Climate change impact on ecology and economy

1. welcome

2. Impact of Climate Change on
Agriculture

3. INTRODUCTION

4. There was a country. People were happily living by fishing
& other activities depending upon the surrounding sea.
Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a century..The
whole island country sinks..Along with it sinks the 300000
lives..their Culture..& Heritage…
Some how, some ambitious people had seen the
future in advance. They had shelters in other country…They
survived..(tsunami - Maldives)

5.  According to IPCC..There are 20 countries around
world in the verge of extinction..Due to rise in sea
level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING

6. INDIA AND AGRICULTURE
 Population : 1 billion +
 % Share of Agri. in GDP : 42 % (1980), 34 %
(1994),16.3%(2008)
 Area under Agriculture : 160 mha
 Population dependent on
Agriculture : 65-70%
 Per capita land availability : 0.3 to 0.4 ha

7. INDIAN AGRICULTURE – STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES
 Strong strides made in increasing the production in the past
50 years, mainly due to adoption of HYV’s and other
technological developments
 Subsistence agriculture with small land holdings and skewed
distribution of land
 Wide variation in regional productivities
 Majority still depend on rainfed agriculture
 Frequently affected by extreme weather events such as
droughts and cyclones
 Significant proportion of population still under poverty,
mal-nutrition and chronic hunger.

8. CURRENT ISSUES IN AGRICULTURE
 Overproduction in short-term, yet food
insecurity for a large population
 Stagnation/decline in yields
 Diversification
 Quality and quantity of water resources
 Profitability: Increasing production cost
and decrease in the price of commodity.
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

9. EMERGING SCENARIO: DRIVERS OF AGRICULTURAL
TRANSFORMATION
 Increasing population leading to higher (and
quality) demand of food
 Increasing urbanization
 Increasing rural migration, contract and
cooperative farming
 Increasing competition for resources: land, water,
energy, credit
 Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers,
information and communication
 New technologies: Biotechnology, space and
information technology
 Increasing privatization of agricultural extension

10. OBJECTIVES
 To know about the global warming and climate
change scenario
 To know the impact of climate change on
Agriculture
 To review the studies related to climate change

11. Global warming and climate change

12. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
OCEAN
Precipitation
Sea-ice
LAND
Ice- sheets
snow
Biomass
Clouds
Solar
radiation
Terrestrial
radiation
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
ATMOSPHERE
The Met.Office Hadley Centre
IPCC 2001

13. What’s causing the changes?
 Burning of fossil fuels
- creates CO2
 Tropical deforestation
- eliminates crucial carbon sinks
 Refrigeration and air conditioning
machinery
- creates CFC’s.
 Decomposition of waste, cattle
Farming
- creates methane

14. Increasing greenhouse gases trap more heat

15. GJJ99 3
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
The greenhouse effect
SUN
Some solar radiation is
reflected by the earth’s
surface and the atmosphere
ATMOSPHERE
Solar radiation
passes through the
clear atmosphere
EARTH
Most solar radiation is absorbed
by the surface, which warms
Some of the infrared
radiation is absorbed
and re-emitted by the
greenhouse gases.
The effect of this is to
warm the surface
and the lower
atmosphere
Infrared radiation
is emitted from the
Earth’s surface
IPCC 2001

16. Climate change and its impact on food security, Rajegowda 2009

17. WHAT IS THE CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT SECTORS
IN INDIA TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
(SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN INDIA)
Industrial
processes
8%
Wastes
2%
Land use
changes
1%
Agriculture
28%
Energy
61%
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

18. WHAT SECTORS OF AGRICULTURE IN INDIA
CONTRIBUTE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
Rice cultivation
23%
Manure
management
5%
Emission from
soils
12%
Enteric
fermentation
59%
Crop residues
1%
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

19. HUMAN ACTIVITIES HAVE CHANGED THE COMPOSITION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SINCE THE PRE- INDUSTRIAL ERA
IPCC 2001

20. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE LEVELS OF
CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Agarwal,2007

21. PROJECTED CONCENTRATIONS OF CO2 DURING THE 21ST CENTURY
ARE TWO TO FOUR TIMES THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL
IPCC 2001

