Historical Pompeo’s visit to Minsk amid Russia-Belarus tensions was met with thousands of posts, comments, memes, manipulative publications online. The extensive network of pro-Russian organizations, digital influencers, Russia-friendly media, and particularly web-services, including Yandex and Mail.ru news, Odnoklassniki and VK, Telegram messenger, was mobilized to fill out the information space with the specific narrative and mislead the population. This lecture is about the role of media in Russia-Belarus conflict, mechanics of the Russian propaganda machine in Belarus, and how technology helps regimes to manipulate public opinion and perception of the events.

1. TEXT

2. OUTLINE
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ON THE INTERNET
TIMELINE OF MOSCOW-MINSK CONFLICT
KREMLIN MEDIA TOOLBOX IN BELARUS
TACTICS AND SCENARIOS
CONTENT ANALYSIS
RECOMMENDATIONS

3. 2018

4. US high Officials visit Minsk
and meet Lukashenka.
Lukashenka’s ”anti-Moscow”
interview to “Ekho Moskvy”
Lukashenka meets Putin,
negotiations in Sochi, some
integration roadmaps are
apparently signed
Pompeo meets Lukashenka
Anti-Russian protests in
Minsk, Dec 7-8, Dec 20-21,
Dec 29
Russia stops
supplying oil
Lukashenka meets Putin, no
agreement on Oil and gas prices
Belarus buys oil from private
companies and Norway
Agreement on gas,
negotiations on oil
continue

5. THE WEST RUSSIA
Common values
Political Perspectives
Cheap Hydrocarbons
Security Guarantee
World Bank/IMF Loans
up to 35% of exports
Blackmailing/balancing Russia
Security Guarantee
GEOPOLITICAL SEESAW

6. RUSSIAN TOOLS OF PRESSURE
ON LUKASHENKA
Exports Transit/
border Hydrocarbons Media Military

7. KREMLIN’S OFFENSIVE
2019-2021ON FREE INTERNET
Continuous drills on
filtering content
Encrypted messengers
blocked
Defamation of foreign
media and NGO
(Foreign Agents act)
Facebook and Twitter fined
and can be blocked next
Fines for shares and
reposts introduced
Prohibition against using
western software and IT
Advantaging Russian
platforms (law on
"Accessible internet")
Threatening journalists
and activists

9. Russian sovereign Internet
Yandex Aura

10. KREMLIN INFLUENCE CAMPAIGN IN BELARUS
News Aggregators
Social Media
Regional websites
“Think Tanks”
VK Communities
Sputnik
Telegram Channels

11. ALARMIST
ALARMIST
APPEASING
ANTI-RUSSIAN
PRO-RUSSIAN
Lukashenka dealt with USA;
NATO base will be in Minsk,
greek-catholicism and Latin
alphabet to be introduced
Lukashenka agreed for the
common currency, parliament,
and government with Russia,
Belarus, to be absorbed entirely.
Nothing is changing; integration
is going according to the plan,
provocateurs sow panic, and
confusion
Target group: BelarusiansTarget group: Russians

12. What Lukashenka wants?
To tear away from
Russia
To reconcile with
Russia
To leave as it is
SOURCE: VZ.RU
45.99%
7.13%
46.89%

13. LUKASHENKAAS TRAITOR Lukashenka built an
anti-Russia coalition
with the West and
Opposition.
The narrative is
targeting Russian
Audience
Why? 51% of
Russians have
positive feelings
about Lukashenka,
only 5% — negative.

14. LUKASHENKAAS PRODIGAL SON
Lukashenka was
under pressure of
the West and
opposition. We
should help him.
Integration is
unavoidable. All
documents signed.
We live in the
Union State
already.

15. Belarus
Russia
NegativeNeutral+positive
Sentiment analysis
Top 10 sources of Messages

16. TACTICS

17. World Wide Web
Websites, Facebook
Pages, Instagram,
Twitter, Youtube…
Deep Web
Dark Web
Closed Groups,
Telegram channels,
WhatsApp secret chats
Closed invites-only sites

18. “FAN-TYPE” DISTRUBUTION
ONE PIECE OF CONTENT SHARED MULTIPLE TIMES

19. TROJAN HORSE TACTIC
MIMICKING LOCAL NEWS

20. Large and powerful:
RT, Sputnik, Rossiya-24
Small and many:
Consortiums of
multibranded pages
Hyper-local, segmented, decentralized

21. THE MOST AGGRESIVE
PROPAGANDA
HIGH-LEVEL
DISINFORMATION
MEDUM-LEVEL
DISINFORMATION
LOW-LEVEL
DISINFORMATION
Eastcenter, 2019

22. Use hate speech against independent journalists and
activists
Share chauvinistic, pseudo-scientific content,
historical revisionism and conspiracy theories
Convincing the Belarusian people that their language
is artificial, their history is fake and their country only
has a future as a part of the union state with Russia
NARRATIVE ANALYSIS:

23. Network of regional websites
Eastcenter, 2019

24. The owner of the domains shares the same first and last names with an
employee of CIS-EMO, an organization that claims to monitor elections
across the Commonwealth of Independent States

