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author:
Ruslan MINICH
Lviv Region (Ukraine) – Poland:
MOBILE BORDER
IN BETWEEN
Dołhobyczów – Uhryniv
Hrebenne–Rava-Rus’ka
Budomierz – Hrushiv
Korczowa – Krakivets
Medyka – Shehyni
lviv
Zhovkva
Chervonograd
Sokal’
Zamosc
Tomaszow
Lubelski
Sambir
Staryi
Sambir
Mostys’ka
Yavoriv
Krościenko – Smilnytsia
Author:
Ruslan Minich,
Europe without Barriers
The material was prepared with the support
oftheInternationalRenaissanceFoundation
within the framework of the Build­ing Safe
and Humane Borders Through the Public
Assessment of the Polish-Ukrainian Border
project. The material reflects the position of
the authors and does not necessarily coin-
cide with the position of the International
Renaissance Foundation.
The big data for the analysis were provided
by Kyivstar.
Project team:
Iryna Sushko,
Ruslan Minich,
Pavlo Kravchuk,
Europe without Barriers
The International Renaissance Foundation
is one of the largest charitable foundations
in Ukraine. Since 1990 we have been help-
ing to develop an open society in Ukraine
based on democratic values. The Founda-
tion has supported about 20,000 projects
worth more than $200 million. The IRF is
part of the Open Society Foundations net-
worke stablished by investor and philan-
thropist George Soros.
Site:
www.irf.ua
Facebook:
www.fb.com/irf.ukraine
Design:
Viktoriia Fedyna
01
PART 1.
BIG DATA AND BORDER
SIX BORDER POSTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND POLAND
WHY BIG DATA?	
WHAT MOBILE DATA CAN (NOT) TELL US
CAN WE TRUST THE DATA?
SO, WHAT DID WE DO WITH DATA?
NO, WE CANNOT TRACK PEOPLE
Part 2.
WHO CROSSES THE BORDER AND WHERE THEY GO
LOCALS ARE MAIN CLIENTS
POLISH TOURISTS LIKE TO VISIT UKRAINIAN BORDERLAND
PART 3.
CLOSER LOOK AT BORDER POSTS
LOCAL RESIDENTS CONSUME DIFFERENTLY
DESTINATION COUNTRY MATTERS SOMETIMES
SHEHYNI IS THE BUSIEST BORDER POST
HRUSHIV IS AN OPTION INSTEAD OF KRAKIVETS DESPITE RUINED ROADS
FOREIGNERS LIKE KRAKIVETS FOR ENTRY BUT LESS FOR EXIT
(NO LONGER) CROSSING ON FOOT IN UHRYNIV
SMILNYTSIA-KROŚCIENKO BUSTLES WITH FOREIGNERS
LOCAL RESIDENTS:WHO CROSSES ANDWHERE AND DOTHEY NEED NEW BORDER POSTS?
POLISH MONEY
PART 4.
KEY POINTS AND POLICY IDEAS
FIGURES
02
03
05
07
07
10
10
11
12
16
20
21
23
23
31
31
32
33
34
35
41
44
author:
Ruslan MINICH
Lviv Region (Ukraine) – Poland:
MOBILE BORDER
IN BETWEEN
/
PART
1.
BIG DATA
AND
BORDER
03
The border between Ukraine and Poland is the busiest one for both countries (see Figure 1.
Crossing Ukrainian-Polish border). People crossed it over 10 million times just in the first half
of 2019 and over 21 million times - in 2018.1
Data sources: Polish State Guard, The Border Guard Service of Ukraine
1
Polish Border Guard, statistics, January - June 2019, http://bit.do/ffi6N
Figure 1. CROSSING UKRAINIAN-POLISH BORDER
The border between Ukraine and Poland is the busiest one for both countries.
2018, million
SIX BORDER POSTS BETWEEN UKRAINE
AND POLAND
POLAND
UKRAINE
Russia
Belarus
Moldova
Slovakia
Hungary
Romania
sea
sea
Temporarily
occupied
Crimea
plane
16.7 18
12
UKRAINE,
border section with
POLAND,
border section with
13.6
11
7.68.96
3.9
2.5
0.35
3.5
8.5
2.7
0.2
21.6
Contact
line
in Donbas
04
In the previous study called Living Near
the Border: The Cases of Shehyni and Uhryniv
Communities,2 we largely analysed two lo-
cal communities in Shehyni and Uhryniv
who live near the borderline. The entire
border section was considered too where
possible and appropriate as well as where
the data were available. At the same time,
the primary focus was on these two com-
munities. We interviewed (1) local and re-
gional officials, customs, border guards; (2)
influencers from civil society, business, me-
dia, and academia; and (3) people living at
the border. Locals are the main clients and
consumers experiencing border presence
every day. They are also the stakeholders
who have a profound impact on the border.
We could not but need to consider them in
Figure 2. WHICH BORDER POSTS AND WHY
Cars are the most popular way to enter Poland for Ukrainians. And Lviv region hosts six out
of the eight such crossing points between Ukraine and Poland.
Data source: The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
order to unveil deep roots of the challenges
the borderland is facing as well as the op-
portunities and potential it contains.
Here we aim at extending the study to all
border posts in Lviv region where you can
cross by car. Cars are the most popular way
to enter Poland for Ukrainians.3 And Lviv re-
gion hosts six out of the eight such crossing
points between Ukraine and Poland (see
Figure 2. Which border posts and why).
THEY ARE:
• Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów,
• Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne,
• Hrushiv-Budomierz,
• Krakivets-Korczowa,
• Shehyni-Medyka, and
• Smilnytsia-Krościenko.
2
Minich, Ruslan.“Living Near the Border: The Cases of Shehyni and Uhryniv Communities,”Kyiv, 2019, http://bit.do/ffjyV
3
At the same time, there is only one pedestrian border post with Poland while trains largely connect distant Ukrainian cities with Poland but Lviv.
Volodymyr-Volynskyi
Krakivets
Shehyni
Medyka
Przemyśl
Korczowa
Budomierz
Khyriv
SmilnytsiaKrościenko
Mostyska
Lviv
Ustyluh
Hrushiv
Uhryniv
Yahodyn
Dorohusk
Rava-Rus’ka
Hrebenne
Werchrata
Dołhobyczów
Hrubieszów
Zosin
LVIV
REGION
VOLYN
REGION
LUBLIN
WOJEWÓDZTWO
ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE
WOJEWÓDZTWO
TERNOPIL
REGION
05
The primary source of data is the State
Border Guard Service of Ukraine. They track
virtually everyone who comes into the
country or leaves it. We have this aggregat-
ed data in response to the official request
and use them in this research.
Its capacity is, nonetheless, limited. We
can see when Ukrainians and foreigners
travel, which border posts they select,
and whether they head towards Ukraine
or leave the country. But the data cannot
tell who travels, where they are from, and
where exactly they go (see Figure 3. Why
mobile data). Consider an example, we
can see the volume of local border traf-
fic in the Polish border guards’ reports.4
4
Border Guard of Poland, statistics, https://www.strazgraniczna.pl/pl/granica/statystyki-sg/2206,Statystyki-SG.html
However, locals living within 30-50 km
from the border line can cross it without
visa since 2017 due to the visa-free re-
gime with the EU. Therefore, it is worth to
look at people living within this area, how
often they cross the border, instead of
considering permits of local border traf-
fic counted by border guards. And tele-
com data allow us to do just that. More-
over, we can discover where borderland
infrastructure meet travellers’ need and
where it could do better. We look at who
travels, where s/he is from and where s/
he heads for, why they select this border
post or this route and not the other one
to do that.
WHY BIG DATA?
This allows us to see a bigger picture. As a result, we come up with policy ideas
how borderland infrastructure could better meet travellers’needs.
Shehyni-Medyka
Krakivets-Korczowa
Yahodyn-Dorohusk
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
Ustyluh-Zosin
Hrushiv-Budomierz
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
Lviv
Mostyska-Przemyśl
Yahodyn-Dorohusk
Volodymyr-Volynskyi-Hrubieszów
Rava-Rus’ka-Werchrata
Khyriv-Krościenko
6.02
4.06
3.33
3.10
1.96
1.82
1.37
1.32
0.56
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.003
0
million
06 5
Kyivstar, web-page, https://kyivstar.ua/en/about/about/kyivstar_today
6
Population of Ukraine, State Statistics Service of Ukraine, http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
Therefore, we resort to big data and, par-
ticularly, to Kyivstar. It is one of the biggest
mobile operators in Ukraine with about
26 million users5 while the population of
Ukraine is about 41-42 million, according to
Ukrainian statistics service.6 In September
2019, Kyivstar pulled out data about peo-
ple who were at 6 road border posts in Lviv
region during 13 months from July 2018
to July 2019.This time frame allows to take
into account and analyse seasonal fluctua-
tions of people. For instance, more foreign
tourists visit Ukraine in summer. Also, local
residents go for seasonal work to Poland.
Kyivstar extracted information about
over 14 million border crossings. The
share of foreigners is much smaller, almost
300 thousand, which reflects the reality on
the ground (similar disproportion is pres-
ent in the data of the State Border Guard
Service of Ukraine). The sample size re-
mains big, though, significantly contract-
ing confidence interval estimations. We
consider crossings instead of people since
the idea is to evaluate the pressure on the
border posts, its reasons and ramifications.
Figure 3.
WHY MOBILE
DATA
BORDER GUARDS’DATA
Time
Entry/Exit
Ukrainian or foreigner
CALENDAR
VALUE-ADDED OF KYIVSTAR
Destination
(country; region/district if Ukraine)
Origin
(country; region/district if Ukraine)
Age, sex, income if Ukrainian
07
A user is seen by a Kyivstar’s base station
covering the crossing point if s/he makes
some action here like a phone call, texting,
or surfing the Internet and/or social media.
Then we look at where this user was before
and after coming at the border post. We
can see which region s/he is coming from
and where s/he heads to, gender, age, and
income.
It is easier to see a Ukrainian user abroad
since s/he should not make any action to
be discovered. It is enough to switch on
your smartphone, and you receive the
greeting SMS and text messages with the
home country embassy contacts and roam-
ing tariffs.
For this reason, it is easy to overestimate
the volume of exits and underestimate re-
turns to Ukraine. The picture can be further
distorted due to the fact that many people
- so-called ‘shuttle traders’, i.e., locals who
hop the border to sell cigarettes or alcohol
in Poland, stock up there, and then sell food
products back in Ukraine, - are considered
by Kyivstar only while leaving Ukraine.
They are a big share of travellers.
At the same time, there are cases when
we know where a person was before com-
The first safeguard is to see whether the
mobile operator’s coverage in regions
does not distort the real picture. Let’s say
we see a skew to a significantly bigger
number of travellers from Lviv region than
from any other one. Is that because peo-
ple living here more willingly cross the
Ukrainian-Polish land border, which does
make sense since they are the closest to the
six border posts? Or do we see this just be-
cause Kyivstar may feast on its popularity
in the region and this does not reflect the
reality?
Figure 4. Regional differences in data:
Are they real? confirms our expectations.
There are groups of regions with roughly
similar Kyivstar popularity, however, with
ing to the border post. But then this person
disappears without a trace from our sight.
Contrary situations are not uncommon too.
Or even a person may appear at the cross-
ing point without a trace 24 hours before
and 24 hours after. Many people have a
few SIM cards and may change them, or
they may switch the phone off. This is how
they may disappear. In any case, it is hard to
classify these people as entering or leaving
Ukraine.
Taking into account these concerns, we
had to renounce the idea of comparing
entries and exits to gauge emigration vol-
umes to Poland. The official data from bor-
der guards service gives number of about
214,000 people who have not returned
from July 2018 to July 2019 via six border
posts under consideration. However, we
cannot exclude a possibility that they re-
turned via other crossing points. Also, we
consider only a sample of people from Ky-
ivstar’s database for some purposes. For in-
stance, we look only at people who, we are
sure, left the country to define the popular
country destinations.The number of obser-
vations remains, nonetheless, significant
accounting for millions of crossings.
WHAT MOBILE DATA CAN(NOT) TELL US
CAN WE TRUST THE DATA?
discernible difference in the number of
Ukrainians who opt for our six border
posts. So the popularity of Kyivstar in the
regions does not tamper with our data.
And we can trust the regional differences
of travellers. This conclusion is confirmed
by weak association between these two
variables, Kyivstar’s regional coverage
and regional share of Ukrainian travellers
(Pearson’s correlation coefficient r is 0.39).
In addition, it is not statistically significant,
i.e., this association can be observed just
because of a random chance (2-tailed test,
alpha = 0.06). The information on the Ky-
ivstar coverage of foreign citizens is unfor-
tunately absent. So we cannot apply the
same method.
08
REGIONS
We compare telecom data with offi-
cial border guards statistics to further
check whether it reflects the reality. They
have a bigger database though with less
information about travellers (see Why Big
Data section). They check all entries and
exits and have no problems with catching
signals, phones in off-mode, or switching
SIM cards. So we compare monthly data
on each border post selected. Here we
can look at both Ukrainians and foreign-
ers. The size and relative proportions of
those who were at these crossing points
are largely similar conforming quality of
our data (see Figure 5. Telecom data re-
flects reality, we have the grounds to think
to) since the dots are not scattered around
the plot and approximate a straight line.
This conclusion is supported by strong as-
sociation between two datasets for Ukrai-
nians (Pearson’s r is 0.81) and the moder-
ate one for foreigners (Pearson’s r is 0.55).
Both of them are statistically significant
(alpha is .000, 2-tailed test).
So we can trust our telecom data. The
next question is what to do with this pool.
Figure 4. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN DATA: ARE THEY REAL?
Kyivstar regional coverage does not affect the regional data on the share of Ukrainians
opted for our six border posts.
Pearson’s r=.338 Sig. (2-tailed)=.061
20
30
25
35
40
15
10
5
-5
0
RegionalshareofUkrainiantravellers
Kyivstar regional coverage
20 40 60 800
09
Figure 5. TELECOM DATA REFLECTS REALITY, WE HAVE THE GROUNDS TO THINK SO.
Kyivstar’s data is largely similar to border guards’ statistics on crossings in size and
proportions. So we can trust it.
