Prices & Inflation

1. Prices And Inflation
CA. Divakar Vijayasarathy
DVS Advisors LLP
India-Singapore-London-Dubai-Malaysia-Africa
www.dvsca.com

2. Credits and Acknowledgments
Farheen Feroz
Bharathi Priya R D

3. Presentation Schema
Introduction
Decline in
Inflation
Inflation Based
on CPI & WPI
Current Trends in
Inflation
CPI-C Based Core
Inflation
Drivers of
Inflation
Contribution to
CPI - Combined
Inflation
CPI Inflation in
Goods &
Services
Rural & Urban
Inflation
Contribution of
Different Groups
in CPI & State –
Wise Inflation
Trends in Global
Commodity
Prices
Inflation based
on World Bank
Price Indices
Efforts To
Contain
Inflation
Conclusion

4. Introduction
In the last five years
Economy has witnessed a gradual transition
From a period of high and variable inflation to more stable and low level of
inflation

5. Decline in Inflation
Consumer Price Index – Combined (CPI-C) continued its declining trend for fifth straight financial
year. It has remained below 4.0 per cent in the last two years
Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) declined to a low of 0.1 per cent during
the financial year (FY) 2018-19
Whole Price Index (WPI) remained moderate at 4.3% in FY 2018-19

6. Inflation Based on CPI and WPI (In %)

7. Current Trends in Inflation
• Declined to 3.4% in 2018-19, which is the lowest average
due to low food inflation
• April and March 2019 - 2.9%
• April 2018 - 4.6%
Consumer Price Index – Combined
(CPIC-C)
• Declined to a low of 0.1 per cent
• The food inflation based on WPI has declined to 0.6 per cent
Food Inflation
• Captures the underlying trend of inflation
• More stable and does not get affected by the temporary
shocks
Core Inflation

8. CPI-C Based Core Inflation (In %)

9. Drivers of Inflation
CPI-C inflation was driven mainly by miscellaneous group followed by housing as well as fuel and
light group
Services inflation has been higher than goods inflation and the gap between the two is
growing
Housing - 10.07%
Transport and communication - 4.59%
Education - 3.51% Health - 1.82%

10. Contribution to CPI - Combined inflation
Share in %

11. CPI Inflation in Goods and Services (In %)

12. CPI-Combined (Rural and Urban) Inflation

13. Rural & Urban Inflation
The current phase of low inflation is also marked by reduction in both urban and rural inflation
The decline in rural inflation is steeper than that of urban inflation, resulting in decline of headline
inflation
Fall in rural inflation is due to moderation in food inflation, which has been negative for the previous
six months
The role of miscellaneous group i.e. services was the main driver of CPI Inflation in 2018- 19,
contributing more than 70 per cent to the overall rural inflation

14. Contribution of Different Groups in CPI - Rural
Inflation

15. Contribution of Different Groups in CPI - Urban
Inflation

16. Contribution of Different Groups in CPI - State –
Wise Inflation
2018-2019 (In %) 2017-2018 (In %)

17. CPI (Rural) Inflation for Major States/ Union
Territories (In %)

18. CPI (Urban) Inflation for Major States/ Union
Territories (In %)

19. Trends in Global Commodity Prices
As per the commodity prices published by the World Bank, energy commodity prices have continued their increasing
trend in FY 2018-19
Movement of ‘Fuel & Power’ inflation based on All India WPI tracks World Bank Energy price index; it increased at an
average of 11.5 per cent in FY 2018-19 when compared to 8.1 per cent in FY 2017-18
Both World Bank food prices as well as Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food prices recorded deflation
during FY 2018-19

20. Inflation Based on World Bank Price Indices and
FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) (In %)

21. Inflation Based on WPI (In %)

22. Efforts to Contain Inflation
Advisories are being issued, as and when required, to State Governments to
take strict action against hoarding & black marketing, especially for
commodities in short supply
Regular review meetings on prices and availability of key commodities are
held at the highest level
Higher Minimum Support Price (MSP) for pulses and other crops has been
announced so as to incentivize production and thereby enhance availability
of food items, which may help moderate prices.
Government has set up Price Stabilization Fund (PSF) for procurement of
agri-horticultural commodities or its release during lean period to improve
availability and moderate their prices
The Central Government monitors the price situation on a regular basis as controlling inflation remains a key
area of policy focus

23. Conclusion
Main contributors of headline inflation based on CPI-C during FY 2018-19 are miscellaneous, housing,
and fuel and light groups. Relative importance of services in shaping up headline inflation has
increased
CPI rural inflation declined during FY 2018-19 over FY 2017-18. However, CPI urban inflation
increased marginally during FY 2018-19. Many States witnessed fall in CPI inflation during FY 2018-19
FY 2018-19 saw low headline as well as food inflation. The year witnessed deflation in prices of
pulses, vegetables and sugar. Core inflation averaged higher than the previous year

24. Thank You
DVS Advisors LLP
India-Singapore-London-Dubai-Malaysia-Africa
www.dvsca.com
Research Credits – Kavitha Divakar & CA Jugal Gala
Copyrights © 2019 DVS Advisors LLP