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FutureConsumersand InternetRoope MokkaDemos HelsinkiThis presentation includes materialfrom:Sustainable lifestyle 2050 -tu...
What important newkind of internet usersdo you foresee?Why are theyimportant?
The universe ismade of stories,not atoms.Muriel Rukeyser
Do future consumers look like this?
Or this?
Or this?
Or this?
What is the storyof the internet?
The story of liberationand coming togetherwithout gatekeepers1968-2008
The story ofsegregated people,dumming services, runby oligopolies, leavingthe world cyber-balkanized.2008-2012
The storyof new revolutions.2012-Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution”Social tech waiting for its public / civic revo...
Internet is dead
Source: Wired
four new stories - narrative trends1.   The   age   surplus2.   The   age   of meaning3.   The   age   of africa4.   The  ...
four new stories - narrative trends1. The age surplus
There will befundamental shifts inuse of time
time = the mostfundamental resource inthe information age.
The most disruptivetechnology  known  to managriculture employs    before 70%     after 10%
In the next ten years time the global employment  market will have 1.3 billion under 30 year olds.     Unemployment can hi...
who makes the iPad?
Foxconn makes the iPadFoxconn makes electronic products for many global brands, including the iPhone andthe iPad. It is th...
Foxconn announced plans to increase the automation in its Chinese plants. Ithas about 10,000 industrial robots now but int...
Also cognitive taskscan be brokendown, industrializedand outsourced.
deep automation. automation of services.When farm jobs disappeared, we still had manufacturing jobs,and when these disappe...
the whole world will be old until you die.
almost the whole world will be old until you die.
= an unforeseensurplus of”free”time.
"Whats hard to explain is    how, in the space of a    generation, watching television became a part- time job for every c...
four new stories - narrative trends2. The age of meaning
There will befundamental shift fromexperience to ability toact differently
Money MeMarkets          Howard Gardner offer
Excellence  EthicsEngamement              Howard Gardner  demand
User experience=Behaviour change
Why the shift?I.e. who do we trust?                   34
The elites?
”parties have distanced fromthe lives of people” 78%         EVAn arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2011: “Maailman paras maa”      ...
Q: Is work central to your life?The younger one is the less central is work   Eva 2010                                    ...
45%           41%           37%           33%           29%                 1980                 1990            2000   20...
”...consumer trust in brandshas declined by 50%in a decade,down from 52% to 25%.”      Brands?
techies             cyclists                                                   PyöräilijätIt’s a Peer Coup, Baby! Piraatit...
Peer Coupin a FilterBubble?Internet has become”a web of one”Algorhytms predict whatwe want by what we wanted.Result = we w...
Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 %Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 %                                        Growing:  ...
How are consumerbrands reacting?
New megabrands         Behaviourare based on           changegiving us an abilityto act in a newunique feeling         Not...
who can?New megabrands         I can   we can?are based ongiving us an ability           who is we?to act in a newunique f...
four new stories - narrative trends3. The age of africa
Depicts 426,000 cell phones, equal to the numberof cell phones retired in the US every day.Globally the total number per y...
They end up in ”afrika”(= young, urban, growing, developing, informal,ungoverned, low-high-tech)
They end up in ”afrika”(= young, urban, growing, developing, informal,ungoverned, low-high-tech)                          ...
the whole world will be old until you die.not in africa though.
What does african consumer productinnovation look like?
four new stories - narrative trends4. The age of real internet
Amount of users
GDP
Number of cars
iPhones
Animal protein consumption
TEDx’s seminars
Consumption of energy
Airmiles
Animal protein consumption
Base-stations
Solar panels installed base
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions                You are here
CO2 emissions
1968   1990   2010   2030   2050
1968   1990   2010   2030   2050
1968   1990   2010   2030   2050
a historic change1968   1990      2010         2030   2050
a historic change1968   1990      2010         2030   2050
a historic change                   ??                   ? ?                   ?? ?                      ? ??             ...
Cr lt             Pho spo u ivate                            d lan                                 d         r       pe   ...
Le        ng          ht             o  f li                       ve             W              ea                    lth...
GROWTH   vs.   BELL CURVE
arvittavista kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähennyksistä.  What changes the most?        Asuminen      Liikkuminen           Ru...
The story of two newrevolutions.2012-
The storyof new revolutions.2012-Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution”Social tech waiting for its public / civic revo...
Green tech waiting for thePC- revolution"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer","There is no...
Green tech waiting for thePC- revolution"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer","There is no...
Green tech waiting for thePC- revolution"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer","There is no...
What are the services thatenable us to live in a newway in a resource strungworld?                 technology does not tou...
Social tech waiting for thepublic / civic revolution                  technology does not touch                  people.