UKRAINIANS
FOREIGNERS
200,000
300,000
250,000
350,000
400,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,0000
0
Kyivstar
Ukraine’s Border Guard Service
8,000
12,000
10,000
14,000
16,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,0000
0
Pearson’s r =.814 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000
Pearson’s r =.553 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000
Kyivstar
Ukraine’s Border Guard Service
10
The six border posts are the main focus
of the study. We count people who are
the main consumers, in particular, their
gender, age, income, places of departure
and destination. Therefore, our variables
are mainly nominal except age and in-
come. Their categories are not numerical
and cannot be ranked (e.g. male or female
for gender). For instance, Shehyni and
Uhryniv are different border posts but
neither category is more or less border
post than the other. For this reason, we
compare relative size of categories with
percentages and proportions.
The Cramer’s V is applied to measure
associations, how strong is the association
between two variables. For instance, we
apply it to see whether the region where
For each task in mind, we receive a separate table from Kyivstar. Every table contains
aggregated number of times people cross the border posts divided by age, gender, income,
region, and/or country. There are no names or phone numbers or any other personal infor-
mation.Therefore, we have no means to establish who exactly crosses the border respecting
and responding to possible privacy concerns.
SO,
WHAT DID WE DO WITH DATA?
the Ukrainian traveller is from influences
the choice of a particular crossing point
or whether the destination country affects
the choice of the border post.We select this
measure since it can be applied to nominal
variables.Also,wecomparesixborderposts
with 24 regions and 50 km-borderland and
with destination countries. Cramer’s V al-
lows us to do this since it has virtually no
limits on the number of categories.
We evaluate the statistical significance
of the Cramer’s V to see whether the ob-
tained association is consistent or just be-
cause of a random chance. Of course, it
measures just the strength of relationship,
and not causal relations. Therefore, Cram-
er’s V is used as an addition tool to support
our hypotheses.
NO,
WE CANNOT TRACK PEOPLE
/
Part
2.
WHO
CROSSES
THE BORDER
AND WHERE
THEY GO
Ukrainians are the main stakeholders and
users of our six border posts (see Figure 6.
Border clients). About nine out of ten cross-
ings are by Ukrainian citizens, as unveiled by
the Ukrainian border guards’ data. So let’s
look closer who they are.
12
The majority of people who go to Po-
land are 20-40 years old men. They largely
live within 50 kilometres from the border
line. They are not rich, in fact the oppo-
site – with low or middle income. Poland
is important for people living within the
50 km from the border. Locals usually visit
Figure 6. BORDER CLIENTS
Ukrainians living right next to the border are the main clients of its services. They are largely
middle-aged men with low and middle income and head towards Poland.
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
FOREINGNERS UKRAINIANS
LOCALS ARE MAIN CLIENTS
the neighbouring country for work, shop-
ping, or small-scale trade. “Unfortunately,
our people cannot visit Poland just for
sightseeing. There are many interesting
places, but they can’t. They mostly go for
livelihood. They need money,”grumbles a
local priest.
UKRAINIANS
LEAD
2,173,135 15,516,529
*
Note:
We consider crossings instead
of people to gauge who often
enjoy border services
13
POLICY IDEA
Data source: Kyivstar
The travellers are largely locals with low and middle income. They usually go to
Poland for work, shopping, or small-scale trading. Investments and infrastructure
improvement could boost regional development relieving their plight.
20-40 years old borderland
residents
50km zone
men
Lviv region
beyond
50km
income
low
other regionsincome
middle
78 % 53 %
77.5 %
20 %62 %
27 %30 %
PROFILE OF
UKRAINIAN
TRAVELLER
14
POLICY IDEA
Data source: Kyivstar
Border management of this section should be tailored to the needs of locals and
cater for them. They are the main stakeholders and consumers of its services.
Crimea
Luhansk
region
Donetsk
region
Zaporizhzhia
region
Kherson
region
Kharkiv
region
Sumy
region
Poltava
region
Kirovohrad
region
Odesa
region
Vinnytsia
region
Zhytomyr
region
Rivne
region
Lviv
region
beyond
50 km
Ivano-
Frankivsk
region
Khmel-
nytskyi
region
Ternopil
region
Chernivtsi
region
Zakarpattia
region
Volyn
region
beyond
50 km
Kyiv
region
Mykolaiv
region
Cherkasy
region
Dnipropetrovsk
region
Chernihiv
region
NA
3,067
43,026
163,604
22,013
44,07420,148
70,713
299,945
120,216
242,933
186,894
755,736
20,421
64,067
35,967
44,835
92,196
234,480
382,398
141,297
46,971
680,442
25,992
50 km zone
7,498,281
MAP
UKRAINE
2,786,921
15
Data source: Kyivstar
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
CROSSINGS, UKRAINIANS
SUMMER IS BUSY SEASON
WHERE
THEY GO
LIVINGWITHIN 50 KM
FROM BORDER
Poland
Czech Republic
Germany
Other countries
123,954 529,22820,101
77,436
159,096
1,644,826
Poland
Other countries
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
July
August
Septem-
ber
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
2018 2019
16
For these reasons, border manage-
ment of this section should be tailored
to the needs of local residents and pro-
vide benefits for them. They are thirsty
for investments, regional development,
and tourism. Outsiders often spurn their
lifestyle. “They sleep four hours in the
car going to Poland and then four hours
- back to Ukraine,” describes shuttle
traders an official in Lviv. Many of them
go for a few months to Poland to make
some lollies. But they cannot quit this
without alternatives. “This does not con-
tribute to economic development but is
rather a way to meet ends,” admits a
Poles are major foreign visitors crossing via the six border posts. Their destination is often
places closer to the border or a bit deeper into Lviv region in particular to Lviv itself (see
Figure 7. Poles are main visitors). “Our people often go to Poland for shopping while Poles’
sheer aim is tourism,”explains a local activist.
Figure 7. POLES ARE MAIN VISITORS
Ukrainian borderland is popular among Polish visitors. They often come here in summer.
POLES
ARE MAIN
VISITORS
Data source: Kyivstar
local school principal.
The Polish loan may be one of the rem-
edies. Poland agreed to finance the recon-
struction of three border posts and the re-
pairment of five road sections in 2015. This
could have boosted some local towns and
villages that are virtually cut off the rest of
the country and turned into flotsam and
jetsam. However, the works are stalled yet
(see Polish Money section).
Other infrastructure projects like filling
stations, parkings, shops would not only
make a journey more joyful but also could
create new jobs and generate additional in-
come to local budgets.
POLISH TOURISTS LIKE TO VISIT
UKRAINIAN BORDERLAND
66 %
POLISH
CITIZENS
POLICY IDEA
Since Ukrainian
borderland is popular
among Polish tour-
ists, it has a tourist
potential to develop.
17
Data source: Kyivstar
Data source: Kyivstar
WHERE FOREIGNERS
HANG OUT
POLES ARE MAIN
VISITORS
50 km zone
Lviv region beyond 50 km
other regions
Poland
other countries
101,92290,047 89,192171,544
70,477
Crimea
Luhansk
region
Donetsk
region
Zaporizhzhia
region
Kherson
region
Kharkiv
region
Sumy
region
Poltava
region
Kirovohrad
region
Odesa
region
Vinnytsia
region
Zhytomyr
region
Rivne
region
Lviv
region
beyond
50km
Ivano-
Frankivsk
region
Khmel-
nytskyi
region
Ternopil
region
Chernivtsi
region
Zakarpattia
region
Volyn
region
beyond
50 km
Kyiv
region
Mykolaiv
region
Cherkasy
region
Dnipropetrovsk
region
Chernihiv
region
NA
120
1,143
2,938
834
1,530775
1,451
7,738
3,454
6,676
4,069
15,708
428
1,374
1,045
1,342
3,038
4,601
8,078
8,025
3,579
22,562
1,414
50 km zone
89,192
70,477
18
CROSSINGS, FOREIGNERS
SUMMER IS BUSY SEASON
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
The ideas to lure more tourists is in the
air when you come to the borderland. Lo-
cals admit the popularity of cycling among
Polish citizens and, thus, the need to build
cycling pathways to border posts.
A possibility to walk through a border
post would serve this aim too. “Biking has
become a new vogue among Poles. They
like making bike tour across Ukraine. And
pedestrian lane is the only option to cross
the border with a bike,”says a Sokal official.
You can cross on foot only in Shehyni now.
At the same time, new pedestrian lanes at
other border posts should not become a
shuttle trading points for Ukrainian border-
POLICY IDEA
A possibility to cross on foot or by bike should attract more Polish tourists
who like biking.
land residents. Pothole-free roads linking
them to other regions should thwart a pos-
sible conservation and localisation (more
on this in (No Longer) Crossing On Foot In
Uhryniv section).
Another potential project is the one
within the Cross-border Cooperation
Programme Poland - Belarus - Ukraine
2014–2020 called Bug Unites Us - Creation
of Two Cross-Border Touristic Kayak Trails.7
It entails 800 km of kayak trails, properly
marked and filled with needed facilities.
Local authorities go further: they propose
to build infrastructure for water crossing
at Bug river.
7
“Bug Unites Us - Creation of Two Cross-Border Touristic Kayak Trails”, Cross-border Cooperation Programme Poland - Belarus - Ukraine 2014–2020, https://
www.pbu2020.eu/pl/projects2020/7
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
July
August
Septem-
ber
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
2018 2019
19
The regional signature is unique and untouched nature and ancient architecture with
hillforts. Sokal district authorities draft a tour route through some of them. The residents
also admit a potential of religious tours since here are many places sacred for Poles so they
organise pilgrimages.
Representatives of the Joint Technical Secretariat of the Cross-border Coopera-
tion (CBC) Programme Poland-Belarus-Ukraine participated in the kayaking on the
river Bug organized by the Bug Unites Us – Creation of Two Cross-Border Touristic Kay-
ak Trails project shortlisted during the first Call for Proposals, August 3, 2019.
Photo credits: PBU 14-20
/
Part
3.
CLOSER
LOOK AT
BORDER
POSTS
Our six border posts in focus are used by
Ukrainians and foreigners in different man-
ner. Here we look at peculiarities of each
crossing points.
21
Ukrainians from distant regions often
cross the border via big border posts such
as Shehyni-Medyka, Krakivets-Korczowa,
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne. They can drive here
on the international roads. The smaller
crossing points like Smilnytsia-Krościenko,
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, Hrushiv-Budom-
ierz are less crowded with them. They are
more popular among local residents liv-
ing within 50 km from the border along
with Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne. Even when
the roads are in poor condition, it is still
Figure 8. WHERE YOU’RE FROM IMPACTS WHERE YOU CROSS
The flow of local residents is more uniformly distributed among border posts when
compared with the people living farther away.
Data source: Kyivstar
LOCAL RESIDENTS CONSUME DIFFERENTLY
easier for locals to cross the border via the
entry-exit point in the same district than
moving to the neighbouring one (see Fig-
ure 11. Locals: Who crosses and where). As
a result, the flow of local residents is more
uniformly distributed among border posts
when compared with the people living
farther away. And this association is from
moderate to strong and statistically signif-
icant judging from the Cramer’s V of. 306.
(see Figure 8. Where you’re from impacts
where you cross)
LOCAL RESIDENTS
CONSUME DIFFERENTLY
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
388,334
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
1,555,258
Krakivets-Korczowa
1,245,601
Shehyni-Medyka
1,261,706
Hrushiv-Budomierz
741,389
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
2,305,993
Shehyni-Medyka
2,377,716
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
521,881
Krakivets-Korczowa
1,173,977
Hrushiv-Budomierz
662,818
Krakivets-Korczowa
1,630,410
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
161,554
0
50kmfromborderbeyond50km
Cramer’s V=.306 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000
POLICY IDEA
Better roads to smaller border posts could reveal them to the Ukrainians driving
from distant regions
22
Repairing roads to these smaller border
posts in part due to funds of the Polish loan
could offload some burden from the busiest
crossing points. More people living farther
from the border would opt for these posts.
This would reveal these small border
posts for the rest of the country. Other-
wise, they would continue to cater for only
Figure 9. WHAT BORDER POST YOU CROSS MAY DEPEND ON WHERE YOU GO IF YOU
ARE NOT A LOCAL
Locals usually go to Poland, so the country choice is far from the decisive in their border post
options. It can play a bigger role for people from more distant places. They tend to opt for
Krakivets and Shehyni when they travel to a country other than Poland.
local needs like shuttle trade that is large-
ly frowned upon by officials, activists, and
business people residing farther away from
the border.
We should also spare a thought for this
when building new border posts. Their
consumer base would be narrow without
an infrastructure leading to them.
Data source: Kyivstar Cramer’s V=.242 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000
0
100,000
200,000
50,000
25,000
300,000100,000
400,000
150,000
500,000
200,000 600,000
Other countries Poland
38,884
2.4%
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
6,501
1.8%
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
369,422
22.5%
Krakivets-Korczowa
125,952
34.9%
Shehyni-Medyka
245,674
14.9%
Hrushiv-Budomierz
21,602
6.0%
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
275,240
16.7%
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne25,567
7.1%
Hrushiv-Budomierz
100,662
6.1%
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
7,875
2.2%
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
614,944
37.4%
Shehyni-Medyka
172,962
48.0%
Krakivets-Korczowa
CROSSINGS
23
When selecting border posts to cross, the
destination country is not the primary driver
for locals living within the 50 km from the
border. Poland is the main target country
for them, as we have seen in the Locals Are
Main Clients section.The exact choice of Pol-
ish city may play a bigger role but we cannot
gauge this effect since mobile operator can
see only the foreign country, not the city.
The situation is a bit different with
Ukrainians from more distant regions (see
Figure 9. What border post you cross may
depend on where you go if you are not a
Shehyni-Medyka is the busiest border
post out of the six ones in focus here. It is
used by 34 percent of all travellers, both
from Ukraine and foreign countries (see
Figure 10. Anatomy of border posts).This is
the only land point with Poland where you
can cross on foot. Moreover, google maps
often lead drivers via this border post.
ShehyniisclosetoPrzemyśl,aPolishtown,
popular among local Ukrainians. They go
there to sell alcohol and cigarettes, stock up
with foodstuff, and sell it back in Ukraine or
just go for shopping there. Moreover, it is an
important trade route and key station on the
Lviv-Kraków railway route. As a result, it at-
tracts more travellers as a good transit point.
Other big border posts are Krakivets and
Rava Rus’ka. Krakivets is right on the E40 in-
ternational route, that is the longest one
joining French Calais with Kazakh city Ridder,
next to the border with China. Rava-Rus’ka is
convenient for those heading towards Lublin
and Warsaw. Therefore, it is popular among
locals going for shopping to Lublin or those
who take a trip from Lublin airport.
