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Hypercoagulability and 
Duration of Anticoagulation: 
How Long is Long Enough? 
Kathryn Hassell, MD 
Professor of Medicine 
Division of Hematology 
University of Colorado Denver
Disclosures 
• No financial or other conflicts of interest 
• Off label use: discussion not planned
Objectives 
• Assist patients with decision-making about 
duration of anticoagulation by providing 
information about: 
– risk of recurrent venous thrombosis 
– risk of complications of therapy (bleeding) 
• Decide if hypercoagulabile testing will be useful 
for a patient
24 year old man with unprovoked PE. 
No bleeding problems, negative hypercoag testing. 
How long should he take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Lifelong
19 year old woman with DVT while on OCPs for 3 years. 
No bleeding problems, Factor V Leiden positive. 
How long should she take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Lifelong
45 year old man with history of 2 clots, (calf, popliteal), 
each after arthroscopy. No bleeding, negative testing 
How long should he take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Lifelong
60 year old woman with history of PE on tamoxifen for 
metastatic breast cancer. No bleeding, no testing. 
How long should she take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Lifelong
64 year old man with history of PE after bladder cancer 
surgery 5 months ago. “Too much bleeding” to take 
anticoagulation after surgery, but in your office now. 
How long should he start anticoagulation for his PE? 
If yes, for how long? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Lifelong
Outline of Presentation 
• Management of current VTE episode 
– Duration of initial/acute therapy (e.g. LMWH) 
– Duration of subsequent/chronic therapy 
• Based on time (e.g. 3 vs. 6 months) 
• Role of other factors (e.g. residual clot or symptoms) 
• Impact of hypercoagulable tests 
• Prevention of subsequent new episodes 
– Balancing risk for recurrent clot vs. bleeding 
– Role of factors which may impact estimate of risk 
• Review major basic principles along the way
Principle of Acute Treatment 
• Anticoagulation given to reduce the risk of 
new thrombosis 
– Anticoagulation doesn’t actively change an acute 
thrombus – endogenous thrombolysis occurs 
whether or not someone is on anticoagulation 
– Anticoagulation simply prevents new thrombosis 
from forming 
• In areas of recannalization 
• Extension beyond original
Treatment for Acute VTE 
• Risk of no treatment for acute DVT or PE: 
– Untreated PE → fatal PE: 26% at 1 year 
– Untreated proximal DVT → fatal PE: 5% at 10 days, 
10% at 30 days 
– No reduction in mortality with IVC filters 
Young, Cochrane Database Sys Rev 17:CD006212, 2010 
• Judged to be sufficiently high enough to create a 
standard to treat of all PE/proximal DVT (VTE) 
unless bleeding is likely to be life-threatening 
– Guidelines favor treatment of even calf DVT
Eighth ACCP 2012 – DVT or PE 
• Acute Management 
– Subcutaneous LMWH 
– Intravenous or subcutaneous UFH 
– Fondaparinux 
– Rivaroxaban, Apixaban (FDA approved after the 
guidelines were developed)
Eighth ACCP 2012 – DVT or PE 
• Other Management Considerations 
– Initiation of VKA (warfarin) on first day (if using 
LMWH/heparin/fondaparinux) 
– Continue LMWH/UFH until INR stable and ≥ 
2.0 for at least 24 hours 
– Treatment with LMWH/UFH for at least 5 days 
– Switch to dabigatran after 5-10 days of LMWH
Initial Management of Thrombosis 
• Acute intervention: 5 days of active therapy 