22. WHO ARE THE CONTRIBUTOR OF GREEN HOUSE
GASES

23. IPCC 2001

24. MOST OF THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ARE
FROM THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
Europe
Africa
Japan, Australia
and New zealand
South Asia
East Asia
USA and Canada
Latin America
Middle East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Region
tons
of
CO2
eq/capita
IPCC 2001

25. Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda2009

26. To whomit is affecting

27. Health effects
Temperature
-related
illness and death
Extreme weather
-
related health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Water and food
-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
rodent borne diseases
Health Effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
related (floods, storms,
etc.) health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Human
exposures
Regional weather
changes
•Heat waves
•Extreme weather
•Temperature
•Precipitation
•Heat waves
•Extreme weather
•Temperature
•
•Sea-level
rise
Contamination
pathways
Transmission
dynamics
-
-
-
-
rodent
Microbial changes:
Contamination
paths
Transmission
dynamics
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
borne diseases
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Changes in agro-
ecosystems, hydrology
Socioeconomic and
demographic
disruption
Effects of food and
water shortages
Mental, nutritional,
infectious-disease
and other effects

28. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
 Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a
large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors
 Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional
and technological capacity and access to knowledge
 Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the
poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,
exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate
food, clean water and other resources.
IPCC 2001

29. IMPACT OF CHANGES IN CONCENTRATION OF
GHG’S

30. Increase in temperature

31. VARIATION OF THE EARTH’S SURFACE FOR THE PAST 140
YEARS...
IPCC 2001

32. THE RAISE IN AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE BY 1.3°C IN THE STATE OF KARNATAKA DURING
1950 TO 1990 HAS BEEN OBSERVED
Fig: Increase in the mean temperature of Karnataka state
Climate change and its impact on food security 2009

33. LAND AREAS ARE PROJECTED TO WARM MORE THAN THE OCEANS WITH
THE GREATEST WARMING AT HIGH LATITUDES
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990:
Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
IPCC 2001

34. VARIATION IN RAINFALL

35. FIG: NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL IN KARNATAKA STATE
Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al.2009

36. 500
900
1300
50 60 70 80 90 2000 2010 2020
Years
Rainfall
(mm)
Fig. 9: Declining trend of mean annual rainfall for the period
from 1950 to 2006 in Karnataka State
Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al .2009

37. Fig. 14: Shifts in monthly rainfall pattern observed at different
places in Karnataka
Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al.2009

38. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED
IPCC 2001

39. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR INDIA
Year Season Increase in
Temperature,
o
C
Change in
Rainfall, %
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36
2020s
Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82
2050s
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50
2080s
Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

40. IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON INDIAN FOOD
GRAIN PRODUCTION FROM 1950-2007
Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al.2009

41. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

42. RISE IN THE SEA LEVEL
IPCC 2001

43. One third of the world’s
population is now subject
to water scarcity
Population facing water scarcity will more
than double over the next 30 years
Climate change is
projected to
decrease water
availability in many
arid- and semi-arid
regions

44. Climate change will intensify the loss of
biodiversity
Estimated 10-15% of the world’s
species could become extinct over the
next 30 years

45. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
 Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last
100 years
 GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) has increased, caused by
fossil fuel use and land use changes are main reasons.
 Temperature will increase by 1.8-6.40 C by 2100 .Greater
increase in rabi
 Precipitation likely to increase in kharif
 Snow cover is projected to contract
 More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations
 Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per
year over 1961 to 2003.

46. OTHER OBSERVATIONS OF CHANGE IN
GLOBAL CLIMATE
 Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves
have become more frequent.
 Frequency of heavy precipitation events has
increased over most land areas.

47. OTHER CHANGES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE IN
FUTURE
 Tropical cyclones to become more intense,
with heavier precipitation.
 Snow cover is projected to contract.
 Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
precipitation events will become more
frequent.
 The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 - 0.59
meters by 2020.

48. Some other impact
are ………..

49. IMPACT ON…….
 Agriculture: In Rajasthan 2oc rise in temperature was
estimated to reduce production of pearl millet by 10-
15%.
 Land and soil health: Soil organic matter will decline as
temperatures are elevated.
• Infestation of pests and weeds.
• As a result of decline in OM, soils will become more
acidic, nutrients will become depleted, microbiological
diversity will diminish and a decline in soil structure
will result in less WHC.

