Health earth anthropocene_isee_2015
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Health Earth, Health in the Anthropocene, environmental epidemiology, International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, Planetary Health, sustainability and health
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Health earth anthropocene_isee_2015
- 1. CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin Butler 27th ISEE conference, Sao Paulo September 2, 2015 + Introducing Health in the “Anthropocene”
- 2. CRICOS #00212K I have no actual or potential competing financial interests in the last 3 years, including but not limited to: grant support; employment (past, present, or firm offer of future); patents (pending or applied); payment for expert witness or testimony; personal financial interests by the authors, immediate family members, or institutional affiliations that may gain or lose financially through this presentation, other than travel funding from the University of Canberra, I have no consultancies, board positions, patent and royalty arrangements, stock shares, or bonds.
- 3. CRICOS #00212KCRICOS #00212K Integrated Science for Sustainable Transitions http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/events/1504 28-IGBP.html State of the art lecture on sustainability science.. Yet nothing on health (including in Future Earth)
- 4. CRICOS #00212K Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity Steffen et al, 2015 What does this mean for society? And for health?
- 5. CRICOS #00212K 8 institutional co-founders 6 countries + UNU UO FdUC Au MU NZ UL UK VU Ca UCSD US UW USUNU IIGH
- 6. CRICOS #00212K A second “circle” PHF In icddr,b Bd ILRI Ke USP Br PHF In
- 8. CRICOS #00212K H-Earth at ISEE Wael Al- Delaimy US Colin Soskolne Canada/ AUS Colin Butler AUS
- 9. CRICOS #00212K 452 - INTRODUCTION TO HEALTH-EARTH AND THE ANTHROPOCENE COLIN BUTLER - UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA 601 - LIMITS TO ADAPTATION KRISTIE L. EBI - UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON 360 - EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS IN GLOBAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT: WHICH PA COLIN SOSKOLNE - UNIVERSITIES OF ALBERTA AND CANBERRA 1022 - ETHICAL ASPECTS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGISTS IN THE ANTHROPOC WAEL AL-DELAIMY - UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO
- 11. CRICOS #00212K July, 2015 Reviewers included.. Colin D Butler, Trevor Hancock
- 12. CRICOS #00212K ISEE and Health-Earth
- 13. CRICOS #00212K Prof A.J. (Tony) McMichael 1942-2014
- 14. CRICOS #00212K A/Prof Colin D Butler (colin.butler@anu.edu.au) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health Australian National University, Australia Three wise epidemiologists Nikko Toshogu Shinto Shrine, Tokyo. Photo: Rangaku 1976, 2008 Limits to growth and public health: where is environmental epidemiology? APOLOGIES: future generations 23rd ISEE meeting, Barcelona, September, 2011
- 15. CRICOS #00212K ISEE/ISES/ISIAQ, Basel, Switzerland, August 21, 2013 Professor Colin Butler (Australian Research Council Future Fellow) Limits to growth and environmental epidemiology: a conceptual framework
- 17. CRICOS #00212K Trevor Hancock, Colin Sosoklne
- 18. CRICOS #00212K “eco-social” determinants of health Focus on either social or ecological often incomplete – need to see the inter-relationships, otherwise policy solution lacking Health issue Illustrative determinant social ecological rural suicide (India) indebtedness drought conflict (Yemen) “political” water scarcity Rwandan genocide 1994 ethnic tension, “youth bulge” fertile land scarcity ebola (West Africa) poor health services, poverty deforestation (?) (more contact, ?viral spillover) migration
- 19. CRICOS #00212K
- 20. CRICOS #00212K
- 21. CRICOS #00212K
- 22. CRICOS #00212K “surges exceeding 11m in Tampa and 7m in Dubai .. non-negligible probabilities, especially towards end of century.”
- 25. CRICOS #00212K “Reuters regularly uses the term ‘economic migrants.’ We need to pressure them into using the more appropriate and descriptive ‘freeloading parasites’.’’
- 26. CRICOS #00212K
- 27. CRICOS #00212K 3 case studies 1.Syria 2.Food prices 3.Bangladesh 2100
- 28. CRICOS #00212KPNAS - 2015
- 29. CRICOS #00212K Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure
- 30. CRICOS #00212K “a risk multiplier”
- 31. CRICOS #00212K 2. Food prices
- 32. CRICOS #00212K
- 33. CRICOS #00212K decline in price due to Green Revolution oil, speculation, rice panic extreme events World food price index (deflated) (1961-2015) (data FAO)
- 34. CRICOS #00212K 3. Bangladesh 2100
- 35. CRICOS #00212K Rohingya and Bengali refugees – May 2015
- 36. CRICOS #00212K New methods Integrate large scale social and environmental “indicators” For certain locations, times, environmental influences. Scale (1-5) social cohesiveness environmental stress chance of a catalyst (eg assassination) develop metrics and models that reflect/predict chance of population “corrections” (a euphemism)
- 37. CRICOS #00212K New methods Rank (1-5) by historical data, expert judgement Eg Rwanda 1961, 1994 Syria Yemen Darfur (Sudan), South Sudan Arakan (Myanmar) Bangladesh (future)
- 38. CRICOS #00212K Taboos Scientific reticence Governmental resistance But Whenever we encourage “development” or “resilience” we have many of these ideas somewhere in our mind
- 39. CRICOS #00212K Emerging issue in global health curricula but far too little, given topic’s importance
- 40. CRICOS #00212K Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming April 28, 2015
Editor's Notes
- 452 - INTRODUCTION TO HEALTH-EARTH AND THE ANTHROPOCENECOLIN BUTLER - UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA Introduction: Health-Earth (H-Earth) is a newly established global collaboration which seeks to broaden the scope of environmental epidemiology (and global public health) to further embrace not only climate change but other interacting aspects of what McMichael termed "planetary overload", and which is also sometimes called "planetary boundaries" or “limits to growth”. H-Earth seeks to not only conduct research, but to teach and advocate for urgent change, given our now closing encroachment on limits to growth, both regionally and at the world scale. Methods: Novel methods and theories are needed to investigate and conceptualise the intersection of the Earth’s physical system with that of the global social system in the Anthropocene. Arising from this intersection are the determinants of global population health, both now and in the future. The elements which are most challenging in the scope of H-Earth studies are the scale (local to global), the time dimension (especially in the future) and a widened conceptualisation of “cause”. This presentation will sketch three case studies that link climatic and other “eco-social” factors with more “proximal” (obvious, better recognised) health determinants: (1) the Syrian conflict, (2) the rise in global food price since 2008 and (3) sea level rise and future migration from Bangladesh Results: A vast and expanding scientific literature – largely beyond the confines of human health - warns of an approaching crisis of great relevance to planetary health. Yet, understanding of this among human health scientists greatly lags this literature. Principal reasons include the timidity, short time-horizons, and conflicting interests of most funders. This combines with conceptual and emotional barriers among researchers that also inhibit the development of Health-Earth studies. Conclusions: This presentation introduces the topic, building on the Limits to Growth symposium, held in Basel in 2013. ---- 601 - LIMITS TO ADAPTATIONKRISTIE L. EBI - UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the rate of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with the magnitude and pattern of projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. 