– Active antithrombotic therapy (e.g. heparin/LMWH/new 
oral agents) 
– Initiation of long-term maintenance (e.g. warfarin/new 
oral agents) 
• Underlying thrombophilia does not impact 
selection or intensity of anticoagulation 
– Heparin OK for AT def 
– Warfarin OK for PC/PS deficiencies 
Kearon, Current Opin Hematol 19:1, 2012
Warfarin-Induced Skin Necrosis 
• VERY RARE 
– As likely related to acquired/transient protein C/S 
deficiency as inherited state 
– Not a contraindication to initiate warfarin 
• “Active” anticoagulation 
(e.g. heparin) protects 
against the initial further 
drop in levels with warfarin 
Crowther, Arch Intern Med 159:46, 1999; 
Kearon, Current Opin Hematol 19:1, 2012
Management of Thrombosis 
• Different INR intensity for APS? No 
104 patients with APS (Finazzi, J Thromb Haemost 3:848, 2005) 
2-3 >3 
Recurrent thrombosis 5.5% 11.1% 
All bleeding 14.6% 27.8% 
Major bleeding 3.6% 5.3% 
INR 2-3 is 
current standard 
106 patients with APS (Crowther, NEJM 349:1133, 2003) 
2-3 3-4 
Recurrent thrombosis 3% 10.7% 
Per pt-yr 1.3% 4.1% 
Major bleeding 4 (19%) 3 (27%) 
Anticoagulation stopped 13 21
Duration of Treatment For 
A Given VTE Episode 
• For DVT/PE, 3 months appears to be the 
minimum time needed 
– HR 1.52 (1.14-2.02) if treated only 1-1.5 months 
vs. 3 months or longer 
Boutitie, BMJ 342; d3036, 2011 
• Up to 40% recurrence if anticoagulation 
interrupted during the first 3 months 
– 100-fold increase in peri-operative VTE risk if 
interruption in the first month 
Kearon, NEJM 336:1506, 1997
Balancing Risks and Benefits 
• Analysis of rate of fatal events and case 
fatality rates in the first 3 months on therapy 
Event Rate of Fatal Event Case Fatality Rate 
Fatal PE 0.4% (0.3-0.6) 11.3% (8.0-15.2) 
Fatal bleed 0.2% (0.1-0.3) 11.3% (7.5-15.9) 
Carrier, Ann Intern Med 152:578. 2010 
Schulman, Sem Thromb Hemost 39:141, 2013
Principle: 3 Months of Time 
Not 3 Months of Anticoagulation 
• Adequacy of anticoagulation doesn’t matter 
–Leiden Thrombophilia Study (2003) 
– 234 patients followed for recurrence after 
stopping their anticoagulation 
» Treated for 3, 6, or >6 months 
–No increase in long-term recurrence risk for 
those who spent more time out of range 
» No difference in recurrence risk based on 
duration of therapy, either 
Gadisseur, J Thromb Hemostas 5:931, 2007
Are longer finite periods better? 
• No evidence to indicate periods longer than 3 
months is helpful to reduce risk of recurrence 
– Meta-analysis of 7 studies comparing 3, 6, 12, and 
27 months showed no difference is subsequent 
recurrence after therapy stopped 
– Included provoked, unprovoked, DVT and PE 
– Some authors cite “trend” to increased recurrence 
after 3 vs. 6 months for unprovoked events: 
• HR 1.39 (0.96-2.01) 
Boutitie, BMJ 342; d3036, 2011; de Jong, BJH 158:433, 2012
What if the clot isn’t gone? 
• Anticoagulation does not make the clot go away 
– Complete residual occlusion can be asymptomatic 
• DVT doesn’t usually go away: e.g. DACUS Study 
• After 3 months of therapy: 
66.8% had residual vein 
thrombosis (RVT) >40% of vein 
diameter 
• The rest could still have clot, 
just less 
Siragusa, Amer J Hematol 86:914, 2011
Residual Vein Thrombosis 
• Conflicting evidence about the role of RVT 
predicting recurrence (more later) 
• No evidence staying on anticoagulation will 
improve resolution of RVT 
– Sustaining anticoagulation because of RVT doesn’t 
make it go away, doesn’t change outcomes 
Prandoni, Ann Intern Med 150:577, 2009
What if there’s still symptoms? 