The universe ismade of stories,not atoms.Muriel Rukeyser
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
Future Consumers & Internet -  Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum
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Future Consumers & Internet - Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum

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Roope Mokka's presentation on human centric megatrends – narritive structures that move the world – for Aalto Universty's Telecom Forum. Find the video (60 min) of the lecture here: http://ecmedia.fi/a/tcf_2011/11_10_2011/tcf_11_10_2011osa1.wmv
http://ecmedia.fi/a/tcf_2011/11_10_2011/tcf_11_10_2011osa2.wmv

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Future Consumers & Internet - Roope Mokka @ Telecom Forum

  1. 1. FutureConsumersand InternetRoope MokkaDemos HelsinkiThis presentation includes materialfrom:Sustainable lifestyle 2050 -tutkimusMaabrändityöOlimme kuluttajia -skenaariotyö,Sitra energia-ohjelman tutkimus,Peloton tuotekehitysLow2No esseetMetropolialueen kilpailukyky,Valtioneuvoston kanslian tulevaisuusselonteko,Helsingin Energia - seuraavat 50 vuotta skenaariot.Greater Helsinki Vision työ (2. Palkinto)Allianz / Markku Wilenius -yhteistyöPartners include:Fazer -konsernin johtoryhmäHelsingin Energian johtoryhmä,Valtioneuvoston kanslia,Sitran energiaohjelma,Ympäristöklusteriohjelma,Espoon Kaupungin johtoryhmä,Peloton yhteistyökumppanit:Bonnier, K-Ryhmä, S-Ryhmä, Sitra, Starkki, Puukeskus, A-Lehdet, Sub (TV),Fazer Amica, MEK, Stora-Enso, Anton & Anton, Pöyry, Stockmann, Aalto,Ilmastotalkoot yhteistyökumppanitSek, Bob Helsinki, PHS, N2, Speakers Forum, Hill&Knowlton, Drum, Avalon, VR,Taitomylly,Luennointi:TEDx Amazonia, Rautakirja Consumer Day, IBM Software Day, YLEPäällikköpäivä, IIR Kuluttajatrendit 2010, Lappeenranta Summit, Helsingin Energia 1100 Vuotisjuhlat, Aalto-yliopisto, Sosiaali- ja terveysalan keskusliitto, Vanhus- jalähimmäishoidon liitto, Ortodoksinen kirkko, Kokoomuksen puoluevaltuusto,Keskustan puoluekokous, Oranssi ry:n Valvomo-julkistus, OpetusministeriöKoulutus 2030 seminaari, Tallinnan taideakatemia, Metsäteollisuus ry,
  2. 2. What important newkind of internet usersdo you foresee?Why are theyimportant?
  3. 3. The universe ismade of stories,not atoms.Muriel Rukeyser
  4. 4. Do future consumers look like this?
  5. 5. Or this?
  6. 6. Or this?
  7. 7. Or this?
  8. 8. What is the storyof the internet?
  9. 9. The story of liberationand coming togetherwithout gatekeepers1968-2008
  10. 10. The story ofsegregated people,dumming services, runby oligopolies, leavingthe world cyber-balkanized.2008-2012
  11. 11. The storyof new revolutions.2012-Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution”Social tech waiting for its public / civic revolution
  12. 12. Internet is dead
  13. 13. Source: Wired
  14. 14. four new stories - narrative trends1. The age surplus2. The age of meaning3. The age of africa4. The age of real internet
  15. 15. four new stories - narrative trends1. The age surplus
  16. 16. There will befundamental shifts inuse of time
  17. 17. time = the mostfundamental resource inthe information age.
  18. 18. The most disruptivetechnology known to managriculture employs before 70% after 10%
  19. 19. In the next ten years time the global employment market will have 1.3 billion under 30 year olds. Unemployment can hit the billion mark.
  20. 20. who makes the iPad?
  21. 21. Foxconn makes the iPadFoxconn makes electronic products for many global brands, including the iPhone andthe iPad. It is the largest exporter in Greater China and the second largestexporter in the Czech Republic. However, despite its scale, Foxconn is still underpressure to minimise unit costs in order to maintain profitability. Recently it hasbegun relocating factories to lower-cost locations in China. (IMS Research.)
  22. 22. Foxconn announced plans to increase the automation in its Chinese plants. Ithas about 10,000 industrial robots now but intends to have 300,000 in place bythe end of 2012 and to have one million in place by the end of 2013. (IMSResearch.) A million robots make the iPad
  23. 23. Also cognitive taskscan be brokendown, industrializedand outsourced.
  24. 24. deep automation. automation of services.When farm jobs disappeared, we still had manufacturing jobs,and when these disappeared we migrated to service jobs. McKinsey Quarterly, W. Brian Arthur ... some cognitive tasks can be automated.
  25. 25. the whole world will be old until you die.