360 - EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS IN GLOBAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT: WHICH PARADIGM AND IN WHOSE BEST INTERESTS?COLIN LIONEL SOSKOLNE - UNIVERSITIES OF ALBERTA AND CANBERRA Introduction: Examining the many dimensions of a world destined to collapse under the weight of humankind’s current practices, one may ask how it is that science has so failed humanity in influencing policy. My focus in addressing this question is on the techniques used by professionals who permit themselves to be co-opted for manipulating science to foment doubt and manufacture uncertainty. Methods: Analysis of exposés that continue to emerge identify scientists engaged in the lucrative “doubt science” industry who use standard techniques for producing “junk science” to support the denial of harm. Being an applied science that bridges research, from in vitro and animal systems through public health and health policy, the methods of epidemiology can be manipulated to produce junk science. Results: The scientific paradigm can be used in health risk assessment to pit industry against both regulatory frameworks and the very communities around the world that regulation is intended to protect. The use of inappropriate methods and biased interpretation constitute the junk science industry’s basic toolkit, serving to undermine science in support both of the status quo and the dominant paradigm. Inappropriate methods and biased interpretation include poor study design and misguided ways of integrating established knowledge about mechanisms; qualitative approaches are often dismissed as unscientific. Techniques employed that skew and delay policy, and also create an unhelpful division among scientists, include the failure to make explicit those value judgements that underlie decisions about selecting appropriate standards of evidence to draw policy-relevant conclusions. Conclusions: Manufactured uncertainty is usually produced through funding from moneyed interests and is used to infiltrate the literature to undermine policy. Only when we collectively understand the influences on science can we defend ourselves to work in support of the public interest. The Division of Global Health, Department of Family and Preventive Medicine invites you to a special lecture: H-Earth is an emerging collaboration of 9 co-founding institutions in 7 countries, which seeks to find self-interested reasons to place the issue of greater health, social and environmental equity more central to the global health agenda. It argues that many of the most pressing problems global health faces are neither mainly social nor mainly environmental, but “eco-social”. It thus follows that solutions must also be eco-social, they cannot be mainly technological. Climate change exemplifies a global health problem which cannot be solved by applying resources mainly to high income populations. While most commentators have argued that climate change largely threatens to harm the health of the poor its foreseeable social consequences include mass migration, conflict, rising food prices, and social instability that would affect all social classes. H-Earth seeks to train, educate, and motivate a cohort of public health workers, in collaboration with other disciplines, to better integrate Earth system science not only with health, but planetary scale social science. About the Speaker: Colin Butler is a Professor at the University of Canberra, and an Australian Research Council Future Fellow on the topic of "Health and Sustainability: Australia in a Global Context". Dr. Butler is especially interested in future global health, including the consequences of global environmental changes such as to the climate, ecosystems, energy sources and resource depletion. He has published widely, and given many invited talks on topics including food security, population growth, ecology and infectious diseases. His collaborations include the World Health Organization, the Special Programme on Tropical Diseases Research, and the World Medical Association. He is co-founder of the NGO BODHI, which is active since 1989, especially in India. He is sole editor of Climate Change and Global Health (CABI, Sept 2014) and the senior editor of Health of Planet, People and Places Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding (ANU E Press, 2015). He is a member of the scientific steering committee of Global Environmental Change and Human Health, which part of the Earth System Science Partnership. His research interests include Sustainability, Human rights and their links with human health. Please RSVP to Kati Gonsalves at [email_address] Two suggestions – perhaps the second in better for the Scripps interface – but is it too social for them? (Have to run now, Wael, to dinner). Health Earth (H-Earth): why do we need it? What is it? What might it do? Prof Colin Butler The meaning of global health is shifting from traditional tropical medicine and international health to the aspiration of health for all on a single planet. Even in developed countries, sustainable health depends on improved health in poor places. Put simply, a fairer world is in the collective self-interest of us all. Three examples concern Ebola, antibiotic resistance and climate change. None of these problems can be satisfactorily addressed by focussing resources primarily in high income populations. The control of Ebola requires a vast expansion of “health literacy” not just in West Africa but among poorer people in developed countries. Inequality is an important driver of medical tourism which risks the unwelcome import of highly problematic antibiotic-resistant pathogens in exchange. While climate change appears most likely to harm the health of the poor it also risks social consequences (e.g. due to sea level rise) from which no-one can be safe. H-Earth is an emerging collaboration of nine co-founding institutions (7 countries) which seeks