Moreover, international roads are lead-
ing to these three crossing points. Other
three border posts, in particular Hrushiv,
Uhryniv, and Smilnytsia, are small and used
largely by locals.Though here joint control
is practiced. As a result, checks are quicker
since Ukrainian and Polish officials do them
DESTINATION COUNTRY MATTERS SOMETIMES
local). Poland still prevails in the choice
of country to visit though tto a lesser ex-
tent. As a result, there is an association of
moderate strength between the country
of their choice and the border post. When
they opt for Poland, which is most often
the case, the options they select are more
diverse than if they head for Germany or
Czechia, for instance. In the latter case,
they focus more on Krakivets crossing
point because of the international road
here and Shehyni crossing point, an im-
portant transit point on the trade route.
SHEHYNI IS THE BUSIEST BORDER POST
in one place and only once.
People struggle to cross the three big
crammed points waiting long in queues.
In the cases of Shehyni and Krakivets, the
issue is a bigger number of those willing
to cross the border here than the capacity
of these border posts. The capacity of Ra-
va-Rus’ka is not fully exploited, instead (see
Figure 10). This might be related to the
shortage of staff.
Therefore, reconstruction of these bor-
der posts and adequate staff size would
ease the situation. Another possible rem-
edy is to offload part of the traffic to the
smaller border posts. This could be real
when roads leading to them are repaired.
Moreover, better roads between the
crossing points would allow Ukrainians to
reach any closest crossing point with less
queue without a mishap that is a far cry
from the current situation when drivers
virtually scramble through potholes the
roads are riddled with. Repairing the road
from Mostyska to Krakivets under the
Cross-border Cooperation Programme Po-
land-Belarus-Ukraine 2014 – 2020 would
contribute to this cause.8
The reconstruction of three crossing
points and the repairment of five road
sections are in part financed by the Polish
loan. However, its realization is repeatedly
delayed.
8
“Accessible Polish-Ukrainian Border: Joint Road Infrastructure Modernization,”Carpathian Euroregion, http://bit.do/fiK4r
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
POLICY IDEA
POLICY IDEA
The capacity of Shehyni and Krakivets does not reflect the real pressure on them.
The reconstruction is needed.
Repairing roads to other border posts could offload some burden from them.
Travellers should have a possibility to easily reach out neighbouring crossing
points via good highways when a target border post is crammed.
The capacity of Rava-Rus’ka is not exploited in full. More staff is needed.
Shehyni is the busiest border post out of the six. Other big crossing points are Krakivets and
Rava-Rus’ka.
Krakivets
Shehyni
Medyka
Korczowa
Budomierz
SmilnytsiaKrościenko
Lviv
Hrushiv
Uhryniv
Rava-Rus’ka
Hrebenne
Dołhobyczów
LVIV
REGION
VOLYN
REGION
LUBLIN
WOJEWÓDZTWO
PODKARPACKIE
WOJEWÓDZTWO
TERNOPIL
REGION
Figure 10.
ANATOMY OF
BORDER POSTS
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
SHEHYNI IS THE BUSIEST BORDER POST
CAPACITY V REALITY
1,368,881
6,018,544
4,063,525
3,100,463
1,817,035
1,321,216
Shehyni-Medyka
Krakivets-Korczowa
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
Hrushiv-Budomierz
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
Rava-Rus’ka – Hrebenne Krakivets – Korczowa
Shehyni – Medykaactual, 2018
project
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
SHEHYNI AND KRAKIVETS ARE OVERCROWDED WHILE RAVA-RUS’KA’S CAPACITY IS
NOT FULLY EXPLOITED.
26
POLICY IDEA
Repairing road to Hrushiv border post would make a trip here easier for those
who opt for it in lieu of Krakivets.
HRUSHIV IS MORE OFTEN
USED TO LEAVE IN LIEU OF
ENTERING UKRAINE
UKRAINIANS:
DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN
EXITS AND
ENTRIES
Data source: State Border Guard of Ukraine.
1,005,005
704,241
Ukrainians
left the country
entered
the country
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
Krakivets-Korczowa
Shehyni-Medyka
Hrushiv-Budomierz
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
200,000-100,000 100,000-200,000 00 300,000 400,000
27
POLICY IDEA
Building more lanes for cars and buses on the Ukrainian side should increase the
throughput capacity of Krakivets-Korczowa border post. The project is expected to
be funded by the Polish loan.
FOREIGNERS:
DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN
ENTRIES
AND EXITS
FOREIGNERS LIKE KRAKIVETS
TO ENTER UKRAINE
BUT LESS TO LEAVE IT
Data source: State Border Guard of Ukraine.
187,634
239,967
foreigners left
the country
foreigners
entered the
country
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
Krakivets-Korczowa
Shehyni-Medyka
Hrushiv-Budomierz
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
200,000-100,000 100,000-200,000 00 300,000 500,000400,000 600,000
28
Data source: Kyivstar
50 KM
FROM BORDER
17%
21%
5% 31%
16%
10%
Data source: Kyivstar
(NO LONGER) CROSSING ON FOOT IN UHRYNIV
Locals cross border in Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów in 21 percent of cases. Since it is on the far
north-west of Lviv region, its main consumers are not resident of Sokal district where it is
placed but of neighbouring Ivanychi district, Volyn’ region. Living close they could visit Po-
land on foot by January 2019 when the pedestrian lane was terminated.
POLICY IDEA
A possibility to cross border on
foot in Rava-Rus’ka would match the
needs of local residents who often
opt for this border post.
Rank District Region Crossings
1 Ivanychi Volyn’ 49,703
2 Sokal Lviv 25,971
Hrushiv-Budomierz
Krakivets-Korczowa
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
Shehyni-Medyka
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Ivanychi
Volodymyr-
Volyns’kyi
Liubomil’
Shats’k
Sokal
Zhovkva
Yavoriv
Mostys’ka
StaryiSambir
Turka
districts
Volyn’region
5,132
49,703
1,254 506 1,362 385 133 113 54
25,971
districts
Lviv region
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
Rava-Rus’ka is the most popular border post among local resident
29
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
2018 2019
POLICY IDEA
Pedestrian crossing in Uhryniv would serve locals popping to Poland from both
Lviv and Volyn’regions.
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JULY
UHRYNIV-
DOLHOBYCZOW
30
SMILNYTSIA-KROŚCIENKO BUSTLES WITH FOREIGNERS
Smilnytsia became more popular among Poles after the nearby road section from Staryi
Sambir to Lviv was repaired. More tour buses opt for it instead of overcrowded Shehyni.
Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
POLICY IDEA
POLICY IDEA
A road section nearby Smilnytsia-Krościenko border post should be repaired un-
der the project funded with the Polish loan.
Better roads to border posts could boost regional tourism luring more Polish cit-
izens and other foreigners.
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Hrushiv-Budomierz
107,789
Krakivets-Korczowa
427,601
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
381,123
Smilnytsia-Krościenko
397,081
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów
124,194
Shehyni-Medyka
735,347
31
Much more Ukrainians opt for Hrushiv to
leave Ukraine while much less come back
via the this border post. The reason is that
the road leading to it is frayed and ruined
(see Figure 10. Anatomy of border posts).
HRUSHIV IS AN OPTION INSTEAD
OF KRAKIVETS DESPITE RUINED ROADS
Nevertheless, people go here instead of
Krakivets that is more crowded.9,10 Fixing
this road would make their trips cosier and
lift the burden from Krakivets. The Polish
loan covers the expenses.
By and large, the inflow and outflow
of foreigners – largely Polish citizens - is
balanced at all border posts but Krakiv-
ets. The number of people who came into
Ukraine and left it is more or less similar in
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, Rava-Rus’ka-Hre-
benne, Hrushiv-Budomierz, Shehyni-Medy-
ka, and Smilnytsia-Krościenko. Meanwhile,
about 50,000 of those who got to Krakiv-
ets-Korczowa border post opted for other
crossing points when leaving (see Figure
10. Anatomy of border posts). The Polish
A4 autostrada, a part of the E40 Europe-
an route, crosses the entire country from
FOREIGNERS LIKE KRAKIVETS FOR ENTRY
BUT LESS FOR EXIT
German to Ukrainian border. Polish roads
to other border posts, though largely in
good condition, lack parking and toilets.11
Therefore, Poles opt for this border post
more willingly when entering Ukraine. The
potential of this border post is nonetheless
underused because of poor infrastructure
on the Ukrainian side of the border.
The IDS-Bud, a Polish company, won a
bid for building five more lanes for cars and
two more lanes for buses and reconstruct-
ing present facilities for trucks.12 The proj-
ect is funded by the Polish loan. It should
break the logjam at the Ukrainian side.
9
“Road Repair to Hrushiv Will Start This Year,”Vsetut, 21.03.19, http://vsetutpl.com/remont-dorogy-na-grushiv-rozpochnut-vzhe-tsogo-roku
10
As Krakivets is often crowded only on direction to Poland, people still prefer it to bad roads of Hrushiv when coming back.
11
Marta Jaroszewicz and Krzysztof Mrozek,“The Border of Modern Neighborhood. How to Build It: Qualitative Research on the Polish-Ukrainian Border,”draft to
be published soon, as of December 2019.
12
“Construction Of Areas For Passenger Vehicles And Buses In The Checkpoint For Road Traffic “Krakivets” And Reconstruction Of The Infrastructure Of The
UkrainianPartOfTheExistingCheckpoint“Krakivets”OnTheUkrainian-polishBorder,”OpenTendersOnline,https://www.opentenders.online/tenders/1994597
Source: GoogleMaps
32
Uhryniv is often a choice of local resi-
dents. They cross here in 21 percent of cas-
es. People could cross it on foot for about
three and a half years until it was closed
in 2019. The official reasons are poor infra-
structure on the Ukrainian side, in particu-
lar no lighting, footways, rubbish bins, and
parking. People had to walk beside high-
way endangering their life and health. As a
result, we see a steep drop of crossings via
this border post in January 2019 (see Fig-
ure 10. Anatomy of border posts).
Locals tell that they crossed often to visit
relatives or worked nearby.They downgrade
the possibility of the shuttle trade. “While
Poles buy vodka and cigarettes from Ukrai-
nians right at the Shehyni crossing point,
the situation is different in Uhryniv.The clos-
est Polish shop is 4 kilometres away,” claims
a civil society activist from Sokal.
It is easier and cheaper for local residents
to hop the border on foot. There is no need
to fill up the tank and pay for car insurance
Projectpicture of the future pedestrian lane in Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne border crossing point
Courtesy of Max Nefyodov, facebook post, http://bit.do/fiVVE
(NO LONGER)
CROSSING ON FOOT IN UHRYNIV
or for a bus ticket.
Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów crossing point is
in Sokal district. It is the farthest northern
border post of Lviv region. While local res-
ident from Sokal district are quite active
consumers, people from neighbouring
Ivanychi district of Volyn’ region leapfrog
them in the number of crossings. They
crossed here twice more often, almost
50,000 times (see Figure 10). The geogra-
phy of this border post is wider than of
the other ones.“People from Novovolynsk
of Ivanychi district rent house near Uhryniv.
They cross every day to work at Polish saw-
mill nearby. It was easier to get there with
the pedestrian lane,”provides an example a
local community leader.
Other popular crossing points among
locals are the three big ones. Shehyni bor-
der post is the only one that allows walk-
ing through it. Rava-Rus’ka can become
the next one with pedestrian lane. It is sup-
posed to be financed by the Polish loan.
33
Tour buses from Przemyśl more often
opt for border post in Smilnytsia instead of
Shehyni, though the latter is much closer. It
is much smaller but less busy. Buses cross
the border here much faster.
Some road sections from this border
post to Lviv are still in poor condition. It
should be repaired thanks to the Polish
Source: Lviv Regional State Administration, “Improving Borderland Road Infrastructure in
Lviv Region,”20.03.2019, http://bit.do/fiVCA
SMILNYTSIA-KROŚCIENKO
BUSTLES WITH FOREIGNERS
loan. Meanwhile, a long section from Staryi
Sambir to Lviv is improved due to customs
experiment when 50 percent of customs
revenues exceeding targets went on road
repairs.13 This is a reason for this surge of
interest to this crossing point among for-
eigners (see Figure 10. Anatomy of border
posts).
13
Lviv Regional State Administration’s response to public request of Europe Without Barriers, no ОГ-188/ЗПІ, 16.05.19
ROADS REPAIRED DUE TO CUSTOMS EXPERIMENT
POLAND
UKRAINE
Lviv
Smilnytsia
Staryi Sambir
34
Local residents usually opt for the clos-
est border posts in the same district where
they live (see Figure 11. Locals: Who cross-
es and where). Some districts like Yavoriv
has two crossing points which make sense
since local residents are the most active
consumers of border infrastructure. People
But the road from Chervonohrad to
Rava-Rus’ka crossing point is fraying. It
is important not only for travellers but for
local development too. “This road is ca-
pable of becoming an impetus for the de-
velopment of adjacent villages like Belz
or Uhniv,” the Sokal official grumbles. Its
repair is supposed to be financed by the
Polish loan. But its realization is repeat-
edly delayed.
Staryi Sambir district’s residents bear
the brunt of bad roads to Shehyni since
they often cross the border here in lieu of
Smilnytsia border post that is in the same
district. Firstly, the road leading to Smilnyt-
sia is creaking. The Polish loan should cov-
er expenses for its repair if implemented.
Moreover, you need to drive through twisty
mountain roads on the Polish side. On the
LOCAL RESIDENTS: WHO CROSSES AND WHERE
AND DO THEY NEED NEW BORDER POSTS?
from other districts may want to head for
neighboring crossing points. For instance,
Sokal district’s inhabitants choose neigh-
bouring Rava-Rus’ka crossing point instead
of Uhryniv when they head for Rzeszów or
Kraków. Uhryniv is the option when Lublin
is their final destination.
one hand, you can enjoy picturesque land-
scapes. On the other hand, it takes more
time and effort.
Shehyni is a good alternative in this re-
gard. Meanwhile, it is the busiest road bor-
der post in Lviv region. A new small cross-
ing point similar to Hrushiv that is planned
in Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice could meet
the needs of the local resident and handle
part of the load on Shehyni-Medyka cross-
ing point, instead.
