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A pump jack near Greensburg, Kan. Increased oil production and new policies to improve energy efficiency mean that the
United States will become “all but self-sufficient” in energy in about two decades, the International Energy Agency predicted.
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Published: November 12, 2012
The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil FACEBOOK
producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030, TWITTER
the International Energy Agency said Monday. MOST E-MAILED RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
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That increased oil production, SAVE
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to improve energy efficiency, means
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that the United States will become “all
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but self-sufficient” in meeting its
energy needs in about two decades — a REPRINTS
“dramatic reversal of the trend” in
Eric Gay/Associated Press most developed countries, a new
A drilling rig near Kenedy, Tex. There
are several components of the sudden report released by the agency says.
shift in the world’s energy supply, but
the prime mover is a resurgence of oil “The foundations of the global energy
and gas production in the United
States. systems are shifting,” Fatih Birol, chief economist at the
Enlarge This Image
Paris-based organization, which produces the annual World
Energy Outlook, said in an interview before the release. The
agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy
issues, had previously predicted that Saudi Arabia would be
the leading producer until 2035.
The report also predicted that global energy demand would
Jim Wilson/The New York Times grow between 35 and 46 percent from 2010 to 2035,
Oil facilities in North Dakota. The depending on whether policies that have been proposed are
International Energy Agency said the
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2. Report Sees U.S. as Top Oil Producer, Overtaking Saudi Arabia, in 5 Years - NYTimes.c... Page 2 of 4
United States would be a net exporter put in place. Most of that growth will come from China,
of oil by 2030. 1. MORTGAGES
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growing rapidly. The consequences are “potentially far-
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There are several components of the sudden shift in the world’s energy supply, but the 5. DEALBOOK
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unlocking of new reserves of oil and gas found in shale rock. The widespread adoption of
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techniques like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has made those reserves much
more accessible, and in the case of natural gas, resulted in a vast glut that has sent prices
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The strong statements and specific predictions by the energy agency lend new weight to 9. LETTER
trends that have become increasingly apparent in the last year. A Tale of Two Newspapers
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“This striking conclusion confirms a lot of recent projections,” said Michael A. Levi, senior Rules After Hacking Scandal
fellow for energy and environment at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Formed in 1974 after the oil crisis by a group of oil-importing nations, including the United Log in to discover more articles
based on what you‘ve read.
States, the International Energy Agency monitors and analyzes global energy trends to
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ensure a safe and sustainable supply.
Mr. Levi said that the agency’s report was generally “good news” for the United States
because it highlighted the nation’s new sources of energy. But he cautioned that being self-
sufficient did not mean that the country would be insulated from seesawing energy prices,
since those oil prices are set by global markets.
“You may be somewhat less vulnerable to price shocks and the U.S. may be slightly more
protected, but it doesn’t give you the energy independence some people claim,” he said.
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Also, he noted, the agency’s projection of United States self-sufficiency assumed that the
country would improve gas mileage in cars and energy efficiency in homes and appliances.
“It’s supply and demand together that adds up to this striking conclusion,” Mr. Levi said.
Dr. Birol said the agency’s prediction of increasing American self-sufficiency was 55
percent a reflection of more oil production and 45 percent a reflection of improving energy
efficiency in the United States, primarily from the Obama administration’s new fuel
economy standards for cars. He added that even stronger policies to promote energy
efficiency were needed in the United States and many other countries.
The report said that several other factors could also have a large impact on world energy
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markets over the next few years. These include the recovery of the Iraqi oil industry, which
would lead to new supply, and the decision by some countries, notably Germany and Pass the Series 24 Exam
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The new energy sources will help the United States economy, Dr. Birol said, providing
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continued cheap energy relative to the rest of the world. The energy agency estimates that
electricity prices will be about 50 percent cheaper in the United States than in Europe,
largely because of a rise in the number of power plants fueled by cheap natural gas, which
would help American industries and consumers.
But the message is more sobering for the planet, in terms of climate change. Although
natural gas is frequently promoted for being relatively low in carbon emissions compared
to oil or coal, the new global energy market could make it harder to prevent dangerous
levels of warming.
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3. Report Sees U.S. as Top Oil Producer, Overtaking Saudi Arabia, in 5 Years - NYTimes.c... Page 3 of 4
The United States’ reduced reliance on coal will just mean that coal moves to other places, INSIDE NYTIMES.COM
the report says. And the use of coal, now the dirtiest fuel, continues to rise elsewhere.
China’s coal demand will peak around 2020 and then stay steady until 2035, the report
predicted, and in 2025, India will overtake the United States as the world’s second-largest
coal user.
The report warns that no more than one-third of the proved reserves of fossil fuels should
be used by 2050 to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, as many scientists
recommend.
Such restraint is unlikely without a binding international treaty by 2017 that requires
countries to limit the growth of their emissions, Dr. Birol said. He added that pushing
ahead with technologies that could capture and store carbon dioxide was also crucial.
“The report confirms that, given the current policies, we will blow past every safe target for
emissions,” Mr. Levi said. “This should put to rest the idea that the boom in natural gas
will save us from that.”
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: November 12, 2012
An earlier version of this article misstated the International Energy Agency’s prediction
of American self-sufficiency in energy production. The agency said 55 percent of the
improvement would come from more oil production and 45 percent from improvements
in energy efficiency. It did not say that domestic oil production would rise 55 percent.
Also, an earlier version of a photo caption with this article misidentified the equipment
shown in use in an oil field in Greensburg, Kan. It is a pump jack, not an oil rig.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: November 14, 2012
A picture caption with an earlier version of this article misspelled the name of a Texas
town where oil development is taking place. It is Kenedy, not Kennedy.
A version of this article appeared in print on November 13, 2012, on page B6 of the New York edition with the headline: U.S.
Is Forecast to Be No. 1 Oil Producer.
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