First evidence del progetto internazionale sull’impatto dell'automazione nel mondo del lavoro – in termini di produttività, occupazione e new skills -  e sull'individuazione delle migliori policies possibili.

2. Outline: The rage against the machine
- Research questions
#1: This time is different (isn’t it?)
#2: Will a robot steal my job?
#3: Will a robot steal my salary?
#4: What to be done?
- First evidence from the EU by Tortuga
- Conclusions
1

3. RQ#1: This time is different (isn’t it?)
- The shift from labor to capital is
a secular trend;
- Machines have been
substituting for human labor
for a loooong time…
- …the process is accelerating
(?)…
- …but the productivity rate of
growth is slowing;
- Are we measuring the right
stuff?

4. RQ#2: Will a robot steal my job?
- Yes: robots are taking over humans
in a number of tasks (especially in
the manufacturing sector)…
- …but no: new jobs are being
created elsewhere in the economy;
- Technology & international trade
are displacing jobs in some
countries…
- …but other countries have record-
low unemployment rates.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment Rate in selected countries
USA GBR ITA DEU RUS
Source: WB

5. RQ#3: Will a robot steal my salary?
- Automation may not
result in (net) job losses,
but it may increase
inequality;
- Careers are made more
discontinuous…
- …as high-skill workers
gain and low-skill ones
lag behind;
- As a result inequality
may be on a ramp…
- …or maybe not.

6. RQ#4: What to be done?
DO NOTHING
BAN (TAX) THE ROBOTS
ACTIVE LABOR MARKET POLICIESUNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME

7. Outline: The rage against the machine
- Research questions
- First evidence from the EU by Tortuga
Productivity
Employment
Inequality
- Conclusions
2

8. EVIDENCE FROM THE EU – PRODUCTIVITY
There has been a low productivity growth in the last 20 years
Will robots change this trend?
Source: IFR, OECD 2015
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000
Multifactorproductivity:2010-2015growth
Total shipments of industrial robots 2010-2015
Robots and Productivity
France
Germany
Italy
North America
United Kingdom
Japan
Spain
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
GrossValueAddedperhourworked($)
Productivity
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
European Union 28

9. EVIDENCE FROM THE EU – EMPLOYMENT (1/2)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
EU15 Germany France Italy UK
Percentage change of employment share by sectors:
1995-2007
Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Financial services Services
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
EU15 Germany France Italy UK
Percentage change of employment share by sectors:
2008-2016
Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Financial services Services
- The sector in which the employment share decreased the most was the manufacturing one
- On the contrary, the employment share in the services has increased throughout the period

10. EVIDENCE FROM THE EU – EMPLOYMENT (2/2)
0.0
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
70,000.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Average Annual Gross Earnings per Sector, Purchasing
Power Standard
GERMANY
Manufacturing Financial intermediation Services
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
35,000.0
40,000.0
45,000.0
50,000.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Annual Gross Earnings per sector, Purchasing Power
Standard
FRANCE
Manufacturing Financial intermediation Services
• In both countries, average annual gross earnings in the service sector are smaller and have grown less than in the manufacturing
sector.
• Since employment is growing in the service sector and is declining in manufacturing, we witness a polarization of the labor market.

11. EVIDENCE FROM THE EU – INEQUALITY
Incidence of digital skill gap by level of digital skill needed by job and
occupation in 2014
Incidence of digital skill gap by level of digital skill needed by the job
in 2014
Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey
- The perceived digital skill gap differs according to the type of job
- Around 28% of the European workforce considers its level of digital skills low in relation to what is required by its
job
ICT SKILL GAPS

12. Outline: The rage against the machine
- Research questions
- First evidence from the EU by Tortuga
- Conclusions
3

13. Conclusion
• Complex issue, uncertain causes, unclear effects:
• Automation is likely to increase productivity…
• …with little effect on net employment…
• …and significant changes in the return-on-skills…
• …that may lead to higher inequality;
• Policy may make a difference with regard to:
• How fast automation happens (and whether a country falls apart);
• To what extent does it impact total employment;
• How skills are created and developed;
• And whether or not growth is inclusive;
• Work in progress!

14. Thank you for your attention
WORKING GROUP
Lodovico Bianchi, Andrea Carini, Andrea Cerrato,
Andrea Chiantello, Marco Felici, Giulia Gitti, Roberto
Lancellotti, Katharina Oerder, Benedetta Pavesi, David
Rinaldi, Matteo Sartori, Carlo Stagnaro, Leila Giulia
Travaglini, Giordana Vicidomini, Alessandro Zona