- Silver prices currently sit near 5-year lows, despite stronger-than-ever fundamentals including diminishing above-ground inventories and rising industrial demand.
- With more claims on silver in existence than could possibly be delivered, an upside price explosion is setting up as a "silver squeeze" develops from shortages.
- The author predicts silver prices will rise dramatically to a minimum of $140 per ounce, though some analysts predict it could reach as high as $1,000 per ounce, as the paper market ruptures due to inability to deliver on contracts from physical shortages.
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The coming-silver-squeeze
1. The Coming Silver Squeeze
History Suggests Price Objective of At Least $140
By Stefan Gleason
Investor Question: Can you recommend a highly
liquid investment that offers privacy, portability,
is essential in a variety of applications, will
protect me from ongoing dollar devaluation, and
offers the potential for spectacular returns?
Short Answer: Silver
Now for the longer answer. The supply and demand picture for silver
is, in our view, extraordinarily bullish. Meanwhile, a growing global
scramble for hard assets to protect against currency debasement only
adds to the bull case. The silver price – still well below its all-time
nominal high from 1980 – seems destined to rise dramatically.
Historical precedent coupled with current silver fundamentals point
to the likelihood of an explosive super spike in the silver price and a
high price plateau beyond that. The last super spike in silver began
in 1979, after silver rose steadily from a starting price below $2.00
per ounce. After a decade of gains, silver traded at around $5.50 per
ounce. Just 12 months later, in January 1980, silver recorded a blow-
off top at $49.45 – an incredible 800% upsurge over the course of a
single year!
Of course, circumstances were different then. The Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market. (There was
no true shortage, and their silver squeeze was easily thwarted by regulators who abruptly changed the rules
on the paper trading market.) Double-digit inflation was raging, but the Federal Reserve actually responded
by raising rates dramatically. And the market collapsed as spectacularly as it had risen.
Silver’s Fundamental Picture Looks Far More Bullish Than 1979
The fundamentals today auguring for far higher silver prices are far more compelling and more sustainable
than they were in the 1970s. A corner may well be developing in the silver market, but it’s the whole world
doing the cornering this time! Some key points to consider:
The U.S. is reaching record highs in debt and the tipping point may come sooner than later. In
Silver prices currently
sit near 5-year lows,
despite stronger-than-
ever fundamentals.
With more claims on
silver in existence
than could possibly
be delivered, an
upside price explosion
is setting up.
Position yourself to
profit from the coming
silver mania – it’s
never been easier!
MO
NEY META
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EGNAHCX
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S P E C I A L 2 0 1 5 R E P O R T
www.MoneyMetals.com
2. MO
NEY META
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2 www.MoneyMetals.com
1980, the national debt was a mere $930
billion. Today, it’s over $18 trillion officially,
with tens of trillions more in “off budget”
debts and obligations accumulated in the
last 40 years. The Federal Reserve’s balance
sheet now tops $4 trillion, with no end in
sight to ultra-accommodative policies.
Above ground silver inventories are
diminishing. In 1980, available above
ground stockpiles of silver were estimated
to be 4 billion ounces. Today, many estimate
these stocks at less than 1 billion ounces.
And annual silver consumption has exceeded
supply in many years. As industry finds new
ways to use silver, the silver market could
experience a long-term supply deficit, and
inventory depletion
would then accelerate.
Silver mining
production appears to
be reaching its peak.
There may be 18 billion
ounces of extractable
silver left according
to the according to
the U.S. Geological
Survey. If this is
indeed the case, there
won’t be enough
supply left due to the
steady increase in demand. Just last year,
the demand for silver rose to a record
1,081 million ounces according to The
Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey
2014. While the demand for silver rises,
production has increased less rapidly. So
not only are we running out of silver, the
supply is diminishing faster than ever.
Global silver demand is high and getting
higher. Considering the record growth in
silver demand last year, all signs are pointing
to a continuous increase. In 1980, the world
population was 4.6 billion. We’ve since
added another 2.5 billion people. Silver
is required in a multitude of industrial,
electrical,
consumer,
health, and
energy-related
applications
critical to
today’s modern
economy.
(Silver is the
world’s best
conductor of
electricity and
heat, best natural biocide, and best reflector
of light.)
