Identifying the forces of change, building scenarios or defining a strategy are some of the steps that this presentation illustrates as parts of the foresight method application. Check out "Empowering local organisations through foresight" by Robin Bourgeois, Senior Foresight Advisor, GFAR Secretariat at: http://bit.ly/17GoTt4

1. S2. Identification of plausible
futures
1

2. S2.6 Define the states of the driving forces
S2.7 Build up scenarios
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of change
S1.3 Define the forces of change
S1.4 Measure their mutual influences
S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the
forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of
plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a
strategy
Detailed steps
2

3. Objective - define possible future states of the driving
forces
Method
 Group discussion
 “Brainstorming”
Output
 Contrasted and mutually exclusive states for each driving
force
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forces
3

4.  A state is an hypothesis about what could
happen to a force; it is a description of this
force in the future
 Several states are considered including
ruptures
 For each force, the states must be contrasted
and mutually exclusive (two states cannot
happen simultaneously)
What is a state?
4

5.  Knowledge about the force of change is necessary
 Document each force of change about its past situation, its
evolution up today, what made it change, and how it could
change in the future
 Consider trends and ruptures
 Think about desirable and undesirable states
 Think about what could probably happen (the trend)
 Think about other possibilities
 Be creative…
How to define states?
5

6.  Draw a table with the driving forces in the first column and
space for the states in the next columns
 Take the first driving force and distribute colored cards
 Write one state per card according to the color, for exple:
pink= desirable grey=not desirable blue=trend yellow=rupture
 Collect all cards and display them on a wall (grouping)
 Discuss the cards until you reach a reasonable number of
states (2-6) by ensuring that they are contrasted and mutually
exclusive
 Write the states in the corresponding line of the driving force
 Repeat for the next driving force until completed
How to do it as a group?
6
Support material: S2.6 Methodological Note

7. Example of states (Mayotte)
RuptureTrendDesirable Undesirable
Driving force 1 2 3 4 5
Behavior General Respect Local respect Erratic Reject Rupture
Infrastructures
Upgraded to
European norms
Maintenance
Spatial
heterogeneity
Focused on
external
activities
Degradation
Immigration
Integration of
illegal migrants
Existence of
illegal migrants
Expulsion of all
illegal migrants
Majority of
illegal migrants
Modes of
Production
A new hybrid
model
Promotion of
local agriculture
Dual agriculture
Intensive
agriculture
No more
agriculture
Land use
management
style
Concertation and
care of actors’
expectations
Unilateral, top-
down, no
contestation
Numerous
centres of
décision; no
coordination
Conflits with
the population
Control and
regulation of
agriculture
Adaptation to
local context
Enforced with
communication
Limited and
erratic
application
Abandon of
rules and
controls
Local know-how
and knowledge
Promotion
Hybridation with
external
knowledge
Simple
transmission
Reject of non
local knowledge
Disparition
7

8. S2.6 Define the states of the driving forces
S2.7 Build up scenarios
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of change
S1.3 Define the forces of change
S1.4 Measure their mutual influences
S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the
forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of
plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a
strategy
Detailed steps
S2 – Identification of
plausible futures
8

9. Objective - Build scenarios exploring the widest range
of possible evolutions of the system
Method
 Group discussion / brainstorming
 The frame of a scenario is a combination of different states
of the driving forces
 A scenario is a description of the system in the future : a
vision and a path that leads to that vision from now
Output
 Several contrasted and mutually exclusive scenarios
S2.7 Building scenarios
9

10.  A scenario is a description of how the future may unfold
according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent
set of assumptions about key relationships between driving
forces
 A scenario is a story entailing an image of the future and
indications on a path leading to that future
 Each scenario must be plausible, contrasted and exclusive of
all other scenarios
 Altogether the scenarios cover a large range of possible
evolutions
What is a scenario?
10

11.  Use the table with the driving forces and their states
 Start with highlighting incompatible states vertically across
driving forces (see next slide for exercise)
 Chose one state for each driving force and combine them
to form a coherent set of hypotheses about the future
 Consider trends, extremes, ruptures
 Think about desirable and undesirable scenarios
 Think about what could probably happen (the trend)
 Think about other possibilities
 Be creative…
How to create a scenario?
11

