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Cap & Trade:
Implementation!
!
Sean Penrith!
Executive Director!
The Climate Trust!
!
3/14/17!
INVEST	WITH	PURPOSE
Topics	
•  Paris Agreement!
•  EU Emission Trading Scheme!
•  China pilot/national progress!
•  Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative!
•  California’s AB32!
!
History	
•  The Oregon Legislature established the Oregon Carbon Dioxide Standard in 1997,
requiring power plants to mitigate a portion of their GHG emissions.!
•  TCT board made up of 7 Oregon Offset Directors to oversee the CO2 Standard!
•  Managed over $43 million in carbon financing for greenhouse gas emission
reduction projects and seven national programs.!
•  Expertise in developing carbon offset credit protocols, monitoring & verification
plans, quality standards, and peer reviewed research.!
!
3	
Report	every	5	years	to	
EFSC
TCT	Por4olio
Paris	Agreement	
•  The U.S. joined 194 signatories under the Paris Agreement
committing to limit the increase in global average temperature
to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. !
•  Roughly half of submitted INDCs feature market-based
instruments to meet their national climate targets. !
•  Article 6:!
“Countries can meet their emissions reductions targets
by trading emissions reductions among each other, and they
can create their own governance structures to manage the
process, but they must make sure the trading promotes
sustainable development, and they must follow accounting
principles approved by the UNFCCC.”
•  Countries responsible for ~50% of global CO2 emissions already have carbon price mechanism planned or
in place.!
•  Only one of the ten largest economies in the world does NOT have a carbon price (USA)!
!
Central	Role	for	Cap	and	Trade	Mechanism	
•  Cap and trade supports specific sector programs
(clean fuels, RPS, etc.) that achieve bulk of
reductions!
•  Acts as an elastic back-stop to guarantee that
depending on program performance, GHG goal is
attained with certainty.!
•  Most effective emission reductions at least cost!
EU	Emissions	Trading	Scheme:	45%	coverage	
•  EUETS is the world’s first & largest GHG
trading system!
•  Carbon dioxide (CO2) (Power & heat
generation, energy-intensive industry sectors,
commercial aviation). Nitrous oxide (N2O) &
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) (aluminum
production)!
•  The EU grew its GDP by 45% between 1990
and 2012, while reducing emissions 19%!
•  Current amendments align the cap with 2030
target to reduce GHG emissions by at least
40%!
•  Improve free allocation rules & readjust the
declining cap to 2.2%/year!
•  Support low-carbon innovation & energy
sector modernization.!
EU	ETS	Challenges	
•  Adopted Market Stability Reserve (MSR) to
address the accumulated allowance surplus
which depressed the allowance prices!
•  MSR will start operating in January 2019!
•  Allowances added to the reserve if allowances in
circulation higher than 833 million allowances. !
•  900 million back-loaded allowances, which were
withdrawn from auctions from 2014-2016 will be
placed directly into the reserve.!
Regional	Greenhouse	Gas	IniIaIve:		
•  Nation’s first regional regulatory program designed to
reduce GHG emissions from large electric power plants!
•  RGGI is not and was never meant to be an economic-
development program. Purpose is to reduce emissions of
CO2 from power plants to mitigate the economic, social,
and environmental risks of climate change!
•  RGGI CO2 cap declines 2.5% each year from 2015 to 2020.!
•  Quarterly allowance auctions!
•  Offset emissions reductions outside the capped sector
designed to provide compliance flexibility & create
opportunities for low-cost emissions reductions & other co-
benefits across sectors.!
•  Offset sectors include: Landfill methane capture, forestry
conservation, end-use energy efficiency, avoided manure
methane.!
Revenue	expenditures	
Credit:	Sightline	Ins=tute
2009	–	2014	RGGI	Impacts	
•  9 RGGI states on track to achieve reductions of GHG emissions of 45%
below 2005 levels by 2020!
•  Raised nearly $3 billion to support investments in energy efficiency,
renewable generation, & other public benefit programs.!
•  Economic impacts amount to average of over $31 in value added
per capita in the region!
•  Health and productivity benefits estimated at cumulative $5.7 billion ($3.0
billion low-end, $8.3 billion high-end).!
•  Multiple states in the mid-Atlantic and New England regions experienced
significant health benefits from RGGI-induced changes to air quality.!
