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Bryan DeNeve
Senior VP Finance & CFO
CAPITAL POWER
Infrastructure & Utilities Conference
February 4, 2016
Capital Power overview
 Growth-oriented North
American IPP with ownership
interest in 18 facilities in
Canada and the US totaling
more than 3,200 MW(1)
 Young and modern fleet of
assets
 Proven operating, development
& construction expertise
 Strong contracted cash flow
base supports annual dividend
growth(2)
 TSX (CPX); market cap of
$1.7B(3); average daily trading
of 520K(3) shares
1) Based on MW owned capacity as of Dec 31/15; excludes Sundance PPA (371 MW).
2) Subject to Board approval.
3) Market capitalization as of Dec 31/15. Based on average daily trading volume on all stock exchanges in 2015.
2
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan
 Current Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) replaced
with CCR in 2018
 Electricity generators will pay $30/tonne starting in 2018 for
greenhouse gas emissions above electricity sector
performance standard
 Impact on Genesee 3 / Keephills 3 will be offset by higher pool
prices and by utilizing our inventory of low-cost carbon offset
credits through 2020
Carbon Competitiveness Regulation (CCR)
Increase in power prices will partially offset higher
carbon costs
3
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan
 Phase out coal-fired power by 2030 and replace at least 50-
75% of retired coal generation with renewable power
 Panel recommended central procurement of renewables, by
offering Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) to renewables
developers through a competitive process
 Wind expected to be the more dominant fuel type in near-term
 Based on current expectations, process likely to start in 2016
with first in-service date at the end of 2019
Well-positioned to develop and build renewables and
natural gas in Alberta
4
Accelerated phase-out of coal facilities to be replaced with
renewables and merchant natural gas
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan
 New renewable generation will be timed to replace two-thirds
of retiring coal-fired generation
 Ensures existing assets are not adversely impacted by
oversupply
 Ensures new gas-fired generation continues to be built based
on pricing signals from the energy only market
 Allows existing market design to continue to function as it has
over the past 15 years
Alberta’s deregulated market maintained providing
regulatory certainty for existing generating assets
Maintenance of Alberta market design
5
 Alberta Government committed to avoid “unnecessarily stranding
capital” and “treat companies fairly”
 A component of compensation for early retirement could be the
ratio of reduced asset life to the current remaining life multiplied
by Net Book Value (NBV)
 NBV of our coal assets is ~$2 billion at end of 2015
 Remaining life of our coal units are 139 years. A “2030 retirement
date” reduces remaining life by 79 years (57% reduction)
 Funds raised by CCR is to estimated to be $3 billion per year
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan
Compensation for accelerated phase-out of coal
We believe Capital Power will be fairly compensated
6
Carbon competitiveness regulation
 Required to comply with Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) through
to the end of 2017. Levy under Carbon Competitiveness Regulation (CCR)
effective starting in 2018.
Use of existing offset credits and higher pool prices will
more than offset higher compliance costs through 2020
2017 2018 2019 2020
Compliance regulation SGER CCR
Compliance requirement 20% 55% to 65%
(Down to best gas standard)
Market compliance cost
($/tonne)
$30 $30 $30+inflation+2%
(based on Panel’s recommendation)
 Impact on Genesee 3 / Keephills 3 will be offset by higher pool prices and
inventory of low-cost carbon offset credits through 2020
 CPX bears the Genesee 1 & 2 compliance costs post-2020 after PPA expiry
7
Estimated incremental impacts of CCR(1)
The expected uplift from the expiry of the G1/G2 PPA
offsets the impact of the new carbon tax in 2021
EBITDA impact ($M) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total coal EBITDA impact due to CCR $30 ($25) ($65) ($120)
EBITDA increase from natural gas &
wind facilities $50 $30 $30 $20
Total portfolio EBITDA impact $80 $5 ($35) ($100)
1) Carbon Competitiveness Regulation does not include the impact of expected compensation for early coal retirement.