• May not be related to residual thrombus 
• Anticoagulation does not change the way the blood 
flows; the blood is not “thinner” 
– Factors are still present, they simply lack carboxyl 
groups (due to warfarin) or are bound by drug when 
activated (heparin/LMWH/new oral anticoagulants) 
– Remember, anticoagulation doesn’t promote 
resolution of thrombosis 
• The symptoms will not worsen off anticoagulation 
unless new clot forms
Post-Thrombotic Symptoms 
• Rate of chronic PTS symptoms ~25% de Jong, BJH, 2012 
• Use of compression stockings: S.O.X. Trial 
– Randomized controlled comparison of graded compression 
stocking to placebo stockings (no significant pressure 
applied) 
– Started within a mean of 4 days, used up to 2 years 
– 80% of subjects used more than 3 days/week 
– No SAEs related to either stocking 
• 2% had leg rash/itching 
Kahn, Lancet 383(9920):880, 2014
Post-Thrombotic Symptoms 
• No difference between stockings in moderate/severe 
PTS (14-16%), ulceration (3-4%), recurrent VTE 
Kahn, Lancet 383(9920):880, 2014
Principles (But No Data) 
• Some people choose to sustain anticoagulation 
hoping for: 
– Continued recannulization/resorption of clot 
– Symptom improvement with recannulization and/or 
collateral formation 
• Role of anticoagulation: prevent new thrombosis 
from “undoing” the gains made; NOT active therapy 
• Duration individualized: continued until desired 
improvement attained or the “best it’ll be”
What if they have 
a hypercoagulable state? 
• They HAVE a hypercoagulable state, as 
demonstrated by their episode of thrombosis 
– Most people don’t ever clot (1:1000) 
– Most people don’t clot even when faced with 
prothrombotic risk factors 
– Some people who clot with prothrombotic risk 
factors may not even know they had a clot 
• Does it matter if we give it a name?
An Example: Orthopedic Surgery 
• Even without anticoagulation, only a subset clot, and 
fewer have symptoms – those who do are different 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
Arthroscopy 
THA 
TKA 
Hip Fracture 
Distal DVT Proximal DVT PE 
6th ACCP Conf on Antithrombotic and ThrombolyticTherapy; Chest, 2001
Testing for Thrombophilia 
TEST ABNORMAL RESULT 
Factor V Leiden (FVL) Present 
Prothrombin G20210A mutation (PGM) Present 
Protein C*/Antithrombin activity* Low (<30-40%/<50%) 
Protein S free antigen* Low (<30-40%) 
Anticardiolipin antibodies Mod-High Positive 
2glyoprotein-1 antibodies Mod-High Positive 
Lupus anticoagulant (e.g. dRVVT) Present 
Homocysteine >ULN (12-15) 
ACQUIRED INHERITED 
*should not be measured during acute event and/or on anticoagulation
Testing for Thrombophilia: Pitfalls 
• Sensitive activity assays (Protein C/Protein S) 
– Affected by oral contraceptive use, inflammation, 
antiphospholipid antibodies 
– Values of 50-60% of unclear clinical significance 
• Protein S testing: low values (<40%) expected during 
pregnancy, may take weeks to months to recover post-partum 
• Antiphospholipid antibodies may be reactive 
• Always repeat abnormal values to confirm 
Favaloro, Sem Thromb Haemost 35:695, 2009
Optimal Timing of Testing 
• No active thrombosis – consumes factors 
