The year 2020 brings historic logistical and transportation challenges: container shortages, stopover cancellations, short-notice overloads in sea freight and an overall increase in freight rates, reduced air freight capacity, all this is coupled with the recurring problems of the high season in China with the end of year festivities. Almost a year after the emergence of the pandemic, we are experiencing a disruption in the transport market. How can this situation be explained? How to deal with these disruptions? To answer these questions, Loïc Benattar, Vice President Asia-Pacific of the Bansard International Group, has shared his experience with the French Chamber of Singapore via videoconference on Thursday, January 28, 2021. Find back the presentation of the webinar. For more information do not hesitate to visit our website at www.bansard.com or contact Aurelie ROCHON, Route Development Manager based in Singapore at aurelie.rochon@bansard.com.sg Data sources: IATA, Eurocontrol Statfor, Alphaliner, Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, Le Figaro, Lepoint

1. WEBINAR - 28-JAN-2021
SHORTAGES, CANCELLATIONS,
SURCHARGES, PRICE INCREASES...
HOW TO OVERCOME THE CHALLENGES OF AIR
AND SEA TRANSPORT FOR EXPORT?

2. 28-Jan-2021
I. BANSARD INTERNATIONAL, WHO ARE WE?
II. AIR FREIGHT FOCUS
III. SEA FREIGHT & RAIL FOCUS
IV. OUR RECOMMENDATIONS
Agenda
WEBINAR
SHORTAGES, CANCELLATIONS, SURCHARGES, PRICE INCREASES...
HOW TO OVERCOME THE CHALLENGES OF AIR AND SEA TRANSPORT FOR EXPORT?

3. AIR FREIGHT
1. SITUATION AS OF JANUARY 2021
2. A (LOGICAL) LACK OF CAPACITY, THE MAIN REASONS
3. ANALYSIS & FORECASTING
I.

4. `
÷ 2
INONEYEAR
DAILYFLIGHTS
AIR
FREIGHT
I.

5. • REASON #1: A PASSENGER FLEET
THAT REMAINS GROUNDED
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY RECOVERY
ISSTIMULATING AIR FREIGHT,
BUT NOT AIR TRAVELS
A LACK OF CAPACITY,
MAIN REASONS
AIR
FREIGHT
• REASON #2 : COVID RELATED
CREW REGULATIONS
• REASON #3: A STILL VERY STRONG DEMAND FOR PPE & ELECTRONICS PRODUCTS
I.

6. • REASON #4: STRONG E-COMMERCE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE CHANGE IN CONSUMPTION HABITS
• REASON #6: SEP-DEC & PRE-CNY, A TRADITIONAL PERIOD OF PEAK SEASON
A LACK OF CAPACITY,
MAIN REASONS
AIR
FREIGHT
I.
OFCROSS-BORDER
e-commerce
istransportedbyair
80%
• REASON #7: HEAVY AIRPORT CONGESTIONS
• REASON #5: LACK OF CAPACITY IN RAIL AND SEA FREIGHT

7. v STABILIZATION OF THE MARKET AT A HIGHER LEVEL THAN BEFORE,
SUSTAINED BY A STILL STRONG DEMAND FOR PPE (COVID TESTS IN PARTICULAR)
AND A QUICK ADAPTATION OF CAPACITIES TO THE MARKET
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
THREE KEY PARAMETERS TO BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT TO FORECAST 2021:
> VACCINES DISTRIBUTION
> FINANCIAL HEALTH OF AIRLINES
> typology OF PRODUCTS WILLING TO PAY
THIS PRICE LEVEL
>>>
AIR
FREIGHT
I.