•  Efficiency & distribution improvements made using RGGI funds delivered
downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices.!
•  Consumers of electricity saved $341 million, and natural gas and heating
oil saved $118 million and added 30,000 job years (a.o end ‘15)!
•  Finding: market-based carbon emissions pricing approach does not
negatively impact power system reliability. !
•  Reduced fossil fuel spending outside their region by over $1.27 billion (‘12
– ’14).!
Americans	for	Prosperity:	RGGI	
would	lead	to	"higher	taxes,	lost	jobs,	
and	less	freedom"	in	addi=on	to	a	
doubling	of	electric	rates.
China	
•  Launched 7 regional ETS pilots in 2013!
•  2017 Chinese national ETS will cover twice the volume of emissions
covered by the EU ETS.!
•  Includes carbon emission trading market to “realize the objective of
controlling greenhouse gas emissions at minimum cost”.!
•  8 sectors and 15 sub-sectors which consume +10,000 tons of coal
equivalent per year included in China’s national ETS!
•  Goals: !
•  Reduce CO2 per unit of GDP by 40-45% relative to 2005 and
increase the ratio of non-fossil energy to 15% of primary energy
consumption by 2020!
•  Peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 (try to reach this peak as early
as possible)!
California	C&T	as	a	back	stop	
•  Cap and Trade
program designed to
address ~16% of
emissions for the
state!
•  Relies on
complementary
targeted programs to
achieve bulk of
reductions!
!
California	AB32:	covers	85%	of	emission	sources		
•  Covers electricity generators and importers, large industrial emitters, and suppliers of natural
gas and transportation fuels!
•  C&T works  in concert Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Clean Car Program and California’s
Renewables Portfolio Standard (RE 50% by 2030)!
•  Cap declines at 3% per year!
•  California on track to reach its 2020 target (reducing its emissions to 431 million metric tons
(MMT) of carbon dioxide)!
•  SB32 extends California’s landmark climate goals to 2030 by requiring reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 1990 levels.!
•  AB197 requires ARB to “prioritize… emission reduction rules and regulations that result in
direct emission reductions” while considering the impact on disadvantaged communities	
•  Facilitate sub-national and national collaboration!
•  2030 TARGET SCOPING PLAN UPDATE states “Natural and working lands are integral to the
State’s climate change strategy. Storing carbon in trees, plants, aquatic vegetation, and in the
soil is one of the most effective ways to remove GHGs from the atmosphere.” !
•  Offset markets allow the pathway to tapping that sector’s potential. !
AB 32 Cap and Trade Compliance 	
•  Covered entities must:!
•  Report emissions annually, with independent 3rd party verification!
•  Compliance achieved by submitting to ARB compliance instruments equal to
their annual GHG emissions!
•  Reduction in emissions equates to a reduction in compliance instruments
needed!
•  Allowances are primary compliance instrument!
•  Offsets provide a limited optional compliance instrument (up to 8% permitted)!
•  Severe penalty for non-compliance !
1	offset	
Reduc=on	of	1	
metric	ton	
of	CO2e	
1	allowance	
Permit	to	pollute	
1	metric	ton	
of	CO2e
Cap-and-Trade Program GHG Emissions	
•  Emissions in covered sectors have declined more rapidly than expected!
•  Trading allowances and offsets is regarded as key flexibility that enables the state to
achieve emission reductions at the lowest cost. !
•  Not shown: 54 million MT CO2e of offset credits issued for emissions reductions outside
of the cap (~4.4% of 8% used)
California	Trends	under	AB32	
Source:	US	Clean	Tech	Leadership	Index,	Clean	Edge	Inc.	
•  Emissions are down by 3.8% for covered
entities!
•  CA grew its economy 6.6% between 2010
and 2013!
•  CA attracted $21B in clean energy
investment capital since signing of AB32.
In 2015, California attracted more clean
tech investment than any other state - $9.8
billion – an increase of 35% from the
previous year.!
•  3.3% job growth; national 2.5%!
•  50 new jobs were created for every job
forgone in the oil, gas and electric power
sector.!
•  25% of program revenue targeted at
disadvantaged communities !
•  California leads the nation with the highest
total manufacturing output ($239B) of any
state!
!
!
AB32	Impacts	
•  Since 2006, California's economy has moved from the eighth- to the sixth-largest in the world. !
