Report on recent developments in Georgia and the Region related to upcoming 2020 elections, hybrid activities the Kremlin implements against Georgia. David Gareja, role of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Author: Egor Kuroptev.

1. GEORGIA
BETWEEN
AZERBAIJAN
AND
TURKEY.
Launch
of
the
2020
Kremlin’s
elections
campaign
in
Georgia.
By
Egor
Kuroptev
(July,
2019).
ALTERNATIVE
“ENEMIES”
–
is
a
working
name
of
the
strategy
used
by
the
Kremlin
to
interfere
in
Georgian
politics
with
specific
goal
of
enhancing
its
influence
in
the
Georgian
parliament
and
other
spheres
of
interests.
It
is
obvious
that
after
Russia-­‐Georgia
war
in
2008
it’s
very
difficult
for
Russian
government
to
push
Kremlin
supported
political
actors,
who
promote
“dialogue
with
Russia”,
into
any
Georgian
institutions.
To
reduce
the
negative
image
of
Russia
in
Georgia,
Kremlin
creates
alternative
“enemies”
for
Georgian
society
using
existing
historical
and/or
territorial
tensions
between
Georgia
and
it’s
partners.
Usually
Turkey
and
Azerbaijan
become
objects
of
pro-­‐Kremlin’s
propaganda,
disinformation
and
other
hybrid
activities,
heated
up
by
the
pro-­‐Kremlin
media,
politicians
both
in
Georgia
and
Russia
as
well
as
other
regional
countries.
Exactly
the
same
tendencies
were
identified
in
period
of
2012
elections
when
Georgian
society
made
the
most
important
choice
since
2003
(explained
below).
The
same
happens
now,
when
Georgia
is
getting
ready
for
the
most
important
parliamentary
elections
after
2012,
when
composition
of
government
might
be
changed.
Starting
March
2019,
Kremlin
launched
it’s
campaign
in
Georgia:
pro-­‐
Kremlin
forces
inside
and
outside
of
the
country
became
proactive
in
reducing
negative
image
of
Russian
government
and
creating
alternative
agenda
for
Georgian
and
regional
societies.
Considering
the
possibility
of
a
“0”
barrier
during
elections
2020,
chaos
in
ruling
party,
disagreements
between
opposition
leaders,
and
other
political
reasons,
Kremlin
has
a
real
chance
to
get
influential
force
in
Georgian
parliament
that
will
cause
a
real
damage
to
Georgian
institutions
and
security.
“David
Gareja”
between
Georgia,
Azerbaijan
and
the
Kremlin.
Issue
of
the
famous
Monastery
complex
“David
Gareja”,
located
right
on
the
border
between
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan,
rises
before
every
important
elections.
This
is
the
only
part
of
the
border
where
the
delimitation
was
not
made
after
Soviet
Union
dissolution.
Both
sides
–
Baku
and
Tbilisi
–
do
their
best
to
keep
this
topic
“on
hold”
not
to
raise
any
kind
of
tensions
between
strategic
partners.
Considering
that
the
“David
Gareja”
issue
is
connected
with
the
most
sensitive
topics
(religion
and
territorial
integrity),
both
for
Georgians
and
Azerbaijanis
–
Kremlin
just
needs
to
activate
it’s
actors
inside
of
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan
to
push
the
trigger
and
bring
this
issue
back
on
the
table
developing
“discussions
between
two
partners”
into
the
confrontation
between
governments
and
nations.