• No anticoagulants 
– AT low with heparin/LMWH/fondaparinux therapy 
– PC/PS low with warfarin therapy, dabigatran 
• If patient unsure about stopping anticoagulation, 
can do testing on warfarin (except Protein C/S)
Negative Thrombophilia Testing 
• We can detect 7 conditions, but most people with 
clots don’t have these conditions 
– Example: RVT study of unprovoked VTE 
• 1.7% had PC/PS/AT def or LA 
• 21% had FVL and/or PGM, which have minimal 
impact on risk of recurrence 
• “Normal panel” doesn’t change the history of 
clotting or risk estimate of recurrence 
Prandoni, Ann Intern Med, 2009
Role of Positive Thrombophilia 
Testing to Predict Recurrence 
• Modest or no effect from known inherited 
thrombophilias 
– FVL: OR=1.39 (1.15-1.67) PGM: OR=1.20 (0.89-1.61) 
Marchiori, Haematologica 92:1250, 2008 
– PC/PS/AT deficiencies: HR=1.8 (0.9-3.7) 
Christiansen, JAMA 293:2352, 2008 
– Exceptions may be antithrombin deficiency, 
homozygotes for FVL or PGM but limited data 
• Stronger effect likely with antiphospholipid antibody 
syndrome (OR=4.0 [1.2-13]) for unprovoked VTE 
Kearon, Clin Chest Med 31:719, 2010
Effect of Inherited Thrombophilias on 
VTE Recurrence 
• 304 patients with single VTE + family hx 
Patients 
On anticoagulation 
%/year (n=124) 
Off anticoagulation %/year (n=180) 
Males Females 
All 1.1% 9.6% 2.8% 
PC def 0.6% 10.8% 2.9% 
PS def 0.6% 10.5% 3.1% 
AT def 2.7% 11.6% 9.5% 
FVL 0% 7.2% 2.2% 
Multiple 0.9% 10.7% 2.1% 
Vossen, Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol 25:1992; 2005
High Risk APS Patients 
• “High risk” laboratory findings (inconsistent data): 
– Lupus anticoagulant > other tests 
– Anticardiolipin IgG/IgM >40 or >99th %ile 
– β2glycoprotein-1 IgG/IgM >99th %ile 
• Clinical features which may predict thrombosis 
– Other thrombotic risk factors (e.g. OCP use) 
– Co-existent autoimmune disease 
– Suspected but unproven (retrospective, conflicting data) 
• ITP, valvular lesions, history of obstetrical complications, 
livedo rectiularis 
Barbhaiya and Erkan, Curr Opin Rheum 13:59, 2011
Recurrence Risk in APS 
• Risk factors for thrombosis: 
– History 
• previous thrombosis: 5.4% per pt-yr 
• asymptomatic: 0.95% per pt-yr 
– ACA level 
• >40 GPL: 6.12% per pt-yr 
• <40 GPL: 1.25% per pt-yr 
– Having SLE/SLE-like disease 
Finazzi, Am J Med, 100:530, 1996
Principles Based on Available 
Hypercoagulable Testing 
• Most testing doesn’t matter – negative not useful 
• What might indicate higher risk or recurrence off 
anticoagulation? 
– Male with family history and named condition 
• Annual risk 5-10%/year 
– Antithrombin deficiency and family history 
• Annual risk 9-10%/year 
– Antiphospholipid antibody syndrome 
• Annual risk 5-6%/year
Principle for Continuing After 3 
Months 
• Role of anticoagulation shifts to prevention of 
new episodes 
• Individual’s assessment of relative risks 
– Risk (fear) of new thrombosis outweighs risk (fear) 
and inconveniences of therapy
Best Predictor of Recurrence: 
Circumstances Around First Event 
• Unprovoked events, independent of testing: 
– 10-15% recurrence in first 2 years after stopping 