8
 Contracted revenue under Genesee 1 & 2 PPA is expected to be
$37/MWh in 2020
 Expected revenue will be $60 to $70/MWh when the output is sold
into the AB merchant market, which will now be partially eroded by
the higher carbon tax
Carbon tax: impact on pool price
 Some variable cost increase will be passed through power prices
1) Assumes allocation based on Cleanest Gas Standard of 0.4T/MWh, and the following intensities (T/MWh): coal = 1.05, Simple cycle & cogen = 0.55,
Combined cycle = 0.45
9
Alberta Climate Leadership Plan
 2018 to 2020 (~ +$20M average EBITDA(1) per year)
- Coal compliance costs partly recovered through higher power prices
+ Utilize existing inventory of carbon credits
+ Higher power prices benefits natural gas and wind facilities
+ Reduction in compliance costs for Shepard
 2021 to 2029 (~ -$100M average EBITDA per year)
- Coal compliance costs partly recovered through modestly higher power
prices
+ Modestly higher power prices benefits natural gas and wind facilities
+ Reduction in compliance costs for Shepard
+ Participate in new generation
+ Potential for compensation
 2030 to 2061 (?)
+ Expect to receive fair compensation for accelerated coal retirements
Expected incremental impacts
1) EBITDA is a Non-GAAP financial measure, see page 45.
10
Continued strong cash flow generation
 Cash flow expected to increase
~4% in 2016 to $405M
 ~42% of 2016 FFO is
discretionary cash flow(2)
 At the mid-point of 2016
guidance range, generating
~$175M in DCF before growth
capex to reinvest in
renewables and natural gas
opportunities
Funds from operations (FFO)(1)
1) 2016 FFO target represents the mid-point of $380M - $430M guidance range. FFO is a non-GAAP financial measure. See page 45.
2) Discretionary cash flow (DCF) is a non-GAAP financial measure. DCF = FFO - sustaining capex - total common and preferred share dividends.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2014 2015E 2016T
42%
21%
15%
47%
38%
42%
41%
17%
($M)
37%
(1)
Discretionary cash flow
Gross dividends (common & preferred shares)
Sustaining capex
11
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2012 2013 2014 2015T 2016T
Beaufort
Macho Springs
K2 Wind
Shepard
PD&N
Halkirk
Quality Wind
Island Generation
North Carolina
Kingsbridge 1
Genesee 1&2
Improving contracted cash flow(1,2,3)
($M)
3 wind
projects}
Shepard
& K2
Wind
}
1) Margins have been averaged over the periods except in the year of commissioning.
2) Only includes contracted portions of Halkirk and Shepard plants.
3) Cash distributions from K2 Wind and EBITDA for all other plants.
Substantial expansion in contracted operating margin from 2012-16
Substantial expansion in contracted operating margin from 2012 to 2016
12
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
2015T 2016T 2017T 2018T
1) Merchant margin is calculated using $40/MWh and $70/MWh and is based on hedged position as at November 30, 2015.
2) Based on existing plants plus committed development projects. Financial obligations include interest payments (including interest during construction), sustaining
contracted capital expenditures and general & administration expenses.
3) Dividends include common and preferred dividends. Assumes consistent common dividend growth in 2016-18.
4) Forwards as of November 30, 2015.
Contracted margin
Contracted + merchant ($70/MWh)
Contracted + merchant ($40/MWh)
Operating margin(1) to financial obligations(2) and dividends(3)
Minimum AB power prices required to
cover financial obligations and dividends(3)
2015F $0/MWh
2016F $0/MWh
2017F Low $30s
2018F Low $40s
Contracted + merchant (forwards(4))
Strong financial coverage
13
Financial strength
 Investment grade credit ratings
recently reaffirmed by S&P and DBRS
 Debt-to-capital ratio remains below
long-term target of 40% - 50%
Debt to total capitalization
33% 33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2014 2015T
Long-term target 40% - 50%
Strong balance sheet and investment grade credit rating
Agency Ratings Outlook
S&P BBB- / P-3 Stable
DBRS BBB / Pfd-3 (low) Stable
Corporate Liquidity(1)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2015T
1) December 31, 2015 forward-looking estimate.
14
1) Metrics applicable to Capital Power L.P.
2) Based on S&P’s weighted average ratings methodology.