to make these and similar issues central to the global public health agenda. Its co-founders are linked through the late Prof Tony McMichael, who coined the term “Planetary Overload”. H-EARTH seeks to complement but not duplicate existing global health networks. It has a strong ethical basis. In summary, it argues that many of the most pressing problems global health faces are neither mainly social nor mainly environmental, but “eco-social”. It thus follows that solutions must also be eco-social, they cannot be mainly technological. Climate change and health from a Health Earth (H-Earth) perspective Prof Colin Butler H-Earth is an emerging collaboration of nine co-founding institutions (7 countries) which seeks to find self-interested reasons to place the issue of greater health, social and environmental equity more central to the global public health agenda. H-Earth seeks to complement but not duplicate existing global health networks. It has a strong ethical basis. It argues that many of the most pressing problems global health faces are neither mainly social nor mainly environmental, but “eco-social”. It thus follows that solutions must also be eco-social, they cannot be mainly technological. Climate change exemplifies a global health problem which cannot be solved by applying resources mainly to high income populations. While most commentators have argued that climate change largely threatens to harm the health of the poor its foreseeable social consequences include mass migration, conflict and social instability, including from rising food prices. These effects will feedback to affect us all. H-Earth seeks to train, educate, and motivate a cohort of public health workers, in collaboration with other disciplines, to better integrate Earth system science not only with health, but planetary scale social science. Best wishes Colin From: Al-Delaimy, Wael [mailto:waldelaimy@ucsd.edu] Sent: Sunday, 12 October 2014 5:32 PMTo: Colin.ButlerSubject: RE: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Colin, why don’t you send me a synopsis of that so that I send around and gauge interest from the scripps institute of oceanography to see if we hold the talk there or at the medical school. In general this is a new topic for health sciences so it might not attract as much audience but the undergraduate or scripps folks might be interested. Wael From: Colin.Butler [mailto:Colin.Butler@canberra.edu.au] Sent: Saturday, October 11, 2014 11:22 PMTo: Al-Delaimy, WaelSubject: RE: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Thanks very much Wael As for my talk what duration do you suggest and what is the likely audience? Broadly though, I propose to talk about Health-Earth: what it is, why we need it, what it might do. I am giving a similar talk in Liverpool, for 30 mins including questions, but I could talk a bit longer .. depends on what you think is the audience’s interest and attention span.. Also a similar talk in Seattle, most likely. Best wishes Colin From: Al-Delaimy, Wael [mailto:waldelaimy@ucsd.edu] Sent: Sunday, 12 October 2014 5:17 PMTo: Colin.Butler; Anne Hirsch ([email_address])Subject: RE: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Dear Colin, I will work with my assistant to arrange your booking in a nearby hotel. She will know if we can book and pay for it or if you have to pay for it and then we reimburse you. Also, please provide you the title of a talk, a short paragraph about the talk and a short bio for you so we can begin planning the talk and book the room. I will come pick you from the train station. More later.. Wael From: Colin.Butler [mailto:Colin.Butler@canberra.edu.au] Sent: Saturday, October 11, 2014 11:05 PMTo: Anne Hirsch ([email_address])Cc: Al-Delaimy, WaelSubject: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Dear Anne and Wael I have just booked a ticket on the train from LA to San Diego: Sunday Nov9 Depart 4:10 PM (Union Station) Arrive: 7:03 PM Wael, do you have a suggestion where I might stay? If possible I would like to stay walking distance from the campus. I depart San Diego Lindberg Field on Tues Nov 11 at 10.12 am Kind regards Colin Prof Colin D Butler Australian Research Council Future Fellow Faculty of Health, University of Canberra Visiting Fellow, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University Tel: +61(0)2-6201-2194 E: [email_address] W: http://www.canberra.edu.au/faculties/health/courses/public-health/staff-profiles/butler-colin www.bodhi.net.au https://twitter.com/ColinDavdButler blog “Climate Change and Global Health” (CABI) (Editor CD Butler) in press: Health of People, Places and Planet. Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding, Editors Colin D Butler, Jane Dixon, Tony Capon
- Kenneth Boulding Kenneth Boulding, an Economist, Philosopher and Poet, Dies at 83By SYLVIA NASARPublished: March 20, 1993 Kenneth Boulding, a much-honored but unorthodox economist, philosopher and poet, died yesterday. He was 83. His assistant, Vivian Wilson, said Professor Boulding, who had taught at the University of Colorado in Boulder since 1977, died at his home after a long bout with cancer. Nominated at different times for Nobel Prizes in both peace and economics, Professor Boulding was renowned less for a single contribution to economics than for a large number of interesting intellectual and moral insights that both charmed and challenged his fellow social scientists. In addition to writing three dozen books, three volumes of poetry and 800 articles, Professor Boulding — whose white mane, stammer and pointed wit made him distinctive — lectured frequently and entertainingly. “Ken Boulding is like wine that can’t be shipped very far,” said Mancur Olson, a professor of economics at the University of Maryland. “His talks, his writing were so full of brilliant asides that no summary does them justice.” Early Successes The son of a plumber, Kenneth Ewart Boulding was born in grimy Liverpool, England, in 1910. He won a chemistry scholarship to Oxford, said Mark Blaug, professor emeritus at the University of London, but soon switched to economics. In 1931, at age 22, he had his first paper — a short but brilliant work on economics — accepted by the Economic Journal, edited by John Maynard Keynes, the British economist. After fellowships at Harvard University and the University of Chicago and a short spell teaching at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, Professor Boulding came to the United States for good. He taught at several colleges around the country before settling at the University of Colorado. Like the American economist Paul Samuelson and the British economist Nicholas Caldor, Professor Boulding initially concentrated on adding his own insights to Keynes’s theory that depressions are due to too little private spending and that governments should run deficits to end them. His first book, “Economic Analysis,” was an introductory textbook that over four editions