25. TEXT

27. Eastcenter, 2019

30. TEXT

32. TEXT
VKONTAKTE
86 LANGUAGES,
260-400 MLN
USERS
ODNOKLASSNIKI
14 LANGUAGES
200-330 MLN USERS
41.2% of Russians use Odnoklassniki

33. Institute of Sociology, National Academy os Science, 2019
SOCIAL MEDIA USERS IN BELARUS
VKONTAKTE
ODNOKLASSNIKI
INSTAGRAM
FACEBOOK
0 0.125 0.25 0.375 0.5
22.7%
29.3%
42.6%
43%

34. Source: Brand Analytics, October 2019
MESSAGES AND AUTHORS
VKONTAKTE
ODNOKLASSNIKI
INSTAGRAM
FACEBOOK
TWITTER
YOUTUBE
0 7500 15000 22500
35
44
129
508
981
1,498
1,616
1,582
3,864
6,350
8,656
20,668
(IN THOUSANDS)

35. Institute of Sociology, National Academy os Science, 2019
MESSENGERS USERS IN BELARUS
VIBER
SKYPE
WHATSAPP
TELEGRAM
0 0.175 0.35 0.525 0.7
13.1%
17.6%
19.8%
65.4%

36. COMMUNITY FOLLOWERS
FOR A STRONG AND PROSPEROUS BELARUS 23895
BELARUS, RUSSIA, UKRAINE - RUSSIA! SLAVS 14603
SOBER BELARUS-SOBRIETY HLS FAMILY PATRIOTISM 7316
POLITRING 12899
CHESNOK 11042
WE ARE PATRIOTS OF WHITE RUSSIA! 7138
ADEQUATE VITEBSK 7084
ZMAGAR - USED GASKET 6389
VITEBSK PRO 6061
HISTORY OF BELARUS 7283
GOMEL AGAINST 902
ANTI-MAIDAN BELARUS 1588
RUSSIAN AGITATION. GREAT, SMALL, WHITE RUSSIA 2878
WEBSITE PAGE "WESTERN RUSSIA" 1671
ZOZ | FUNNY OFFENDED ZMAGARS 1071
MY COUNTRY KRESY WSCHODNIE 654
MY COUNTRY REPUBLIC OF BELARUS 600
Pro-Russian
Communities on VK
Total followers: 113074

37. Source: isans.org/toxic/

40. Anti-Americanism

41. Anti-Americanism

42. Anti-LGBTQ

43. Anti-Lithuanian

44. Anti-opposition

45. Pro-Lukashenka

46. Pro-Imperialist

49. HOW TELEGRAM BECAME FAMOUS
Promise to Ban
Messenger
Discussing Telegram ban
on National channels
Launching 100+
anonymous channels
Periodic leaks
Citations in
traditional media
Anonymous channels in
neighboring countries
X

50. CHANNEL FOLLOWERS
NOT BELARUS TELEVISION 2492
BULBA OF THRONES 10491
BELARUSIAN INSIDER 2340
BELARUSIAN GAMBIT 2609
KNITWORK 18166
EASTERN PRETENSE 2798
Pro-Russian
Communities on
Telegram
Total followers: 38896+

51. Top Telegram Channels by number of followersTop Telegram Channels by number of messages

52. HOW TELEGRAM REACTED TO
POMPEO’S VISIT TO MINSK

53. TELEGRAM ON POMPEO’S VISIT:
POMPEO BROUGHT PERSONAL SECRET LETTER TO LUKASHENKA FROM TRUMP
U.S. PROPOSED LUKASHENKATO CREATE ONE BIG STATE INCLUDING BALTIC
STATES, POLAND, UKRAINE AND BELARUS
LUKASHENKA WAS PROMISED MEMBERSHIP IN WTO, EU AND NATO AND $25 BN
U.S.AND RUSSIAAGREED: LUKASHENKA MUST LEAVE. INTEGRATION WILL
CONTINUE BUTWITHOUT HIM
“IF WE WILL NOTANNEX BELARUS, ITWILL BE DONE BY NATO SOLDIERS”
RUSSIA MUST OFFER LUKASHENKA MORE THAN JUST CHEAP OILAND GAS
RUSSIA DOESN’T NEED BELARUS TODAY,TOO EXPENSIVE. INTEGRATION SHOULD
END IN 2022

54. MESSAGING:
No unified message: controversial ideas and conspiracies
Lukashenka as an enemy vs. Lukashenka as a victim
Demonization of the West: USA, Poland and Lithuania as
major adversaries
Integration is unavoidable: it's a matter of time and form
Often reference and comparison to Ukraine:

55. Vulnerable to
Russian
Disinformation
YOUTH
UNDER 25 Y.O
ELDERLY
NOSTALGIC FOR
«THE GREAT PAST»
•
ARMY
AND FORMER
MILITARY
POPULATIONS
WITH LOW MEDIA LITERACY
MINORITIES
ETHNIC, LANGUAGE,
RELIGIOUS
SUPPORTERS
OF FAR-RIGHT
IDEOLOGIES