Gold prices are recovering but remain within recent trading ranges above $1750. While inflation concerns support gold, tighter monetary policy expectations limit upside. Technical analysis shows gold moving sideways without direction, capped below $1770 and supported above $1750. Should inflation persist amid slowing growth, stagflation risks could emerge and support gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.

1. Gold Continues To Recover

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• Gold Price Forecast: Technicals For 11th
October
• Gold Price Forecast For December 2021
• 3 Reasons Gold Will Fall Further
• Gold Bulls Lose Steam As The USD Picks Up
• Gold Fundamental Overview
• Gold Technical Analysis
• Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head

3. Gold Price Forecast: Technicals For
11th October

4. Gold Price Forecast For December
2021

5. 3 Reasons Gold Will Fall Further
• Tighter global monetary policy ahead:
• Fed to start hiking early 2023
• Bank of England and Bank of Canada to
probably hike before then
• ECB, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia,
Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank will
likely hike later
• Only in China has the central bank been easing
in piecemeal steps to support the economy.

6. 2-Year UST Real Yields To Rise:
• "There are two dynamics at play here.
• First, we expect the 2yr US treasury yields to
rise a bit more than what markets are now
expecting.
• Moreover, we think that inflationary pressures
will ease. This results in higher 2y US real
yields and that will weigh on gold prices going
forward."

7. ABN Amro See The USD
• BN Amro see the USD as rising further
ahead.
• "This will likely be a modest increase.
• Higher US dollar is generally negative for
gold prices."

8. XAU/USD Capped At $1,770, Returns
To Previous Ranges
• Gold's upside attempt fails at $1,770.
• Bullion rally loses steam with the USD picking up.
• XAU/USD remains trading without a clear bias.
• Gold futures’ appreciated on Tuesday, as inflation
concerns hurt risk appetite, and the pair reached
session highs at $1,770 before pulling back to
$1,760 with the USD bouncing up as the US bond
yields pare losses.
• The XAU/USD remains positive in the daily chart,
yet still trapped within the last weeks’ horizontal
range between $1,745 and $1,770/80.

9. Gold Bulls Lose Steam As The USD
Picks Up
• Bullion is giving away ground on the afternoon US
session, weighed by renewed USD strength.
• The greenback remains firm, fuelled by the firm
advance on US treasury yields.
• The 10-year US T-Bond note has returned to
levels past 1.60% after a weak opening, with the
investors pricing that the Federal Reserve will
soon announce the end of the Quantitative
Easing era.

10. The US Dollar Index
• The US dollar index, which measures the value of
the USD against a basket of the most traded
currencies, remains firm, after bouncing from
session lows at 94.25, to reach levels only a few
pips shy of year-to-date highs at 94.50.
• In the absence of first-tier macroeconomic
releases, the market is focusing on September’s
US Consumer Prices Index figures and the
minutes of the FOMC, due on Wednesday, which
could have a significant impact on the US dollar.

11. XAU/USD Remains Moving Without A
Clear Direction
• From a technical perspective, gold prices remain
trapped within a consolidative range, with upside
attempts limited below $1,770 (October 5 high)
and $1,780 (October 8 high) above here, bulls
might gain confidence and push the pair towards
$1,807 (September 14 and 15 highs).
• On the downside, immediate support lies at
$1,750 (October 10, 11, and 12 lows), $1,745
(October 6 low), and below here, a key support
area at $1,725 (September 29, 30 low).

12. XAU/USD Technical Analysis

13. Moving Averages

14. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Gold price is posting modest gains but remains well
within the recent trading range above the $1750 level
so far this Tuesday.
• A flight to safety amid intensifying stagflation fears
offers support to the traditional safe-haven gold.
• Further, a pause in the US Treasury yields rally aides
the rebound in gold price.
• However, the Fed’s tapering expectations continue to
limit gold’s upside potential, as investors await the
return of full markets and Wednesday’s critical US
inflation report for a fresh directional move in gold
price.

15. Gold Technical Analysis

16. Gold Technical Analysis - I
• Gold is moving back and forth, without a clear directional
bias, with a bunch of healthy barriers stacked up in either
direction.
• Immediate upside is capped at $1762, which is the
convergence of the Bollinger Band one-hour Upper and the
previous day’s high.
• The next significant topside hurdle is seen at $1765, where
the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month aligns.
• The Fibonacci 61.8% one-week at $1767 will then challenge
the bearish commitments.
• Gold bulls need to find acceptance above the pivot point
one-day R3 at $1771 to initiate a meaningful uptrend.

17. Gold Technical Analysis - II
• Alternatively, gold buyers will once again challenge bids
at $1755, the convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-
week and Fibonacci 38.2% one-day.
• A sustained move below the latter will expose the
$1750 psychological level, below which the next
downside target at $1748 could get tested. That level is
the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month.
• The next cushion appears around $1745, where the
previous week’s low intersects the pivot point one-day
S2.
• The pivot point one-week S1 at $1741 will be the level
to beat for gold bears.

18. Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head
• Over the past two months, economic growth has
disappointed even as inflation has exceeded
expectations.
• A real risk of stagflationary conditions, with rising
costs amid lower growth, appears to be on the cards.
• Stagflation, if severe, can be damaging to both the
economy and financial markets. But we don’t need a
repeat of the 1970s for assets to be affected.
• Our analysis shows that even mild stagflationary
conditions can have similar asset impacts to those in
more severe stagflations.

19. Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head - I
• Stagflation has historically hit equities hard. Fixed
income returns have been variable, while both
commodities and gold have fared well.
• Gold’s historically strong performance can be
attributed to:
• higher inflation and market volatility– supporting
capital preservation motives.
• lower real interest rates – supporting both
opportunity cost and growth risk motives.

20. Gold Continues To Recover

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Continues To Recover