8. AIR
FREIGHT
I.
vaccine transport
will reorganize the routing of cargo flights.
12 TO 15 BILLION UNITS WILL BE PRODUCED,
THE WORLD'S POPULATION WILL NOT BE COVERED UNTIL 2023 OR 2024
VACCINES PRODUCTION ZONE: EUROPE, CHINA, INDIA & USA
è INCREASING AND PRIORITIZING OF FREIGHT CAPACITY FROM THESE ORIGINS
THE FIRST VACCINES SUPPLY CHAIN HAS BEEN A REAL LOGISTICAL CHALLENGE, PART OF
THEM WILL HAVE TO
• BE STORED AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES, DEPENDING ON THE VACCINE TYPE
• BE DELIVERED IN LESS THAN 5 DAYS TO THE FINAL CONSUMER
FORECASTING 2021
SECOND PARAMETER

9. > TRANSITION FROM CASH BURN TO CASH
GENERATION IN SIGHT BUT DIFFICULT NEXT
6 MONTHS FOR AIRLINES AS CASH BURN
CONTINUES
FORECASTING 2021
SECOND PARAMETER
> 2021 REVENUES ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 50% OF PRE-CRISIS FORECAST
POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRLINES GOING BANKRUPT
AIR
FREIGHT
I.

10. FORECASTING 2021
THIRD PARAMETER
EXTERNAL FACTORS
AIR
FREIGHT
I.
§ THE SPREAD OF THE PANDEMIC DISEASE ? ECONOMIC CRISIS?
§ TRAVEL REGULATIONS AND
ITS IMPACT IN PASSENGERS TRAFFIC
§ PPE & MEDICAL EQUIPMENT
DEMANDS
COVID TRAVEL REGULATION (26 JAN, 2021)

11. SEA FREIGHT
1. SITUATION AS OF JANUARY 2021
2. CAUSE #1: INCREASE OF DEMAND
3. CAUSE #2: CONTAINER SHORTAGE, AND ITS ORIGINS
4. CAUSE #3: A TRADITIONAL PEAK SEASON
5. ANALYSIS & FORECASTING
II.

12. `
SEA
FREIGHT
II.
1,500
USD
IN MAY,2020
RECORD RATES
40HC PRICE FROM ASIA TO EUROPE (except UK)
10,000
USD
IN JAN,2021
VS.
×6

13. `
SEA
FREIGHT
II.
CARRIER SCHEDULE RELIABILITY
DOWN To 30% Vs. 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SCHEDULERELIABILITY 2019 2020
Source: sea-intelligence maritime analysis – jan 2021
DROPPED to 50% last
November,
COMPARED to 80%
in November 2019

14. CAUSE #1 :
INCREASE OF DEMAND
SEA
FREIGHT
II.
+ 7.2% in JULY
CHINESE EXPORTATIONS
+ 21.1% in NOVEMBER
2020 VS. 2019

15. `
SEA
FREIGHT
II.
8/12 CARRIERS
HAVE INCREASED THEIR FLEET In 2020
Source:
alphaliner
CARRIER FLEET CAPACITY, 29 DEC VS. 1 JAN
MORE THAN 300.000 TEUS FOR HMM & CMA CGM
RANKING CARRIER
RANKING
1JAN
CAPACITY
29DEC
GAIN/LOSS
SINCE1JAN
GAIN/LOSS
SINCE1JAN
1 APM-Maersk (1) 4,106,928 -85,814 -2.0%
2 MSC (2) 3,855,928 89,879 2.4%
3 COSCO Group (3) 3,022,882 84,852 2.9%
4 CMA CGM Group (4) 3,012,515 316,652 11.8%
5 Happag-Lloyd (5) 1,726,365 8,476 0.5%
6 ONE (6) 1,577,156 -4,212 -0.3%
7 Evergreen (7) 1,278,390 1,822 0.1%
8 HMM (10) 719,026 330,500 85.0%
9 Yang Ming (8) 621,652 -24,978 -3.9%
10 Zim (11) 359,025 66,722 22.8%
11 Wan Hai Line (12) 316,908 42,872 15.6%
12 PIF (9) 279,002 -113,408 -28.9%

16. BLANK SAILING & CANCELLATIONS OF CONTAINER ORDERS
PLANNED TO REPLACE THOSE NO LONGER SUITABLE FOR SHIPPING
RESUMPTION OF ORDERS FOR NEW CONTAINERS BY SHIPPING COMPANIES
~ DID YOU KNOW ? ~
The 5 largest container manufacturers in the world are in China and
represent 85% of the world production.
THE LEASING COMPANIES STOCK OF CONTAINERS HAS DEPLENISHED
Q1
Q2
Q2
CAUSE #2 :
SHORTAGE OF CONTAINERS
A CONTAINER SOURCING ISSUE
SEA
FREIGHT
II.