•  In the first eight years of AB 32, California’s petroleum consumption decreased more than 14%.!
•  Estimated climate benefits (the avoided economic damages) of California’s climate measures will be
between $2.4 and $11 billion by 2030!
•  Luskin report: Low income protected from C&T compliance costs passed through from electric (+ve
$215 - $246), natural gas (+ve $44 - $88), and gasoline providers ($350 - $700) related to
complimentary policies outside of C&T).!
•  50% of the $1 billion implemented under C&T system has been directed to disadvantaged
communities. $12 - $45B estimated for 2012 – 2025 period. !
•  Employment in the state’s advanced energy industry grew 18% in 2015, six times the rate of
statewide employment growth.!
•  Question whether $2.2B for 2017-2018 budget cycle will be achieved given lawsuit and post-2020
outlook that has led to under subscription at recent auctions ($167,915,180)!
•  Linked to Quebec in 2014. Ontario to launch this year.!
WSJ	2010:	…”	the	new	energy	cap	
dooms	the	state	to	bankruptcy.”
Uncapped	sectors	
•  Six offset protocols have been adopted:!
1.  U.S. forest (17,384,601 credits) !
2.  Urban forest (0)!
3.  Livestock digesters (1,174,769 credits) !
4.  Ozone depleting substances (ODS) (6,770,370
credits)!
5.  Mine methane capture (MMC) (694,160 credits)!
6.  Rice cultivation (0)!
•  Offsets represent real avoidance of 54 million metric tons
of CO2e from 260 projects across the U.S.!
•  16 million credits across 54 projects were developed from
project activities in California, 22 of which occurred in
disadvantaged communities in California.!
•  Designed to offer cost containment & linkage potential!
•  Pathway for private capital & promote innovation!
•  Can deliver additional co-benefits!
Courtesy:	Climate	Ac=on	Reserve
California’s approach,
based on the
2015-2016 budget!
•  Funds totaled
over $2.2 billion!
Forest	health,		$92		
Energy	efficiency	projects,		
$325		
Low	carbon	transporta=on,		
$350		
Low-carbon	and	other	transit	
projects,		$365		
Affordable	housing	and	
sustainable	communi=es	
Program,		$400		
High-speed	rail	project,		$500		
Soil	health,		$20		
Waste	diversion,		$60		
Drought	execu=ve	order	
(rebates	and	technology	
programs),		$60		
Wetlands	and	watershed	
restora=on,		$65		
Other,		$205		
2015-2016	California	AucIon	Revenue	Budget	
in	millions
Sean Penrith!
503-238-1915!
spenrith@climatetrust.org!

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Cap & Trade: Implementation, Joint Government Meeting in Salem, Oregon

  • 1. Cap & Trade: Implementation! ! Sean Penrith! Executive Director! The Climate Trust! ! 3/14/17! INVEST WITH PURPOSE
  • 2. Topics •  Paris Agreement! •  EU Emission Trading Scheme! •  China pilot/national progress! •  Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative! •  California’s AB32!
  • 3. ! History •  The Oregon Legislature established the Oregon Carbon Dioxide Standard in 1997, requiring power plants to mitigate a portion of their GHG emissions.! •  TCT board made up of 7 Oregon Offset Directors to oversee the CO2 Standard! •  Managed over $43 million in carbon financing for greenhouse gas emission reduction projects and seven national programs.! •  Expertise in developing carbon offset credit protocols, monitoring & verification plans, quality standards, and peer reviewed research.! ! 3 Report every 5 years to EFSC
  • 5. Paris Agreement •  The U.S. joined 194 signatories under the Paris Agreement committing to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. ! •  Roughly half of submitted INDCs feature market-based instruments to meet their national climate targets. ! •  Article 6:! “Countries can meet their emissions reductions targets by trading emissions reductions among each other, and they can create their own governance structures to manage the process, but they must make sure the trading promotes sustainable development, and they must follow accounting principles approved by the UNFCCC.”
  • 6. •  Countries responsible for ~50% of global CO2 emissions already have carbon price mechanism planned or in place.! •  Only one of the ten largest economies in the world does NOT have a carbon price (USA)! !
  • 7. Central Role for Cap and Trade Mechanism •  Cap and trade supports specific sector programs (clean fuels, RPS, etc.) that achieve bulk of reductions! •  Acts as an elastic back-stop to guarantee that depending on program performance, GHG goal is attained with certainty.! •  Most effective emission reductions at least cost!
  • 8. EU Emissions Trading Scheme: 45% coverage •  EUETS is the world’s first & largest GHG trading system! •  Carbon dioxide (CO2) (Power & heat generation, energy-intensive industry sectors, commercial aviation). Nitrous oxide (N2O) & Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) (aluminum production)! •  The EU grew its GDP by 45% between 1990 and 2012, while reducing emissions 19%! •  Current amendments align the cap with 2030 target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40%! •  Improve free allocation rules & readjust the declining cap to 2.2%/year! •  Support low-carbon innovation & energy sector modernization.!
  • 9. EU ETS Challenges •  Adopted Market Stability Reserve (MSR) to address the accumulated allowance surplus which depressed the allowance prices! •  MSR will start operating in January 2019! •  Allowances added to the reserve if allowances in circulation higher than 833 million allowances. ! •  900 million back-loaded allowances, which were withdrawn from auctions from 2014-2016 will be placed directly into the reserve.!
  • 10. Regional Greenhouse Gas IniIaIve: •  Nation’s first regional regulatory program designed to reduce GHG emissions from large electric power plants! •  RGGI is not and was never meant to be an economic- development program. Purpose is to reduce emissions of CO2 from power plants to mitigate the economic, social, and environmental risks of climate change! •  RGGI CO2 cap declines 2.5% each year from 2015 to 2020.! •  Quarterly allowance auctions! •  Offset emissions reductions outside the capped sector designed to provide compliance flexibility & create opportunities for low-cost emissions reductions & other co- benefits across sectors.! •  Offset sectors include: Landfill methane capture, forestry conservation, end-use energy efficiency, avoided manure methane.! Revenue expenditures Credit: Sightline Ins=tute
  • 11. 2009 – 2014 RGGI Impacts •  9 RGGI states on track to achieve reductions of GHG emissions of 45% below 2005 levels by 2020! •  Raised nearly $3 billion to support investments in energy efficiency, renewable generation, & other public benefit programs.! •  Economic impacts amount to average of over $31 in value added per capita in the region! •  Health and productivity benefits estimated at cumulative $5.7 billion ($3.0 billion low-end, $8.3 billion high-end).! •  Multiple states in the mid-Atlantic and New England regions experienced significant health benefits from RGGI-induced changes to air quality.! •  Efficiency & distribution improvements made using RGGI funds delivered downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices.! •  Consumers of electricity saved $341 million, and natural gas and heating oil saved $118 million and added 30,000 job years (a.o end ‘15)! •  Finding: market-based carbon emissions pricing approach does not negatively impact power system reliability. ! •  Reduced fossil fuel spending outside their region by over $1.27 billion (‘12 – ’14).! Americans for Prosperity: RGGI would lead to "higher taxes, lost jobs, and less freedom" in addi=on to a doubling of electric rates.
  • 12. China •  Launched 7 regional ETS pilots in 2013! •  2017 Chinese national ETS will cover twice the volume of emissions covered by the EU ETS.! •  Includes carbon emission trading market to “realize the objective of controlling greenhouse gas emissions at minimum cost”.! •  8 sectors and 15 sub-sectors which consume +10,000 tons of coal equivalent per year included in China’s national ETS! •  Goals: ! •  Reduce CO2 per unit of GDP by 40-45% relative to 2005 and increase the ratio of non-fossil energy to 15% of primary energy consumption by 2020! •  Peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 (try to reach this peak as early as possible)!
  • 13. California C&T as a back stop •  Cap and Trade program designed to address ~16% of emissions for the state! •  Relies on complementary targeted programs to achieve bulk of reductions! !
  • 14. California AB32: covers 85% of emission sources •  Covers electricity generators and importers, large industrial emitters, and suppliers of natural gas and transportation fuels! •  C&T works  in concert Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Clean Car Program and California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard (RE 50% by 2030)! •  Cap declines at 3% per year! •  California on track to reach its 2020 target (reducing its emissions to 431 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide)! •  SB32 extends California’s landmark climate goals to 2030 by requiring reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 1990 levels.! •  AB197 requires ARB to “prioritize… emission reduction rules and regulations that result in direct emission reductions” while considering the impact on disadvantaged communities •  Facilitate sub-national and national collaboration! •  2030 TARGET SCOPING PLAN UPDATE states “Natural and working lands are integral to the State’s climate change strategy. Storing carbon in trees, plants, aquatic vegetation, and in the soil is one of the most effective ways to remove GHGs from the atmosphere.” ! •  Offset markets allow the pathway to tapping that sector’s potential. !
  • 15. AB 32 Cap and Trade Compliance •  Covered entities must:! •  Report emissions annually, with independent 3rd party verification! •  Compliance achieved by submitting to ARB compliance instruments equal to their annual GHG emissions! •  Reduction in emissions equates to a reduction in compliance instruments needed! •  Allowances are primary compliance instrument! •  Offsets provide a limited optional compliance instrument (up to 8% permitted)! •  Severe penalty for non-compliance ! 1 offset Reduc=on of 1 metric ton of CO2e 1 allowance Permit to pollute 1 metric ton of CO2e
  • 16. Cap-and-Trade Program GHG Emissions •  Emissions in covered sectors have declined more rapidly than expected! •  Trading allowances and offsets is regarded as key flexibility that enables the state to achieve emission reductions at the lowest cost. ! •  Not shown: 54 million MT CO2e of offset credits issued for emissions reductions outside of the cap (~4.4% of 8% used)
  • 17. California Trends under AB32 Source: US Clean Tech Leadership Index, Clean Edge Inc. •  Emissions are down by 3.8% for covered entities! •  CA grew its economy 6.6% between 2010 and 2013! •  CA attracted $21B in clean energy investment capital since signing of AB32. In 2015, California attracted more clean tech investment than any other state - $9.8 billion – an increase of 35% from the previous year.! •  3.3% job growth; national 2.5%! •  50 new jobs were created for every job forgone in the oil, gas and electric power sector.! •  25% of program revenue targeted at disadvantaged communities ! •  California leads the nation with the highest total manufacturing output ($239B) of any state! ! !
  • 18. AB32 Impacts •  Since 2006, California's economy has moved from the eighth- to the sixth-largest in the world. ! •  In the first eight years of AB 32, California’s petroleum consumption decreased more than 14%.! •  Estimated climate benefits (the avoided economic damages) of California’s climate measures will be between $2.4 and $11 billion by 2030! •  Luskin report: Low income protected from C&T compliance costs passed through from electric (+ve $215 - $246), natural gas (+ve $44 - $88), and gasoline providers ($350 - $700) related to complimentary policies outside of C&T).! •  50% of the $1 billion implemented under C&T system has been directed to disadvantaged communities. $12 - $45B estimated for 2012 – 2025 period. ! •  Employment in the state’s advanced energy industry grew 18% in 2015, six times the rate of statewide employment growth.! •  Question whether $2.2B for 2017-2018 budget cycle will be achieved given lawsuit and post-2020 outlook that has led to under subscription at recent auctions ($167,915,180)! •  Linked to Quebec in 2014. Ontario to launch this year.! WSJ 2010: …” the new energy cap dooms the state to bankruptcy.”
  • 19. Uncapped sectors •  Six offset protocols have been adopted:! 1.  U.S. forest (17,384,601 credits) ! 2.  Urban forest (0)! 3.  Livestock digesters (1,174,769 credits) ! 4.  Ozone depleting substances (ODS) (6,770,370 credits)! 5.  Mine methane capture (MMC) (694,160 credits)! 6.  Rice cultivation (0)! •  Offsets represent real avoidance of 54 million metric tons of CO2e from 260 projects across the U.S.! •  16 million credits across 54 projects were developed from project activities in California, 22 of which occurred in disadvantaged communities in California.! •  Designed to offer cost containment & linkage potential! •  Pathway for private capital & promote innovation! •  Can deliver additional co-benefits! Courtesy: Climate Ac=on Reserve
  • 20. California’s approach, based on the 2015-2016 budget! •  Funds totaled over $2.2 billion! Forest health, $92 Energy efficiency projects, $325 Low carbon transporta=on, $350 Low-carbon and other transit projects, $365 Affordable housing and sustainable communi=es Program, $400 High-speed rail project, $500 Soil health, $20 Waste diversion, $60 Drought execu=ve order (rebates and technology programs), $60 Wetlands and watershed restora=on, $65 Other, $205 2015-2016 California AucIon Revenue Budget in millions