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ARC Regional Forecasts October 2019

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Monthly Snapshot from the Atlanta Regional Commission covers population forecasts through the year 2050.

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ARC Regional Forecasts October 2019

  1. 1. Draft Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.org Gazing Into The Crystal Ball: Exploring ARC Forecasts And Future Race and Age Trends October 2019
  2. 2. Draft • ARC forecasts the region to add around 2.9 million new residents between 2015 and 2050, which will bring the 21-county area’s total population to 8.6 million by 2050. • The region’s growing diversity will continue. The share of people of color will grow significantly, while the share of White population will decline from around 47 percent today to 31 percent by 2050. • ARC forecasts that there will be more than a million residents age 75 and older by 2050, making this age cohort the fastest-growing in the region. • Gwinnett will surpass Fulton as the region’s most populous county by 2050.
  3. 3. Draft 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 Year Population & Employment Comparative Forecast Total Population Total Employment 2015 – 2050 Population and Employment Forecast As Metro Atlanta’s population increases, employment in the region will also increase. By 2050, the region is projected to be home to more than 8.6 million people and about 4.7 million jobs.
  4. 4. Draft Population Growth Driven by People of Color While growth in the White population will be stagnant, growth in Black, Hispanic and Other (which includes Asian) population will grow dramatically between 2015 and 2050. -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2015-2050 Overall Change in Total Population By Race/Ethnicity Black Hispanic Other White
  5. 5. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% % Black % Hispanic % Other % White Shares of Population by Race/Ethnicity 2015 2050 Shares of White Population Decrease As can be seen, while the overall shares of people of color increase between 2015 and 2050, the share of White population is forecast to decrease from around 47 percent in 2015 to around 31 percent by 2050.
  6. 6. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% % Ages 0-22 % Ages 23-38 % Ages 39-54 % Ages 55 - 74 % 75+ 2015 2050 We’re Getting Older… Here we are looking at the change in the shares of particular age cohorts. The age ranges correspond to what we would consider today the different “generations,” i.e. the 0-22 year olds are Gen Z; 23-38=Millennials, 39-54=Gen X; 55-74=Boomers; and 75+=Silent Generation. As can be seen, the overall share of population is forecast to grow the most in the two oldest age cohorts. Note: We are not tracking cohorts through time. In other words, the 23-38 age cohort is considered to be Millennials today. By 2050, the Millennial generation will be age 58-73 in our forecast horizon.
  7. 7. Draft … But All Age Cohorts are Adding Population In the previous slide we showed that only the oldest age cohorts are forecast to experience an increase in the share of overall population. As this chart shows, ALL age cohorts are forecast to add population. It is the overall composition of the population that will get older. 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Ages 0-22 Ages 23-38 Ages 39-54 Ages 55 - 74 Ages 75+ 2015 2050
  8. 8. Draft A More Traditional Way to Look At Age 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 0-18 19-34 35-54 55-64 65+ Population Totals by Age 2015 2050 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 0-18 19-34 35-54 55-64 65+ Population Shares by Age 2015 2050 These charts simply show a more traditional grouping of age cohorts to tell the same story - we are getting older. The 65+ age cohort will almost triple between 2015 and 2050, with almost 1.9 million residents being older than 65 in the 21 county region by 2050.