17. <!>
SLOW DESTINATIONS
FOR THE RETURN
OF CONTAINERS
RECOVERY OF MARKET TO THE US, AUSTRALIA & LATAM
> REDIRECTION OF VESSELS TO THESE DESTINATIONS
CHASSIS SHORTAGE (IN USA)
Q2
Q3
Q4 PLAN TO RETURN EMPTY CONTAINERS TO CHINA
è BEGINNING OF THE SHORTAGE OF CONTAINERS ON THE MARKET
CAUSE #2 :
SHORTAGE OF CONTAINERS
A CONTAINER SOURCING ISSUE
SEA
FREIGHT
II.

18. TROUVER GRAPH
CAUSE #3 :
TRADITIONAL PEAK SEASON
SEA
FREIGHT
END OF THE YEAR &
PRE-CHINESE NEW YEAR
CELEBRATIONS
II.

19. WILL PRICE GO DOWN FAST OR NOT?
§ 3 ALLIANCES
§ VERY AGILE SHIPPING LINES THAT CAN TAKE OUT CAPACITY IN VERY SHORT TERM
3 WEEKS VS. 8-12 WEEKS BEFORE
> > > IF MARKET GOES DOWN CAPACITY WILL GO DOWN TOO
§ MARKET CAN BE SUSTAINED AT HIGHER RATES THAN OTHERS.
§ NO ECONOMICAL LOGIC FOR SHIPPING LINES TO COME BACK TO THE TRADITIONAL LEVEL
SEA
FREIGHT
1. UNDERSTANDING THE NEW SEA FREIGHT MARKET
II.
PRICE DECREASE
OF THE MARKET
BLANKSAILINGS
LIMITED DECREASE IN
SEA FREIGHT RATES
OFFER AT THE
LEVEL OF DEMAND
>>
>>

20. WILL PRICE GO DOWN FAST OR NOT?
SEA
FREIGHT
2. The container shortage won’t be resolved immediately after CNY
II.
AT LEAST 3 MONTHS BEFORE EQUIPMENT COMES BACK TO AN “ACCEPTABLE” SITUATION
> SOME SHIPPING LINES HAVE MANAGED BETTER THEIR EQUIPMENT THAN OTHERS
>>

21. WILL PRICE GO DOWN FAST OR NOT?
SEA
FREIGHT
3. DEMAND AFTER CNY WILL BE SUSTAINED
II.
>>
§ MANY ORDERS HAVE BEEN PUT “ON HOLD” BEFORE CNY UNTIL MARKET GOES DOWN.
§ CHINA HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF ITS RELATIVE “COVID FREE INTERNAL SITUATION” TO GRAB
MOST OF THE ORDERS:
Long term deals have been signed at HIGHER LEVELS COMPARED TO LAST YEAR WITH BCOs.
>>
>> TRADITIONAL CLOSING OF PRODUCTION SITES REDUCES TO MINIMUM DURING CNY
>> GOVERNMENT HAS LIMITED DRASTICALLY THE MOVEMENT OF POPULATION WITHIN THE
PROVINCES SO MANY WORKERS ARE STAYING AT THEIR PRODUCTION PLACE.
>>

22. BANSARD INTERNATIONAL
WHO ARE WE?
3PL FREIGHT FORWARDING COMPANY,
EXPERT IN INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS
Ø FOUNDED IN FRANCE IN 1963
Ø IMPLANTED IN ASIA SINCE 2004
`
IV.

24. KEY FIGURES
z
BUSINESS
VOLUME
OF
IN
2020
SPREADOF
ACTIVITY
IV.
275 M. €
+43%
IN 5 YEARS

25. ANY QUESTIONS ?
Aurélie ROCHON, Route Development Manager
43 Changi South Avenue, 486164 Singapore
Mob. +65 8100 9865 (Whatsapp)
aurelie.rochon@bansard.com.sg
YOUR BANSARD SINGAPORE KEY CONTACT