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Equity Shares A Debt Free Solution to the Property Crash Chris Cook  FEASTA  Annual Lecture 2008 5 November 2008
We live in Interesting Times….. 06/06/09
… .some say, “the end of the financial system as we know it” 06/06/09
Most people have now heard of Peak Oil.... 06/06/09
… .but last year we reached the point of Peak Credit.... 06/06/09
...when the Irresistible Force of economic growth…. 06/06/09
...met the Immovable Object of finite resources... 06/06/09
...and Peak Oil 06/06/09
Where did it all go wrong? 06/06/09
To find out, we need to understand what banks actually do.... 06/06/09
A Bank is a Credit Institution which creates credit  as interest-bearing loans.... 06/06/09
... a Pyramid of Credit, on a base of “Regulatory Capital”... Bank Credit Bank Equity 06/06/09
...and this Credit constitutes >97% of the money we use.... £ 06/06/09
..but a Bank does not lend  pre-existing  money…. 06/06/09
… .it creates  new  money as interest–bearing credit…. 06/06/09
… .which is then deposited back into the system 06/06/09
But a Bank’s true economic function…. 06/06/09
...is as a Credit intermediary or middleman...  Lender £ 06/06/09 Borrower
...stepping between borrower and lender...  Bank Lender ( Depositor ) £ £ 06/06/09 Borrower
… and  guaranteeing  that the borrowers’ credit is good… 06/06/09
Interest is charged for the use of the guarantee Bank Interest Borrowers 06/06/09
..from which Interest is paid to Depositors.. Bank Interest Borrowers Depositors Interest 06/06/09
..Default and Operating costs deducted... Bank Interest Borrowers Depositors Interest Costs 06/06/09
..and a profit to Investors normally results Bank Interest Borrowers Depositors Interest Costs Investors 06/06/09
Demand for Credit has been so high… 06/06/09
… .that Banks began to “outsource” their guarantee to rid themselves of risk. 06/06/09
… and thus allow Equity to support more credit creation 06/06/09
Banks outsourced risk  totally  – through “securitising” debt and sale to investors…. 06/06/09
… temporarily  – with “Credit Derivatives” (a time-limited guarantee)…. 06/06/09
… and  partially  – using credit insurance from insurers such as AIG 06/06/09
The Result is a  bigger  Credit Pyramid than Banks alone could sustain… Investor Equity Credit Bank Equity 06/06/09
… and a “shadow banking system” of Investors with “sliced and diced” risk… Investor Equity Credit Bank Equity 06/06/09
This extended Pyramid of Credit funded the “Mother of all Bubbles” in US  property prices…. 06/06/09
… and servicing this credit finally exceeded the financial capacity of the US population... 06/06/09
… to the point of Peak Credit .... 06/06/09
In August 2007, the Bubble started to deflate and attention turned at last to defaults … 06/06/09
..but by now no-one knew where the Risk lay… Investor Equity Credit Bank Equity 06/06/09
Banks started to think, “if this is what  our  balance sheet looks like…..” 06/06/09
“… what does everyone else’s look like…..?” 06/06/09
...and Banks stopped lending to each other ... 06/06/09
The problem is not shortage of money -  liquidity  – Central Banks can handle that 06/06/09
… ..it is shortage of Equity -  Solvency  – which Central Banks  cannot  handle….. 06/06/09
Bank Equity is being eaten away by defaults…. 06/06/09
… and Investors will not recapitalise the shadow banking system... 06/06/09
The Result? Equity Credit 06/06/09
So, Credit is becoming both scarce and expensive….  06/06/09
… Central Banks are irrelevant….  06/06/09
… and further defaults in the shadow banking system…..  06/06/09
… .continue to drain money out of the system in a “deflationary spiral”.... 06/06/09
… .leading inevitably to a Depression.... 06/06/09
So much for the Credit Crunch problem 06/06/09
Clearly the solution cannot lie in creating more credit 06/06/09
So why not take a new approach to “Equity” investment instead? 06/06/09
Conventional Equity consists of shares in a Limited Company or “Corporation”…. 06/06/09
Ownership by a Corporation is what makes the “Private Sector” Private 06/06/09
While the Corporation may be conventional, it is  not  the only enterprise model there is 06/06/09
While all eyes have been on Credit innovation…  06/06/09
…” Asset-based” finance has been developing “under the radar”…. 06/06/09
Canadian “Income Trusts” use a Trust law framework to “unitise”  gross  Corporate revenues…. 06/06/09
Income Trust Income Trust Corporation Gross Revenues Unit Investors % % Units Costs Dividends? 06/06/09
Units are sold to risk averse investors such as pension funds… 06/06/09
… who consider investment less risky if they access corporate revenues… 06/06/09
… . before the management does…. 06/06/09
We are also seeing new asset classes such as Exchange Traded Funds (“ETF’s”)…. 06/06/09
… Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REIT’s”)… 06/06/09
… Hedge Funds using Limited Partnerships… 06/06/09
… and Islamic finance ”Sukuks” 06/06/09
In 2001 the UK introduced the Limited Liability Partnership (“LLP”)...... 06/06/09
....confusingly, an LLP is not legally a partnership... 06/06/09
… but a corporate entity with a legal personality independent of its members..... 06/06/09
… and limited liability, so members cannot lose more than they put in..... 06/06/09
… and...errr...that’s it ...there isn’t even a requirement for a written LLP agreement... 06/06/09
… which is why I call it an “Open” Corporate.. 06/06/09
… and it is being put to some very interesting uses... 06/06/09
Capital Partnership - Hilton Deal  2002 Capital Partnership LLP 10 UK Hotels Gross  Revenues  Hilton Group Capital User Consortium LLP  Capital Provider Bank Property Developer Hotel Specialist %  %  % % % 06/06/09