Credit metrics(1)
Above DBRS financial criteria for current rating
EBITDA/Adj. Interest
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2015T 2016T
Adj. Cash flow/Adj. Debt
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2015T 2016T
Within S&P financial criteria for investment grade rating
Adj. Debt/Adj. EBITDA(2)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2015T 2016T
Capacity for
additional debt
Adj. FFO/Adj. Debt(2)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2015T 2016T
15
Investor Relations Contact
Randy Mah
Senior Manager
(780) 392-5305
rmah@capitalpower.com
10423 – 101 Street NW
10th Floor
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada, T5H 0E9
www.capitalpower.com

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Capital Power 2016 BMO Capital Markets Infrastructure & Utilities conference CFO Presentation

  • 1. Bryan DeNeve Senior VP Finance & CFO CAPITAL POWER Infrastructure & Utilities Conference February 4, 2016
  • 2. Capital Power overview  Growth-oriented North American IPP with ownership interest in 18 facilities in Canada and the US totaling more than 3,200 MW(1)  Young and modern fleet of assets  Proven operating, development & construction expertise  Strong contracted cash flow base supports annual dividend growth(2)  TSX (CPX); market cap of $1.7B(3); average daily trading of 520K(3) shares 1) Based on MW owned capacity as of Dec 31/15; excludes Sundance PPA (371 MW). 2) Subject to Board approval. 3) Market capitalization as of Dec 31/15. Based on average daily trading volume on all stock exchanges in 2015. 2
  • 3. Alberta Climate Leadership Plan  Current Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) replaced with CCR in 2018  Electricity generators will pay $30/tonne starting in 2018 for greenhouse gas emissions above electricity sector performance standard  Impact on Genesee 3 / Keephills 3 will be offset by higher pool prices and by utilizing our inventory of low-cost carbon offset credits through 2020 Carbon Competitiveness Regulation (CCR) Increase in power prices will partially offset higher carbon costs 3
  • 4. Alberta Climate Leadership Plan  Phase out coal-fired power by 2030 and replace at least 50- 75% of retired coal generation with renewable power  Panel recommended central procurement of renewables, by offering Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) to renewables developers through a competitive process  Wind expected to be the more dominant fuel type in near-term  Based on current expectations, process likely to start in 2016 with first in-service date at the end of 2019 Well-positioned to develop and build renewables and natural gas in Alberta 4 Accelerated phase-out of coal facilities to be replaced with renewables and merchant natural gas
  • 5. Alberta Climate Leadership Plan  New renewable generation will be timed to replace two-thirds of retiring coal-fired generation  Ensures existing assets are not adversely impacted by oversupply  Ensures new gas-fired generation continues to be built based on pricing signals from the energy only market  Allows existing market design to continue to function as it has over the past 15 years Alberta’s deregulated market maintained providing regulatory certainty for existing generating assets Maintenance of Alberta market design 5
  • 6.  Alberta Government committed to avoid “unnecessarily stranding capital” and “treat companies fairly”  A component of compensation for early retirement could be the ratio of reduced asset life to the current remaining life multiplied by Net Book Value (NBV)  NBV of our coal assets is ~$2 billion at end of 2015  Remaining life of our coal units are 139 years. A “2030 retirement date” reduces remaining life by 79 years (57% reduction)  Funds raised by CCR is to estimated to be $3 billion per year Alberta Climate Leadership Plan Compensation for accelerated phase-out of coal We believe Capital Power will be fairly compensated 6
  • 7. Carbon competitiveness regulation  Required to comply with Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) through to the end of 2017. Levy under Carbon Competitiveness Regulation (CCR) effective starting in 2018. Use of existing offset credits and higher pool prices will more than offset higher compliance costs through 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 Compliance regulation SGER CCR Compliance requirement 20% 55% to 65% (Down to best gas standard) Market compliance cost ($/tonne) $30 $30 $30+inflation+2% (based on Panel’s recommendation)  Impact on Genesee 3 / Keephills 3 will be offset by higher pool prices and inventory of low-cost carbon offset credits through 2020  CPX bears the Genesee 1 & 2 compliance costs post-2020 after PPA expiry 7
  • 8. Estimated incremental impacts of CCR(1) The expected uplift from the expiry of the G1/G2 PPA offsets the impact of the new carbon tax in 2021 EBITDA impact ($M) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total coal EBITDA impact due to CCR $30 ($25) ($65) ($120) EBITDA increase from natural gas & wind facilities $50 $30 $30 $20 Total portfolio EBITDA impact $80 $5 ($35) ($100) 1) Carbon Competitiveness Regulation does not include the impact of expected compensation for early coal retirement. 8  Contracted revenue under Genesee 1 & 2 PPA is expected to be $37/MWh in 2020  Expected revenue will be $60 to $70/MWh when the output is sold into the AB merchant market, which will now be partially eroded by the higher carbon tax
