karnataka and Kerala) 15 68425
10 Course10 (Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam) 16 68425
11 Course11 (Maharashtra) 12 47150
12 Course12 (Odisha) 10 47150
13 Course13 (UP and Uttarakahnd) 25 110975
14 Course14 (Bihar and Jharkhand)) 20 89700
15 Course15 (MP and Chhatisgarh) 25 110975
16 Course16 (Rajasthan) 11 47150
Total 1052250