EPA-HSE Environment Health and Well Being Annual Conference 2018

1. Prof. Michael DepledgeProf. Michael Depledge CBE DSc FRCPCBE DSc FRCP
Global Megatrends for Environment,Global Megatrends for Environment,
Health and Wellbeing ResearchHealth and Wellbeing Research
What might happen in the futureWhat might happen in the future
and can we change it?and can we change it?

2. Is this our future?Is this our future?

3. Or is it this?Or is it this?
Severe Winter 2017/18Severe Winter 2017/18

4. Is it climate change?Is it climate change?

5. Guardian Graphics, IPCCGuardian Graphics, IPCC.
Trends in risk with rising temperaturesTrends in risk with rising temperatures

6. Climate change, disease and pharmaceuticalsClimate change, disease and pharmaceuticals
West Nile VirusWest Nile Virus
Lyme DiseaseLyme DiseaseMalariaMalaria

7. New disease trendsNew disease trends
West Nile Virus in Europe - 2018West Nile Virus in Europe - 2018

8. Culex modestusCulex modestus transmits West Nile virus – now found in the Thamestransmits West Nile virus – now found in the Thames
Estuary, the first new discovery of the insects since 2016Estuary, the first new discovery of the insects since 2016
Appearance in BritainAppearance in Britain

9. Unexpected consequences of Climate ChangeUnexpected consequences of Climate Change
• ““Wholesale vegetable priced jumped between March and July,Wholesale vegetable priced jumped between March and July,
with onion prices up 41%, carrots by 80%, and wheat for bread by 20%with onion prices up 41%, carrots by 80%, and wheat for bread by 20%
• Farm gate price of butter up by 24% since March, as hot weatherFarm gate price of butter up by 24% since March, as hot weather
hampered grass growth for grazing.hampered grass growth for grazing.
• Meat prices are set to rise due to a shortage of livestock feed”.Meat prices are set to rise due to a shortage of livestock feed”.
Food prices 'to rise 5%' because
of extreme weather 27 August 2018

10. Its not just climate change…..Its not just climate change…..

11. MicroplasticsMicroplastics and chemical pollutants…..and chemical pollutants…..
PCBPCB
PCBPCB
PCBPCB
PCBPCB
PCBPCB
PCBPCB
Cd
Cd
Cd
Cd
Cd
CdCd
Antibiotic
Antibiotic Antibiotic
Antibiotic
Antibiotic
Antibiotic
PesticidePesticide
PesticidePesticide
PesticidePesticide
PesticidePesticide
PesticidePesticide
PesticidePesticide
PesticidePesticide
NanoparticleNanoparticle
NanoparticleNanoparticle NanoparticleNanoparticle
NanoparticleNanoparticle
NanoparticleNanoparticle
PAH
PAH
PAH
PAH
PAH
PAH
PAH
PAH
PAH
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
BRFBRF
Dioxins
Dioxins
Dioxins
Dioxins
Dioxins
Dioxins
> 80,000 “invisible”chemicals

12. Trends in global chemicals productionTrends in global chemicals production
(Worth ~ $3 trillion)
Global plastic production was ca. 335 million metric tons in 2017 ($1.06 trillion)
50 fold increase since 1950 – to triple again by 2050.50 fold increase since 1950 – to triple again by 2050.

13. Mercury poisoning
Arsenic poisoning
Pesticide poisoning
Dioxin poisoning
Air (chemical) pollution
Pharmaceutical Pollution
Is exposure to chemicals changing patterns of disease?Is exposure to chemicals changing patterns of disease?

14. Gaze, W. & Depledge, M.H. (2018)
Trends in Anti-Microbial Resistance in the EnvironmentTrends in Anti-Microbial Resistance in the Environment

15. Deaths attributable to antimicrobialDeaths attributable to antimicrobial resistanceresistance every year by 2050every year by 2050

16. • 60% of mammals lost60% of mammals lost
since 1970.since 1970.
• Progressive deforestationProgressive deforestation..
• Threatened soilsThreatened soils
Trends in Biodiversity LossTrends in Biodiversity Loss

17. Different kinds of MegatrendsDifferent kinds of Megatrends
• Environmental megatrendsEnvironmental megatrends
• Societal megatrendsSocietal megatrends
• Those that will definitely proceedThose that will definitely proceed
• Those that might proceed, butThose that might proceed, but
can be redirected.can be redirected.
Timescales and interactions?Timescales and interactions?
Ocean AcidificationOcean Acidification
Electric car useElectric car use
CFC useCFC use
Living Planet IndexLiving Planet Index

18. Global Population ScenariosGlobal Population Scenarios
Chance ofChance of
reaching 100yrsreaching 100yrs
1914 - 1%
2007 - 50%
Mortality rateMortality rate
65yr old in 192265yr old in 1922
= 78yr old today= 78yr old today

