Why Pakistan is in Fragile states. Its comparison with benchmark India.

1. Fragile States and Development Outcomes
Presentation
Prepared by:
Byungtae Park
Tangyin
Indra Niptama
Syed Hasan Bilal Gilani
Inayat Ullah
Nousahd Khan

2. Quick Facts of Pakistan
Remarks
Population 186mn
Unemployment rate 6.75%
Inflation rate 4.4 %
GDP Growth Rate
4.7%
Labor force 65m
Agriculture(GDP Share) 20.3 %
Industry (GDP Share) 20.9 %
Services (GDP Share) 58.8 %
Pop below poverty line 29.5%
Literacy rate 60%
Dominant religion Islam
• Service sector is
contributing higher
GDP which is 58.8%,
agriculture sector is
contributing 20.3%
share and industrial
sector contributes
20.9%.
450
470
1400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)

3. WORLD WIDE GOVERNANCE INDICATORS: THE CASE OF
PAKISTAN
 Pakistan is situated in southern part of Asia, in its north lies China the Central
Asian states and the Russian federation, to the west is Afghanistan and Iran
while to the east is India.
 One of the diversified countries of the world in terms of its culture, landscape,
and climate.

4. GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
 The country is located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia,
China and the Middle East and is thus at the fulcrum of a regional
market with a vast population, large and diverse resources, and
untapped potential for trade(World Bank, 2016).
 Proximity of great powers(China, Russia)
 Gateway to central Asia- oil and energy game.
 Significance as a transit economy.
 Significance as an important link in the chain of Muslim countries.
 Front line role in the war against terrorism.
 Only Muslim country having Nuclear capability.

5. VULNERABILITY
 The post-independence history of Pakistan has been characterized by
periods of military rule, political instability and conflicts with neighboring
India beside significant natural disasters e.g. Earthquakes, Floods etc.
The country continues to face challenging problems, including:
 Terrorism.
 Overpopulation .
 Corruption.
 Illiteracy.
 Poverty.

6. VOICE & ACCOUNTABILITY:
Year Score
1996 28.8
2014 27.1
 Before the Military Coup in 1999, the country was witnessing a purely
democratic rule where citizens had voice in Making public decision.
 However, Political victimization started soon after the Coup which lasted for a
decade during dictatorship (1999 to 2008).
 Unfair use of law enforcing agencies against political parties’ workers and
leaders.
 Most of the public sector institutions were run by Military Officers.
 Accountability of only pro democracy had been started.
 There is an upward trend in indicator for Voice & accountability after the
restoration of democracy in 2008.
Year Score
2007 20.2
2014 27.1

7. ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM:
Year Score
1996 12.5
2014 3.4
 Pakistan enjoyed a completely peaceful and stable political environment before 9/11 attacks
in the US, however, US Invasion in Afghanistan against Taliban Regime proved to be a
catalyst in developing an extreme narrative in the region.
 The country is still bearing the brunt of that narrative in terms of Human, economic and
social losses.
 Infiltration of non-state actors due to 2,250 km border that Pakistan shares with Afghanistan.
 Due to Pakistan’s front line role in the War on Terror, most of the terrorist declared war
against Pakistan.
 Pakistan suffered huge human and economic damages due to narrative which prevailed in
the Buffer zone along Pak-afghan border.
Year Score
2007 0.07
2014 3.4

8. AGGREGATE FINANCIAL LOSSES DUE TERRORISM
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15*
Loses($Bn)

9. CASUALTIES: CIVILIAN AND MILITARY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Civilian Secuirty Personnel

10. POLITICAL STABILITY
Year Score
1996 12.5
2014 3.4
 Pakistan experienced a democratic period in the 90s however, the Military Coup of 1999
vanished all the political developments.
 The elected Prime Minister was arrested followed by political victimization.
 Political environment remain unstable during the struggle for democracy restoration.
 The dictator tried to influence the judiciary which resulted into a historic movement for the
restoration of Judiciary in 2007.
 The dictatorship came to an end in 2008.
 The indicator for Voice & accountability remained the same from 2007 to 2013.
 First peaceful transfer of power from one elected government to another.
Year Score
2007 0.07
2014 3.4

11. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS:
Year Score
1996 30.7
2014 22.1
 Installation of Dummy(Local and National) Government in 2002 led to
weak implementation of Government Regulations.
 Prolonged Split on the distribution of NFC Award among Provinces.
 Due to the War on Terror and Conflicts in Baluchistan province, the
government could not show up.
 Inefficient Government machinery for Disaster Preparedness and
Management.
 Governments of different political parties in difference provinces and a
Federal Government weakened by Dictatorship.

12. REGULATORY SYSTEM
Year Score
1996 30.9
2014 27.9
 The country’s crisis-ridden gas and electricity sectors.
 Privatization was encouraged during the democratic
governments(Except ZA Bhutto Era).
 During the Military rule, Tax regime remained relatively weak.
 The 2015/16 budget made several changes to the tax regime.
 Corruption itself as an obstacle to effective regulation in the
country.

13. RULE OF LAW:
Year Score
1996 28.7
2014 23.6
 Dictatorship from 1999 to 2007.
 Disruption of Judiciary two times during Military Dictatorship.
 Favoritism & Nepotism.
 Violence and terrorism started in Pakistan Massive insurgency in
two provinces which challenged the state legitimacy.
Year Score
2007 21.1
2014 23.6

14. CONTROL OF CORRUPTION:
Year Score
1996 8.8
2014 21.6
 Establishment of National Accountability Bureau.
 This is the only indicator which has shown increasing trend
from 1996.
 Freedom of media which creates awareness in public
against corruption.
 Media highlighted the major corruption scandals in the
country.

17. Corruption Perception Index 2015

18. World Happiness Report 2016

20. BENCHMARKING
PAKISTAN VS INDIA

21. INDIA
GDP Per Capita
GDP Growth % Remarks
Population 1.29Bn
Unemployment rate 4.9%
Inflation rate 3%
Labor force 496million
Agriculture (GDP Share) 17.8%
Industry (GDP Share) 30.1%
Services (GDP Share) 52.1%
Pop below poverty
line
21.9%
Literacy rate 74%
Dominant religion Hinduism
Quick facts
• Service sector is contributing
higher GDP which is 52.1%,
agriculture sector is
contributing 17.1% share. In
2000, the share was 23 %.
Where Industrial share is 31.1%
, In 2000 It was 26%. Which
shows that India is moving agr
to Industrial sector.
• GDP has experienced growth
over the past 3 years but
showing decline in different
years. The highest growth was
in 2006 and 2010 with 9.3%
and 10.3 %.
• GDP Per Capita$ has also
experienced ups and downs
but it is continuously growing
from 2012 to 2014, from 1449$
in 2012 to 1581$ in 2014.
9.3 9.8
3.9
8.5
10.3
6.6
5.1
6.9
7.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
816
1050 1022
1124
1387
1471 1449 1455
1581
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

22. GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
62.0%
57.2% 56.3%
50.2%
59.1%
61.1% 60.1%
59.1% 59.1% 60.1% 60.2%
60.7% 60.6%
58.8% 61.1%
61.1%
19.2%
13.9%
17.8% 15.9%
8.7%
13.5%
17.8%
17.3% 13.9% 14.4%
10.9% 12.3% 11.3% 11.8% 12.8% 13.6%
53.7% 54.1%
51.2% 51.7%
55.1% 55.1% 55.1% 54.1%
56.8%
54.4%
56.0% 56.5% 55.0%
47.4% 47.4%
45.2%
32.4% 32.8%
42.6% 40.2% 40.7% 39.2% 46.6%
45.6%
44.2% 40.8%
42.6% 39.2% 39.8%
34.0% 34.4% 34.6%
59.3%
60.3% 59.8%
51.2% 55.0%
54.1% 57.9% 56.9%
56.0%
56.3% 55.0% 54.5% 52.1% 52.6% 52.6% 54.3%
40.0%
43.9% 46.3%
38.0% 42.9%
43.4% 43.4% 45.9%
40.8% 43.7%
30.0% 36.2%
33.2% 34.9% 35.4% 36.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India
Voice & Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terroism
Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law Control of Corruption
28.8%
30.8%
11.1% 14.4%
13.0% 14.9%
16.8%
24.0%
20.2%
23.1%
22.3% 26.1%
24.9%
22.7%
24.6% 27.1%
12.5% 13.5%
14.4%
5.8% 7.7% 6.7% 5.3%
2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9%
3.4%
30.7% 36.1%
31.2%
41.5% 40.5% 39.5% 40.0%
42.0%
39.3%
28.6%
24.4%
24.9%
21.3%
23.9% 23.4% 22.1%
30.9%
27.9%
21.1% 21.1% 23.0%
18.1%
26.5%
35.3% 32.0% 32.0% 33.0%
30.6%
28.9%
24.9%
24.9% 27.9%
28.7%
24.9%
19.6%
28.2% 28.2%
20.6%
21.5% 23.4%
21.1%
19.2%
21.3%
27.5%
20.2% 19.0%
21.3%
23.6%
8.8%
15.6%
22.4% 22.0%
27.3%
12.7%
13.7%
23.4%
24.8%
21.8%
14.4% 13.3% 14.2% 13.9%
17.7% 21.6%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pakistan
Voice & Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
Government Effectivness Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law Control of Corruption

23. 12.5%
13.5%
14.4%
5.8%
7.7%
6.7%
5.3%
2.4%
0.1% 0.0%
1.4%
0.5% 0.5%
0.9% 0.9%
3.4%
19.2%
13.9%
17.8%
15.9%
8.7%
13.5%
17.8%
17.3%
13.9%
14.4%
10.9%
12.3%
11.3%
11.8%
12.8%
13.6%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
India vs Pakistan: Political Stability and Absences of Violence
Pakistan India

24. GNI PER CAPITA, LIFE EXPECTANCY
450
470
1400
350
450
1570
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)
Pakistan India
63
68
61.2
62.5
66.2
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Life Expectancy
India Pakistan

25. EXTREME POVERTY PAKISTAN VS INDIA

26. BENCHMARKING
PAKISTAN VS CHINA

27. QUICK FACTS CHINA
Population 1,364 Billion
Unemployment rate 4.1%
Inflation rate 1,8%
Labor force 806 million
Agriculture (GDP Share) 9.2%
Industry (GDP Share) 42,7%
Services (GDP Share) 48.1%
Pop below poverty line 6.1%
Literacy rate 96.4%
Dominant religion Buddhism
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China GDP
• Industrial sector in China
contribute 42.7%, the highest
GDP contribution come from
Service sector which is reach
48.1% share while agriculture
contribute 9.2%. In 2000
agriculture share 2.3% while
industrial share was 45,4%.
There is no significant change
in Industry but high change in
agriculture sector
• China GDP growth has reached
the top in 2007 with 14.2% but
continue to drop gradually until
2014 with 7.3%. This condition
affected by financial crisis in
2008.
• China GDP Per Capita shows
the consistency to grow up
from 2006 to 2014, which
started from $2082 in 2006 to
$7590 in 2014. this condition
placed China on upper middle
income country.
Remarks
GDP growth rate %
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

28. GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
12.0% 10.6% 11.5%
6.3%
7.2%
7.2% 7.7% 6.3% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2%
5.2% 5.6% 4.7% 5.2% 5.4%
41.3%
30.3% 35.1% 32.2%
27.9%
32.2% 31.3%
28.4% 28.4% 29.7% 30.8%
25.0%
27.8% 28.4% 27.0%
29.6%
46.8%
53.2% 53.7% 55.1%
57.1% 59.0%
53.2%
57.1%
59.7% 59.2% 58.4% 57.9% 59.2%
56.0% 54.5%
66.3%
47.5%
37.3% 36.3%
33.3%
42.6%
44.6%
50.5%
48.5%
51.0% 51.5%
45.9% 44.5% 44.1% 43.5% 43.5% 45.2%
36.4%
38.8%
35.9% 39.2%
40.2% 38.8% 37.8%
37.3%
41.1%
45.2%
45.5% 45.5% 43.7%
38.9% 39.8% 42.8%
43.9% 45.9%
50.7%
33.7%
43.4%
34.6%
31.7%
37.1%
33.5% 35.4% 34.9%
32.4%
35.1% 38.8%
46.9%
47.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China
28.8%
30.8%
11.1% 14.4%
13.0% 14.9%
16.8%
24.0%
20.2%
23.1% 22.3% 26.1%
24.9%
22.7%
24.6% 27.1%
12.5% 13.5%
14.4%
5.8% 7.7% 6.7% 5.3%
2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9%
3.4%
30.7% 36.1%
31.2%
41.5% 40.5% 39.5% 40.0%
42.0%
39.3%
28.6%
24.4%
24.9%
21.3%
23.9% 23.4% 22.1%
30.9%
27.9%
21.1% 21.1%
23.0%
18.1%
26.5%
35.3% 32.0% 32.0% 33.0%
30.6%
28.9%
24.9%
24.9% 27.9%
28.7% 24.9%
19.6%
28.2% 28.2%
20.6%
21.5% 23.4% 21.1%
19.2%
21.3%
27.5%
20.2% 19.0%
21.3%
23.6%
8.8%
15.6%
22.4% 22.0%
27.3%
12.7%
13.7%
23.4%
24.8%
21.8%
14.4% 13.3% 14.2% 13.9%
17.7%
21.6%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pakistan
Voice & Accountability Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
Government Effectivness Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law Control of Corruption

29. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China vs Pakistan: Voice & Accountability
Pakistan China

30. GNI PER CAPITA, LIFE EXPECTANCY & POVERTY
2050
2490
3070
3650
4300
5000
5870
6710
7400
820 910 1020 1060 1080 1150 1260 1360 1400
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)
China Pakistan
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Life Expectancy
Pakistan China

31. EXTREME POVERTY, PAKISTAN VS CHINA

32. DETERMINANTS OF A RESILIENT PAKISTAN
 Stable Democracy and Freedom of Speech.
 Successful campaign against militants has reduced violence
significantly in recent days.
 Strong Social fabric and traditions.
 Strong Judiciary as a positive prospect.
 A brighter outlook for Sino-Pakistani economic ties.
 Balancing relationships in the Middle East(on Yamen Issue).
 Improved prospects for peace in Afghanistan.
 India-Pakistan talks to begin soon.

33. FUTURE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
 Pak China Economic Corridor($46 bn).
 Pakistan’s increasing working-age population provides the country with
a potential demographic dividend but also with the critical challenge to
provide adequate services and jobs.
 Pakistan is a junction of south Asia, west Asia and central Asia; a way
from resource efficient countries to resource deficient countries.
 Pakistan has been traditionally ally of emerging economic giant; china.
So in case of any shift in world’s politics, Pakistan’s geo-strategic
significance would further be enhanced.
 Saudi-Iran Relations and Pakistan’s role in the wake of Sectarian
Conflicts
 (WB, ADB, Moody’s, S&P)

34. CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION
 Despite many challenges, the country has achieved significant
improvement in terms of economic development and terrorism
specially in conflict areas i.e FATA & Baluchistan.
 Terrorism as the root cause of fragility. Therefore, the world should
recognize the role of the country being the front line state in the
WOT and support Pakistan. There should be:
 International Agreement against Terrorism
 Improvement on Border Control
 Comprehensive Plan by Government
 Despite their problems, Pakistan is resilient enough to withstand
tremendous shocks.
*****We hope the future is brighter*****

35. THANK YOU
Q&A