between 1941 and 1966 blended Keynesian and neoclassical economic theory into a coherent synthesis. Professor Blaug said the book was “remarkable in showing how far one can go in economics by using no tool more complicated than that of demand and supply.” Professor Boulding, from a family of deeply religious Methodists, became a Quaker as a young man and remained a passionate if unconventional Christian throughout his life. An ardent pacifist, he opposed Word War II and lost his wartime post as an economist at the League of Nations. Concerns Beyond Economics His spiritual and philosophical concerns ultimately led him to look far beyond economics. “Imagine someone who was half Milton Friedman, half Mahatma Ghandi,” said Professor Olson, who knew Professor Boulding well and credits him for influencing his own work. Professor Boulding invented new areas of economics, including the economics of peace, and published a book of that title in 1945. (An Ayer edition is still in print.) Professor Boulding won the John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association in 1949, a prize given every two years to the economist under age 40 judged to have made a significant contribution to economic thought. The award was recognition that Professor Boulding was one of the best and brightest of his generation of economists. After that, he increasingly wandered from the traditional concerns of economics. “He left economics,” said Wassily Leontief, himself a Nobel Prize winner in economics. “He became a universal philosopher.” Though an outsider among modern economists, Professor Boulding was heaped with many honors. He became president of the American Economic Association in 1968 and was awarded dozens of honorary degrees. Part of his charm was his rare diversity. He wrote rhymed poetry (one of his books was entitled “Beasts, Ballads and Bouldingisms”), sculptured, painted water colors and, friends said, used to sing entire Gilbert and Sullivan musicals from memory and could recite nearly all of Wordsworth. Professor Boulding is survived by his wife, Dr. Elise M. Boulding, a professor emerita of sociology at Dartmouth College; five children, J. Russell, of Bloomington, Ind., Mark, of Denver, Philip, of Olalla, Wash., William, of Durham, N.C., and Christie Boulding-Graham of Wayland, Mass., and 16 grandchildrenhttp://www.colorado.edu/econ/Kenneth.Boulding/ http://www.personal.psu.edu/~dxl31/research/otherstuff/boulding.html http://www.panarchy.org/boulding/systems.1956.html http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/conversations/Boulding/kboulding-con0.html http://www.eoearth.org/article/Boulding,_Kenneth_Ewart http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLjhaaP9bP8
- This year's El Nino weather pattern could be strongest on record: experts Date: 02-Sep-15Country: SWITZERLANDAuthor: Tom Miles The current El Nino weather phenomenon is expected peak between October and January and could turn into one of the strongest on record, experts from the World Meteorological Organization said at a news conference on Tuesday. Climate models and experts suggest surface waters in the east-central Pacific Ocean are likely to be more than 2 degrees hotter than average, potentially making this El Nino one of the strongest ever. Typically, the warm air above the eastern Pacific is causing increased precipitation over the west coast of South America and dry conditions over the Australia/Indonesia archipelago and the Southeast Asia region, said Maxx Dilley, director of the WMO's Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch. El Nino can also bring higher rainfall and sometimes flooding to the Horn of Africa, but causes drier conditions in southern Africa, Dilley said. Climate scientists are better prepared than ever with prediction models and data on El Nino patterns, but the impact of this El Nino in the northern hemisphere is hard to forecast because there is also an Arctic warming effect at work on the Atlantic jetstream current. "The truth is we don't know what will happen. Will the two patterns reinforce each other? Will they cancel each other? Are they going to act in sequence? Are they going to be regional? We really don't know," said David Carlson, the director of the World Climate Research Program. This El Nino could also be followed abruptly by a cooling La Nina, which, along with the advance of global warming, was adding to the uncertainty, Carlson said. "I think we all think that there's some climate warming signals starting to show up in the El Nino record," he said. But he added that it is still unclear how global warming is affected the frequency or magnitude of El Nino events. Since 1950, strong El Nino events occurred in 1972-3, 1982-3 and 1997-8. (Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)
- Kenneth Boulding Kenneth Boulding, an Economist, Philosopher and Poet, Dies at 83By SYLVIA NASARPublished: March 20, 1993 Kenneth Boulding, a much-honored but unorthodox economist, philosopher and poet, died yesterday. He was 83. His assistant, Vivian Wilson, said Professor Boulding, who had taught at the University of Colorado in Boulder since 1977, died at his home after a long bout with cancer. Nominated at different times for Nobel Prizes in both peace and economics, Professor Boulding was renowned less for a single contribution to economics than for a large number of interesting intellectual and moral insights that both charmed and challenged his fellow social scientists. In addition to writing three dozen books, three volumes of poetry and 800 articles, Professor Boulding — whose white mane, stammer and pointed wit made him distinctive — lectured frequently and entertainingly. “Ken Boulding is like wine that can’t be shipped very far,” said Mancur Olson, a professor of economics at the University of Maryland. “His talks, his writing were so full of brilliant asides that no summary does them justice.” Early Successes The son of a plumber, Kenneth Ewart Boulding was born in grimy Liverpool, England, in 1910. He won a chemistry scholarship to Oxford, said Mark Blaug, professor emeritus at the University of London, but soon switched to economics. In 1931, at age 22, he had his first paper — a short but brilliant work on economics — accepted by the Economic Journal, edited by John Maynard Keynes, the British economist. After fellowships at Harvard University and the University of Chicago and a short spell teaching at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, Professor Boulding came to the United States for good. He taught at several colleges around the country before settling at the University of Colorado. Like the American economist Paul Samuelson and the British economist Nicholas Caldor, Professor Boulding initially concentrated on adding his own insights to Keynes’s theory that depressions are due to too little private spending and that governments should run deficits to end them. His first book, “Economic