50. CONT…
 Biodiversity: Climate change, in the medium to
long term, will affect biodiversity.
 The distribution and population of many species will change,
for example, western Indian coastline, tropical ecosystems and
species such as mangroves and coral reefs are threatened by
changes in temperature, rising sea levels and increased
concentration of CO2
 Pests and diseases: Plant and animal(human)
diseases and insect distributions are likely to
change. For example, 1994 Surat in Gujarat was
hit by plague results in 59 deaths. Increase in the
population of locusts

51. Cont…..
 Animal health and production: Within the livestock sector,
changes in rainfall and temperature will impact animal health
due to the:
 Influence on distribution, competence and abundance of
vectors and ectoparasites.
 As increased rainfall and heavy flooding form part of the
climate change scenario, high chance that RVF could
increase in frequency.
 RVF can cause acute abortions in livestock and is danger to
animals.

52. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE
 Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by
2100.
 Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC
increase in temperature reduces wheat
production by 4-5 million tons.
 Increased droughts and floods are likely to
increase production variability
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

53. Cont…..
 Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for
livestock; implications for milk production
 Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
likely to affect fish breeding, migration and
harvests.
 Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and
insects
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

54. PREDICTED EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE OVER THE
NEXT 50 YEARS
Climate element Expected change by 2050 Confidence in
prediction
Effect on agriculture
CO2 Increase from 360 PPM to 450
– 600 PPM
Very high Good for crops
Increased
photosynthesis
Reduced water
use
Sea level rise Rise by 10-15cm Very high Loss of land
Coastal erosion
Flooding
Stalinization of
ground water
Temperature Rise by 1-2 OC
Increased frequency of heat
waves
High Faster or shorter
growing seasons
Heat stress risk
Increased
Evapotranspiration
Precipitation Seasonal changes by + or –
10%
Low •Drought
•Soil problem
•Water logging
storminess Increased wind speeds, more
intense rainfall events
Very high Lodging
Soil erosion
Reduced
infiltration of
rainfall
IPCC 2001

55. IMPACTS ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE –LITERATURE
 Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in
temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high
yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat
yield by 0.45 ton/ha.
 Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS model and recent climate change
scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops and showed
decline in yield.

56. FIG: OPTIMUM CROP GROWTH PERIOD WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE
Climate change and its impact on food security, Rajegowda, 2009

57. Fig. 13: Annual/monsoon Rainfall variability and total food
production in Karnataka
Climate change and its impact on food security Rajegowda, 2009

58. POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT
PRODUCTION IN INDIA
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Production
,
Mtons
Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)

59. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFALL AND AGRICULTURAL
YIELD IN TAMIL NADU
Year Overall
rainfall(mm)
Yield rate (kgs /ha)
Normal Actual paddy millets pulses Food
grains
oilseeds Cotton
(bales of
170kgs)
Sugarc
ane(ton
/ha)
2001-02 974.7 795.2
(-18.4)
- - - - - - -
2002-03 964.1 731.0
(-24.2)
2359 958 356 1598 1284 188 9244
2003-04 961.8 1034.6
(7.6)
2308 983 375 1520 1387 213 9198
2004-05 961.9 1078.8
(12.2)
2703 1053 367 1870 1484 244 110
2005-06 958.5 1304.1
(34.1)
2541 850 337 1844 1527 260 105
Southern Economist 2009

60. SIMULATED IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON
IRRIGATED RICE YIELDS IN NORTH INDIA
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Change
in
grain
yield,
%
Minimum
Maximum
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal.2009

61. SIMULATED IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ON IRRIGATED WHEAT YIELDS IN NORTH INDIA
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Change
in
grain
yield,
%
Minimum
Maximum
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009

62. SIMULATED IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ON RAINFED WHEAT YIELDS IN CENTRAL INDIA
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Change
in
grain
yield,
%
Minimum
Maximum
Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit
Biswal

63. Is it possible to cope up
with…………..

64. Sustainable consumption is better than
sustainable development

65. Thank
you