warfarin, then 2-3%/year thereafter 
Ridker, NEJM 348:1425, 2003 
– Cumulative risk at 2-5 years 25%, 10 years 30-40% 
Donadini, J Thromb Thrombolysis, 31:301, 2011 
• Risk of PE (vs. DVT) as the next event 
– 60-70% if first event was PE 
– 20% if first event was DVT 
Agnelli, J Thromb Haemost 25:37, 2008
Recurrence Risk on Placebo 
• 9% at one year after stopping anticoagulation 
Apixaban (AMPLY-Ext) study of unprovoked VTE 
Agnelli, NEJM 2013
Recurrence Risk on Placebo 
• 10% recurrence in first year after discontinuation 
(EINSTEIN-EXT) 
NEJM 363:2499, 2010
Prediction of VTE Recurrence Risk: 
Unprovoked vs. Provoked 
• Prandoni, Haematologica 92:199, 2007 
Unprovoked: 
~20% at 2 years 
~50% at 10 years 
Provoked: 
~10% at 2 years 
~20% at 10 years
Prediction of VTE Recurrence Risk 
• Risk varies with triggering event: 
Idiopathic 3.0-10%/year 
Venous insufficiency 5.5%/year 
Travel-related 
Immobilization 
Infection 
3.0-4.2%/year 
Estrogens 
Trauma 
1.5-4.2%/year 
Postoperative 0.7%/year 
Schulman, J Thromb Haemost 4:734, 2006; Iorio, Arch Intern Med 170:1710, 2010
Travel-Related Thrombosis 
• Only with flights (no other modalities) 
• Background risk 
– 1.1 events/million person-days overall 
– 27 clinical VTE/1 million travelers within 14 days 
– Symptomatic PE “unheard of” in flights <6 hrs 
– Biggest relative risk in flights >8 hrs (>12 hrs) 
• OR 3.6 if clinical VTE risk factors 
– Mostly asymptomatic calf clot by imaging (1-2%) 
– Risk of PE up to 4/million if >12 hour flight 
Philbrick, JGIM 22:107. 2007; Kahn, Chest 141 (2)(Suppl):e195, 2012
Principle: 
Lower Risk After Provoked Events 
• Assumes risk factor was transient 
– Persistent malignancy associated with 20+% risk of 
recurrence in first year if anticoagulation stopped 
de Jong, BJH 158:433, 2012 
– Re-use of estrogen-based OCPs after stopping 
anticoagulation associated with 8-fold risk of 
recurrence 
• Transdermal estrogen and progesterone-only NOT 
associated with increase risk compared to nonusers 
• Risk of recurrence in non-users: 5% in first year 
Vaillant-Roussel, Contracception 84:e23, 2011
Risk of Venous Thrombosis 
Increases with Age 
Overall risk = 1-2 in 1000/year 
AGE 
RISK OF THROMBOSIS 
<1:50,000 
50 y.o. 80 y.o. 
1:700 
1:200 
1:25,000 
1:2500 
Naess, J Thromb Haemost 5:692, 2007; White, Circ 107:1, 2003
Am I in the Recurrence Group? 
• Markers of propensity for recurrence 
– Elevated factor VIII activity (especially if >200%) 
• May double the risk of recurrence 
– Elevation of other factors (IX, XI) may be weak 
predictors of recurrence 
• Current areas of interest: 
– D-dimer 
– Residual vein thrombosis
Role of D-Dimer in Predicting VTE 
Recurrence 
• Elevation in D-dimer does not indicate the presence 
of an acute thrombosis 
– The only diagnostic value is a negative result which 
rules out an acute thrombosis 
Wells, J Thromb Haemost 5 Suppl 1:41, 2007 
• However, measurement of D-dimer at least one 
month off anticoagulation may risk-stratify 
– Negative D-dimer: 3.5%/year 
– Positive D-dimer: 8.9%/year 
Verhovsek, Ann Intern Med 149:481, 2008 
• Which kit? What is “positive”? Age adjusted?