There are also projects of creating new
border posts in Lopushanka-Michniowiec
and Boberka-Smolnik. Both would be in
Turka district. However, its residents sel-
dom cross the border. People from this dis-
trict are less than 1 percent of all local con-
sumers. Therefore, a tiny border post here
might cater for local needs, if any at all.
Kraków
Rzeszów
Lublin
Rava-Ruska
Uhryniv
Chervonohrad
35
Poland allocated loan amounted to up
to EUR 100 m for Ukrainian borderland in
2015.14 It should fund projects in Lviv re-
gion, inter alia, to
• modernise three crossing points:
- reconstruct Shehyni-Medyka border post,
- build pedestrian crossing at
Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne border post,
- build separate lanes for cars and buses
at Krakivets-Korczowa border post,
• repair roads
leading to Smilnytsia-Krościenko,
Hrushiv-Budomierz, Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne
border posts and a potential future border
post in Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice
(see Figure 12. Polish money can make
difference).
It should have financed also renova-
tion of seven divisions of Ukrainian border
guards. But as of October 2019 no bidder
was interested in applying a tender offer.
Delivering on these projects would
pitch in to meet the pressing needs of the
travellers. It would help to deal with the
given bottlenecks unveiled by the data in
the previous sections.
Firstly, it would amend throughput capac-
ity of the biggest and busiest border posts
POLISH MONEY
likeShehyni-MedykaandKrakivets-Korczowa
to meet the actual flow of people.
Repairing road sections leading to
Smilnytsia-Krościenko, Hrushiv-Budo-
mierz, and Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne bor-
der posts would make trips of local
Ukrainian residents heading for this
crossing points easier and cosier. What’s
more, it could offload burden from the
most crammed crossing points.
Better infrastructure could boost tour-
ism in the region as the example with Smil-
nytsia-Krościenko border post shows (see
Smilnytsia-Krościenko Bustles With
Foreigners section). Polish citizens make
tours here. More possibilities to cross on
foot and with bike with pedestrian lane in
Rava-Rus’ka could further add to the tour-
ism potential. It would also serve locals
who often opt for this border post.
More so, some roads like Chervo-
nohrad-Rava-Rus’ka could connect villag-
es along them to the rest of the country
providing an impetus to local develop-
ment.
But the launch of the projects to be fund-
ed by the Polish loan is repeatedly delayed.
At the moment, the major issue is the price
change since 2017 and 2018 when the re-
lated contracts with Polish private compa-
nies were closed. 15
14
Loan Agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of Republic of Poland Conditioned on the Related Assistance, 9.09.2015, revision
on 3.12.2018, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/616_196?lang=en
15
Informations received during unofficial discussions with representatives of relevant state offices.
Locals mainly opt for the closest border posts. Though residents of Sokal and Staryi Sambir
often head for neighbouring crossing points. Besides, people barely hop the border in some
districts like Turka.
Data source: Kyivstar Cramer’s V = .688 Sig.(2-tailed)=.000
POPULAR BORDER POST:
CROSSINGS BY DISTRICT
RESIDENTS
BORDER POST POPULARITY
AMONG DISTRICT RESIDENTS
(SHARE, %)
VOLYN
REGION
LUBLIN
WOJEWÓDZTWO
PODKARPACKIE
WOJEWÓDZTWO
TERNOPIL
REGION
Figure 11.
LOCALS: WHO CROSSES
AND WHERE
Korczowa
Budomierz
Krościenko
Mostyska Lviv
Hrebenne
Dołhobyczów
Staryi Sambir
Yavoriv
Smilnytsia
potential border post
Malhowice
Uhryniv
Ivanychi
Hrushiv
Zhovkva
Rava-Rus’ka
Medyka
16,423
(30%)
33,119
(61%)
%
86,079
(85%)
69,834
(39%)
49,703
(94%)
88,466
(82%)
78,048
(44%)
25,971
(64%)
8,829
(22%)
Shehyni
36
Nyzhankovychi
Krakivets
Sokal’
IVANO-
FRANKIVSK
REGION
ZAKARPATTIA
REGION
POLICY IDEA
The low frequency of crossing the border by Turka district residents when compared to other neigh-
bouringdistrictsmaysignalthattinyborderpostsinLopushanka-MichniowiecandBoberka-Smolnikinlieu
of the full-fledged ones could cater for local needs, if any.
POLICY IDEA
A new small border post in Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice would serve people from Staryi Sambir
district who opt for Shehyni instead of Smilnytsia crossing point that is in the same district. It could
also offload some burden from Shehyni border post that is the most crammed one in Lviv region. A
good road leading to the potential crossing point is important to make this happen.
POLICY IDEA
Improving road from Chervonohrad to Rava-Rus’ka as well as the road to Smilnytsia and from
Smilnytsia to Shehyni would make trips of about 14 percent of locals easier and more comfortable.
It may also become an impetus for local development.
Ivanychi
Sokal’
Zhovkva
Yavoriv
Lviv
Staryi Sambir
Turka
Mostyska
Hrushiv – Budomierz
Krakivets – Korczowa
Rava-Rus’ka – Hrebenne
Smilnytsia – Krościenko
Uhryniv – Dołhobyczów
Shehyni – Medyka
Volodymyr-Volynskyi
Liuboml’
Shats’k
SIX BORDER POSTS:
CROSSINGS BY
DISTRICT
RESIDENTS
Uhryniv – Dołhobyczów / Rava – Rus’ka-Hrebenne / Hrushiv – Budomierz / Krakivets – Korczowa / Shehyni – Medyka / Smilnytsia – Krościenko sum
799
0.2%
3,361
0.6%
6,171
1%
52,896
10%
40,568
7%
107,974
20%
177,390
32%
101,034
18%
54,440
10%
4,696
0.9%
38
Polish loan should fund projects of reconstructing three border posts and five road sections
leading to border posts. But their launch is repeatedly delayed.
Figure 12.
POLISH MONEY CAN MAKE
DIFFERENCE
T-14-04
Chervonohrad –
Rava-Rus’ka
km 3+137- 56+307
Contractor: DROG-BUD
Price: EUR 21.5 m
Price: EUR 19.5 m
ROADS1
O142001
Yavoriv –
Hrushiv
km 0+000- km 19+500
Contractor: DROG-BUD
Price: EUR 6.9 m
ROADS2
T-14-03
Hrushiv –
Nemyriv
km 3+000 - km 12+691
Contractor: UNIBEP
Price: EUR 3.5 m
ROADS3
Rava-Rus’ka –
Hrebenne
construction of
pedestrian crossing
Contractor: T-4B
Price: EUR 1.585 m
BORDER POSTS6
T-14-18
Nyzhankovychi –
Sambir –
Drohobych – Stryi
km 0+000-km 46+435
Contractor: DROG-BUD
Price: EUR 19.5 m
ROADS5
T-14-01
Smilnytsia
border post –
Staryi Sambir
km 14+950- km 17-950
Contractor: DROG-BUD
Price: EUR 2.04 m
ROADS4
Shehyni –
Medyka
reconstruction
Contractor: UNIBEP
Price: EUR 15.72 m
BORDER POSTS7
Krakivets – Korczowa
construction of areas
for cars and buses
reconstruction of
existing infrastructure
Contractor: IDS-Bud
Price: EUR 6.945 m
BORDER POSTS8
39
Source: Response of Lviv Region Public Administration to public request of Europe without
Barriers think tank, no. ЗВГ-ВИХ 1413/0/19, 3.06.2019.
Uhryniv
Dołhobyczów
Hrebenne
Rava-Rus’ka
Hrushiv
Korczowa
Medyka
lviv
Zhovkva
Nemyriv
Chervonograd
Sokal’
Zamosc
Tomaszow
Lubelski
Sambir
Drohobych
Stryi
Nyzhankovychi
Staryi
Sambir
Mostys’ka
Yavoriv
Smilnytsia
Krościenko
Budomierz
Shehyni
Krakivets
6 1 2 3
4 5 7 8
40
Sources:“Reconstruction of the ‘Shehyni’ International Border Checkpoint for Road Traffic
on the Ukrainian-Polish Border,” Prozorro Public Procurement, https://prozorro.gov.ua/ten-
der/UA-2017-07-07-000596-a; “Construction Of Areas For Passenger Vehicles And Buses In
The Checkpoint For Road Traffic “Krakivets” And Reconstruction Of The Infrastructure Of
The Ukrainian Part Of The Existing Checkpoint “Krakivets” On The Ukrainian-polish Border,”
OpenTenders.Online, https://www.opentenders.online/tenders/1994597; “Construction
Of The Pedestrian Crossing In The International Border Checkpoint «Rava-Ruska» On The
Ukrainian-polish Border,” Prozorro Public Procurement, https://prozorro.gov.ua/tender/UA-
2018-01-24-000788-b; State Fiscal Service of Ukraine’s response to public request of Europe
without Barriers think tank, no. 793/ЗПІ/99-99-18-01-02-15, 22.04.2019.
POLICY IDEA
Delivering on the projects to be funded by the Polish loan would pitch in to mak-
ing some policy ideas in previous sections come true.
DAILY CAPACITY OF BUSIEST BORDER POSTS
0 1,000
2,122
2,139
496
88
2,395
494
89
1,900
4,000
250
100
2,000
300
500
40
150
3,000
3,000
3,000
500
1,300
100
60
2,000 3,000 4,000
Krakivets-KorczowaRava-Rus’ka-HrebenneShehyni-Medyka
actual, 2018 current project throughput capacity in bidding offer
саrsсаrsсаrstruckstruckstrucksbusesbusesbuses
576
101
people
/
PART
4.
KEY
POINTS
AND
POLICY
IDEAS
42
The border between Ukraine and Po-
land is the busiest one for both countries.
Every nine out of ten travellers are Ukrainian
citizens. And more than half of them live right
next to it. They have their own needs to ca-
ter for. They consume it differently than
other Ukrainian citizens and have different
expectations.
We focus here on border posts placed in
Lviv region since it hosts six out of eight
road crossing points. Local residents hop
the border here mainly for work, shopping,
or small-scale trade. They are far from be-
ing rich. And consider border as an income
source.
People from distant regions spurn this
lifestyle. Yes, border has become the way
of living for locals. So, Ukraine limited
the number of crossings and the value of
goods they can bring back from Poland
since 2018.
Many locals are ready to change this
lifestyle and they know how. Firstly, infra-
structure projects like repairing roads
barely ridden on by non-local people can
open isolated villages and town to the rest
of the country relieving their plight. More
shops, filling stations, parking would not
only make journeys more pleasant for trav-
ellers but would bring more revenues to lo-
cal budgets.
The borderland has an immense tour-
ism potential. After Lviv-Staryi Sambir
road has been repaired, more tour buses
cross at Smilnytsia-Krościenko border post
avoiding overcrowded Shehyni.
The projects of kayak trails, tours
through ancient buildings, natural beau-
ties, and sacred places could attract more
Polish tourists. They are the main foreign
visitors and about third part of them head for
the borderland.
We have only one border post where
you can cross on foot or with bike. It is in
Shehyni-Medyka. Meanwhile, more pedes-
trian crossings could lure more Polish vis-
itors. Biking tours are a new vogue in Poland.
Pedestrian crossings are even more im-
portant for local residents since they live in
short distances from the border posts. But
they should not become localised small-
scale trade points, a development largely
perceived as negative.
At the moment, Polish loan will fi-
nance building pedestrian crossing at Ra-
va-Rus’ka-Hrebenne border post. Uhryniv
crossing point has a big potential too. Peo-
ple could walk through the border by 2019.
Pedestrian crossing was closed because
Ukraine had not built crucial infrastructure.
People were virtually walking across road-
way without street lights that was danger-
ous. The border post is in Sokal’district but
its geography is much wider. People from
neighbouring Ivanychi district of Volyn’
region visited it far more often than Sokal
district’s residents. The risk of turning into
trading point is downgraded by the fact
that the closest shop on the Polish side is
4 km away.
Living close to our six border posts lo-
cals usually head for the closest one to en-
ter Poland. As a result, they wend their
way to the three small crossing points
in Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, Hrushiv-Budo-
mierz, and Smilnytsia-Krościenko more of-
ten than travellers from more distant parts
of Ukraine. Better access to these small
entry-exit points could offload the bur-
den from the three big and overcrowd-
ed places in Shehyni-Medyka, Krakiv-
ets-Korczowa, and Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne.
Pothole-free roads is key for drivers to
make it to these small crossing points. It
is important that you can reach the bor-
der post itself. But also it should be easy
to drive from a crammed crossing point in
case you are stuck there to a neighbour-
ing one that may happen to be free. Many
people opt for Hrushiv in lieu of Krakivets
even now despite the roads. Though such a
journey is all but a pleasure.
It is at the three small crossing points
where the joint control is applied. It makes
the checks faster since Ukrainian and Polish
officials do them in one placeand only once.
Atthesametime,thepotentialofbigbor-
der posts is not fully used. Foreigners - large-
ly Polish citizens – who tear along the high-
way to Krakivets-Korczowa crossing point
entering Ukraine reluctantly come back via
this border post. More lanes are needed for
cars and buses on the Ukrainian side.
Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne crossing point,
43
in turn, suffers from understaffing. The of-
ficers grapple with the flows but they can-
not handle them. A good road to this bor-
der post from Chervonohrad would make
trip easier for about 20 percent of local res-
idents from Sokal district often heading for
Rzeszów or Kraków.
Shehyni-Medyka is the oldest border
post and the busiest out of all six ones. So it
is thirst for a full reconstruction.
There are ideas of new border posts
like Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice, Lopushan-
ka-Michniowiec, and Boberka-Smolnik.
They are discussed in media and support-
ed by Lviv regional authorities.16 The new
crossing points could take some flows
of people on themselves. Nyzhanjovy-
chi-Malhowice could cater for the needs of
people who now cross at Shehyni crossing
point, the busiest one, for instance.
Meanwhile, Lopushanka-Michniowiec
and Boberka-Smolnik in Turkiv district
would serve less than one percent of peo-
ple living in borderland. A tiny border post
might be enough here, if any at all.
Some of these bottlenecks could be re-
solved with the Polish loan. It should help
to modernise three big border posts and
repair roads to some smaller ones. But it is
repeatedly delayed.
“Polish citizens laugh, they joyfully cross the border while we are kept waiting,”
says Mostyska-based museum director. People are kept waiting hours at the border,
and they see it as a discrimination. Not in a legal sense but more as a perception.