The Hilton Deal was the first example I have seen of a “Capital Partnership”... 06/06/09
...which I believe may perhaps be an optimal enterprise model  - as follows.. 06/06/09
Firstly, ownership of productive assets is transferred to a “Custodian”.... Assets Custodian Ownership 06/06/09
… then Investors put in Financial Capital in money, or “money’s worth”… 06/06/09 Assets Investors Custodian Ownership Financial Capital
… Managers put in Human Capital of time, expertise and experience.... Assets Investors Managers Custodian Ownership Human Capital Financial Capital 06/06/09
… and Users pay for the use of this Capital… Assets Investors Users Payment Managers % % Custodian Use 06/06/09
… resulting in a “Capital Partnership” Assets Investors Users Managers Custodian 06/06/09
A “Capital Partnership” enables new forms of Equity…  06/06/09
(a)  Equity Shares  - proportional (%age) ”n’ths” such as billionths.....  06/06/09
… ..which  may  be bought and sold, but never redeemed, because there must always be 100% 06/06/09
(b) Redeemable  Units  – eg Kilo Watt Hours;  06/06/09
...with a value in exchange, but with no continuing rights to production  06/06/09
Units hold their value because they are  asset-based  on value provided by the issuer … 06/06/09
… .rather than being  deficit-based  upon a claim over value issued by a Bank 06/06/09
€ nergy investment is for another time... 06/06/09
..today we are looking at the potential of Land Partnerships.... 06/06/09
...to solve the current Credit Crash. 06/06/09
Imagine a developer has unsold homes.... 06/06/09
....and a Bank on his tail .... 06/06/09
...who in turn has a Central Bank on their tail.... 06/06/09
First, we transfer the houses to a Custodian Houses Custodian 06/06/09
Then we rent the houses affordably but at an index-linked rental.... Houses Occupiers Custodian Rental 06/06/09
....noting that because rents are affordable, failure to pay is  by definition  unlikely... 06/06/09
Then we appoint a Manager and give him a proportional share in the rentals.... Houses Occupiers Custodian % Rental 06/06/09 Manager
....so that with a stake in the outcome he has an interest in doing a good job... 06/06/09
....and the Investors complete the picture Houses Investors Occupiers Custodian % % Rental 06/06/09 Managers
Occupiers may “Rent to Buy” - simply by paying rent early, they become Investors... 06/06/09
...and end mortgage slavery as rental may then be paid in Equity Shares, not cash... 06/06/09
...while maintaining the property themselves will give them “Sweat Equity”.... 06/06/09
For Investors it’s an index-linked, property-based investment... 06/06/09
..with low risk, since affordability=certainty.. 06/06/09
...giving a perfect match for the liabilities of the pension funds...  06/06/09
...who will buy from distressed developers their Equity Shares in the Rental Pool....  06/06/09
...so that they can repay distressed Banks...  06/06/09
...and make the Central Bank happy 06/06/09
Lets have a quick look at the numbers 06/06/09
Imagine a Pool of a thousand homes with outstanding debt of €200 million  ,[object Object],[object Object],06/06/09
Imagine a Pool of 1,000 homes with outstanding debt of €200 million  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/06/09
Let’s have a look at undeveloped land... 06/06/09
Conventional development is based on transactions – the “Four B’s”..... 06/06/09
Borrow, Buy, Build and B...er Off... 06/06/09
First, the land is transferred to a Custodian Land Custodian 06/06/09
...and the Land Owner becomes an Investor Land Land Owner Custodian Land  Value 06/06/09
...as does the Council, in return for planning permission... Land Council Custodian Value  of Planning permission 06/06/09
...and so do the Contractors at least for their profit margin... Land Contractors Custodian Profit  Margin 06/06/09
...and Risk-Takers provide € to pay Contractors’ agreed costs... Land Risk-Takers Custodian € 06/06/09
....while the Developer invests “Intellectual Capital” of concept and services... Land Investors Land-owner, Council, Contractors, Risk Takers Developer Custodian Value Value 06/06/09
When the development is occupied... Houses Investors Occupiers Custodian % % Rental 06/06/09 Managers
...the Development Investors have a choice of selling their Equity Shares.... 06/06/09
...or keeping them for their pension 06/06/09
Everyone has a stake in the outcome.... 06/06/09
....with an interest in high quality, energy efficient housing .... 06/06/09
....because this lowers the cost of occupation over time .... 06/06/09
....which makes the Rental value higher and makes Equity Shares more valuable 06/06/09
So we go from a  transaction  model... Developer Property Buyer £ £ Property Buyer £ 06/06/09 Land Owner
...to  a  service provider  model where property is never sold again... 06/06/09
...but service providers bring together Occupiers with properties... 06/06/09
...and property Investors with property investment 06/06/09
A Land Partnership is not an  Organisation ... 06/06/09
...it does not  own  anything,  do  anything,  employ  anyone, or  contract  with anyone... 06/06/09
...it is simply a framework within which the stakeholders self organise ... 06/06/09
...with a mutual interest in developing land sustainably. 06/06/09
So let’s replace conventional secured debt with a new form of Community Equity... 06/06/09
...simply by  Unitising  pools of Rentals 06/06/09
… and turn the Risk Pyramid the right way up! Management Equity Investor  Units Community Equity 06/06/09
It’s not Rocket Science 06/06/09
Thank You 06/06/09

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