In this electoral round, the power of the current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has been challenged by its major opponent, the Five Stars Movement, and weakened on the eve of another important political happening: the Constitutional Referendum in October 2016.
Italy appears to be on a knife edge and these elections represent only a prequel of the political struggle that will permeate the Italian debate in the months to come.
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2. Results
The ItalianMunicipal election system
envisages one ballotround in case no
candidate reaches50%+1votes. The
ballotround will take placeon the 19th
of June.
Resultsshowthatthetide isturning
and Partito Democratico (thecentre-
left wing party supporting Mr Renzi) is
having difficulties in keeping its
primacy in thepublic opinion. Onthe
other hand, theFive-Stars Movement is
themost popular party in Rome,
proving its strengthening political
position, and thesecond most voted
party in Turin, where Partito
Democratico is rooted and
traditionally strong.
Ballots are taking place in Milan, Rome,
Naples and Turin.
Preface
Thecurrent round of elections in
Italyappoints new mayors for
1,363 municipalities, including
some of Italy’s largest and most
relevant cities: Milan, Rome, Naples
and Turin. However, to reduce the
importance of theseelections to
thedimension of cities would be
terribly shortsighted: Italian
politics are extraordinary complex
and always influenced by the
changes of tide dueto unexpected
or even “minor” events.
Inthiselectoral round, thepower
of thecurrent Prime Minister
Matteo Renzi hasbeen challenged
by hismajor opponent, theanti-
establishment Five Stars
Movement. This hasweakened
Renzi on theeve of another
important political development:
theConstitutional Referendum
taking place in October 2016.
This analysis attempts to explain
thecomplex environment thatthe
Italian government is navigating,
taking into account current and
potential futurechallenges, aswell
asthedifficulties of a slow Italian
economic recovery.
City Candidate Party Results
Rome Virginia Raggi Five-Stars
Movement
35.3%
Roberto Giachetti Partito
Democratico
24.8%
Milan Giuseppe Sala Partito
Democratico
41.7%
Stefano Parisi Centre-right
coalition
40.8%
Naples Luigi De Magistris Left coalition 42.3%
Gianni Lettieri Centre-right
coalition
24%
Turin Piero Fassino Partito
Democratico
41.9%
Chiara Appendino Five Stars
Movement
30.8%
4. Brunswick Group
Italy Municipal elections
Mr Renzi hasbecome less powerful
thanhewas one year ago: trustin Mr
Renzi hasdecreased to just 27% of the
population, according to polls. Political
observers believe thehoneymoon
phase of every new government with
itscountry islimited in time, and Mr
Renzi is now reaching theend of the
wide support heinitially received from
Italian public opinion.
Thefirst causefor thisdecline is that
Mr Renzi promised too muchin too
short atime. Although thecountry’s
economic trend isslowly turning
positive, low economic growth rates
are not yet resulting in arelevant
reduction of theunemployment rate.
One of theprimary reforms of the
government, theso-called Jobs Act
(labour market reform), waspresented
astheturning point of theeconomic
crisis. Instead, employment hasbeen
among thelast economic variables to
rise with therecovery, and much of the
recent increase in theworking
population hasbeen dueto public
incentives. Therefore, many believe
thatthereform hasfailed to fulfilits
purpose.
Moreover, Partito Democratico is now
facing a crossfire of investigations, with
some institutional representatives
from theparty accusedof corruption or
illicit behaviour. On-going
investigations are weakening the
government’s support and boosting
populist parties suchastheFive Stars
Movement, which criticizes the
establishment under themotto
“Honesty!” shoutedin public squares.
Looking forward to2017
Constitutional Reform isapproved
by the October Referendum
Constitutional Reform isrejected
by the October Referendum
Matteo Renzi resigns and the
parliament isunable to form anew
government.
Elections in spring/summer 2017;
Mr Renzi usesthereferendum as the
strong narrative of hiscampaign and
tries to isolate internal opposition.
Matteo Renzi resigns and the
parliament isunable to form anew
government.
Elections in spring/summer 2017;
with theConstitutional Reform
rejected, MrRenzi is weakened and
results are uncertain.
Matteo Renzi does not resign and
carries on hispolitical struggle.
Political oppositions become more
aggressive, internal opposition inside
theparty tries to block reformist
process looking at theelections in
2018.
Thegovernment leverages thenew
institutional structure asastrong
narrative at theEuropean level.
Matteo Renzi does not resign, buthis
power is weakened by thedefeat of
thereferendum.
Political and internal oppositions
become more aggressive and the
government’s activity slows down.
These are just some of theissues
besieging thegovernment. The
migration crisis and thefear related to
thenew comers, theeconomic
situation, theon-going Italian banking
sector’s worries, and fading pan-
European sentiment are all gnawing at
thebase of MrRenzi’s political support.
That said, wewould consider it
unlikely for Mr Renzi’s government to
reach theend of thecurrent legislation
period in 2018 (theItalian legislative
period is five years, unless
unanticipated elections takeplace).
We seefour possible
scenarioahead:
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Italy Municipal elections
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