This document discusses opportunities for Oregon to continue progress on climate issues. It notes that Oregon has good climate planning processes in place but that more needs to be done. Specifically, it calls for more accurate accounting of greenhouse gas emissions that incorporates a 20-year time horizon for methane and accounts for upstream methane leaks from natural gas infrastructure. It also advocates for increased focus on energy conservation, demand reduction, and addressing the near-term threats of methane releases. The document argues that climate change requires urgent action based on current scientific understanding and that decisions must be made even without complete data due to the increasing risks of delay.

1. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
How we propose to become HD-46 volunteer climate
science advisers
• Inform with perspectives and significant new data.
http://nw-climate-methane-task-force.org/doku.php

2. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Opportunities to Continue Progress on Climate
Oregon has good planning in place
• Environmental Quality Commission, DEQ
• Global Warming Commission
• Public Utilities Commission
Processes in place to conduct Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Has a strong climate community
Recognizes need to transition from Coal to Clean energy
Green energy base is growing
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3. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Opportunities to Continue Progress on Climate
What we think must happen
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Issues:
West Coast Oysters gone in 2019
Oregon forests emitting, not sinking Carbon
CA forest die-off 66M trees since 2010
• Pine beetle, high temps, drought
Extensive forest die-off in Oregon

4. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Opportunities to Continue Progress on Climate
• Alignment of activists and policymakers with science is
critical
• We see a need for more accurate GHG accounting
• Attention to energy conservation and demand side
reductions as near-term climate solutions
• Focus on near term threat of methane releases
Climate damage is not like other problems
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Agenda

5. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Opportunities to Continue Progress on Climate
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Organization

6. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Science is the Same for Activists, Legislators and Policy
Ideology plays no part in science or engineering
DEQ trying to tell OGWC where we are headed
Science should tell us … why there is no measurable
effect seen in data from decades of policymaking
• Engineering can build on facts to explain and refine
numbers and disclose risks (from knowns and
unknowns)
• Legislators and staff benefit from analysis when
independently verifiable
Activists are generally not numbers-driven
• Jordan Cove is an outstanding exception
Will benefit from climate science and analysis
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7. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Oregon's GHG Accounting
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HB 3543 Establishes Global
Warming Commission (June 2007)
“By 2010, arrest the growth of
Oregon′s greenhouse gas emissions”

8. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Oregon's GHG Accounting
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9. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
More Accurate GHG Accounting
Oregon accounts for GHG using outdated standards
• As concern over a near-term climate tipping point has
increased in recent years, researchers have shifted from
the 100 year time horizon to a 20 year time horizon which
captures the greater near term threat from methane. Over
a 20 year time frame methane is 84 times as potent as CO2
(GWP20=84).
• Oregon’s GHG Inventory is reported with GWP = 28
Emissions below 2,500 m tons CO2e are dismissed,
without stipulating how CO2e is to be computed
http://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/climate/naturalGas.htm
• Emissions estimates are accepted in lieu of actual
measurements. Ref. DEQ Division 215 Rules
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10. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
More Accurate GHG Accounting
Oregon PUC Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal Rate
Impact Report 2016 completely omits gas delivery
infrastructure and its GHG leakage.
http://oregonpuc.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&
Oregon GHG Inventory omits reporting by utilities of
life cycle GHG emissions prior to delivery. Commodity
delivery services do not measure their leaks or
releases.
http://www.keeporegoncool.org/sites/default/files/ogwc-st
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11. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
More Accurate GHG Accounting
Externalities in natural gas infrastructure are just as
significant as coal.
• SB 1547B limits carbon-by-wire from Montana coal
• Methane releases prior to natural gas delivery are
pervasive in the supply chain
• Researchers report range from 1% to 12% of delivered
commodity (average 5%)
• Natural Gas could be phased out similar to coal-by-wire,
just extend SB 1547B rule making
In the meantime rule making must require reports on
upstream methane releases (i.e. with commodity invoice)
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12. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Energy Conservation and Demand Side Reductions
New residential and commercial buildings can achieve zero
net energy use.
• Relying on efficient insulation, heat pumps, and power
from onsite renewable energy generation
Affordable technologies allow utilities to source
renewable energy
• CA has directed deployment of utility-scale grid energy
storage
• PGE planning reported to OPUC includes renewable
energy sourcing for 3 of 4 near term options
Natural gas, 4th option, increases fossil demand for … 30 years
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13. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Near Term Threats Posed by Methane Releases
Although CH4 half life is 12 years, dissipated CH4 is
being replenished such that measured concentrations are
increasing.
Claims of methane leak reduction are not correlated in
satellite data.
When CH4 influence is factored into budget, CO2e
margins disappear by surprise.
Except for utility and industrial supply infrastructure
leaks, most CH4 releases are not controllable.
No one knows when historical tripping points will recur.
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14. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Damage is Not Like Other Problems
Easily denied since it carries political baggage while for
decades it was merely inferred from slowly emerging data.
Decisions must be made without fully agreed, fully complete
data, fully processed data
• During research and analysis, the message keeps getting
worse and worse.
• Delays in intercepting root causes can be discovered
irreversible after the fact.
No one has ever threatened to terminate economic, medical,
military, or pharmaceutical research efforts due to
undesirable deniable results.
• With climate damage, this would demand immediate action
based on current knowledge.
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15. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
While working for more data, better conclusions, better
understanding on a broader scale, populations incurring
displacement and suffering have no part in root causation.
As the scale and depth of crises continues to grow, it
invites uninitiated deniers to mandate solutions with less
supporting data than what climate science has amassed to
date.
• We have seen no other problem with such uncertainty,
such a clear trend line, and with possible lifeform
extinctions if mishandled.
• Setting aside ideology is a moral obligation for anyone
capable of grasping the issues.
Nature bats last.
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Climate Damage is Not Like Other Problems

16. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Damage is Not Like Other Problems
Therefore we need to pick 1.5 degree target:
1) OGWC needs staffing to drive achieving target
2) Oregon needs cost of carbon as hammer/enabler

If we miss 2-yr target, adjust cost of carbon

Money supports Env. Justice as well as transition
3) PUC needs instruction to enable

Life-cycle accounting on fossil fuels

Business planning must assume fossil fuel plants out of
service by 2035 – i.e. become stranded assets
4) Oregon won't support “growing the problem” with fossil
fuel exports
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17. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Damage is Not Like Other Problems
Clarity of solution schedule has come slowly.
History of denial has slowed understanding.
Must work with available info in spite of fog. So:

Decisions must be made without fully agreed, fully complete
data, fully processed data

During research and analysis, the message keeps getting
worse and worse, increasing urgency.

Delays in intercepting root causes could throw us over
tipping points.
We make progress in the face of uncertainty in economic,
medical, military, or pharmaceutical research efforts in
order to avoid undesirable deniable results, and must do so
for climate.
• With climate damage, this demands immediate action
based on current knowledge.
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18. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Science Appendices
Ap – GWP20 How does time affect Methane
Ap – Carbon Budget Calculating the latest deadline
Ap – Carty and Oregon Why it is essential these
generators be green
Ap – Climate History of CH4
Methane appears to have played a critical role with
previous shifts in earth’s climate
Ap – The Back Story for CH4 How we got to the
cliff without noticing
Ap – Math Plots
Methane vs. CO2: Time patterns of heating
Ap – Closing Pitch What we must have from Oregon
Legislature, etc., this year
For Further Information See Appendices