So, delivering on needs of travellers and resolving major bottlenecks would not just
make their journey more comfortable and faster and streamline the flows of people
but would have an impact on the perception of discrimination too.
16
Response by the Lviv Regional State Administration on the public request of the Europe without Barriers think tank of 12.02.2019.
44
FIGURES
PART 1.
BIG DATA AND BORDER
Figure 1.
CROSSING UKRAINIAN-POLISH BORDER
Figure 2.
WHICH BORDER POSTS AND WHY
Figure 3.
WHY MOBILE DATA
Figure 4.
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN DATA: ARE THEY REAL?
Figure 5.
TELECOM DATA REFLECTS REALITY, WE HAVE THE
GROUNDS TO THINK SO
PART 2.
WHO CROSSES THE BORDER
AND WHERE THEY GO
Figure 6.
BORDER CLIENTS
Figure 7.
POLES ARE MAIN VISITORs
PART 3.
CLOSER LOOK AT BORDER POSTS
Figure 8.
WHERE YOU’RE FROM IMPACTS WHERE
YOU CROSS
Figure 9.
WHAT BORDER POST YOU CROSS MAY DEPEND ON
WHERE YOU GO IF YOU ARE NOT A LOCAL
Figure 10.
ANATOMY OF BORDER POSTS
Figure 11.
LOCALS: WHO CROSSES AND WHERE
Figure 12.
POLISH MONEY CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE
02
03
04
06
08
09
11
12
16
20
21
22
24
36
38
Ukraine-Poland. Mobile Border In Between
Ukraine-Poland. Mobile Border In Between

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Ukraine-Poland. Mobile Border In Between

  • 1. author: Ruslan MINICH Lviv Region (Ukraine) – Poland: MOBILE BORDER IN BETWEEN Dołhobyczów – Uhryniv Hrebenne–Rava-Rus’ka Budomierz – Hrushiv Korczowa – Krakivets Medyka – Shehyni lviv Zhovkva Chervonograd Sokal’ Zamosc Tomaszow Lubelski Sambir Staryi Sambir Mostys’ka Yavoriv Krościenko – Smilnytsia
  • 2. Author: Ruslan Minich, Europe without Barriers The material was prepared with the support oftheInternationalRenaissanceFoundation within the framework of the Build­ing Safe and Humane Borders Through the Public Assessment of the Polish-Ukrainian Border project. The material reflects the position of the authors and does not necessarily coin- cide with the position of the International Renaissance Foundation. The big data for the analysis were provided by Kyivstar. Project team: Iryna Sushko, Ruslan Minich, Pavlo Kravchuk, Europe without Barriers The International Renaissance Foundation is one of the largest charitable foundations in Ukraine. Since 1990 we have been help- ing to develop an open society in Ukraine based on democratic values. The Founda- tion has supported about 20,000 projects worth more than $200 million. The IRF is part of the Open Society Foundations net- worke stablished by investor and philan- thropist George Soros. Site: www.irf.ua Facebook: www.fb.com/irf.ukraine Design: Viktoriia Fedyna
  • 3. 01 PART 1. BIG DATA AND BORDER SIX BORDER POSTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND POLAND WHY BIG DATA? WHAT MOBILE DATA CAN (NOT) TELL US CAN WE TRUST THE DATA? SO, WHAT DID WE DO WITH DATA? NO, WE CANNOT TRACK PEOPLE Part 2. WHO CROSSES THE BORDER AND WHERE THEY GO LOCALS ARE MAIN CLIENTS POLISH TOURISTS LIKE TO VISIT UKRAINIAN BORDERLAND PART 3. CLOSER LOOK AT BORDER POSTS LOCAL RESIDENTS CONSUME DIFFERENTLY DESTINATION COUNTRY MATTERS SOMETIMES SHEHYNI IS THE BUSIEST BORDER POST HRUSHIV IS AN OPTION INSTEAD OF KRAKIVETS DESPITE RUINED ROADS FOREIGNERS LIKE KRAKIVETS FOR ENTRY BUT LESS FOR EXIT (NO LONGER) CROSSING ON FOOT IN UHRYNIV SMILNYTSIA-KROŚCIENKO BUSTLES WITH FOREIGNERS LOCAL RESIDENTS:WHO CROSSES ANDWHERE AND DOTHEY NEED NEW BORDER POSTS? POLISH MONEY PART 4. KEY POINTS AND POLICY IDEAS FIGURES 02 03 05 07 07 10 10 11 12 16 20 21 23 23 31 31 32 33 34 35 41 44 author: Ruslan MINICH Lviv Region (Ukraine) – Poland: MOBILE BORDER IN BETWEEN
  • 5. 03 The border between Ukraine and Poland is the busiest one for both countries (see Figure 1. Crossing Ukrainian-Polish border). People crossed it over 10 million times just in the first half of 2019 and over 21 million times - in 2018.1 Data sources: Polish State Guard, The Border Guard Service of Ukraine 1 Polish Border Guard, statistics, January - June 2019, http://bit.do/ffi6N Figure 1. CROSSING UKRAINIAN-POLISH BORDER The border between Ukraine and Poland is the busiest one for both countries. 2018, million SIX BORDER POSTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND POLAND POLAND UKRAINE Russia Belarus Moldova Slovakia Hungary Romania sea sea Temporarily occupied Crimea plane 16.7 18 12 UKRAINE, border section with POLAND, border section with 13.6 11 7.68.96 3.9 2.5 0.35 3.5 8.5 2.7 0.2 21.6 Contact line in Donbas
  • 6. 04 In the previous study called Living Near the Border: The Cases of Shehyni and Uhryniv Communities,2 we largely analysed two lo- cal communities in Shehyni and Uhryniv who live near the borderline. The entire border section was considered too where possible and appropriate as well as where the data were available. At the same time, the primary focus was on these two com- munities. We interviewed (1) local and re- gional officials, customs, border guards; (2) influencers from civil society, business, me- dia, and academia; and (3) people living at the border. Locals are the main clients and consumers experiencing border presence every day. They are also the stakeholders who have a profound impact on the border. We could not but need to consider them in Figure 2. WHICH BORDER POSTS AND WHY Cars are the most popular way to enter Poland for Ukrainians. And Lviv region hosts six out of the eight such crossing points between Ukraine and Poland. Data source: The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine order to unveil deep roots of the challenges the borderland is facing as well as the op- portunities and potential it contains. Here we aim at extending the study to all border posts in Lviv region where you can cross by car. Cars are the most popular way to enter Poland for Ukrainians.3 And Lviv re- gion hosts six out of the eight such crossing points between Ukraine and Poland (see Figure 2. Which border posts and why). THEY ARE: • Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, • Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne, • Hrushiv-Budomierz, • Krakivets-Korczowa, • Shehyni-Medyka, and • Smilnytsia-Krościenko. 2 Minich, Ruslan.“Living Near the Border: The Cases of Shehyni and Uhryniv Communities,”Kyiv, 2019, http://bit.do/ffjyV 3 At the same time, there is only one pedestrian border post with Poland while trains largely connect distant Ukrainian cities with Poland but Lviv. Volodymyr-Volynskyi Krakivets Shehyni Medyka Przemyśl Korczowa Budomierz Khyriv SmilnytsiaKrościenko Mostyska Lviv Ustyluh Hrushiv Uhryniv Yahodyn Dorohusk Rava-Rus’ka Hrebenne Werchrata Dołhobyczów Hrubieszów Zosin LVIV REGION VOLYN REGION LUBLIN WOJEWÓDZTWO ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE WOJEWÓDZTWO TERNOPIL REGION
  • 7. 05 The primary source of data is the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. They track virtually everyone who comes into the country or leaves it. We have this aggregat- ed data in response to the official request and use them in this research. Its capacity is, nonetheless, limited. We can see when Ukrainians and foreigners travel, which border posts they select, and whether they head towards Ukraine or leave the country. But the data cannot tell who travels, where they are from, and where exactly they go (see Figure 3. Why mobile data). Consider an example, we can see the volume of local border traf- fic in the Polish border guards’ reports.4 4 Border Guard of Poland, statistics, https://www.strazgraniczna.pl/pl/granica/statystyki-sg/2206,Statystyki-SG.html However, locals living within 30-50 km from the border line can cross it without visa since 2017 due to the visa-free re- gime with the EU. Therefore, it is worth to look at people living within this area, how often they cross the border, instead of considering permits of local border traf- fic counted by border guards. And tele- com data allow us to do just that. More- over, we can discover where borderland infrastructure meet travellers’ need and where it could do better. We look at who travels, where s/he is from and where s/ he heads for, why they select this border post or this route and not the other one to do that. WHY BIG DATA? This allows us to see a bigger picture. As a result, we come up with policy ideas how borderland infrastructure could better meet travellers’needs. Shehyni-Medyka Krakivets-Korczowa Yahodyn-Dorohusk Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne Ustyluh-Zosin Hrushiv-Budomierz Smilnytsia-Krościenko Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów Lviv Mostyska-Przemyśl Yahodyn-Dorohusk Volodymyr-Volynskyi-Hrubieszów Rava-Rus’ka-Werchrata Khyriv-Krościenko 6.02 4.06 3.33 3.10 1.96 1.82 1.37 1.32 0.56 0.13 0.11 0.02 0.003 0 million
  • 8. 06 5 Kyivstar, web-page, https://kyivstar.ua/en/about/about/kyivstar_today 6 Population of Ukraine, State Statistics Service of Ukraine, http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ Therefore, we resort to big data and, par- ticularly, to Kyivstar. It is one of the biggest mobile operators in Ukraine with about 26 million users5 while the population of Ukraine is about 41-42 million, according to Ukrainian statistics service.6 In September 2019, Kyivstar pulled out data about peo- ple who were at 6 road border posts in Lviv region during 13 months from July 2018 to July 2019.This time frame allows to take into account and analyse seasonal fluctua- tions of people. For instance, more foreign tourists visit Ukraine in summer. Also, local residents go for seasonal work to Poland. Kyivstar extracted information about over 14 million border crossings. The share of foreigners is much smaller, almost 300 thousand, which reflects the reality on the ground (similar disproportion is pres- ent in the data of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine). The sample size re- mains big, though, significantly contract- ing confidence interval estimations. We consider crossings instead of people since the idea is to evaluate the pressure on the border posts, its reasons and ramifications. Figure 3. WHY MOBILE DATA BORDER GUARDS’DATA Time Entry/Exit Ukrainian or foreigner CALENDAR VALUE-ADDED OF KYIVSTAR Destination (country; region/district if Ukraine) Origin (country; region/district if Ukraine) Age, sex, income if Ukrainian
  • 9. 07 A user is seen by a Kyivstar’s base station covering the crossing point if s/he makes some action here like a phone call, texting, or surfing the Internet and/or social media. Then we look at where this user was before and after coming at the border post. We can see which region s/he is coming from and where s/he heads to, gender, age, and income. It is easier to see a Ukrainian user abroad since s/he should not make any action to be discovered. It is enough to switch on your smartphone, and you receive the greeting SMS and text messages with the home country embassy contacts and roam- ing tariffs. For this reason, it is easy to overestimate the volume of exits and underestimate re- turns to Ukraine. The picture can be further distorted due to the fact that many people - so-called ‘shuttle traders’, i.e., locals who hop the border to sell cigarettes or alcohol in Poland, stock up there, and then sell food products back in Ukraine, - are considered by Kyivstar only while leaving Ukraine. They are a big share of travellers. At the same time, there are cases when we know where a person was before com- The first safeguard is to see whether the mobile operator’s coverage in regions does not distort the real picture. Let’s say we see a skew to a significantly bigger number of travellers from Lviv region than from any other one. Is that because peo- ple living here more willingly cross the Ukrainian-Polish land border, which does make sense since they are the closest to the six border posts? Or do we see this just be- cause Kyivstar may feast on its popularity in the region and this does not reflect the reality? Figure 4. Regional differences in data: Are they real? confirms our expectations. There are groups of regions with roughly similar Kyivstar popularity, however, with ing to the border post. But then this person disappears without a trace from our sight. Contrary situations are not uncommon too. Or even a person may appear at the cross- ing point without a trace 24 hours before and 24 hours after. Many people have a few SIM cards and may change them, or they may switch the phone off. This is how they may disappear. In any case, it is hard to classify these people as entering or leaving Ukraine. Taking into account these concerns, we had to renounce the idea of comparing entries and exits to gauge emigration vol- umes to Poland. The official data from bor- der guards service gives number of about 214,000 people who have not returned from July 2018 to July 2019 via six border posts under consideration. However, we cannot exclude a possibility that they re- turned via other crossing points. Also, we consider only a sample of people from Ky- ivstar’s database for some purposes. For in- stance, we look only at people who, we are sure, left the country to define the popular country destinations.The number of obser- vations remains, nonetheless, significant accounting for millions of crossings. WHAT MOBILE DATA CAN(NOT) TELL US CAN WE TRUST THE DATA? discernible difference in the number of Ukrainians who opt for our six border posts. So the popularity of Kyivstar in the regions does not tamper with our data. And we can trust the regional differences of travellers. This conclusion is confirmed by weak association between these two variables, Kyivstar’s regional coverage and regional share of Ukrainian travellers (Pearson’s correlation coefficient r is 0.39). In addition, it is not statistically significant, i.e., this association can be observed just because of a random chance (2-tailed test, alpha = 0.06). The information on the Ky- ivstar coverage of foreign citizens is unfor- tunately absent. So we cannot apply the same method.