Analysis,” was an introductory textbook that over four editions between 1941 and 1966 blended Keynesian and neoclassical economic theory into a coherent synthesis. Professor Blaug said the book was “remarkable in showing how far one can go in economics by using no tool more complicated than that of demand and supply.” Professor Boulding, from a family of deeply religious Methodists, became a Quaker as a young man and remained a passionate if unconventional Christian throughout his life. An ardent pacifist, he opposed Word War II and lost his wartime post as an economist at the League of Nations. Concerns Beyond Economics His spiritual and philosophical concerns ultimately led him to look far beyond economics. “Imagine someone who was half Milton Friedman, half Mahatma Ghandi,” said Professor Olson, who knew Professor Boulding well and credits him for influencing his own work. Professor Boulding invented new areas of economics, including the economics of peace, and published a book of that title in 1945. (An Ayer edition is still in print.) Professor Boulding won the John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association in 1949, a prize given every two years to the economist under age 40 judged to have made a significant contribution to economic thought. The award was recognition that Professor Boulding was one of the best and brightest of his generation of economists. After that, he increasingly wandered from the traditional concerns of economics. “He left economics,” said Wassily Leontief, himself a Nobel Prize winner in economics. “He became a universal philosopher.” Though an outsider among modern economists, Professor Boulding was heaped with many honors. He became president of the American Economic Association in 1968 and was awarded dozens of honorary degrees. Part of his charm was his rare diversity. He wrote rhymed poetry (one of his books was entitled “Beasts, Ballads and Bouldingisms”), sculptured, painted water colors and, friends said, used to sing entire Gilbert and Sullivan musicals from memory and could recite nearly all of Wordsworth. Professor Boulding is survived by his wife, Dr. Elise M. Boulding, a professor emerita of sociology at Dartmouth College; five children, J. Russell, of Bloomington, Ind., Mark, of Denver, Philip, of Olalla, Wash., William, of Durham, N.C., and Christie Boulding-Graham of Wayland, Mass., and 16 grandchildrenhttp://www.colorado.edu/econ/Kenneth.Boulding/ http://www.personal.psu.edu/~dxl31/research/otherstuff/boulding.html http://www.panarchy.org/boulding/systems.1956.html http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/conversations/Boulding/kboulding-con0.html http://www.eoearth.org/article/Boulding,_Kenneth_Ewart http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLjhaaP9bP8
- WN – en route to Africa
- The Lion of Al Lat statue at the Temple of Allat in Palmyra Photograph: Alamy http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/02/isis-militants-destroy-palmyra-stone-lion-al-lat ISIS ‘destroys’ famous lion god statue in captured Syrian city of Palmyra… just days after promising locals they would not obliterate ancient monuments Depraved jihadis are said to have broken vow not to destroy the city Just hours after telling locals Palmyra was safe, they started destroying it 1,900-year-old Lion of Al-Lat statue was reportedly one of the first targets The celebrated monument was a tribute to a pre-Islamic Arab goddess By John Hall for MailOnline Published: 17:13, 28 May 2015 | Militants fighting for the Islamic State have reportedly destroyed a famous statue of a lion in the captured city of Palmyra – despite promising locals they would not obliterate the ancient city. Following their capture of Palmyra last Thursday, ISIS militants are understood to have won the support of much of the local population by promising not to destroy the city’s famous monuments. But it appears that promise was too much for the jihadis to keep, with eyewitnesses claiming they destruction of millenia-old Statues and buildings is already very much under way, with the most significant loss so far being the celebrated Lion of Al-Lat, which dates back to the first century AD. Destroyed: The 1,900-year-old Lion of Al-Lat statue (pictured before ISIS seized Palmyra) is said to have been destroyed by the terrorists. The celebrated monument was built as a tribute to a pre-Islamic Arab goddess Takeover: ISIS has raised its flag over ancient buildings in Palmyra while also slaughtering hundreds of locals – including women and children Chilling: Thick black smoke rising over Roman ruins that have stood for thousands of years in the central Syrian desert city. Following their capture of Palmyra last Thursday, ISIS militants are understood to have won the support of much of the local population by promising not to destroy the city’s famous monuments On guard: Heavily armed jihadis can be seen patrolling the steps of Palmyra’s ancient amphitheatre The lion statue was destroyed by ISIS militants on Saturday, according to the International Business Time, who quoted eyewitnesses on the ground in Palmyra. ‘I heard a loud noise, so I went up to the roof to see what is going on,’ one local man said. ‘I saw Daash crushing the ‘god lion’ statue with construction machines. There were many other crushed statues but I could not recognise the rest of them because they were totally ruined,’ he added, using an Arabic acronym for the terror group. The act of destroying the statue came just days after ISIS gathered Palmyra’s citizens together and publicly promised not to bulldoze the city’s ancient buildings, as they previously did in Nimrod. ‘As for the historical monuments, we will not touch it with our bulldozers as some tend to believe,’ ISIS commander Abu Leith was quoted as saying on a local radio broadcast. However the promise did come with a get-out clause, as the depraved fighters insisted they would ‘pulverise’ any statues they discovered in the city that the believed citizens secretly prayed to. The interior of Palmyra’s ancient Roman amphitheatre is seen in these pictures released by ISIS supporters Destroyed: This photograph shows rubble in Palmyra’s streets caused by Syrian regime airstrikes on ISIS Frontline of fighting: The buildings are said to have been reduced to rubble by Syrian regime warplanes The lion statue in Palmyra dates from the first century AD and stood outside the city’s famous Temple of Bel. The statue was dedicated to the pre-Islamic Arabian goddess Al-Lat, who was one of the three chief goddesses of Mecca along with Manat and al-Uzza. The Temple of Bel itself was built in 32 AD – six hundred years before the arrival of Islam in Syria – and was dedicated to the Semitic god Bel – who was worshiped by Palmyra citizens along with the lunar god Aglibol and the sun god Yarhibol. Since ISIS seized control of Palmyra, the temple and its surrounding area have been appropriated by ISIS militants, who are said to