  26. 26. almost the whole world will be old until you die.
  27. 27. = an unforeseensurplus of”free”time.
  28. 28. "Whats hard to explain is how, in the space of a generation, watching television became a part- time job for every citizenin the developed world … Americans watch roughlytwo hundred billion hours of TV every year. That represents about twothousand Wikipedias projects worth of free time annually"Two thousandWikipedias projects = more”content” than possible to ”consume”
  29. 29. four new stories - narrative trends2. The age of meaning
  30. 30. There will befundamental shift fromexperience to ability toact differently
  31. 31. Money MeMarkets Howard Gardner offer
  32. 32. Excellence EthicsEngamement Howard Gardner demand
  33. 33. User experience=Behaviour change
  34. 34. Why the shift?I.e. who do we trust? 34
  35. 35. The elites?
  36. 36. ”parties have distanced fromthe lives of people” 78% EVAn arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2011: “Maailman paras maa” Politicians?
  37. 37. Q: Is work central to your life?The younger one is the less central is work Eva 2010 Work?
  38. 38. 45% 41% 37% 33% 29% 1980 1990 2000 2008Share of single person households % (Tilastokeskus) Family?
  39. 39. ”...consumer trust in brandshas declined by 50%in a decade,down from 52% to 25%.” Brands?
  40. 40. techies cyclists PyöräilijätIt’s a Peer Coup, Baby! Piraatit you name it... Persutsome- veganspeople prekariat Wii-players
  41. 41. Peer Coupin a FilterBubble?Internet has become”a web of one”Algorhytms predict whatwe want by what we wanted.Result = we will only seethings we alreadyknew/liked/agreeSocial Segregation.
  42. 42. Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 %Under 30’s party support 1996-2010 % Growing: ”Tea Party” ”Urban elitists”
  43. 43. How are consumerbrands reacting?
  44. 44. New megabrands Behaviourare based on changegiving us an abilityto act in a newunique feeling Not justway: iPad, Google, experience andFacebook. brand differentations
  45. 45. who can?New megabrands I can we can?are based ongiving us an ability who is we?to act in a newunique feeling Wowway: iPad, Google,Facebook.
  46. 46. four new stories - narrative trends3. The age of africa
  47. 47. Depicts 426,000 cell phones, equal to the numberof cell phones retired in the US every day.Globally the total number per year = 1000 000 000
  48. 48. They end up in ”afrika”(= young, urban, growing, developing, informal,ungoverned, low-high-tech)
  49. 49. They end up in ”afrika”(= young, urban, growing, developing, informal,ungoverned, low-high-tech) 2.
  50. 50. the whole world will be old until you die.not in africa though.
  51. 51. What does african consumer productinnovation look like?
  52. 52. four new stories - narrative trends4. The age of real internet
  53. 53. Amount of users
  54. 54. GDP
  55. 55. Number of cars
  56. 56. iPhones
  57. 57. Animal protein consumption
  58. 58. TEDx’s seminars
  59. 59. Consumption of energy
  60. 60. Airmiles
  61. 61. Animal protein consumption
  62. 62. Base-stations
  63. 63. Solar panels installed base
  64. 64. CO2 emissions
  65. 65. CO2 emissions You are here
  66. 66. CO2 emissions
  67. 67. 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  68. 68. 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  69. 69. 1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  70. 70. a historic change1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  71. 71. a historic change1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  72. 72. a historic change ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?1968 1990 2010 2030 2050
  73. 73. Cr lt Pho spo u ivate d lan d r pe opl WOi C ate Na r tur gas al
  74. 74. Le ng ht o f li ve W ea lth I n nova s tionFreed om Ha ppine ss Lo ve
  75. 75. GROWTH vs. BELL CURVE
  76. 76. arvittavista kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähennyksistä. What changes the most? Asuminen Liikkuminen Ruoka Kuluttaminen Vapaa-aika Matkustaminen 0 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % Yksityisen kulutuksen päästöt Suomessa Lähde: Envimat-projekti; www.ymparisto.fi/syke/envimat
  77. 77. The story of two newrevolutions.2012-
  78. 78. The storyof new revolutions.2012-Green tech waiting for its ”PC-revolution”Social tech waiting for its public / civic revolution
  79. 79. Green tech waiting for thePC- revolution"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer","There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. technology does not touch people.
  80. 80. Green tech waiting for thePC- revolution"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer","There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. technology does not touch people.
  81. 81. Green tech waiting for thePC- revolution"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer","There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. technology does not touch people.
  82. 82. What are the services thatenable us to live in a newway in a resource strungworld? technology does not touch people.
  83. 83. Social tech waiting for thepublic / civic revolution technology does not touch people.
  84. 84. The universe ismade of stories,not atoms.Muriel Rukeyser

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