The Global Europe 2050 presents and quantifies three scenarios that identify the main pathways Europe could follow in the coming decades: • the Nobody cares scenario where Europe is in a ‘muddling through’ process; • the EU under threat where Europe is faced by an economic decline and protectionist reactions; • the European Renaissance where the EU continues to enlarge and become stronger with more efficient innovation systems.

1. L’Europe en 2050
Quel mode de vie?
Domenico ROSSETTI
Commission européenne, DG RTD*
Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero@ec.europa.eu
* S’exprimant à titre personnel
Collège Belgique
Académie royale des Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux-Arts
Bruxelles, 28 mars 2012

2. A blurring world
Public - Private sectors
Professional - Private life
Manufacturing – Services
Faith - Reason
Source: D. Rossetti

3. Society and Science
Man – Technology & Humanities – Engineering
Design of a car - Efficiency of the combustion engine
Social habits - Technological developments
Airplane service on board - Online reservation
But scientist is more and more engaged in
societal and ethical debate (DNA, GMO,
nuclear)
Source: D. Rossetti

4. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html

5. Forward-looking methodologies
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T
(B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

6. Forward-looking methodologies
Source: The Power of Science, D. Rossetti

7. EU strategic and long-term policies
“Europe 2020 Strategy”
A Budget for Europe 2020 (MFF)
Horizon 2020, the future FP for R&I
Rio+20: towards the green economy and better
governance
Roadmaps for low carbon economy, for transport
and for energy in 2050
Source: European Commission

8. Demographicchanges

9. World (ageing) population
Source: UN, EC, DG RTD, VLEEM (B. Chateau)

10. Regional population (Millions)
Source: UN, EC, DG RTD,
WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

11. Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en Europe,
mais certains ne le savent pas
Paul-Henri Spaak

12. European population
Source: UN Population statistics and DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)
The EU working
population will be less
than 35% by 2050
EU health exp.: from
8% of GDP today to
~12% in 2050
The "oldest old" (85 and
over) will almost triple

13. Migrations
Per year, ~1.5 million of third countries
people are entering the EU
20% of the EU population will be
Muslim by 2050
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050

14. Economicchanges

15. World and EU GDP (2010 and 2050)
Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)

16. World and EU GDP (2010 and 2050)
Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)

17. Brazil's foreign trade in agro-food
B$
Source: CEPII-CHELEM, 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1967 1977 1988 1996 1997 1999 2000 2004 2008 2009
Export
Import

18. Share of the world production
of electronic products
Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)

19. “Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and
strengthen the role as one of the main global
actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant
outgrowth on the Asian continent”
Gonzalez report “Europe 2030”

20. Tensionson
naturalresources

21. Source: NASA and WWF
RURAL
63%
RBAN
37%
RURAL
53%
RURAL
40%
Climate change observation
The melting of
ice caps in the
Arctic and
Greenland

22. Urbanisation rate and megacities
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T
(B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)
UN-Habitat
23 M inh.New Delhi
25 M inh.Seoul
Tokyo 34 M inh.
Sao Paolo 21 M inh.

23. Source: EC; DG RTD (image from L. Schuiten)

24. Increasing of tensions
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025
Water (3 billion people missing water by 2030)
Food (70% increase by 2050)
Land (war on lands)
Materials (lithium, gallium, scandium,…)
Energy

25. EU energy imports
Source: EC, Eurostat and DG Energy

26. Oil reserves in the hands of
national companies (in billion barrels)
Source: The Wall Street Journal, 22/5/2010
99Venezuela National Oil company
136Iranian National Oil Company
260Saoudi Oil Company
8Exxon Mobil

27. “L’Europe est l’idiot du village global”
Hubert Védrine

28. Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)
The potential for savings
Source: European Commission, DG ENER,
EU energy Roadmap 2050
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Range regarding
decarbonisation
scenarios
Range for current
trends scenarios

29. Energy by 2100
Energy used for food will double
Energy for thermal comfort and living-space
heating and cooling will triple
Energy for mobility will increase by a factor 5
Energy for self-fulfilment will increase most
Source: EC, DG RTD , WETO-T (B. Chateau & D. Rossetti)

31. Lifestyles,values
andattitudes

32. 6
10
5
10
4
10
3
10
2
10
1
10
Oral communication
through language
Picture and symbol
communication
Writing
Book printing
Mass education
Mass media
Total
interconnectivity
Years ago
Human societies
and information
Source: EC, DG RTD, FARHORIZON
(V. Van Rij)

33. Unsustainable lifestyle trends
World meat consumption has been multiplied by 5 since
1960
Final consumption of food and drink, private
transportation and housing lead to almost 80% of
Europe’s environmental impacts
Residential sector accounts for 40% of Europe’s total
energy consumption (with almost 70% for H&C)
Car ownership in the EU increased by 35% between 1990
and 2007. EU-drivers own over one third of the world’s
750 million automobiles
Source: EC, DG RTD, SPREAD and D. Rossetti