be using it as a military base. Locals who preserved the site for the last 1,900 years are now said to be banned from entering the area unless the are willing to sign up to become ISIS jihadis. Rubble: Debris from badly damaged and destroyed ancient buildings are seen littering the streets of Palmyra. Palmyra damaged by Syrian air force strikes. ISIS is accused of executing hundreds of people in and around Palmyra since it swept into the oasis city last week after a lightning advance across the desert from its stronghold in the Euphrates Valley to the east. But they have also released propaganda images showing the terrorists releasing prisoners from Tadmor Prison – with the convicts seen embracing one another in the streets after being freed. Yesterday the extremists ‘called people to watch’ as they executed 20 local men in a Roman ampitheatre in the ancient Syrian city. The men were shot dead in the restored ruin, which had been used for an annual festival in the city, in front of the crowd. The murdered locals were accused of being government supporters, according to a report from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. ‘IS executed 20 men by firing on them in front of a crowd gathered in Palmyra’s Roman theatre, after accusing them of fighting for the Syrian regime,’ Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told AFP. He added: ‘IS gathered a lot of people there on purpose, to show their force on the ground.’
- Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, Shahrzad., Cane, Mark.A. Seager, Richard, and Kushnir, Yochanan., 2015. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (USA).
- WN - Syria
- 452 - INTRODUCTION TO HEALTH-EARTH AND THE ANTHROPOCENECOLIN BUTLER - UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA Introduction: Health-Earth (H-Earth) is a newly established global collaboration which seeks to broaden the scope of environmental epidemiology (and global public health) to further embrace not only climate change but other interacting aspects of what McMichael termed "planetary overload", and which is also sometimes called "planetary boundaries" or “limits to growth”. H-Earth seeks to not only conduct research, but to teach and advocate for urgent change, given our now closing encroachment on limits to growth, both regionally and at the world scale. Methods: Novel methods and theories are needed to investigate and conceptualise the intersection of the Earth’s physical system with that of the global social system in the Anthropocene. Arising from this intersection are the determinants of global population health, both now and in the future. The elements which are most challenging in the scope of H-Earth studies are the scale (local to global), the time dimension (especially in the future) and a widened conceptualisation of “cause”. This presentation will sketch three case studies that link climatic and other “eco-social” factors with more “proximal” (obvious, better recognised) health determinants: (1) the Syrian conflict, (2) the rise in global food price since 2008 and (3) sea level rise and future migration from Bangladesh Results: A vast and expanding scientific literature – largely beyond the confines of human health - warns of an approaching crisis of great relevance to planetary health. Yet, understanding of this among human health scientists greatly lags this literature. Principal reasons include the timidity, short time-horizons, and conflicting interests of most funders. This combines with conceptual and emotional barriers among researchers that also inhibit the development of Health-Earth studies. Conclusions: This presentation introduces the topic, building on the Limits to Growth symposium, held in Basel in 2013. ---- 601 - LIMITS TO ADAPTATIONKRISTIE L. EBI - UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the rate of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with the magnitude and pattern of projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. 360 - EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS IN GLOBAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT: WHICH PARADIGM AND IN WHOSE BEST INTERESTS?COLIN LIONEL SOSKOLNE - UNIVERSITIES OF ALBERTA AND CANBERRA Introduction: Examining the many dimensions of a world destined to collapse under the weight of humankind’s current practices, one may ask how it is that science has so failed humanity in influencing policy. My focus in addressing this question is on the techniques used by professionals who permit themselves to be co-opted for manipulating science to foment doubt and manufacture uncertainty. Methods: Analysis of exposés that continue to emerge identify scientists engaged in the lucrative “doubt science” industry who use standard techniques for producing “junk science” to support the denial of harm. Being an applied science that bridges research, from in vitro and animal systems through public health and health policy, the methods of epidemiology can be manipulated to produce junk science. Results: The scientific paradigm can be used in health risk assessment to pit industry against both regulatory frameworks and the very communities around the world that regulation is intended to protect. The use of inappropriate methods and biased interpretation constitute the junk science industry’s basic toolkit, serving to undermine science in support both of the status quo and the dominant paradigm. Inappropriate methods and biased interpretation include poor study design and misguided ways of integrating established knowledge about mechanisms; qualitative approaches are often dismissed as unscientific. Techniques employed that skew and delay policy, and also create an unhelpful division among scientists, include the failure to make explicit those value judgements that underlie decisions about selecting appropriate standards of evidence to draw policy-relevant conclusions. Conclusions: Manufactured uncertainty is usually produced through funding from moneyed interests and is used to infiltrate the literature to undermine policy. Only when we collectively understand the influences on science can we defend ourselves to work in support of the public interest. The Division of Global Health, Department of Family and Preventive Medicine invites you to a special lecture: H-Earth is an emerging collaboration of 9 co-founding institutions in 7 countries, which seeks to find self-interested reasons to place the issue of greater health, social and environmental equity more central to the global health agenda. It argues that many of the most pressing problems global health faces are neither mainly social nor mainly environmental, but “eco-social”. It thus follows that solutions must also be eco-social, they cannot be mainly technological. Climate change exemplifies a global health problem which cannot be solved by applying resources mainly to high income populations. While most commentators have argued that climate change