2.
In
the
past
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan
effectively
prevented
any
kind
of
conflict.
Long-­‐term
friendship
between
president
Aliyev
and
former
president
Saakashvili,
the
highest
level
of
bilateral
cooperation
as
well
as
total
marginalization
of
any
pro-­‐
Kremlin
forces
inside
of
Georgia
did
not
let
Kremlin
go
further
in
heating
up
“David
Gareja”
issue.
The
attempt
was
made
in
May
2012.
Six
months
before
elections
when
ruling
regime
was
changed.
The
second
attempt
takes
place
now
starting
April
2019:
when
bilateral
relations
between
two
countries
are
based
on
the
earlier
established
projects;
the
contacts
between
governments
are
not
based
on
any
kind
of
friendship
or
desire
but
only
the
need
to
continue
working
together.
In
parallel,
pro-­‐Kremlin
forces
got
significantly
stronger
during
the
last
5-­‐6
years.
For
example,
who
could
imagine
pro-­‐Kremlin
/
anti-­‐democratic
and
anti-­‐western
deputy
head
of
the
Georgian
parliament?!
Who
could
imagine
anti-­‐democratic
organizations
protesting
in
the
center
of
Tbilisi
with
pro-­‐Kremlin
nationalistic
messages?
Who
could
imagine
that
dependence
of
Georgian
economy
on
Russia
will
become
as
high
as
it
is
now
in
regard
with
tourism,
growth
of
Russian
business
or
land-­‐ownership.
And
for
sure
no
one
could
imagine
Russia
State
Duma
representative
Gavrilov
or
any
other
Russian
State
representatives
traveling
to
Georgia
with
official
visits
when
20%
of
the
country
is
under
creeping
occupation,
Georgian
people
are
still
dying
on
the
so-­‐called
borders
and
when
the
Kremlin
is
using
all
it’s
tools
to
interfere
into
Georgian
politics
and
make
the
country
change
it’s
Euro-­‐Atlantic
choice.
As
a
result,
tensions
between
Azerbaijan
and
Georgia
were
heated
up
by
all
major
pro-­‐Kremlin
actors
from
both
sides,
decreasing
the
level
of
bilateral
relations,
creating
tensions
between
Georgians
and
Azerbaijanis
inside
of
Georgia
and
nations
in
general.
Now
we
observe
the
first
“success”
of
the
Kremlin.
Only
effective
and
transparent
actions
from
Tbilisi
and
Baku
can
stop
the
interference
of
the
third
party
and
prevent
two
friendly
nations
from
a
new
wave
of
the
artificially
triggered
conflict.
Of
course,
the
Kremlin
is
interested
in
changing
the
Agenda
in
Georgia
in
regard
with
elections
2020.
But
in
parallel,
their
second
goal
is
to
spoil
long-­‐term
relations
between
two
countries,
enlarge
it’s
influence
in
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan
in
energy
sphere,
decrease
Azerbaijani
gas
sales
to
Georgia
and
offer
Russian
gas
instead.
“Turkish
expansion”.
Considering
that
the
Georgia-­‐Turkey
“factor”
is
much
more
transparent
than
“David
Gareja”
issue
and
it
is
not
easy
to
manipulate
Georgian
society
with
this
topic,
Kremlin
uses
all
the
major
Russian
media
outlets
and
well-­‐known
Russian
politicians
as
a
leading
force
to
“remind”
Georgians
about
the
“expansion”
of
Turkey
in
Georgian
Ajara
region.
The
only
problem
is
that
such
“expansion”
does
not
exist
in
reality,
so
Kremlin
can
do
nothing
but
create
myths
to
activate
this
topic.