19. Which countries will most influence megatrends?Which countries will most influence megatrends?

20. Trends and Choices…..Trends and Choices…..

21. ““When did the future switch fromWhen did the future switch from
being a promise to being a threat?”being a promise to being a threat?”
Chuck Palahniuk
Novelist

22. Dismantling Pessimism!Dismantling Pessimism!
• Population sizePopulation size
• Climate changeClimate change
• Biodiversity lossBiodiversity loss
• Chemical PollutionChemical Pollution
• Food securityFood security
• Water securityWater security
• InequalityInequality
We know how to tackle them all!We know how to tackle them all!

23. Trends in Renewable Energy GenerationTrends in Renewable Energy Generation

24. Lifestyle changes and technological options…..Lifestyle changes and technological options…..
Greenhouse Gas
Removal

25. http://market-analysis.conferenceseries.com/wastemanagement-asiapacific-market-reports
Trends in RecyclingTrends in Recycling

26. Trends in sustainable use of chemicals: 8 actionsTrends in sustainable use of chemicals: 8 actions
1.1. Further reduce the release of chemicals into the environment.Further reduce the release of chemicals into the environment.
2.2. Increase recycling.Increase recycling.
3.3. Prohibit use of chemicals that persist and bioaccumulate.Prohibit use of chemicals that persist and bioaccumulate.
4.4. Employ innovative green chemistry to manufacture more Employ innovative green chemistry to manufacture more
environmentally-friendly chemicals.environmentally-friendly chemicals.
5.5. Deploy more robust, “intelligent” environmental chemical and Deploy more robust, “intelligent” environmental chemical and
biological monitoring.biological monitoring.
6.6. Demonstrate transparently to the public that those who pollute Demonstrate transparently to the public that those who pollute
bear the FULL costs of clean up. bear the FULL costs of clean up.
7.7. Ensure transparent and robust environmental risk assessments Ensure transparent and robust environmental risk assessments
are conducted before any new chemical is used. (not short term are conducted before any new chemical is used. (not short term
cost-benefit analysis)cost-benefit analysis)
8.8. Assist the public (and especially children) in becoming informed Assist the public (and especially children) in becoming informed
about risks and opportunities associated with chemical use.about risks and opportunities associated with chemical use.
Depledge et al, 2018 (in press)

27. Trends in freshwater production by desalinationTrends in freshwater production by desalination
Growth in world water production from seawater desalination. Source: desaldata.com

28. Trends in Aquaculture ProductionTrends in Aquaculture Production
Fisheries produced ca. 160 million tons of fish (ca. 16 percent of animalFisheries produced ca. 160 million tons of fish (ca. 16 percent of animal
protein consumed globally).protein consumed globally).

29. Trends in Health & Wellbeing from the EnvironmentTrends in Health & Wellbeing from the Environment

30. Hi Tech FarmingHi Tech Farming

31. GGenetics
RRobotics
IInternet
NNanotechnology
MEGATRENDS IN RELATION TO FOOD

32. 19001900
19131913
Technological TransformationTechnological Transformation
2018
2030

33. Transforming what we do and how we do it….Transforming what we do and how we do it….
…...with consequences for the environment and our health
• AlgorithmsAlgorithms
((a process or set of rules to bea process or set of rules to be
followed in calculations orfollowed in calculations or
other problem-solving operations)other problem-solving operations)
• Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence

34. A step change in forecasting and predictionA step change in forecasting and prediction
Implications for the environment and health?Implications for the environment and health?

35. Will megatrends be realised?
• Electric vehicles ?Electric vehicles ?
• Reduction in disease?Reduction in disease?
• Chemical recycling?Chemical recycling?
• Re-wilding?Re-wilding?
• Widely used AI?Widely used AI?

36. From Global to LocalFrom Global to Local
PlanetaryPlanetary
HealthHealth
Local impactLocal impact
onon
real livesreal lives

37. Interpreting Global MegatrendsInterpreting Global Megatrends
Future EnvironmentsFuture Environments
Future Human Societies

38. Beneficial trends in behaviour changeBeneficial trends in behaviour change
Are we ready for change?Are we ready for change?
Are barriers to change likely to be removed?Are barriers to change likely to be removed?
m.depledge@exeter.ac.ukm.depledge@exeter.ac.uk

39. m.depledge@exeter.ac.ukm.depledge@exeter.ac.uk
““Nothing in all the World is more dangerous thanNothing in all the World is more dangerous than
sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity……”sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity……”
Dr Martin Luther King JnrDr Martin Luther King Jnr
Increasing awareness facilitates action!