  • 10. 08 REGIONS We compare telecom data with offi- cial border guards statistics to further check whether it reflects the reality. They have a bigger database though with less information about travellers (see Why Big Data section). They check all entries and exits and have no problems with catching signals, phones in off-mode, or switching SIM cards. So we compare monthly data on each border post selected. Here we can look at both Ukrainians and foreign- ers. The size and relative proportions of those who were at these crossing points are largely similar conforming quality of our data (see Figure 5. Telecom data re- flects reality, we have the grounds to think to) since the dots are not scattered around the plot and approximate a straight line. This conclusion is supported by strong as- sociation between two datasets for Ukrai- nians (Pearson’s r is 0.81) and the moder- ate one for foreigners (Pearson’s r is 0.55). Both of them are statistically significant (alpha is .000, 2-tailed test). So we can trust our telecom data. The next question is what to do with this pool. Figure 4. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN DATA: ARE THEY REAL? Kyivstar regional coverage does not affect the regional data on the share of Ukrainians opted for our six border posts. Pearson’s r=.338 Sig. (2-tailed)=.061 20 30 25 35 40 15 10 5 -5 0 RegionalshareofUkrainiantravellers Kyivstar regional coverage 20 40 60 800
  • 11. 09 Figure 5. TELECOM DATA REFLECTS REALITY, WE HAVE THE GROUNDS TO THINK SO. Kyivstar’s data is largely similar to border guards’ statistics on crossings in size and proportions. So we can trust it. UKRAINIANS FOREIGNERS 200,000 300,000 250,000 350,000 400,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,0000 0 Kyivstar Ukraine’s Border Guard Service 8,000 12,000 10,000 14,000 16,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,0000 0 Pearson’s r =.814 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000 Pearson’s r =.553 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000 Kyivstar Ukraine’s Border Guard Service
  • 12. 10 The six border posts are the main focus of the study. We count people who are the main consumers, in particular, their gender, age, income, places of departure and destination. Therefore, our variables are mainly nominal except age and in- come. Their categories are not numerical and cannot be ranked (e.g. male or female for gender). For instance, Shehyni and Uhryniv are different border posts but neither category is more or less border post than the other. For this reason, we compare relative size of categories with percentages and proportions. The Cramer’s V is applied to measure associations, how strong is the association between two variables. For instance, we apply it to see whether the region where For each task in mind, we receive a separate table from Kyivstar. Every table contains aggregated number of times people cross the border posts divided by age, gender, income, region, and/or country. There are no names or phone numbers or any other personal infor- mation.Therefore, we have no means to establish who exactly crosses the border respecting and responding to possible privacy concerns. SO, WHAT DID WE DO WITH DATA? the Ukrainian traveller is from influences the choice of a particular crossing point or whether the destination country affects the choice of the border post.We select this measure since it can be applied to nominal variables.Also,wecomparesixborderposts with 24 regions and 50 km-borderland and with destination countries. Cramer’s V al- lows us to do this since it has virtually no limits on the number of categories. We evaluate the statistical significance of the Cramer’s V to see whether the ob- tained association is consistent or just be- cause of a random chance. Of course, it measures just the strength of relationship, and not causal relations. Therefore, Cram- er’s V is used as an addition tool to support our hypotheses. NO, WE CANNOT TRACK PEOPLE
  • 13. / Part 2. WHO CROSSES THE BORDER AND WHERE THEY GO Ukrainians are the main stakeholders and users of our six border posts (see Figure 6. Border clients). About nine out of ten cross- ings are by Ukrainian citizens, as unveiled by the Ukrainian border guards’ data. So let’s look closer who they are.
  • 14. 12 The majority of people who go to Po- land are 20-40 years old men. They largely live within 50 kilometres from the border line. They are not rich, in fact the oppo- site – with low or middle income. Poland is important for people living within the 50 km from the border. Locals usually visit Figure 6. BORDER CLIENTS Ukrainians living right next to the border are the main clients of its services. They are largely middle-aged men with low and middle income and head towards Poland. Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine FOREINGNERS UKRAINIANS LOCALS ARE MAIN CLIENTS the neighbouring country for work, shop- ping, or small-scale trade. “Unfortunately, our people cannot visit Poland just for sightseeing. There are many interesting places, but they can’t. They mostly go for livelihood. They need money,”grumbles a local priest. UKRAINIANS LEAD 2,173,135 15,516,529 * Note: We consider crossings instead of people to gauge who often enjoy border services
  • 15. 13 POLICY IDEA Data source: Kyivstar The travellers are largely locals with low and middle income. They usually go to Poland for work, shopping, or small-scale trading. Investments and infrastructure improvement could boost regional development relieving their plight. 20-40 years old borderland residents 50km zone men Lviv region beyond 50km income low other regionsincome middle 78 % 53 % 77.5 % 20 %62 % 27 %30 % PROFILE OF UKRAINIAN TRAVELLER
  • 16. 14 POLICY IDEA Data source: Kyivstar Border management of this section should be tailored to the needs of locals and cater for them. They are the main stakeholders and consumers of its services. Crimea Luhansk region Donetsk region Zaporizhzhia region Kherson region Kharkiv region Sumy region Poltava region Kirovohrad region Odesa region Vinnytsia region Zhytomyr region Rivne region Lviv region beyond 50 km Ivano- Frankivsk region Khmel- nytskyi region Ternopil region Chernivtsi region Zakarpattia region Volyn region beyond 50 km Kyiv region Mykolaiv region Cherkasy region Dnipropetrovsk region Chernihiv region NA 3,067 43,026 163,604 22,013 44,07420,148 70,713 299,945 120,216 242,933 186,894 755,736 20,421 64,067 35,967 44,835 92,196 234,480 382,398 141,297 46,971 680,442 25,992 50 km zone 7,498,281 MAP UKRAINE 2,786,921
  • 17. 15 Data source: Kyivstar Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine CROSSINGS, UKRAINIANS SUMMER IS BUSY SEASON WHERE THEY GO LIVINGWITHIN 50 KM FROM BORDER Poland Czech Republic Germany Other countries 123,954 529,22820,101 77,436 159,096 1,644,826 Poland Other countries 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 July August Septem- ber October November December January February March April May June July 2018 2019
  • 18. 16 For these reasons, border manage- ment of this section should be tailored to the needs of local residents and pro- vide benefits for them. They are thirsty for investments, regional development, and tourism. Outsiders often spurn their lifestyle. “They sleep four hours in the car going to Poland and then four hours - back to Ukraine,” describes shuttle traders an official in Lviv. Many of them go for a few months to Poland to make some lollies. But they cannot quit this without alternatives. “This does not con- tribute to economic development but is rather a way to meet ends,” admits a Poles are major foreign visitors crossing via the six border posts. Their destination is often places closer to the border or a bit deeper into Lviv region in particular to Lviv itself (see Figure 7. Poles are main visitors). “Our people often go to Poland for shopping while Poles’ sheer aim is tourism,”explains a local activist. Figure 7. POLES ARE MAIN VISITORS Ukrainian borderland is popular among Polish visitors. They often come here in summer. POLES ARE MAIN VISITORS Data source: Kyivstar local school principal. The Polish loan may be one of the rem- edies. Poland agreed to finance the recon- struction of three border posts and the re- pairment of five road sections in 2015. This could have boosted some local towns and villages that are virtually cut off the rest of the country and turned into flotsam and jetsam. However, the works are stalled yet (see Polish Money section). Other infrastructure projects like filling stations, parkings, shops would not only make a journey more joyful but also could create new jobs and generate additional in- come to local budgets. POLISH TOURISTS LIKE TO VISIT UKRAINIAN BORDERLAND 66 % POLISH CITIZENS POLICY IDEA Since Ukrainian borderland is popular among Polish tour- ists, it has a tourist potential to develop.
  • 19. 17 Data source: Kyivstar Data source: Kyivstar WHERE FOREIGNERS HANG OUT POLES ARE MAIN VISITORS 50 km zone Lviv region beyond 50 km other regions Poland other countries 101,92290,047 89,192171,544 70,477 Crimea Luhansk region Donetsk region Zaporizhzhia region Kherson region Kharkiv region Sumy region Poltava region Kirovohrad region Odesa region Vinnytsia region Zhytomyr region Rivne region Lviv region beyond 50km Ivano- Frankivsk region Khmel- nytskyi region Ternopil region Chernivtsi region Zakarpattia region Volyn region beyond 50 km Kyiv region Mykolaiv region Cherkasy region Dnipropetrovsk region Chernihiv region NA 120 1,143 2,938 834 1,530775 1,451 7,738 3,454 6,676 4,069 15,708 428 1,374 1,045 1,342 3,038 4,601 8,078 8,025 3,579 22,562 1,414 50 km zone 89,192 70,477
  • 20. 18 CROSSINGS, FOREIGNERS SUMMER IS BUSY SEASON Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine The ideas to lure more tourists is in the air when you come to the borderland. Lo- cals admit the popularity of cycling among Polish citizens and, thus, the need to build cycling pathways to border posts. A possibility to walk through a border post would serve this aim too. “Biking has become a new vogue among Poles. They like making bike tour across Ukraine. And pedestrian lane is the only option to cross the border with a bike,”says a Sokal official. You can cross on foot only in Shehyni now. At the same time, new pedestrian lanes at other border posts should not become a shuttle trading points for Ukrainian border- POLICY IDEA A possibility to cross on foot or by bike should attract more Polish tourists who like biking. land residents. Pothole-free roads linking them to other regions should thwart a pos- sible conservation and localisation (more on this in (No Longer) Crossing On Foot In Uhryniv section). Another potential project is the one within the Cross-border Cooperation Programme Poland - Belarus - Ukraine 2014–2020 called Bug Unites Us - Creation of Two Cross-Border Touristic Kayak Trails.7 It entails 800 km of kayak trails, properly marked and filled with needed facilities. Local authorities go further: they propose to build infrastructure for water crossing at Bug river. 7 “Bug Unites Us - Creation of Two Cross-Border Touristic Kayak Trails”, Cross-border Cooperation Programme Poland - Belarus - Ukraine 2014–2020, https:// www.pbu2020.eu/pl/projects2020/7 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 July August Septem- ber October November December January February March April May June July 2018 2019
  • 21. 19 The regional signature is unique and untouched nature and ancient architecture with hillforts. Sokal district authorities draft a tour route through some of them. The residents also admit a potential of religious tours since here are many places sacred for Poles so they organise pilgrimages. Representatives of the Joint Technical Secretariat of the Cross-border Coopera- tion (CBC) Programme Poland-Belarus-Ukraine participated in the kayaking on the river Bug organized by the Bug Unites Us – Creation of Two Cross-Border Touristic Kay- ak Trails project shortlisted during the first Call for Proposals, August 3, 2019. Photo credits: PBU 14-20
  • 22. / Part 3. CLOSER LOOK AT BORDER POSTS Our six border posts in focus are used by Ukrainians and foreigners in different man- ner. Here we look at peculiarities of each crossing points.
  • 23. 21 Ukrainians from distant regions often cross the border via big border posts such as Shehyni-Medyka, Krakivets-Korczowa, Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne. They can drive here on the international roads. The smaller crossing points like Smilnytsia-Krościenko, Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, Hrushiv-Budom- ierz are less crowded with them. They are more popular among local residents liv- ing within 50 km from the border along with Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne. Even when the roads are in poor condition, it is still Figure 8. WHERE YOU’RE FROM IMPACTS WHERE YOU CROSS The flow of local residents is more uniformly distributed among border posts when compared with the people living farther away. Data source: Kyivstar LOCAL RESIDENTS CONSUME DIFFERENTLY easier for locals to cross the border via the entry-exit point in the same district than moving to the neighbouring one (see Fig- ure 11. Locals: Who crosses and where). As a result, the flow of local residents is more uniformly distributed among border posts when compared with the people living farther away. And this association is from moderate to strong and statistically signif- icant judging from the Cramer’s V of. 306. (see Figure 8. Where you’re from impacts where you cross) LOCAL RESIDENTS CONSUME DIFFERENTLY 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Smilnytsia-Krościenko 388,334 Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów 1,555,258 Krakivets-Korczowa 1,245,601 Shehyni-Medyka 1,261,706 Hrushiv-Budomierz 741,389 Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne 2,305,993 Shehyni-Medyka 2,377,716 Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów 521,881 Krakivets-Korczowa 1,173,977 Hrushiv-Budomierz 662,818 Krakivets-Korczowa 1,630,410 Smilnytsia-Krościenko 161,554 0 50kmfromborderbeyond50km Cramer’s V=.306 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000 POLICY IDEA Better roads to smaller border posts could reveal them to the Ukrainians driving from distant regions
  • 24. 22 Repairing roads to these smaller border posts in part due to funds of the Polish loan could offload some burden from the busiest crossing points. More people living farther from the border would opt for these posts. This would reveal these small border posts for the rest of the country. Other- wise, they would continue to cater for only Figure 9. WHAT BORDER POST YOU CROSS MAY DEPEND ON WHERE YOU GO IF YOU ARE NOT A LOCAL Locals usually go to Poland, so the country choice is far from the decisive in their border post options. It can play a bigger role for people from more distant places. They tend to opt for Krakivets and Shehyni when they travel to a country other than Poland. local needs like shuttle trade that is large- ly frowned upon by officials, activists, and business people residing farther away from the border. We should also spare a thought for this when building new border posts. Their consumer base would be narrow without an infrastructure leading to them. Data source: Kyivstar Cramer’s V=.242 Sig. (2-tailed)=.000 0 100,000 200,000 50,000 25,000 300,000100,000 400,000 150,000 500,000 200,000 600,000 Other countries Poland 38,884 2.4% Smilnytsia-Krościenko 6,501 1.8% Smilnytsia-Krościenko 369,422 22.5% Krakivets-Korczowa 125,952 34.9% Shehyni-Medyka 245,674 14.9% Hrushiv-Budomierz 21,602 6.0% Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne 275,240 16.7% Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne25,567 7.1% Hrushiv-Budomierz 100,662 6.1% Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów 7,875 2.2% Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów 614,944 37.4% Shehyni-Medyka 172,962 48.0% Krakivets-Korczowa CROSSINGS
  • 25. 23 When selecting border posts to cross, the destination country is not the primary driver for locals living within the 50 km from the border. Poland is the main target country for them, as we have seen in the Locals Are Main Clients section.The exact choice of Pol- ish city may play a bigger role but we cannot gauge this effect since mobile operator can see only the foreign country, not the city. The situation is a bit different with Ukrainians from more distant regions (see Figure 9. What border post you cross may depend on where you go if you are not a Shehyni-Medyka is the busiest border post out of the six ones in focus here. It is used by 34 percent of all travellers, both from Ukraine and foreign countries (see Figure 10. Anatomy of border posts).This is the only land point with Poland where you can cross on foot. Moreover, google maps often lead drivers via this border post. ShehyniisclosetoPrzemyśl,aPolishtown, popular among local Ukrainians. They go there to sell alcohol and cigarettes, stock up with foodstuff, and sell it back in Ukraine or just go for shopping there. Moreover, it is an important trade route and key station on the Lviv-Kraków railway route. As a result, it at- tracts more travellers as a good transit point. Other big border posts are Krakivets and Rava Rus’ka. Krakivets is right on the E40 in- ternational route, that is the longest one joining French Calais with Kazakh city Ridder, next to the border with China. Rava-Rus’ka is convenient for those heading towards Lublin and Warsaw. Therefore, it is popular among locals going for shopping to Lublin or those who take a trip from Lublin airport. Moreover, international roads are lead- ing to these three crossing points. Other three border posts, in particular Hrushiv, Uhryniv, and Smilnytsia, are small and used largely by locals.Though here joint control is practiced. As a result, checks are quicker since Ukrainian and Polish officials do them DESTINATION COUNTRY MATTERS SOMETIMES local). Poland still prevails in the choice of country to visit though tto a lesser ex- tent. As a result, there is an association of moderate strength between the country of their choice and the border post. When they opt for Poland, which is most often the case, the options they select are more diverse than if they head for Germany or Czechia, for instance. In the latter case, they focus more on Krakivets crossing point because of the international road here and Shehyni crossing point, an im- portant transit point on the trade route. SHEHYNI IS THE BUSIEST BORDER POST in one place and only once. People struggle to cross the three big crammed points waiting long in queues. In the cases of Shehyni and Krakivets, the issue is a bigger number of those willing to cross the border here than the capacity of these border posts. The capacity of Ra- va-Rus’ka is not fully exploited, instead (see Figure 10). This might be related to the shortage of staff. Therefore, reconstruction of these bor- der posts and adequate staff size would ease the situation. Another possible rem- edy is to offload part of the traffic to the smaller border posts. This could be real when roads leading to them are repaired. Moreover, better roads between the crossing points would allow Ukrainians to reach any closest crossing point with less queue without a mishap that is a far cry from the current situation when drivers virtually scramble through potholes the roads are riddled with. Repairing the road from Mostyska to Krakivets under the Cross-border Cooperation Programme Po- land-Belarus-Ukraine 2014 – 2020 would contribute to this cause.8 The reconstruction of three crossing points and the repairment of five road sections are in part financed by the Polish loan. However, its realization is repeatedly delayed. 8 “Accessible Polish-Ukrainian Border: Joint Road Infrastructure Modernization,”Carpathian Euroregion, http://bit.do/fiK4r
  • 26. Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine POLICY IDEA POLICY IDEA The capacity of Shehyni and Krakivets does not reflect the real pressure on them. The reconstruction is needed. Repairing roads to other border posts could offload some burden from them. Travellers should have a possibility to easily reach out neighbouring crossing points via good highways when a target border post is crammed. The capacity of Rava-Rus’ka is not exploited in full. More staff is needed. Shehyni is the busiest border post out of the six. Other big crossing points are Krakivets and Rava-Rus’ka. Krakivets Shehyni Medyka Korczowa Budomierz SmilnytsiaKrościenko Lviv Hrushiv Uhryniv Rava-Rus’ka Hrebenne Dołhobyczów LVIV REGION VOLYN REGION LUBLIN WOJEWÓDZTWO PODKARPACKIE WOJEWÓDZTWO TERNOPIL REGION Figure 10. ANATOMY OF BORDER POSTS
  • 27. Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine SHEHYNI IS THE BUSIEST BORDER POST CAPACITY V REALITY 1,368,881 6,018,544 4,063,525 3,100,463 1,817,035 1,321,216 Shehyni-Medyka Krakivets-Korczowa Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne Hrushiv-Budomierz Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów Smilnytsia-Krościenko Rava-Rus’ka – Hrebenne Krakivets – Korczowa Shehyni – Medykaactual, 2018 project 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 SHEHYNI AND KRAKIVETS ARE OVERCROWDED WHILE RAVA-RUS’KA’S CAPACITY IS NOT FULLY EXPLOITED.