12. How to find incompatible states?
Exercise with the participants: identify two incompatible states 12
1 2 3 4 5
AICTDEVPT
High tech, high speed ICT facilities
affordable and accessible to all
people
Limited signal ICT facilities are
availale only for elites and
powerful
B
GOVATTITUDE
(incl.
ORGANICPOLIC
Y)
Strong will and commitment to
action to frame and implement
policies and programmes benfiting
the people including the poor
including promoting organic
agriculture policies
Collusion between local
governement and private
sector companies lead to
unfavorable local policies for
most local people including
promotion of high input
intensive agroindustrial
agrciculture
Good policies and
programmes for local
development are not
implemented
There is no more local
government and local
programmes are
decided and
implemented by local
representatives of
international
companies
local government
policies are only
implemented when
forces by citizens
organisations and
movements
C
RURALINFRAST
(incl.
AGPROCESSING
and
LOCALMARKINC
ENT)
Community-based agro-
infrastrucutres are run and
managed by farmer-led
agricooperatives thanks to energy
efficient and sustanaible rural
infrastructures present in all
communities enabling local
products to meet quality standards
and dominate local markets and
thanks to government regulating
farm gate prices
High cost and unequal access
to infrastrucutre induce unfair
competition with imported
products resulting in the
degradation of processinfg
infrastructures and absence of
incentives for local production
and local markets and prices
controled by monopolies and
cartels
All infrastrucutre defunct
including agro-
processing
infrastructures, no
incentives for local
production which is
limited ti self sufficiency
Modern infrastructures
and and advanced
agroprocessing
technologies target
specific market nices
for local prodcuts to be
sold internationnally
DPEOPLEBEHAV
Unity, solidarity in diversity,
cooperation through organized
groups
People are individualistic,
unorganized and insensitive to
others' needs
People belong to
organized groups which
cannot resolve their
differences leading to
conflict, war and anarchy
All citizens are
controlled by electronic
devices 24/7 and are
forces to behave
according to the norm
(not the elite)
ELOCORGCAP
Local organizations strongly
influence policies because they are
able to mobilize people locally and
build local developement initiatives
that they can implement by
themselves or negotiate with local
givernment
Local organisations have
limited influence on policies
because they are themselves
influenced by other
stakeholders (local
government, private sectors,
other organisations)
Local organizations
influence policies to
serve the interest of their
leaders and not the
members
Local organizations do
not influence policy
because they are
prohibited by anti-
crime, anti-terrorism
laws
FYOUTHAGRIC
Youth are actively engaged locally
in agriculture as independant
farmers and enthusiast about
profitable sustainable agriculture,
natural resources management
No youth want to engage in
agriculture, abandonning
farms and villages only to
those who have no other
option
Multinational companies
start large scale
operations and employ
youth in farm and
processing work as paid
workers
Some youth are
engaged in agriculture,
operating their farms
from larger cities where
they live

13. Defining the frames of the scenarios
 The frame of a scenario is a combination of the code of the
driving force and the number of the selected state
 Display the table with the driving forces and their states
 Distribute four different colored cards to each participant
 Write one frame per card according to the color, for example
pink= desirable;
grey=not desirable;
blue=trend;
yellow=rupture;
How to do it as a group?
A1
B1
C1
D1
E1
F1
G2
A2
B2
C2
D3
E2
F3
G3
A5
B5
C4
D5
E4
F4
G5
A5
B5
C4
D2
E3
F4
G4 13

14. Driving force 1 2 3 4 5
A. Behavior General Respect Local Respect
Erratic,
impredictible
Reject Rupture
B. Infrastructure
European
standards
Maintenance High heterogeneity
Focused on foreign
exchanges
Degradation
C. Immigration
Progressive
integration of
illegal migrants
Presence of illegal
migrants
Expulsion of all
illegal migrants
Majority of illegal
migrants
D. Production
pattern
New model based
on local and
external
knowledge and
technologies
Local model
supported and
promoted
Two models
domination of
intensive farming
Intensive,
Survival of
subsistence
farming
Abandon,
Survival of
subsistence
farming
E. Land use
management
Concerted and
inclusion of local
actors expectations
Conflicts with the
population
Unilateral, top-
down, no protest
Numerous poles of
decision, no
coordination
F. Control and rules
for AFLA
Adaptation to local
specificities
Communication and
stronger control and
sanctions
Limited and erratic
implementation
Abandon of rules
and control
G. Local know-how
and knowledge
(LKK)
Promotion of LKK
Preservation and
transmission of LKK
Hybridization with
external KK
Rejection of non
local KK
Fading of LKK
14
Examples of frames (Mayotte)
The Maore Garden The Trading Post

15. Defining the frames of the scenarios
 Collect all cards and display them on a wall (grouping them
by codes)
 Discuss the frames until they form contrasted and mutually
exclusive groups
 Write the frame of each scenario putting together the
states of the driving forces, finding some logics in their
combination
 If the logics seems hard to understand, discard that frame
How to do it as a group?
15

16. Writing states of the driving forces
Grouping the states
The final table of states
Writing frames
Grouping
frames
Displaying
the frames
16

17. Developing the scenarios
 For each frame, develop the scenarios by characterizing
the state of the output forces
 Then, define the state of the leverages that is consistent
with the state of the driving forces and output forces
 Complete with the bunch forces
 Reflect on the outliers
How to do it in a group?
17
Support material: S2.7 Methodological Note

18. Nine sceanrios of the place of agriculture
and the rural world in Mayotte by 2020
The integrated rurality The Maore garden
The Trading postSelf-management
18

19. Nine sceanriosof the place of agriculture
and the rural world in Mayotte by 2020
The Patchwork Agri-entrepreneurs, commuters and tobe
The internal borderThe agricultural letdown Duality
19