3. Pro-­‐Kremlin
forces
in
Georgia
are
used
in
this
case
as
local
“supporters”
of
the
propaganda
narratives
in
headlines.
Goal
is
clear
–
to
change
the
agenda
in
Georgia
and
redirect
it
from
“Putin’s
Russia
is
occupying
Georgian
territories”
or
“Putin
is
aggressor
and
the
enemy”
to
Azerbaijan
is
the
“occupier”,
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan
“are
not
partners
or
friends”,
and
real
problem
in
Georgia
is
not
annexation
by
the
Kremlin
but
so-­‐called
Turkish
“expansion”.
From
Baku
and
Ankara
to
Gavrilov
and
back.
Both
of
these
topics
became
the
subject
of
the
Kremlin’s
hybrid
war
in
pre-­‐election
campaign
in
Georgia
this
year.
Funds
were
spent,
actors
were
activated.
The
mistake
was
to
underestimate
the
reaction
of
Georgian
society
on
the
visit
of
Russian
Duma
member
Gavrilov.
This
visit
and
further
reaction
destroyed
all
the
efforts
Kremlin
initiated
earlier
this
year;
this
made
Russian
government
and
pro-­‐
Kremlin
actors
start
its
campaign
in
Georgia
from
the
very
beginning.
But
with
the
same
messages
and
tools.
MARCH
2019.
«RUSSIA-­‐GEORGIA
PUBLIC
CENTER»
IN
TBILISI
(«GORCHAKOV
FUND»,
RUSSIA)
Arranges
conference:
“Georgia
between
Russia
and
Turkey”.
Pro-­‐Kremlin
actors
took
part.
1.
DIRECTOR
OF
THE
CENTER:
DIMITRY
LORTKIPANIDZE
2.
LECTURER:
SIMON
KILADZE
PURSUED
FOR
ESPIONAGE
IN
2006.
*DEFENDER
OF
KILADZE
IN
2012
–
NIKOLOZ
MJAVANADZE
Director
of
the
Russia-­‐Georgia
Center
Mr.
Lortkipanidze
spreads
pro-­‐Kremlin
narratives
on
regular
basis.
He
took
part
as
an
active
actor
in
several
campaigns
targeted
to
create
alternative
“enemies”
for
Georgia.
Before
elections
2012
he
supported
anti-­‐Turkey
campaign
initiated
from
Moscow
stating
that:
“AJARA
REPUBLIC
BECAME
AN
ARENA
OF
THE
EXPANSION
OF
TURKEY”
(May,
2012).
Conference
conducted
in
his
center
in
March
2019
has
launched
the
Kremlin’s
campaign
in
Georgia.

4. May
2019.
On
7th
of
May
protest
activities
targeted
to
“defend”
monastery
“David
Gareja”
were
initiated
by
the
so-­‐called
“Union
of
Human
Rights
Defenders”
led
by
above-­‐
mentioned
Nikoloz
Mzhavanadze
who
defended
“Turkey
expansion”
lecturer
Simon
Kiladze.
The
second
organizer
was
“Democratic
National
Institute”
(not
the
“NDI”)
–
organization
connected
with
well-­‐known
pro-­‐kremlin
politician
Kakha
Kukava.
Pro-­‐Kremlin
protest
on
“David
Gareja”
issue.
May
the
7th.
Main
pro-­‐Kremlin
actors
in
Georgia
both
on
“David
Gareja”
issue
as
well
as
Turkish
“expansion”(from
the
left
to
the
right):
1.
IRMA
INASHVILI
–
LEADER
OF
THE
ANTI-­‐WESTERN
NATIONALISTIC
PARTY
“ALLIANCE
OF
PATRIOTS”.
2.
NIKOLOZ
MZHAVANADZE
–
DEFENDER
OF
THE
“RUSSIA-­‐GEORGIA”
LECTURER
(ON
TURKEY)
MR.
KILADZE;
LEADER
OF
THE
“UNION
OF
HUMAN
RIGHTS
DEFENDERS”;
3.
GIA
KORKOTASHVILI
–
ONE
OF
THE
LEADERS
OF
THE
ANTI-­‐WESTERN
NATIONALISTIC
“GEORGIAN
MARCH”
ORGANIZATION.
4.
KAKHA
KUKAVA
–
LEADER
OF
THE
PRO-­‐KREMLIN
PARTY;

5. As
we
see,
all
above-­‐mentioned
political
actors
are
connected
with
each
other,
uniting
the
efforts
to
raise
tensions
between
Georgia
and
its
partners,
change
the
focus
of
Georgian
society
and
as
a
result
undermine
the
sovereignty
of
Georgia.