The Indian economy appears to have tided over the temporary blip caused by demonetisation and GST implementation and clocked a good growth rate of 7.7% during the Jan-Mar 2018 quarter. The upswing in the last quarter of FY 2018 is seen as a clear pointer towards higher growth in FY 2019, now forecast at around 7.5%.

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The Indian economy
• The Indian economy clocked a good growth rate of
7.7% during the Jan-Mar 2018 quarter
• At current prices, India’s GDP is estimated at around
INR 168 Trillion (~US$ 2.6 trillion) for FY 2018,
reflecting a growth of 6.6% – a bit lower than the
7.1% growth registered in FY 2017
• The upswing in the last quarter of FY 2018 is seen as
a clear pointer towards higher growth in FY 2019,
now forecast at around 7.5%
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Source: Reserve Bank of India
Note: data for 2017-18 is provisional estimate
Source: Reserve Bank of India; Note: 2017-18 provisional estimate
Info-Capsule from
Indian economy: Trends in GDP (2011-2017)
(2011-12 series, INR Trillion)
Indian economy: GDP growth trends, 2003-2017, (%)
(at constant prices)
Year
FDI inflows
US$ Mn.
Growth (%)
Year-on-year
2012-13 34,298 -26%
2013-14 36,046 +5%
2014-15# 45,148 +25%
2015-16# 55,559 +23%
2016-17# 60,082 +8%
2017-18# (Apr-Dec17) 48,201
Trends in FDI inflows into India
Source: Department of industrial Policy and Promotion, Government of India
# provisional figures subject to reconciliation with RBI
• Foreign direct inflows into India has grown well during the
last 5 years and stood at around US$ 60,082 million during
2016-17
306.0
300.0
313.0
311.0
262.0
276.0
303.0
489.0 491.0
450.0 448.0
381.0
385.0
460.0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18*
Exports Imports
Trends in Foreign trade, US$ billion, 2011-2017
Source: Reserve Bank of India *Provisional
• Merchandise exports from India has remained stable since
2011-12; Imports have witnessed a growth on 19.5%
during 2017-18
• The economy appears to have tided over the
temporary blip caused by demonetisation and GST
implementation
• Services sector accounts for 61.8% share of the GDP,
followed by industry at 23.5% and agriculture at 14.8%
(FY 2018)
• With high oil prices, inflation needs to be tracked
closely
• Performance on the export front continues to be
lacklustre
7.9 7.9
9.3 9.3
9.8
3.9
8.5
10.3
6.6
5.5
6.4
7.4
8.2
7.1
6.6
CAGR (2011-17) @
current price: 11.5%
CAGR (2011-17) @
constant price: 6.9%
87.4
99.4
112.3
124.7
137.6
152.5
167.5
92.1
98.0
105.3
113.9
122.0
130.0
GDP @ current price GDP@constant price