Swan(sea) Song – personal research during my six years at Swansea ... and bey...
Ignite 2015 NA - Noël Perry - "Transportation - A Year on the Edge"
1. Elemica
Ignite North America
The Old Rules Don’t Apply
Prepared by
Noël Perry
Transportation Economics
FTR Associates
October 2015
HPCLC - October 2015 67
8. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 74
After many decades of moving below inflation
truckload prices are now moving firmly above it.
Source: FTR, Transportation Economics
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1992=1
Truckload Prices & Infla>on
Truckload CPI
9. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 75
The industry is in a lull for new regulations before a record tranche
will hit sometime between 2017 and 2019.
Source: Transportation Economics
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2011.1
2011.2
2011.3
2011.4
2012.1
2012.2
2012.3
2012.4
2013.1
2013.2
2013.3
2013.4
2014.1
2014.2
2014.3
2014.4
2015.1
2015.2
2015.3
2015.4
2016.1
2016.2
2016.3
2016.4
2017.1
2017.2
2017.3
2017.4
2018.1
2018.2
2018.3
2018.4
Addi>onal Hires Caused By Regula>on
Electronic Stability Controls
Speed Limiters
Training Provisions
OSHA Worker Protec>on
Minimum Insurance
Safe Harbor
Entry Proficiency
Drug & Alcohol Data Base/Hair tes>ng
Prohibi>on Of Coercion
Payern Of Viola>on
Independent Contractor Rules
Safe Food Transporta>on
Motor Carrier Protec>on Act
HOS
ELD
Health Regula>ons and Treatment
HOS
10. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 76
Supply chains face a major pricing exposure beginning
in 2017 and peaking in 2018 and 2019.
Source: FTR
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004-2005 2014 Current 2018-2019
YOY Change
Pricing Comparisons – Previous Peaks
Spot Contract
.98% .99%
.95%
105%
Capacity U>liza>on
14. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 80
At maturity the digital tools will revolutionize
cost, capacity and supply chain design.
Source: Transportation Economics
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
Risk cost Fuel Cost Driver Cost Produc>vity Total
Cost Savings Per Mile
Digital-Tool Enabled Cost Saving by 2030
15. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 81
The industry is at the beginning of a
revolutionary acceleration of automation tools.
Source: Transportation Economics
In Play
In
Prototype
In
Regula>on
16. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 82
A revolution in manufacturing automation will
dramatically reduce imports of finished goods.
Source: Transport Economics
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
USA 2015 Asia 2015 Mexico
2015
USA 2025 Asia 2025 Mexico
2025
USA 2015 = 1
Manufacturing Economics
Typical Retail Good
Labor Capital Materials
Logis>cs Overhead
17. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 83
A revolution in product presentation and ordering will force radical
change in retail distribution points (current retail stores.)
Source: Transport Economics, various internet data.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2005 2010 2015
2000 = 1
Global Internet Penetra#on
Users Sales
18. Source: FTR HPCLC - October 2015 84
Automation of product picking and delivery will radically transform
final-mile transportation.
Source: Transport Economics
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2015 2030
Cost Of Final-Mile Delivery
Typical Daily Market Basket
Home Delivery Self Pickup