  9. 9. Draft County Level Forecasts 2015 2050 County (From the Forecast Model) ARC Scenario 1: Slower Regional Growth ARC Scenario 2: Higher Regional Growth ARC Scenario 3: The Preferred Scenario Other Forecasts: GA Office of Planning and Budget Other Forecasts: Woods and Poole Barrow 75,400 115,206 128,193 120,600 156,132 140,889 Bartow 102,700 138,635 153,540 164,900 132,050 134,704 Carroll 114,500 149,671 165,565 156,400 155,840 163,533 Cherokee 235,900 357,950 400,426 374,800 430,047 456,974 Clayton 274,000 383,786 405,143 393,000 454,670 365,207 Cobb 741,300 1,108,929 1,192,977 1,035,800 956,370 1,243,853 Coweta 138,400 205,073 228,760 215,000 215,851 236,722 Dawson 23,300 30,314 34,225 32,000 37,334 48,868 DeKalb 734,900 1,043,994 1,136,144 1,012,000 874,221 854,309 Douglas 140,700 185,312 202,557 192,500 230,150 252,948 Fayette 110,700 141,736 155,555 147,400 147,721 220,108 Forsyth 212,400 403,949 441,769 440,400 542,479 477,205 Fulton 1,010,600 1,450,518 1,578,299 1,473,300 1,368,783 1,250,579 Gwinnett 895,800 1,331,977 1,448,358 1,484,700 1,448,350 1,885,749 Hall 193,500 270,921 297,414 282,100 282,030 286,460 Henry 217,700 296,864 329,316 370,400 424,550 545,716 Newton 105,500 148,165 161,052 153,600 169,547 152,861 Paulding 152,200 243,231 267,163 253,200 276,134 365,547 Rockdale 88,900 109,255 118,315 112,900 136,858 127,099 Spalding 64,100 87,641 96,716 91,500 82,325 76,021 Walton 88,400 119,767 134,878 126,100 140,803 137,008 21-County Total 5,721,000 8,322,894 9,076,365 8,632,700 8,662,245 9,422,360
  10. 10. Draft 2015 – 2050 Population Forecasts by County Every county is forecast to add population by 2050 (the growth is represented by the red bar), with Gwinnett forecast to be the largest county. 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Total Population Growth Total Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050
  11. 11. Draft Every county is forecast to add population by 2050 (the growth is represented by the red bar), with Gwinnett forecast to be the largest county. 2015 – 2050 Population Forecasts by County 50.89% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage Growth County Percerntage Growth Total Regional Growth
  12. 12. Draft Population Forecasts by Race
  13. 13. DraftRace/Ethnicity Trends: Black Populations (Total Change) Black populations in Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry counties are projected to grow faster than those in all other counties between now and 2050. Within the next 30 years, Cobb is projected to add about 166,000 Black residents and Gwinnett is slated to add another 174,000, while Henry is forecast add another 108,000 Black residents. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Black (Non-Hispanic) Population Growth Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050
  14. 14. Draft 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Black (Non-Hispanic) Share of Total Population % Black NH, 2015 % Black NH, 2050 This chart shows how the share of Black population in each county is forecast to change, with most counties forecast to experience an increase in the share of Black population by 2050. Race/Ethnicity Trends: Black Populations (Share Change)
  15. 15. Draft Hispanic populations are forecast to increase faster than any other racial/ethnic group throughout the next 35 years. Five counties – Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton, and Gwinnett – are each forecast to add over 100,000 Hispanic residents by 2050. Race/Ethnicity Trends: Hispanic Populations (Total Change) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Hispanic Population Growth Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050
  16. 16. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Hispanic Share of Total Population % Hispanic, 2015 % Hispanic, 2050 This chart shows how the share of Hispanic population in each county is forecast to change, with almost all counties forecast to experience an increase in the share of Hispanic population by 2050. Race/Ethnicity Trends: Hispanic Populations (Share Change)
  17. 17. Draft The region’s population that is identified as Other (two or more races, Asian, Native American, Alaskan/Pacific Islander) in our forecasting model is projected to grow fastest in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett. In Gwinnett county, the population that identifies as “Other” is projected to more than triple within the next 30 years, growing from 129,000 to over 392,000. Race/Ethnicity Trends: “Other” Populations (Total Change) -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Other (Non-Hispanic) Population Growth Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050
  18. 18. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Other (Non-Hispanic) Share of Total Population % Other NH, 2015 % Other NH, 2050 This chart shows how the share of Other (two or more races, Asian, Native American, Alaskan/Pacific Islander) population in each county is forecast to change, with almost all counties forecast to experience an increase in the share of this population by 2050. Race/Ethnicity Trends: “Other” Populations (Share Change)
  19. 19. Draft Roughly half of the region’s counties will experience a decline in overall White population between 2015 and 2050, which is a continuation of a trend over the past decade or so. Race/Ethnicity Trends: White Populations (Total Change) -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 White Population Growth Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050
  20. 20. Draft 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% White (Non-Hispanic) Relative Percentage % White NH, 2015 % White NH, 2050 Race/Ethnicity Trends: White Populations (Share Change) This chart shows how the share of White population in each county is forecast to change, with almost all counties forecast to experience a decrease in the share of this population by 2050.
  21. 21. Draft Population Forecasts by Age Cohort
  22. 22. DraftAge Trends: Ages 0-22 (Total Change) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Ages 0 – 22 Population Age 0 - 22 Age 0-22 Change Between now and 2050, all counties will welcome more young people (ages 0 to 22). The more diverse counties of the urban core– Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett – will experience the greatest increases. Note: This age cohort can be considered, for this research, as “Generation Z” today.
  23. 23. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Ages 0 – 22 Share of Total Population % Age 0-22, 2015 % Age 0-22, 2050 Age Trends: Ages 0-22 (Share Change) This chart shows how the share of the 0-22 age cohort in each county is forecast to change, with all counties forecast to experience a decrease in the share of this age cohort by 2050.
  24. 24. Draft 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Ages 23 – 38 Population Age 23 - 38 Age 23-38 Change Similarly to the young population in the metro Atlanta region, population growth for the region’s young adults (ages 23 to 38) will increase in every county. Age Trends: Ages 23-38 (Total Change) Note: This age cohort can be considered, for this research, as “Millennials” today.
  25. 25. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Ages 23 - 38 Share of Total Population % Age 23-38, 2015 % Age 23-38, 2050 This chart shows how the share of the 23-38 age cohort in each county is forecast to change, with almost all counties forecast to experience a decrease in the share of this age cohort by 2050. Fayette County, which has the oldest median age today among the region, is the only county forecast to experience an increase in the share of this age cohort. Age Trends: Ages 23-38 (Share Change)
  26. 26. Draft 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Ages 39 – 54 Population Age 39 - 54 Age 39-54 Change Metro Atlanta’s middle-aged population (ages 39 to 54) is projected to increase in all counties between now and 2050. Forsyth, Fulton, and Gwinnett are each projected to welcome more than 40,000 people in this prime working-age group between now and 2050 to their respective counties. Age Trends: Ages 39-54 (Total Change) Note: This age cohort can be considered, for this research, as “Generation X” today
  27. 27. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Ages 39 – 54 Share of Total Population % Age 39-54, 2015 % Age 39-54, 2050 This chart shows how the share of the 39-54 age cohort in each county is forecast to change, with almost all counties forecast to experience a slight decrease in the share of this age cohort by 2050. Again, Fayette, along with Spalding (which are the two oldest counties today), are bucking this overall trend and are forecast to experience an increase in the share of this cohort. Age Trends: Ages 39-54 (Share Change)
  28. 28. Draft Population growth will be significant for the region’s older adults (ages 55 to 74), especially in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett. Between now and 2050, the region’s four fastest-growing counties – Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett – are projected to collectively add about 485,000 older adults to the region within the next 30 years. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Ages 55 – 74 Population Age 55 - 74 Age 55-74 Change Age Trends: Ages 55-74 (Total Change)
  29. 29. Draft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Ages 55 – 74 Share of Total Population % Age 55-74, 2015 % Age 55-74, 2050 This chart shows how the share of the 55-74 age cohort in each county is forecast to change, with all counties forecast to experience an increase in the share of this age cohort by 2050. Age Trends: Ages 55-74 (Share Change)
  30. 30. Draft 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 Ages 75+ Population Age 75+ Age 75+ Change Between now and 2050, all of metro Atlanta’s counties are projected to experience tremendous increases in their senior populations (ages 75+). All counties are projected to add between 2 to 6 times their current senior populations within the next 30 years, with most of the population growth most likely concentrated in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. Age Trends: Ages 75+ (Total Change)
  31. 31. Draft 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Ages 75+ Share of Total Population % Age 75+, 2015 % Age 75+, 2050 This chart shows how the share of the 75+ age cohort in each county is forecast to change, with all counties forecast to experience substantial increase in the share of this age cohort by 2050. Age Trends: Ages 75+ (Share Change)
  32. 32. Draft Employment Forecasts by Sector
  33. 33. Draft Metro Atlanta Employment by Sector -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities Mining Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Information Government Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Finance and Insurance Construction Other Services, except Public Administration Accommodation and Food Services Educational services; private Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Administrative and Waste Management Services Retail Trade 2015 - 2050 Change in Employment by Industry (sorted by Total Employment in 2015) 2015 Change, 2015 - 2050 As the region ages, it should come as no surprise that the healthcare sector is forecast to grow the most, surpassing the retail sector as the largest by 2050
  34. 34. Draft Employment by County 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Employment Forecasts Total Employment, 2015 Change: 2015-2050 In looking at total employment at the county level, the above chart shows that Fulton will continue to be the epicenter of employment for the region, nearing 1.2 million jobs by 2050. Note: When looking at county-level and even smaller area trends for employment, we remove the self-employed from the totals because those jobs are difficult to put in a specific location. However, at the regional level, we leave the self-employed in the totals. Thus, summing the county totals will not equal the regional total.

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