  • 28. 26 POLICY IDEA Repairing road to Hrushiv border post would make a trip here easier for those who opt for it in lieu of Krakivets. HRUSHIV IS MORE OFTEN USED TO LEAVE IN LIEU OF ENTERING UKRAINE UKRAINIANS: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EXITS AND ENTRIES Data source: State Border Guard of Ukraine. 1,005,005 704,241 Ukrainians left the country entered the country Smilnytsia-Krościenko Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów Krakivets-Korczowa Shehyni-Medyka Hrushiv-Budomierz Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne 200,000-100,000 100,000-200,000 00 300,000 400,000
  • 29. 27 POLICY IDEA Building more lanes for cars and buses on the Ukrainian side should increase the throughput capacity of Krakivets-Korczowa border post. The project is expected to be funded by the Polish loan. FOREIGNERS: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ENTRIES AND EXITS FOREIGNERS LIKE KRAKIVETS TO ENTER UKRAINE BUT LESS TO LEAVE IT Data source: State Border Guard of Ukraine. 187,634 239,967 foreigners left the country foreigners entered the country Smilnytsia-Krościenko Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów Krakivets-Korczowa Shehyni-Medyka Hrushiv-Budomierz Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne 200,000-100,000 100,000-200,000 00 300,000 500,000400,000 600,000
  • 30. 28 Data source: Kyivstar 50 KM FROM BORDER 17% 21% 5% 31% 16% 10% Data source: Kyivstar (NO LONGER) CROSSING ON FOOT IN UHRYNIV Locals cross border in Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów in 21 percent of cases. Since it is on the far north-west of Lviv region, its main consumers are not resident of Sokal district where it is placed but of neighbouring Ivanychi district, Volyn’ region. Living close they could visit Po- land on foot by January 2019 when the pedestrian lane was terminated. POLICY IDEA A possibility to cross border on foot in Rava-Rus’ka would match the needs of local residents who often opt for this border post. Rank District Region Crossings 1 Ivanychi Volyn’ 49,703 2 Sokal Lviv 25,971 Hrushiv-Budomierz Krakivets-Korczowa Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne Smilnytsia-Krościenko Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów Shehyni-Medyka 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Ivanychi Volodymyr- Volyns’kyi Liubomil’ Shats’k Sokal Zhovkva Yavoriv Mostys’ka StaryiSambir Turka districts Volyn’region 5,132 49,703 1,254 506 1,362 385 133 113 54 25,971 districts Lviv region Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów Rava-Rus’ka is the most popular border post among local resident
  • 31. 29 Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine 2018 2019 POLICY IDEA Pedestrian crossing in Uhryniv would serve locals popping to Poland from both Lviv and Volyn’regions. 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY UHRYNIV- DOLHOBYCZOW
  • 32. 30 SMILNYTSIA-KROŚCIENKO BUSTLES WITH FOREIGNERS Smilnytsia became more popular among Poles after the nearby road section from Staryi Sambir to Lviv was repaired. More tour buses opt for it instead of overcrowded Shehyni. Data source: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine POLICY IDEA POLICY IDEA A road section nearby Smilnytsia-Krościenko border post should be repaired un- der the project funded with the Polish loan. Better roads to border posts could boost regional tourism luring more Polish cit- izens and other foreigners. 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Hrushiv-Budomierz 107,789 Krakivets-Korczowa 427,601 Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne 381,123 Smilnytsia-Krościenko 397,081 Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów 124,194 Shehyni-Medyka 735,347
  • 33. 31 Much more Ukrainians opt for Hrushiv to leave Ukraine while much less come back via the this border post. The reason is that the road leading to it is frayed and ruined (see Figure 10. Anatomy of border posts). HRUSHIV IS AN OPTION INSTEAD OF KRAKIVETS DESPITE RUINED ROADS Nevertheless, people go here instead of Krakivets that is more crowded.9,10 Fixing this road would make their trips cosier and lift the burden from Krakivets. The Polish loan covers the expenses. By and large, the inflow and outflow of foreigners – largely Polish citizens - is balanced at all border posts but Krakiv- ets. The number of people who came into Ukraine and left it is more or less similar in Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, Rava-Rus’ka-Hre- benne, Hrushiv-Budomierz, Shehyni-Medy- ka, and Smilnytsia-Krościenko. Meanwhile, about 50,000 of those who got to Krakiv- ets-Korczowa border post opted for other crossing points when leaving (see Figure 10. Anatomy of border posts). The Polish A4 autostrada, a part of the E40 Europe- an route, crosses the entire country from FOREIGNERS LIKE KRAKIVETS FOR ENTRY BUT LESS FOR EXIT German to Ukrainian border. Polish roads to other border posts, though largely in good condition, lack parking and toilets.11 Therefore, Poles opt for this border post more willingly when entering Ukraine. The potential of this border post is nonetheless underused because of poor infrastructure on the Ukrainian side of the border. The IDS-Bud, a Polish company, won a bid for building five more lanes for cars and two more lanes for buses and reconstruct- ing present facilities for trucks.12 The proj- ect is funded by the Polish loan. It should break the logjam at the Ukrainian side. 9 “Road Repair to Hrushiv Will Start This Year,”Vsetut, 21.03.19, http://vsetutpl.com/remont-dorogy-na-grushiv-rozpochnut-vzhe-tsogo-roku 10 As Krakivets is often crowded only on direction to Poland, people still prefer it to bad roads of Hrushiv when coming back. 11 Marta Jaroszewicz and Krzysztof Mrozek,“The Border of Modern Neighborhood. How to Build It: Qualitative Research on the Polish-Ukrainian Border,”draft to be published soon, as of December 2019. 12 “Construction Of Areas For Passenger Vehicles And Buses In The Checkpoint For Road Traffic “Krakivets” And Reconstruction Of The Infrastructure Of The UkrainianPartOfTheExistingCheckpoint“Krakivets”OnTheUkrainian-polishBorder,”OpenTendersOnline,https://www.opentenders.online/tenders/1994597 Source: GoogleMaps
  • 34. 32 Uhryniv is often a choice of local resi- dents. They cross here in 21 percent of cas- es. People could cross it on foot for about three and a half years until it was closed in 2019. The official reasons are poor infra- structure on the Ukrainian side, in particu- lar no lighting, footways, rubbish bins, and parking. People had to walk beside high- way endangering their life and health. As a result, we see a steep drop of crossings via this border post in January 2019 (see Fig- ure 10. Anatomy of border posts). Locals tell that they crossed often to visit relatives or worked nearby.They downgrade the possibility of the shuttle trade. “While Poles buy vodka and cigarettes from Ukrai- nians right at the Shehyni crossing point, the situation is different in Uhryniv.The clos- est Polish shop is 4 kilometres away,” claims a civil society activist from Sokal. It is easier and cheaper for local residents to hop the border on foot. There is no need to fill up the tank and pay for car insurance Projectpicture of the future pedestrian lane in Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne border crossing point Courtesy of Max Nefyodov, facebook post, http://bit.do/fiVVE (NO LONGER) CROSSING ON FOOT IN UHRYNIV or for a bus ticket. Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów crossing point is in Sokal district. It is the farthest northern border post of Lviv region. While local res- ident from Sokal district are quite active consumers, people from neighbouring Ivanychi district of Volyn’ region leapfrog them in the number of crossings. They crossed here twice more often, almost 50,000 times (see Figure 10). The geogra- phy of this border post is wider than of the other ones.“People from Novovolynsk of Ivanychi district rent house near Uhryniv. They cross every day to work at Polish saw- mill nearby. It was easier to get there with the pedestrian lane,”provides an example a local community leader. Other popular crossing points among locals are the three big ones. Shehyni bor- der post is the only one that allows walk- ing through it. Rava-Rus’ka can become the next one with pedestrian lane. It is sup- posed to be financed by the Polish loan.
  • 35. 33 Tour buses from Przemyśl more often opt for border post in Smilnytsia instead of Shehyni, though the latter is much closer. It is much smaller but less busy. Buses cross the border here much faster. Some road sections from this border post to Lviv are still in poor condition. It should be repaired thanks to the Polish Source: Lviv Regional State Administration, “Improving Borderland Road Infrastructure in Lviv Region,”20.03.2019, http://bit.do/fiVCA SMILNYTSIA-KROŚCIENKO BUSTLES WITH FOREIGNERS loan. Meanwhile, a long section from Staryi Sambir to Lviv is improved due to customs experiment when 50 percent of customs revenues exceeding targets went on road repairs.13 This is a reason for this surge of interest to this crossing point among for- eigners (see Figure 10. Anatomy of border posts). 13 Lviv Regional State Administration’s response to public request of Europe Without Barriers, no ОГ-188/ЗПІ, 16.05.19 ROADS REPAIRED DUE TO CUSTOMS EXPERIMENT POLAND UKRAINE Lviv Smilnytsia Staryi Sambir
  • 36. 34 Local residents usually opt for the clos- est border posts in the same district where they live (see Figure 11. Locals: Who cross- es and where). Some districts like Yavoriv has two crossing points which make sense since local residents are the most active consumers of border infrastructure. People But the road from Chervonohrad to Rava-Rus’ka crossing point is fraying. It is important not only for travellers but for local development too. “This road is ca- pable of becoming an impetus for the de- velopment of adjacent villages like Belz or Uhniv,” the Sokal official grumbles. Its repair is supposed to be financed by the Polish loan. But its realization is repeat- edly delayed. Staryi Sambir district’s residents bear the brunt of bad roads to Shehyni since they often cross the border here in lieu of Smilnytsia border post that is in the same district. Firstly, the road leading to Smilnyt- sia is creaking. The Polish loan should cov- er expenses for its repair if implemented. Moreover, you need to drive through twisty mountain roads on the Polish side. On the LOCAL RESIDENTS: WHO CROSSES AND WHERE AND DO THEY NEED NEW BORDER POSTS? from other districts may want to head for neighboring crossing points. For instance, Sokal district’s inhabitants choose neigh- bouring Rava-Rus’ka crossing point instead of Uhryniv when they head for Rzeszów or Kraków. Uhryniv is the option when Lublin is their final destination. one hand, you can enjoy picturesque land- scapes. On the other hand, it takes more time and effort. Shehyni is a good alternative in this re- gard. Meanwhile, it is the busiest road bor- der post in Lviv region. A new small cross- ing point similar to Hrushiv that is planned in Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice could meet the needs of the local resident and handle part of the load on Shehyni-Medyka cross- ing point, instead. There are also projects of creating new border posts in Lopushanka-Michniowiec and Boberka-Smolnik. Both would be in Turka district. However, its residents sel- dom cross the border. People from this dis- trict are less than 1 percent of all local con- sumers. Therefore, a tiny border post here might cater for local needs, if any at all. Kraków Rzeszów Lublin Rava-Ruska Uhryniv Chervonohrad
  • 37. 35 Poland allocated loan amounted to up to EUR 100 m for Ukrainian borderland in 2015.14 It should fund projects in Lviv re- gion, inter alia, to • modernise three crossing points: - reconstruct Shehyni-Medyka border post, - build pedestrian crossing at Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne border post, - build separate lanes for cars and buses at Krakivets-Korczowa border post, • repair roads leading to Smilnytsia-Krościenko, Hrushiv-Budomierz, Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne border posts and a potential future border post in Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice (see Figure 12. Polish money can make difference). It should have financed also renova- tion of seven divisions of Ukrainian border guards. But as of October 2019 no bidder was interested in applying a tender offer. Delivering on these projects would pitch in to meet the pressing needs of the travellers. It would help to deal with the given bottlenecks unveiled by the data in the previous sections. Firstly, it would amend throughput capac- ity of the biggest and busiest border posts POLISH MONEY likeShehyni-MedykaandKrakivets-Korczowa to meet the actual flow of people. Repairing road sections leading to Smilnytsia-Krościenko, Hrushiv-Budo- mierz, and Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne bor- der posts would make trips of local Ukrainian residents heading for this crossing points easier and cosier. What’s more, it could offload burden from the most crammed crossing points. Better infrastructure could boost tour- ism in the region as the example with Smil- nytsia-Krościenko border post shows (see Smilnytsia-Krościenko Bustles With Foreigners section). Polish citizens make tours here. More possibilities to cross on foot and with bike with pedestrian lane in Rava-Rus’ka could further add to the tour- ism potential. It would also serve locals who often opt for this border post. More so, some roads like Chervo- nohrad-Rava-Rus’ka could connect villag- es along them to the rest of the country providing an impetus to local develop- ment. But the launch of the projects to be fund- ed by the Polish loan is repeatedly delayed. At the moment, the major issue is the price change since 2017 and 2018 when the re- lated contracts with Polish private compa- nies were closed. 15 14 Loan Agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of Republic of Poland Conditioned on the Related Assistance, 9.09.2015, revision on 3.12.2018, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/616_196?lang=en 15 Informations received during unofficial discussions with representatives of relevant state offices.