largely threatens to harm the health of the poor its foreseeable social consequences include mass migration, conflict, rising food prices, and social instability that would affect all social classes. H-Earth seeks to train, educate, and motivate a cohort of public health workers, in collaboration with other disciplines, to better integrate Earth system science not only with health, but planetary scale social science. About the Speaker: Colin Butler is a Professor at the University of Canberra, and an Australian Research Council Future Fellow on the topic of "Health and Sustainability: Australia in a Global Context". Dr. Butler is especially interested in future global health, including the consequences of global environmental changes such as to the climate, ecosystems, energy sources and resource depletion. He has published widely, and given many invited talks on topics including food security, population growth, ecology and infectious diseases. His collaborations include the World Health Organization, the Special Programme on Tropical Diseases Research, and the World Medical Association. He is co-founder of the NGO BODHI, which is active since 1989, especially in India. He is sole editor of Climate Change and Global Health (CABI, Sept 2014) and the senior editor of Health of Planet, People and Places Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding (ANU E Press, 2015). He is a member of the scientific steering committee of Global Environmental Change and Human Health, which part of the Earth System Science Partnership. His research interests include Sustainability, Human rights and their links with human health. Please RSVP to Kati Gonsalves at [email_address] Two suggestions – perhaps the second in better for the Scripps interface – but is it too social for them? (Have to run now, Wael, to dinner). Health Earth (H-Earth): why do we need it? What is it? What might it do? Prof Colin Butler The meaning of global health is shifting from traditional tropical medicine and international health to the aspiration of health for all on a single planet. Even in developed countries, sustainable health depends on improved health in poor places. Put simply, a fairer world is in the collective self-interest of us all. Three examples concern Ebola, antibiotic resistance and climate change. None of these problems can be satisfactorily addressed by focussing resources primarily in high income populations. The control of Ebola requires a vast expansion of “health literacy” not just in West Africa but among poorer people in developed countries. Inequality is an important driver of medical tourism which risks the unwelcome import of highly problematic antibiotic-resistant pathogens in exchange. While climate change appears most likely to harm the health of the poor it also risks social consequences (e.g. due to sea level rise) from which no-one can be safe. H-Earth is an emerging collaboration of nine co-founding institutions (7 countries) which seeks to make these and similar issues central to the global public health agenda. Its co-founders are linked through the late Prof Tony McMichael, who coined the term “Planetary Overload”. H-EARTH seeks to complement but not duplicate existing global health networks. It has a strong ethical basis. In summary, it argues that many of the most pressing problems global health faces are neither mainly social nor mainly environmental, but “eco-social”. It thus follows that solutions must also be eco-social, they cannot be mainly technological. Climate change and health from a Health Earth (H-Earth) perspective Prof Colin Butler H-Earth is an emerging collaboration of nine co-founding institutions (7 countries) which seeks to find self-interested reasons to place the issue of greater health, social and environmental equity more central to the global public health agenda. H-Earth seeks to complement but not duplicate existing global health networks. It has a strong ethical basis. It argues that many of the most pressing problems global health faces are neither mainly social nor mainly environmental, but “eco-social”. It thus follows that solutions must also be eco-social, they cannot be mainly technological. Climate change exemplifies a global health problem which cannot be solved by applying resources mainly to high income populations. While most commentators have argued that climate change largely threatens to harm the health of the poor its foreseeable social consequences include mass migration, conflict and social instability, including from rising food prices. These effects will feedback to affect us all. H-Earth seeks to train, educate, and motivate a cohort of public health workers, in collaboration with other disciplines, to better integrate Earth system science not only with health, but planetary scale social science. Best wishes Colin From: Al-Delaimy, Wael [mailto:waldelaimy@ucsd.edu] Sent: Sunday, 12 October 2014 5:32 PMTo: Colin.ButlerSubject: RE: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Colin, why don’t you send me a synopsis of that so that I send around and gauge interest from the scripps institute of oceanography to see if we hold the talk there or at the medical school. In general this is a new topic for health sciences so it might not attract as much audience but the undergraduate or scripps folks might be interested. Wael From: Colin.Butler [mailto:Colin.Butler@canberra.edu.au] Sent: Saturday, October 11, 2014 11:22 PMTo: Al-Delaimy, WaelSubject: RE: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Thanks very much Wael As for my talk what duration do you suggest and what is the likely audience? Broadly though, I propose to talk about Health-Earth: what it is, why we need it, what it might do. I am giving a similar talk in Liverpool, for 30 mins including questions, but I could talk a bit longer .. depends on what you think is the audience’s interest and attention span.. Also a similar talk in Seattle, most likely. Best wishes Colin From: Al-Delaimy, Wael [mailto:waldelaimy@ucsd.edu] Sent: Sunday, 12 October 2014 5:17 PMTo: Colin.Butler; Anne Hirsch ([email_address])Subject: RE: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Dear Colin, I will work with my assistant to arrange your booking in a nearby hotel. She will know if we can book and pay for it or if you have to pay for it and then we reimburse you. Also, please provide you the title of a talk, a short paragraph about the talk and a short bio for you so we can begin planning the talk and book the room. I will come pick you from the train station. More later.. Wael From: Colin.Butler [mailto:Colin.Butler@canberra.edu.au] Sent: Saturday, October 11, 2014 11:05 PMTo: Anne Hirsch ([email_address])Cc: Al-Delaimy, WaelSubject: travel confirmed LA - San Diego Dear Anne and Wael I have just booked a ticket on the train from LA to San Diego: Sunday Nov9 Depart 4:10 PM (Union Station) Arrive: 7:03 PM Wael, do you have a suggestion where I might stay? If possible I would like to stay walking distance from the campus. I depart San Diego Lindberg Field on Tues Nov 11 at 10.12 am Kind regards Colin Prof Colin D Butler Australian Research Council Future Fellow Faculty of Health, University of Canberra Visiting Fellow, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University Tel: +61(0)2-6201-2194 E: [email_address] W: http://www.canberra.edu.au/faculties/health/courses/public-health/staff-profiles/butler-colin www.bodhi.net.au https://twitter.com/ColinDavdButler blog “Climate Change and Global Health” (CABI) (Editor CD Butler) in press: Health of People, Places and Planet. Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding, Editors Colin D Butler, Jane Dixon, Tony Capon
- http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/28/vatican-climate-change-summit-to-highlight-moral-duty-for-action Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming At climate change summit Cardinal Peter Turkson warns on burning of fossil fuels, in a likely precursor to highly anticipated encyclical on the environment Pope Francis shakes hands with the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, during a meeting at the Vatican. Photograph: Osservatore Romano/Reuters Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Vatican City Tuesday 28 April 2015 23.30 AEST Last modified on Wednesday 29 April 2015 20.12 AEST Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Shares 13,194 Increasing use of fossil fuels is disrupting Earth on an “almost unfathomable scale”, a top Vatican official has said, warning that a “full conversion” of hearts and minds is needed if global warming is to be conquered. The statement by Cardinal Peter Turkson, Pope Francis’s point man for peace and justice issues, was made at a Vatican summit on Tuesday, which focused on climate change and poverty. His call for a moral awakening of politicians and people of faith is a likely precursor to the highly anticipated encyclical on the environment, which was drafted by Turkson and which Pope Francis is expected to release in June. “In our recklessness, we are traversing some of the planet’s most fundamental natural boundaries,” warned Turkson. “And the lesson from the Garden of Eden still rings true today: pride, hubris, self-centredness are always perilous, indeed destructive. The very technology that has brought great reward is now poised to bring great ruin.” Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary-general who delivered the keynote address at the summit, said he believed the pope’s encyclical – coupled with the pontiff’s planned speeches before the UN general assembly and a joint session of the US Congress – would have a profound impact on climate change negotiations. “[The encyclical] will convey to the world that protecting our environment is an urgent moral imperative and a sacred duty for all people of faith and people of conscience,” Ban said. While he declined to comment on any details of the encyclical following his morning meeting with the Argentinean pontiff – the document has already been written and is being translated – he said he was counting on the pope’s “moral voice and moral leadership” to help accelerate talks. Pope Francis’s September address will be the first time any pope has spoken before a special session of the general assembly. Advertisement Both Turkson and Ban emphasised that scientists and people of faith were united in their call for action. “Science and religion are not at odds on climate change. Indeed, they are fully aligned. Together, we must clearly communicate that the science of climate change is deep, sound and not in doubt,” Ban said. Turkson called on leaders of all faiths to be good role models. “Think of the positive message it would send for churches, mosques, synagogues, and temples all over the world to become carbon neutral,” he said. “At a time like this, the world is looking to faith leaders for guidance. This is why Pope Francis has chosen to issue an encyclical on protecting the environment at this unique moment in time.” The Protect the Earth, Dignify Humanity meeting has brought about a rare meeting of minds between scientists and religious officials on climate change, even if they frame their arguments in different ways. Teresa Berger, a professor at the Yale Divinity School, said she believed the encyclical would have an overarching theological vision – one of “a God-sustained universe, anchored in a theology of creation as articulated in the biblical witness. And based on this, Pope Francis will probably not mince words, but note as evil, for example, the sin of exploiting the Earth.” Francis has already said he believes global warming is mostly manmade and that a Christian who does not protect God’s creation “is a Christian who does not care about the work of God”. He has also linked environmental exploitation to social and economic inequality, saying: “An economic system centred on the god of money needs to plunder nature to sustain the frenetic rhythm of consumption that is inherent to it.” Activists hope the summit and the encyclical will influence the next round of international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will take place in Paris in November. The pope, whose foray into diplomacy helped spur negotiations between the US and Cuba, is expected to address the topic in a speech before the UN in New York in September. Some conservatives in the US, where the Republican party has fiercely resisted attempts to regulate greenhouse gases and questioned the scientific consensus on global warming, have criticised the pope for getting involved in the issue. “Francis sullies his office by using demagogic formulations to bully the populace into reflexive climate action with no more substantive guide than theologised propaganda,” Maureen Mullarkey wrote in First Things, a conservative journal. Another conservative group, the Heartland Institute, which seeks to discredit established science on global warming, held its own meeting in Rome on Monday – and will hold a second on Tuesday – in which officials derided the pope for taking on the issue. Heartland Institute takes climate foolishness to a Biblical level Read more “You demean the office that you hold and you demean the church whom it is your sworn duty to protect and defend and advance,” said Lord Christopher Monckton, a prominent climate sceptic and former policy adviser to the former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher. Monckton’s opinions have been refuted by scientists, who have called his statements “very misleading” and “profoundly wrong”. The summit at the Vatican has been organised by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, and its stated goal is to help “elevate the importance of the moral dimensions of protecting the environment in advance of the papal encyclical and to build a global movement to deal with climate change and sustainable development”.