  • 9. Carbon tax: impact on pool price  Some variable cost increase will be passed through power prices 1) Assumes allocation based on Cleanest Gas Standard of 0.4T/MWh, and the following intensities (T/MWh): coal = 1.05, Simple cycle & cogen = 0.55, Combined cycle = 0.45 9
  • 10. Alberta Climate Leadership Plan  2018 to 2020 (~ +$20M average EBITDA(1) per year) - Coal compliance costs partly recovered through higher power prices + Utilize existing inventory of carbon credits + Higher power prices benefits natural gas and wind facilities + Reduction in compliance costs for Shepard  2021 to 2029 (~ -$100M average EBITDA per year) - Coal compliance costs partly recovered through modestly higher power prices + Modestly higher power prices benefits natural gas and wind facilities + Reduction in compliance costs for Shepard + Participate in new generation + Potential for compensation  2030 to 2061 (?) + Expect to receive fair compensation for accelerated coal retirements Expected incremental impacts 1) EBITDA is a Non-GAAP financial measure, see page 45. 10
  • 11. Continued strong cash flow generation  Cash flow expected to increase ~4% in 2016 to $405M  ~42% of 2016 FFO is discretionary cash flow(2)  At the mid-point of 2016 guidance range, generating ~$175M in DCF before growth capex to reinvest in renewables and natural gas opportunities Funds from operations (FFO)(1) 1) 2016 FFO target represents the mid-point of $380M - $430M guidance range. FFO is a non-GAAP financial measure. See page 45. 2) Discretionary cash flow (DCF) is a non-GAAP financial measure. DCF = FFO - sustaining capex - total common and preferred share dividends. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 2014 2015E 2016T 42% 21% 15% 47% 38% 42% 41% 17% ($M) 37% (1) Discretionary cash flow Gross dividends (common & preferred shares) Sustaining capex 11
  • 12. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 2012 2013 2014 2015T 2016T Beaufort Macho Springs K2 Wind Shepard PD&N Halkirk Quality Wind Island Generation North Carolina Kingsbridge 1 Genesee 1&2 Improving contracted cash flow(1,2,3) ($M) 3 wind projects} Shepard & K2 Wind } 1) Margins have been averaged over the periods except in the year of commissioning. 2) Only includes contracted portions of Halkirk and Shepard plants. 3) Cash distributions from K2 Wind and EBITDA for all other plants. Substantial expansion in contracted operating margin from 2012-16 Substantial expansion in contracted operating margin from 2012 to 2016 12
  • 13. 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 2015T 2016T 2017T 2018T 1) Merchant margin is calculated using $40/MWh and $70/MWh and is based on hedged position as at November 30, 2015. 2) Based on existing plants plus committed development projects. Financial obligations include interest payments (including interest during construction), sustaining contracted capital expenditures and general & administration expenses. 3) Dividends include common and preferred dividends. Assumes consistent common dividend growth in 2016-18. 4) Forwards as of November 30, 2015. Contracted margin Contracted + merchant ($70/MWh) Contracted + merchant ($40/MWh) Operating margin(1) to financial obligations(2) and dividends(3) Minimum AB power prices required to cover financial obligations and dividends(3) 2015F $0/MWh 2016F $0/MWh 2017F Low $30s 2018F Low $40s Contracted + merchant (forwards(4)) Strong financial coverage 13
  • 14. Financial strength  Investment grade credit ratings recently reaffirmed by S&P and DBRS  Debt-to-capital ratio remains below long-term target of 40% - 50% Debt to total capitalization 33% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2014 2015T Long-term target 40% - 50% Strong balance sheet and investment grade credit rating Agency Ratings Outlook S&P BBB- / P-3 Stable DBRS BBB / Pfd-3 (low) Stable Corporate Liquidity(1) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2015T 1) December 31, 2015 forward-looking estimate. 14
  • 15. 1) Metrics applicable to Capital Power L.P. 2) Based on S&P’s weighted average ratings methodology. Credit metrics(1) Above DBRS financial criteria for current rating EBITDA/Adj. Interest 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2015T 2016T Adj. Cash flow/Adj. Debt 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2015T 2016T Within S&P financial criteria for investment grade rating Adj. Debt/Adj. EBITDA(2) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2015T 2016T Capacity for additional debt Adj. FFO/Adj. Debt(2) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2015T 2016T 15
  • 16. Investor Relations Contact Randy Mah Senior Manager (780) 392-5305 rmah@capitalpower.com 10423 – 101 Street NW 10th Floor Edmonton, Alberta Canada, T5H 0E9 www.capitalpower.com