  • 38. Locals mainly opt for the closest border posts. Though residents of Sokal and Staryi Sambir often head for neighbouring crossing points. Besides, people barely hop the border in some districts like Turka. Data source: Kyivstar Cramer’s V = .688 Sig.(2-tailed)=.000 POPULAR BORDER POST: CROSSINGS BY DISTRICT RESIDENTS BORDER POST POPULARITY AMONG DISTRICT RESIDENTS (SHARE, %) VOLYN REGION LUBLIN WOJEWÓDZTWO PODKARPACKIE WOJEWÓDZTWO TERNOPIL REGION Figure 11. LOCALS: WHO CROSSES AND WHERE Korczowa Budomierz Krościenko Mostyska Lviv Hrebenne Dołhobyczów Staryi Sambir Yavoriv Smilnytsia potential border post Malhowice Uhryniv Ivanychi Hrushiv Zhovkva Rava-Rus’ka Medyka 16,423 (30%) 33,119 (61%) % 86,079 (85%) 69,834 (39%) 49,703 (94%) 88,466 (82%) 78,048 (44%) 25,971 (64%) 8,829 (22%) Shehyni 36 Nyzhankovychi Krakivets Sokal’ IVANO- FRANKIVSK REGION ZAKARPATTIA REGION
  • 39. POLICY IDEA The low frequency of crossing the border by Turka district residents when compared to other neigh- bouringdistrictsmaysignalthattinyborderpostsinLopushanka-MichniowiecandBoberka-Smolnikinlieu of the full-fledged ones could cater for local needs, if any. POLICY IDEA A new small border post in Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice would serve people from Staryi Sambir district who opt for Shehyni instead of Smilnytsia crossing point that is in the same district. It could also offload some burden from Shehyni border post that is the most crammed one in Lviv region. A good road leading to the potential crossing point is important to make this happen. POLICY IDEA Improving road from Chervonohrad to Rava-Rus’ka as well as the road to Smilnytsia and from Smilnytsia to Shehyni would make trips of about 14 percent of locals easier and more comfortable. It may also become an impetus for local development. Ivanychi Sokal’ Zhovkva Yavoriv Lviv Staryi Sambir Turka Mostyska Hrushiv – Budomierz Krakivets – Korczowa Rava-Rus’ka – Hrebenne Smilnytsia – Krościenko Uhryniv – Dołhobyczów Shehyni – Medyka Volodymyr-Volynskyi Liuboml’ Shats’k SIX BORDER POSTS: CROSSINGS BY DISTRICT RESIDENTS Uhryniv – Dołhobyczów / Rava – Rus’ka-Hrebenne / Hrushiv – Budomierz / Krakivets – Korczowa / Shehyni – Medyka / Smilnytsia – Krościenko sum 799 0.2% 3,361 0.6% 6,171 1% 52,896 10% 40,568 7% 107,974 20% 177,390 32% 101,034 18% 54,440 10% 4,696 0.9%
  • 40. 38 Polish loan should fund projects of reconstructing three border posts and five road sections leading to border posts. But their launch is repeatedly delayed. Figure 12. POLISH MONEY CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE T-14-04 Chervonohrad – Rava-Rus’ka km 3+137- 56+307 Contractor: DROG-BUD Price: EUR 21.5 m Price: EUR 19.5 m ROADS1 O142001 Yavoriv – Hrushiv km 0+000- km 19+500 Contractor: DROG-BUD Price: EUR 6.9 m ROADS2 T-14-03 Hrushiv – Nemyriv km 3+000 - km 12+691 Contractor: UNIBEP Price: EUR 3.5 m ROADS3 Rava-Rus’ka – Hrebenne construction of pedestrian crossing Contractor: T-4B Price: EUR 1.585 m BORDER POSTS6 T-14-18 Nyzhankovychi – Sambir – Drohobych – Stryi km 0+000-km 46+435 Contractor: DROG-BUD Price: EUR 19.5 m ROADS5 T-14-01 Smilnytsia border post – Staryi Sambir km 14+950- km 17-950 Contractor: DROG-BUD Price: EUR 2.04 m ROADS4 Shehyni – Medyka reconstruction Contractor: UNIBEP Price: EUR 15.72 m BORDER POSTS7 Krakivets – Korczowa construction of areas for cars and buses reconstruction of existing infrastructure Contractor: IDS-Bud Price: EUR 6.945 m BORDER POSTS8
  • 41. 39 Source: Response of Lviv Region Public Administration to public request of Europe without Barriers think tank, no. ЗВГ-ВИХ 1413/0/19, 3.06.2019. Uhryniv Dołhobyczów Hrebenne Rava-Rus’ka Hrushiv Korczowa Medyka lviv Zhovkva Nemyriv Chervonograd Sokal’ Zamosc Tomaszow Lubelski Sambir Drohobych Stryi Nyzhankovychi Staryi Sambir Mostys’ka Yavoriv Smilnytsia Krościenko Budomierz Shehyni Krakivets 6 1 2 3 4 5 7 8
  • 42. 40 Sources:“Reconstruction of the ‘Shehyni’ International Border Checkpoint for Road Traffic on the Ukrainian-Polish Border,” Prozorro Public Procurement, https://prozorro.gov.ua/ten- der/UA-2017-07-07-000596-a; “Construction Of Areas For Passenger Vehicles And Buses In The Checkpoint For Road Traffic “Krakivets” And Reconstruction Of The Infrastructure Of The Ukrainian Part Of The Existing Checkpoint “Krakivets” On The Ukrainian-polish Border,” OpenTenders.Online, https://www.opentenders.online/tenders/1994597; “Construction Of The Pedestrian Crossing In The International Border Checkpoint «Rava-Ruska» On The Ukrainian-polish Border,” Prozorro Public Procurement, https://prozorro.gov.ua/tender/UA- 2018-01-24-000788-b; State Fiscal Service of Ukraine’s response to public request of Europe without Barriers think tank, no. 793/ЗПІ/99-99-18-01-02-15, 22.04.2019. POLICY IDEA Delivering on the projects to be funded by the Polish loan would pitch in to mak- ing some policy ideas in previous sections come true. DAILY CAPACITY OF BUSIEST BORDER POSTS 0 1,000 2,122 2,139 496 88 2,395 494 89 1,900 4,000 250 100 2,000 300 500 40 150 3,000 3,000 3,000 500 1,300 100 60 2,000 3,000 4,000 Krakivets-KorczowaRava-Rus’ka-HrebenneShehyni-Medyka actual, 2018 current project throughput capacity in bidding offer саrsсаrsсаrstruckstruckstrucksbusesbusesbuses 576 101 people
  • 44. 42 The border between Ukraine and Po- land is the busiest one for both countries. Every nine out of ten travellers are Ukrainian citizens. And more than half of them live right next to it. They have their own needs to ca- ter for. They consume it differently than other Ukrainian citizens and have different expectations. We focus here on border posts placed in Lviv region since it hosts six out of eight road crossing points. Local residents hop the border here mainly for work, shopping, or small-scale trade. They are far from be- ing rich. And consider border as an income source. People from distant regions spurn this lifestyle. Yes, border has become the way of living for locals. So, Ukraine limited the number of crossings and the value of goods they can bring back from Poland since 2018. Many locals are ready to change this lifestyle and they know how. Firstly, infra- structure projects like repairing roads barely ridden on by non-local people can open isolated villages and town to the rest of the country relieving their plight. More shops, filling stations, parking would not only make journeys more pleasant for trav- ellers but would bring more revenues to lo- cal budgets. The borderland has an immense tour- ism potential. After Lviv-Staryi Sambir road has been repaired, more tour buses cross at Smilnytsia-Krościenko border post avoiding overcrowded Shehyni. The projects of kayak trails, tours through ancient buildings, natural beau- ties, and sacred places could attract more Polish tourists. They are the main foreign visitors and about third part of them head for the borderland. We have only one border post where you can cross on foot or with bike. It is in Shehyni-Medyka. Meanwhile, more pedes- trian crossings could lure more Polish vis- itors. Biking tours are a new vogue in Poland. Pedestrian crossings are even more im- portant for local residents since they live in short distances from the border posts. But they should not become localised small- scale trade points, a development largely perceived as negative. At the moment, Polish loan will fi- nance building pedestrian crossing at Ra- va-Rus’ka-Hrebenne border post. Uhryniv crossing point has a big potential too. Peo- ple could walk through the border by 2019. Pedestrian crossing was closed because Ukraine had not built crucial infrastructure. People were virtually walking across road- way without street lights that was danger- ous. The border post is in Sokal’district but its geography is much wider. People from neighbouring Ivanychi district of Volyn’ region visited it far more often than Sokal district’s residents. The risk of turning into trading point is downgraded by the fact that the closest shop on the Polish side is 4 km away. Living close to our six border posts lo- cals usually head for the closest one to en- ter Poland. As a result, they wend their way to the three small crossing points in Uhryniv-Dołhobyczów, Hrushiv-Budo- mierz, and Smilnytsia-Krościenko more of- ten than travellers from more distant parts of Ukraine. Better access to these small entry-exit points could offload the bur- den from the three big and overcrowd- ed places in Shehyni-Medyka, Krakiv- ets-Korczowa, and Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne. Pothole-free roads is key for drivers to make it to these small crossing points. It is important that you can reach the bor- der post itself. But also it should be easy to drive from a crammed crossing point in case you are stuck there to a neighbour- ing one that may happen to be free. Many people opt for Hrushiv in lieu of Krakivets even now despite the roads. Though such a journey is all but a pleasure. It is at the three small crossing points where the joint control is applied. It makes the checks faster since Ukrainian and Polish officials do them in one placeand only once. Atthesametime,thepotentialofbigbor- der posts is not fully used. Foreigners - large- ly Polish citizens – who tear along the high- way to Krakivets-Korczowa crossing point entering Ukraine reluctantly come back via this border post. More lanes are needed for cars and buses on the Ukrainian side. Rava-Rus’ka-Hrebenne crossing point,
  • 45. 43 in turn, suffers from understaffing. The of- ficers grapple with the flows but they can- not handle them. A good road to this bor- der post from Chervonohrad would make trip easier for about 20 percent of local res- idents from Sokal district often heading for Rzeszów or Kraków. Shehyni-Medyka is the oldest border post and the busiest out of all six ones. So it is thirst for a full reconstruction. There are ideas of new border posts like Nyzhankovychi-Malhowice, Lopushan- ka-Michniowiec, and Boberka-Smolnik. They are discussed in media and support- ed by Lviv regional authorities.16 The new crossing points could take some flows of people on themselves. Nyzhanjovy- chi-Malhowice could cater for the needs of people who now cross at Shehyni crossing point, the busiest one, for instance. Meanwhile, Lopushanka-Michniowiec and Boberka-Smolnik in Turkiv district would serve less than one percent of peo- ple living in borderland. A tiny border post might be enough here, if any at all. Some of these bottlenecks could be re- solved with the Polish loan. It should help to modernise three big border posts and repair roads to some smaller ones. But it is repeatedly delayed. “Polish citizens laugh, they joyfully cross the border while we are kept waiting,” says Mostyska-based museum director. People are kept waiting hours at the border, and they see it as a discrimination. Not in a legal sense but more as a perception. So, delivering on needs of travellers and resolving major bottlenecks would not just make their journey more comfortable and faster and streamline the flows of people but would have an impact on the perception of discrimination too. 16 Response by the Lviv Regional State Administration on the public request of the Europe without Barriers think tank of 12.02.2019.
  • 46. 44 FIGURES PART 1. BIG DATA AND BORDER Figure 1. CROSSING UKRAINIAN-POLISH BORDER Figure 2. WHICH BORDER POSTS AND WHY Figure 3. WHY MOBILE DATA Figure 4. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN DATA: ARE THEY REAL? Figure 5. TELECOM DATA REFLECTS REALITY, WE HAVE THE GROUNDS TO THINK SO PART 2. WHO CROSSES THE BORDER AND WHERE THEY GO Figure 6. BORDER CLIENTS Figure 7. POLES ARE MAIN VISITORs PART 3. CLOSER LOOK AT BORDER POSTS Figure 8. WHERE YOU’RE FROM IMPACTS WHERE YOU CROSS Figure 9. WHAT BORDER POST YOU CROSS MAY DEPEND ON WHERE YOU GO IF YOU ARE NOT A LOCAL Figure 10. ANATOMY OF BORDER POSTS Figure 11. LOCALS: WHO CROSSES AND WHERE Figure 12. POLISH MONEY CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE 02 03 04 06 08 09 11 12 16 20 21 22 24 36 38