Unlike other metals, silver is consumed in very
small increments, making recycling very difficult. In
other words, once silver
is used, it is usually
gone forever practically
speaking.
At the same time, silver
is generally an incidental
cost in the products
that use it – such that a
dramatic increase in the
price will not necessarily
cause substitution. A hint
of shortages could cause
industry users suddenly
to hoard the metal and
drain remaining available inventories.
Investor demand is surging. From 1990 to
2005, investors had been net sellers of silver.
In 2006, we witnessed what appears to be a
major sea change in the market. The public
again became net buyers of silver. In 2014,
demand for silver American Eagles soared
to a record-high of more than 44,000,000
coins – a number that would surely have
been higher if demand had not completely
overwhelmed the government-run mint’s
production capabilities at times. Other
government and private mints around the
world have been cranking out silver coins,
rounds, and bars at record setting levels.
As the public wakes up to precious metals
ownership, sales of Silver Eagles have
reached all-time record highs.
Solar and many other high-tech
applications use silver.
4. The institutional big boys who are influencing the
silver market with gigantic short positions can continue
getting away with it only so long as they are never
forced to deleverage and make good on their promises
– to cover their short sales with actual, physical
silver. Whistleblower Harvey Organ stated in a recent
interview, “The game ends when the people that own
all these paper obligations say ‘enough, I’m going to
be taking delivery’... The Comex [futures exchange]
will be drained, and just about every physical facility
globally will be drained.”
Why $140 Per-Ounce Silver
May Be Too Conservative
a Price Projection
Exactly when a full-fledged “run on the bank” in
silver will occur is difficult to predict. How high
prices will ultimately go in the silver squeeze that
ensues is impossible to say. But it is reasonable to
expect that long-term investors who buy physical
silver at today’s prices will be richly rewarded.
We believe that sometime in the relatively near future,
the paper market for trading silver will rupture, taking
prices to multiples of where they’re at today, as a mad
scramble for limited quantities of actual, physical
silver ensues. To equal the 1980 high in 2013 dollars
(based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’Consumer
Price Index) silver would have to reach $140 per
ounce. That is our minimum target price.
What about more realistic measures of inflation?
(There’s no perfectly precise measure, but the
government’s methodology has been corrupted by
efforts to understate price-level increases.) Some
argue that based on alternative inflation measures,
silver prices would have to get up to $300 just to
equal their 1980 peak in real terms.
Because currency depreciation is an ongoing
process, any price targets based on inflation
adjustments will need to be revised upward over
time. And because the fundamentals for silver are
more compelling now than ever before, it’s quite
conceivable that silver prices will move much
higher in real terms than they did in January 1980.
In fact, a few well-regarded analysts have argued
silver could rise as high as $1,000 someday.
Predictions like these might seem outlandish to
most, but there is really no telling what could happen
during a currency crisis – especially if widespread
physical shortages develop in this vital metal.
Silver is a notoriously volatile metal and can be
expected to pull back swiftly and severely after any
manic move. However, unlike the last time around,
which saw silver give up the gains produced by the
super spike (with sub-$4 levels seen in the 1990s),
this move likely isn’t going to be a fluke.
The supply shock that’s coming will affect the
market on a more permanent basis. The “poor man’s
gold” could collapse from a hypothetical peak of
$300 back down to $100, for example, but we aren’t
likely ever to return to the conditions that allow for
silver to trade at today’s low prices.
Not Too Late to Beat the
Coming Silver Mania – Yet
If you’re not on board with a position in physical
silver bullion, there is still time to buy before the
mania phase begins. But there may not be a whole
lot of time left. Once the silver squeeze begins and
what little inventories still exist are depleted, it may
become next to impossible to buy silver through
normal channels at an advantageous price.
One of the best ways to get started, as we have
always emphasized, is by accumulating one-ounce
silver rounds/coins and pre-1965 90% silver coins in
your physical possession. They are easy to handle,
easy to sell or barter with, and can still be obtained
at low premiums. Contact us as indicated below to
get started.
MO
NEY META
LS
EGNAHCX
E
MO
NEY META
LS
EGNAHCX
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P.O. Box 2599 • Eagle, ID 83616 • www.MoneyMetals.com
Tel (800) 800-1865 • Fax (866) 861-5174