34. Socio-economic habits
Source: Google images

35. Energy and transport
T im e
T ran sp ort en ergy
p er in h ab itan t
A verage sp eed s
T im e in
tran sp ort p er
p erson
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, VLEEM (B. Chateau)

36. Human behaviour
Source: Google images

37. World electricity and wealth –
The decoupling challenge
Source: IEA

38. Doubling of world energy demand and greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 in most of the scenarios
“Malthus’ revenge” - Replacing “population” with
“consumption” in the quote: “the power of population is
so superior to the power of the earth to produce
subsistence for man, that premature death must in
some shape or other visit the human race”
Malthus revenge
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-H2 and Luc Soete

39. Price
Source: Energy-future.com
€ 30-150 € 150-350 € 200,000-300,000

40. Overweight rates
Source: OECD, 2010

41. Food loss and wastage
Source: FAO, Global Food losses and Food Waste, 2011
Kg/
c/y

42. Drinking water
Bread, pasta, rice, couscous,
fruits, vegetables
Every main
meal
Every day Dairies (pref. low fat), olive oil,
herbs, seeds, garlic, onions
Weekly Poultry, fish/
seafood, eggs
Sweets
Meat
Modern Med. diet
Adults (18-65 years)
Physical activity Conviviality SeasonaPhysical activity Conviviality Seasonality Local productslity Local products
Source: 3° Int. CIISCAM Conf., Parma, Italy, 2009

43. Time used for food and information
(2000-2100)
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T
(B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)
Hours/day/pers
Information index

44. Time
2 hours
Source: Google image

45. Time use structure worldwide up to 2100
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T
(B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)

46. Risk size
Time
Traditional risksTraditional risks
Modern risksModern risks
Tobacco
Physical inactivity
Obesity
Urban air quality
Road traffic safety
Occupational risk
Undernutrition
Indoor air pollution
Water, sanitation
and hygiene
The risk transition
Source: WHO, 2009

47. Model(s)ofdevelopment

48. Sustainable development
European Council Conclusions (1-2 March 2012)
underlined the strong support for an ambitious outcome
at the Rio+20 UN Conference on SD that should:
Advance the global transition towards a green economy (envir.
protection, poverty eradication, resource-efficient growth)
Work towards clear operational targets at national and
international level within agreed time frames
Advance the work on global post-2015 goals for sustainable
development, incl. Millennium Development Goals
Source: European Council, 2012

49. European socio-economic models
Source: European Commission, DG RTD,
ICATSEM (G. Jackson)
Bank-
oriented
Bank-
oriented
Market-
oriented
Finance
Highly
regulated
towards
dereg.
State-
dominated
State-
based
CorporatismStakeholder-
oriented
Rhenan
Highly
regulated
towards
dereg.
ConservativeState-
based
ConflictarianInsider-
dominated
Mediter
ranean
Dereg. but
promotion
of R&D
LiberalMarket-
based
Pluralism -
Voluntarism
Shareholder-
oriented
Anglo-
Saxon
Industrial
policy
Welfare
State
Educ. &
training
Industrial
relations
Corporate
governance

50. Is the (Asian) State capitalism taking over the
Western socio-economic models?
Are the three types of EU welfare states –
combining family, market and state –
adapted to the future?
Source: D. Rossetti and ICATSEM

51. Welfare, Work and Wealth
Systemic Industrial / Innovation Policy
Fitting to the competitive advantages of each region
Pushed by globalisation
Pulled by challenges and vision for Europe 2020 -
“Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, WWWforEurope (K. Aiginger)

52. Conclusions

53. Some risks
Perception that the “costs of non-Europe” are too
low to the richer MS and that the “costs of
Europe” are too high to the weakest MS
Euroscepticism and thinking that a Member State
alone can play a significant role in the world
Standardization and harmonization (vs. personal
values, creativity, imagination, emotion)
NIMBY (Not in my backyard) and BANANA (Build
absolutely nothing, anywhere, near anybody)
Source: D. Rossetti

54. A new European model of development
Towards the socio-ecological transition?
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025

55. Social innovations
Beyond scientific and technological innovation
New collaborative consumption (sharing,
swapping,…) - from ownership to access to goods
and services
Sustainable ways of using products and services:
Efficient living (wasting less)
Different living (quality vs. quantity)
New approaches to sustainable mobility options
(eco-towns, sustainable city initiatives)
Source: EC, DG RTD, SPREAD and D. Rossetti

56. Cities of the future
Growing city:
From sprawl to intensity
Open city:
From patchwork to mosaic
Smart city:
From exploitation to efficiency
Civic city:
From marketization to new governance
Source: EP, IBA Hamburg, HafenCity Hamburg

57. Paradigm shifts
Policy: beyond voting
Energy: beyond oil
Economy: beyond GDP
Lifestyle: beyond tangibles
Source: EC, DG RTD, PASHMINA (A. Ricci and C. Sessa)

58. Nella battaglia per l’unità europea
ci vuole una concentrazione
di pensiero e di volontà
per cogliere le occasioni,
per affrontare le disfatte,
per decidere di continuare
Altiero Spinelli