Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Deciphering the Philadelphia Housing Market
PETER ANGELIDES FEBRUARY 23, 2017

Overview
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.
• ESI’s Technical Applications
• Cross Industrial City Trends
Demand:
Millennials
Public Schools
Job Growth
Changing Commuting Patterns
Supply:
Construction Database
• Housing Market Trends & Tools
Philadelphia Housing Index
Condo Insight

ESI’s Technical Applications
Economic & Fiscal
Impact Analyses
Market Studies Hardship Studies
Valuations
(not appraisals)
Tax Appeal Cases Litigation Support

Selected Clients

Demand:
Philadelphia’s Millennials
● 20% of the region’s
population
● 26% of the city’s
population
● 46% of the Core Center
City population
● 40% of the population
of Greater Center City
Philadelphia Metro Area Age Distribution
2017 Housing Report: building on Optimism
Center City District & Central Development Corporation, Feb 22, 2017

Demand:
Philadelphia’s Millennials
“It’s true that homeownership
among this age group has
traditionally been lower than in
previous generations. But that
may be more a function of
delayed purchases due to
millennials’ new financial
reality: historically high student
debt, recession, rising real
estate costs, a challenging and
stratified job market.”
Millennials Look to the Suburbs, Not Cities, for First Homes
Curbed, June 21, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau, ACS, 2009 and 2014, 1-Year estimates
Median Household Income, 2009-14

Demand:
Future of Philadelphia's Millennials
“Will they stay
enchanted with
Philly, looking
past the tepid
business
environment and
still-struggling
school system?”
Has Philly Reached Peak Millennial?
It’s Going to Be Hard to Find Out
BillyPenn, Feb 21, 2017
Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll, The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2016
Percentage of 18- to 34-Year Olds Likely to Be Living
in Philadelphia in 5 to 10 Years

Demand: Public Schools
“Thanks to its academic success, Penn Alexander quickly became a destination school for
the type of middle-class families who once sidestepped the city’s troubled public schools
or moved to the suburbs. The school’s popularity triggered a real estate boom in the
West Philadelphia catchment area it serves.” Penn Alexander in Philadelphia Wins Major National Education Award,
Newsworks, Sept. 28, 2016 Curbed, June 21, 2016

Demand: Enrollment Trends
“After years of decline, K-
12 enrollment has
stabilized in the past three
years in schools run by the
School District of
Philadelphia and by the
Archdiocese of
Philadelphia. Enrollment in
public charter schools has
nearly doubled since the
school year that ended in
2010.”
Philadelphia: The State of the City, A 2016 Update,
The Pew Charitable Trusts, March, 2016

Demand: Job Growth
“Neighborhoods are a
source of vibrant
economic growth, and
local civic leaders and
residents are
passionate and
informed...”
Roadmap for Growth: A Shared Agenda for the City to
Promote Economic Growth and Job Creation, Dec 8, 2015

Demand: Job Growth
Philadelphia: An Incomplete Revival,Center City District, Jan, 2017
Total Wage and Salary Employment, 1970-2016

Demand:
Changing Commuting Patterns

Demand: SEPTA Ridership
Growth Between 1998-2016

Supply: Construction Database
Current Projects Under
Construction in Center City

Supply: Construction Related
The average number of days between zoning and building permit issuance between January
2011 and January 2015 went from 204 to 172 days.

Supply: Construction Related
Center City Housing Construction Meeting Demand, But Challenges Loom,
Plan Philly, Feb 23, 2017
Greater Center City Housing Completions, 200-15

Supply: Rental Rates
Source: departmentofnumbers.com
Real Gross Rent in Philadelphia (2104 Dollars)

Housing Market Trends Across
Philadelphia’s Neighborhoods

• Aggregates every deed transfer in
Philadelphia.
• Adjust sales prices for age, lot size, square
footage, garage, central air, exterior, and tax
exemption, seasonality.
• Statistical smoothing over
time, within neighborhoods.
Housing Market Trends & Tools:

• Assessment Data
• Transaction Data
• Aggregate to numerous boundaries: Districts,
Neighborhoods, School Boundaries.
#PHLhousingindex

Philadelphia Housing Index,
Growth Since January 2001

River Wards

2016 - Q4

Change 2001 Q1 - 2016 Q4

Housing Market Trends & Tools:
Condo Insight
• Tracks condominium sales across Philadelphia and the
surrounding counties.
• Provides buyers, sellers, developers, real estate brokers, banks,
condo associations detailed, customized and unbiased
information
• Provide consulting and forecasting services
CONDO Insight

Condo Insight
• Ranking
• Comparison and forecast
• Condo valuation
• Market overview
CONDO Insight

Condo Insight
CONDO Insight

CONDO Insight
Questions? Comments? Other feedback?
Please feel free to reach out to me directly at:
Flynn@econsultsolutions.com
Condo Insight

Questions?
Peter Angelides, Ph.D., AICP
Econsult solutions, Inc.
215.717.2777
angelides@econsultsolutions.com
Thank You
● econsultsolutions.com
● econsultsolutions.com/philadelphia-housing-index
● condoinsight.com

Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

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Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation