2. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
1
THE FUTURE OF DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following pages contain our detailed projections on population and employment growth in Downtown Bellevue
through 2019. This information was created in order to better understand the relationships between office, hotel,
retail and residential development projects and the types and numbers of direct jobs created by those real estate
development projects.
We have used two scenarios in our assumptions. The first scenario assumes “business as usual.” The second
scenario assumes a “moderate slowdown.” Our assumptions are our own, based on our many years of experience
in the Downtown Bellevue commercial real estate market assisting our clients in buying, selling, leasing, managing
and developing their Bellevue Projects.
Our approach has been to demystify and distill the numbers into easy to understand and compelling charts and
graphs that you can use to make better business decisions.
We hope you enjoy it and find it useful.
Sincerely,
Bobby Shanahan Mark C. Anderson
Senior Research Associate Senior Vice President
425 453 3144 425 453 3117
bobby.shanahan@colliers.com mark.c.anderson@colliers.com
3. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
2
BELLEVUE CBD OFFICE / MULTIFAMILY / RETAIL / HOTEL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
The following list of downtown Bellevue developments reflect the flurry of large projects coming our way.
These office, hotel, multifamily, and retail properties have recently completed, are currently under construction,
near construction, or under review by the city. At least twenty projects are scheduled to deliver between now and
mid-2020 if all goes according to plan.
In projecting future employee and population growth, the following calculations and assumptions were made:
» Office properties—we assume the buildings stabilize to 90% leased and one employee occupies an
average of 200 square feet
» Multifamily projects—we calculate that the buildings will lease up to 95% occupancy within two quarters
after completion, adding 1.65 residents per household
» Hotels—we assume they will be fully staffed with one employee for every five rooms
» Retail space—we are confident that along Bellevue Way Main Street, all space will be leased, while we
assume 95% leased in other areas, one employee takes up an average of 400 square feet
The Summit III - O
Metro 112 - Phase II - MF
Marriott AC - H
Centre 425 - O
Bellevue Square Expansion - R/H/MF
400 Lincoln Square - O/R
405
SOMA Phase II - MF/R
Bellevue Plaza - MF/R
Main Street Flats - Phase II - MF/R
BOSA Condo Tower - MF/R
Park at Bellevue - MF/R
Evergreen Plaza - MF/RMirador - MF
KEY
Hotel - H; Multifamily - MF;
Office - O; Retail - R
Under Construction
Proposed
500 Lincoln Square - MF/H/R
Silver Cloud Inn - H
Elev8 - R/MF
Four 106 - MF/H
Hilton Garden
Vuecrest Apartments - MF
103rd Avenue Apartments - MF
888 108th Ave NE - MF
Puget Sound Blood Site - MF
Plaza Center Residences - MF
Bellevue 600 - O/H
Bellevue Center - R/MF
4. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
3
1
929 Office Tower
» 462,000 SF Office
» Delivered Q4 2015
» 85,000 SF Leased to Salesforce.com = 18% leased
» 2,000 Office Jobs Projected
» 330 Salesforce Jobs in Q4 2016 Projected
2
Centre 425
» 354,000 SF Office
» Delivering December 2016
» 100% Pre-leased to Amazon
» 2,300 Office Jobs Projected by Q2 2017 (150 SF per
employee)
3
Lincoln Square II
» 720,000 SF Office
» 245 Hotel Rooms
» 231 Apartment Units
» 180,000 SF Retail
» Delivering May 2017 (Office) Q4 2017 (Hotel/Apartments)
» 55% Office SF Pre-leased (Valve + WeWork = 300,000 SF,
42% of Total Office SF)
» 49 Hotel Jobs Projected
» 450 Retail Jobs Projected
» 3,700 Office Jobs Projected
» 362 New Residents Projected
4
Bellevue Square Expansion
» 175,000 SF Retail
» 140 Hotel Rooms
» 250 Apartment Units
» Delivering Q1 2019
» 440 Retail Jobs Projected
» 28 Hotel Jobs Projected
» 392 New Residents Projected
5
Hilton Garden Inn
» 254 Hotel Rooms
» Delivering Q4 2017
» 51 Hotel Jobs Projected
» Ground Floor Retail
5. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
4
6
Marriott AC Hotel
» 234 Hotel Rooms
» Delivering Q1 2017
» 47 Hotel Jobs Projected
» Ground Floor Retail
7
Four 106 – Phase 1
» 120 Hotel Rooms
» 275 Apartment Units
» 6,500 SF Retail
» Delivering Q4 2018
» 24 Hotel Jobs Projected
» 15 Retail Jobs Projected
» 431 New Residents Projected
8
Elev8 – Phases 1 2
» 435 Apartment Units (Phase 1)
» 400 Condo Units (Phase 1)
» 300,000 SF Office (Phase 2)
» 300 Hotel Rooms (Phase 2)
» 281,000 SF Retail
» Phase 1 = Q1 2019 Delivery
» Phase 2 = Q4 2019 Delivery
» 1,350 Office Jobs Projected
» 60 Hotel Jobs Projected
» 664 Retail Jobs Projected
» 1,300 New Residents Projected
9
The Meyden
» 256 Apartment Units
» 29,711 SF Retail
» Delivered Q1 2016
» 370 New Residents Projected
» 75 Retail Jobs Projected
» 88% leased as of 9/30/2016
10
SOMA Tower II
» 124 Apartment Units
» 15,630 SF Retail
» Delivering Q4 2016
» 37 Retail Jobs Projected
» 199 New Residents Projected
6. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
5
11
Venn @ Main
» 350 Apartment Units
» 23,475 SF Retail (One Restaurant)
» Delivered Q3 2016
» 578 New Residents Projected
» 70 Retail Jobs Projected
12
Park 88 Residences
» 160 Apartment Units
» 13,509 SF Retail (11,000 SF Carmine Restaurant)
» Delivered Q3 2016
» 251 New Residents Projected
» 45 Retail Jobs Projected
» 69% leased as of 9/30/2016
13
Mirador
» 162 Apartment Units
» 120 Condominium Units
» 6,000 SF Retail
» Delivering Q1 2018
» 462 New Residents Projected
» 14 Retail Jobs Projected
14
Bosa Condo Tower
» 142 Condominium Units
» 16,000 SF Retail
» Delivering Q3 2018
» 223 New Residents Projected
» 40 Retail Jobs Projected
15
Evergreen Plaza
» 154 Apartment Units
» 3,000 SF Retail
» Delivering Q1 2017
» 241 New Residents Projected
» 8 Retail Jobs Projected
7. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
6
16
Plaza Center Residences
» 260 Apartment Units
» 3,500 SF Retail
» Delivering Q4 2018
» 408 New Residents Projected
» 10 Retail Jobs Projected
17
Main Street Flats – Phase II
» 162 Apartment Units
» 5,200 SF Retail
» Delivering Q4 2018
» 254 New Residents Projected
» 15 Retail Jobs Projected
» Phase I Delivered June 2015
» 90% leased as of 9/30/2016
18
888 108th Tower
» 157 Apartment Units
» 2,750 SF Retail
» Delivering Q1 2018
» 246 New Residents Projected
» 7 Retail Jobs Projected
19
Vuecrest Apartments
» 135 Apartment Units
» 2,500 SF Retail
» Delivering Q4 2017
» 260 New Residents Projected
» 7 Retail Jobs Projected
20
11210 Tower
» 258 Apartment Units
» 15,000 SF Retail
» Delivering Q2 2019
» 492 New Residents Projected
» 36 Retail Jobs Projected
8. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
7
42,400
48,973
49,980
50,977
53,025
12,500
13,708
14,943
16,633
19,589
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Employment vs. Total Population
Total CBD Jobs Total CBD Population
3,500,000
3,582,325
3,764,825
3,994,324
4,171,324
7,100
7,317
7,773
8,343
8,764
6,000
8,000
10,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
4,200,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Retail Inventory vs. Total Retail Jobs
Total Retail SF Total Retail Jobs
9. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
8
EMERGING BELLEVUE MARKET
7,000
RESIDENTS
Added from 2016 to 2020 in
Downtown Bellevue alone
(projection based on 95% occupancy)
4,500
UNITS
Added to Downtown Bellevue
from 2016 to 2020
(assuming all projects with active
proposals move forward)
1,400
UNITS
Added to Downtown Bellevue’s
Multifamily Market from
2015 to 2016
33,000
36,221 36,614 36,981
40,577
7,100
7,317 7,773 8,343
8,764
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Employment Projections
Colliers International Estimates
Office Jobs Hotel Jobs Retail Jobs Other Jobs
37,498 38,398 39,320 40,264 41,230
5,713 5,747 5,781 5,816 5,851
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Employment Projections
Puget Sound Regional Council Estimates
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Services
Manufacturing, Wholesale, Trade, Utilities
Retail
Government, Education
Construction, Resources
10. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
9
ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO
Year Office Jobs Retail Jobs Hotel Jobs Total Jobs New Residents Total Residents
2016 33,000 7,100 800 42,400 1,051 12,500
2017 39,333 7,317 808 48,973 1,235 13,551
2018 39,726 7,773 955 49,980 1,690 14,786
2019 40,093 8,343 1,007 50,977 2,956 16,476
2020 41,644 8,764 1,067 53,025 376 19,432
5-Year Change % 26% 23% 33% 25% 6,932 55%
Annual Change 5.2% 4.7% 6.7% 5.0% 1,386 11.1%
Assumes: office towers lease up to 90% two quarters post-delivery, Expedia jobs remain until end of 2019 and are replaced by beginning of
2020, retail = 95-100% leased, multifamily leases up to 95% occupancy, and all permitted projects move forward.
12,500
13,551
14,786
16,476
19,432
8,150
9,040
9,562
11,361
12,158
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Population vs. Total Multifamily Inventory
(Growth Scenario)
Total CBD Population Total CBD Units
800 808 955 1,007 1,067
33,000
39,333 39,726 40,093 41,644
7,100
7,317 7,773 8,343
8,764
1,500
1,515 1,526 1,534
1,551
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Employment by Sector (Growth Scenario)
Hotel Jobs Office Jobs Retail Jobs Other Jobs
11. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
10
12,500
13,551
14,786
16,476
19,432
33,000
39,333
39,726
40,093
41,644
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Population vs. Total Office Jobs
(Growth Scenario)
Total CBD Population Office Jobs
800 808
955
1,007
1,067
7,100
7,317
7,773
8,343
8,764
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Hotel/Accomodation Jobs vs. Total Retail Jobs
(Growth Scenario)
Hotel Jobs Retail Jobs
12. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
11
801,000
627,300
847,800
391,500
354,000
720,000
300,000
82,325
180,000
208,699
280,000288,000
549,750
195,000 225,000
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2016 2017 2018 2019*
Bellevue CBD Development Delivery Timeline
Total Bldg. SF Added per Year per Property Type
(Growth Scenario)
Multifamily Office Retail Hotel
3,500,000
3,582,325
3,764,825
3,994,324
4,171,324
8,150
9,040
9,562
11,361
12,158
3,140 3,140
3,873
4,133
4,433
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
4,200,000
4,400,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Residential - Retail - Hotel Correlation Overview
Multifamily vs. Retail vs. Hotel Inventory Development
(Growth Scenario)
Total Retail SF Total Multifamily Units Hotel Rooms
* Development pipeline projected to Q4 2019 to estimate population and jobs at the start of 2020.
13. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
12
ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN SCENARIO
Year Office Jobs Retail Jobs Hotel Jobs Total Jobs New Residents Total Residents
2016 33,000 7,100 800 42.400 1,248 12,500
2017 33,165 7,310 804 42.610 732 13,350
2018 36,357 7,716 951 46.355 996 13,748
2019 38,310 7,805 956 48.397 426 14,898
2020 38,118 7,817 947 48.409 168 15,686
5-Year Change % 16.0% 10% 18% 14% 3,571 25%
Annual Change 3.1% 2.0% 3.7% 2.8% 714 5.1%
Includes: new office towers (minus Centre 425 as it is 100% leased to Amazon) to 85% leased, Expedia jobs leave by end of 2019, multifam-
ily leases up to 85% occupancy, retail = 90% leased, and some projects do not move forward this cycle
800 804 951 956 947
33,000 33,165
36,357 38,310 36,118
7,100 7,310
7,716
7,805
7,817
1,500 1,508
1,515
1,521
1,526
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Employment Overview by Sector
(Slowdown Scenario)
Hotel Jobs Office Jobs Retail Jobs Other Jobs
14. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
13
12,500
13,350
13,748
14,898
15,686
33,000
33,165
36,357
38,310
36,118
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Population vs. Total Office Jobs (Slowdown Scenario)
Total CBD Population Office Jobs
8,150
9,040
9,562
10,272
10,576
12,500
13,350
13,748
14,898
15,686
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Population vs. Total Multifamily Inventory
(Slowdown Scenario)
Total CBD Units Total CBD Population
15. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
14
42,400
42,610
46,355
48,397
46,409
12,500
13,350
13,748
14,898
15,686
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Population vs. Total Employment
(Slowdown Scenario)
Total CBD Jobs Total CBD Population
800 804
951
956
947
7,100
7,310
7,716
7,805 7,817
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
7,000
7,100
7,200
7,300
7,400
7,500
7,600
7,700
7,800
7,900
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bellevue CBD Total Hotel Jobs vs. Total Retail Jobs
(Slowdown Scenario)
Hotel Jobs Retail Jobs
16. The FUTURE of DOWNTOWN BELLEVUE
15
3,500,000
3,582,325
3,764,825 3,788,625 3,809,8248,150
9,040
9,562
10,272 10,576
3,140 3,140
3,873 3,873 3,873
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
3,000,000
3,100,000
3,200,000
3,300,000
3,400,000
3,500,000
3,600,000
3,700,000
3,800,000
3,900,000
4,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Residential - Retail - Hotel Correlation Overview
Multifamily vs. Retail vs. Hotel Development
(Slowdown Scenario)
Retail SF Total CBD Units Hotel Rooms
