1. Globalization Pillar
Eric Newman

2. Not all countries look like China

3. Or Brazil

4. Some look like this

5. National differences
• Social rather than legal contracts
• Corruption
• Postal systems
• Different rates and types of piracy
• General rule
– Law, primary care, nursing, building, civil/electrical
engineering veers toward local, culture bound
– Math, hard sciences, medical specialties tend to be more
universal

6. … different in
• The role of intermediaries can vary, e.g. in Japan,
libraries have less influence on budgets, less
command of English
• Demographics vary- China is building, opening
universities; Japan is consolidating them.
• Prices
– China are a fraction of ours (but so are salaries)
– Imported book markup capped by law in India
– Japan and Europe prices are higher.

7. Publishing issues
• Multiple publication, copyright and medical ethics
• English language ability may not match quality of the
underlying science
• Large clinical studies less common
• Some places in China offer a bounty based on Impact
Factor
• In Japan, books monitoring where your best chances
of being published are based on nationality
• Cross-national cooperation growing in China- US, but
also Australia, Japan, Korea

8. Areas of scholarly publishing vary
• Each column represents
a country; each color a
subject area
• Look at the different
mix, one country with
75% of the papers from
Natural Sciences, but
negligible Medicine.

9. Patterns of Collaboration and Citation
• France produces physics
and chemistry papers
with more engineering
applications
• Germany more
theoretical
• Spain emphasizes
agricultural applications
• China and Japan applied
mathematics

10. World by Scientific Research 2001
© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

11. STMS in 2020? 2030?
Adapted from © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

12. 2001, Watch China, India & Brazil
© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

13. 2020, 2030 Again-China, India, Brazil
Adapted from © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

14. Global Forecasting

15. BRICs
• Goldman Sachs coined the term BRIC (Brazil, Russia,
India and China) in 2001
• Drew attention to the growing importance of these
economies to world growth
• Forecast China surpassing Germany, UK and Japan in
the size of its economy

17. Key Economic Drivers
• Demographic trends
• GDP trends
• Exchange rates trends
• Research and Development spending
• Education
• Political and Currency stability
• Legal system and corruption

18. Population Pyramids as destiny
China 1982 China 2000 China 2030
UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 11

19. China’s Demographic Dividend
UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 14
Producers
3.0%
Annual Growth Rate %
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5% Consumers
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042

20. Population Pyramids as destiny
China 1982, China 2000, Japan 1950 China 2030
India, Africa 2010 Japan 2010, 2030
UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 11 Europe 2020

21. GDP % Growth
15
10
China
5 India
Japan
0 East & South Asia
World
-5
World Economic Outlook 2010
-10

22. R&D % Spend by Region
SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.
45
40
35
30
25
20 1996- $525
15 Billion
10
5 2007- $1.1
0 Trillion
North Europe Asia-Pacific Rest of
America World

23. R&D Spending $ Billions
400
350
300
250
200 United States
EU-27
150
Asia-8
100
50 SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

24. R&D Demographics
Average Annual Growth %
in number researchers 1995-2007
SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.
%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4

25. Tertiary Education by Country
• 1980 (73 million) • 2000 (194 million)
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
USA Russia Japan China India German UK Brazil

26. Scholarly Publishing Drivers
• Educational spending and enrollment
• Numbers of and income of professionals
• Government policies and library budgets
• Patents, pharmaceutical spending
• Language:
– English completely supplants the local language in India
and some small but rich markets- SE Asia, Scandinavia.
– But local language predominates for Practitioners in larger
countries- Germany, Japan, China, Brazil

27. Payoff: China’s % share of research
25
20
15
10
1999-2003
5
2004-08
0

28. Dan Strempel
• Simba Information has been serving the
publishing industry since 1975
• Dan and I working together since 2007
• Goldman Sachs also uses Simba!