Role of Residual Vein Thrombosis 
(RVT) in Predicting VTE Recurrence 
• Inconsistent association of RVT with increased risk of 
recurrent VTE 
– 4 studies suggest increase risk of ~2-fold 
– 5 studies failed to find an association 
Kearon, Clin Chest Med 31:719, 2010 
• If there is an association, it likely represents a 
systemic biological - not mechanical - phenomenon 
– 40-50% of recurrent events are on the opposite leg 
• Difficult to standardize (definition, technique)
Combination of Stratifying Factors 
• PROLONG: utilization of RVT and/or D-dimer to 
guide anticoagulation 
– 619 subjects with first proximal DVT or PE treated 
with anticoagulation for at least 3 months 
– D-dimer measured 30 days after discontinuation 
• Normal D-dimer (n=310): no further anticoagulation 
• Abnormal D-dimer: randomized 
– No further anticoagulation (n=99) 
– Resume anticoagulation for 18 months (n=81) 
– Residual vein thrombosis assessed (as per previous 
study e.g. 2 mm in common femoral/popliteal vein) 
Cosmi, Eur J Endovasc Surg 39:356, 2010
Use of Stratifying Factors 
• Impact on recurrence: 
– D-dimer if anticoagulation discontinued: 
• Normal: 10% (5.5/100 pt-yrs) 
• Abnormal: 19% (12/100 pt-yrs) HR=2.1 
– RVT: no difference: 11% with vs. 13% without 
Cosmi, Eur J Endovasc Surg 39:356, 2010
Bottom Line Principle 
• If there were no clear precipitating factors, the 
likelihood of recurrence VTE is ~20-25% at 2 years, 
~50% at 10 years 
– Comparable to having APS, AT deficiency, or a male with a 
family history and some other defined states 
– Likely similar for people with persistent recognized risk 
factors (e.g. cancer) 
• The weaker the “precipitating factor”, the higher the 
risk of recurrence 
• D-dimer might discern lower (higher?) risk group
Recurrence Risk on Anticoagulation 
• Risk of recurrence on warfarin therapy 
– Goal INR 2-3: <1%/year 
– Goal INR 1.5-2.0: 2-2.5%/year 
• Risk of recurrence 1-2% over 2 years in studies of 
extended prophylaxis of new oral anticoagulants 
• Risk of recurrence on ASA: 5-7%/year 
– Same as placebo in one study, better in another and in 
meta-analysis (HR ~0.6) 
Ridker, NEJM 348:1425, 2003; Kearon, NEJM 349:631, 2003 
Agnelli, NEJM 368:699, 2013; Brighton, NEJM 367:1979, 2012 
Becattini, NEJM 366:1959, 2012
Bleeding Risk of Long-Term 
Anticoagulation 
• Major bleeding: 0.9-1.4%/year 
– Risk increases with age (e.g. lower in young people) 
– May be slightly lower with new oral agents 0.6-1.0% 
• Annual long-term fatality estimates 
Event Rate of Fatal Event Case Fatality Rate 
Fatal PE 
0.49% (0.36-0.64) 9.0% (6.8-11.8) 
(without tx) 
Schulman, Semin Thromb Hemost 39:141, 2013 
Fatal bleed 
(with tx) 
0.63% (0.61-0.65) 9.1% (2.5-21.7)
Principles Regarding Bleeding 
• Anticoagulation doesn’t cause bleeding 
– Bleeding occurs when a vessel ruptures 
– Anticoagulation doesn’t weaken vessels 
–  
• Risk of major bleeding, including intracranial, 
does not correlate with history of falls 
Donze, Am J Med 125:773, 2012 
Outcome Placebo 
Apixaban 
2.5 mg po bid 
Apixaban 
5.0 mg po bid 
Bleeding 22 (2.7%) 27 (3.5%) 35 (4.3%) 
Major 4 (0.5%) 2 (0.2%) 1 (0.1%) 
Agnelli, ASH, 2012
Bleeding Prediction Rules 
• Systematic review and performance analysis 
– RIETE, HAS-BLED, mOBRI use similar factors 
• Age (>65-75), renal/liver disease, history of bleeding, 
anemia, hypertension, use of anti-plt agents, alcohol 
– Studies often in atrial fibrillation (RIETE in VTE) 
– None with sufficient predictive power to 
distinguish risk groups 
• Low RIETE score may predict a very-low bleeding risk 
Loewen and Dahri, Amer J Hematol 90:1191, 2011
“Clot-ability Scale”: A Conceptual Model 
0 100 
50 
ME PT #1 
PREGNANCY 
PT #2 
PREGNANCY 
LONG-HAUL FLIGHT (?) 
AGE 
Everyone has number 
(inherited/acquired) 
We just can’t measure it! 
WARFARIN 
WARFARIN 
WARFARIN 
ANTICOAGULATION 
Clinical 
Clotting 
Clinical 
Bleeding
Duration of Anticoagulation: 
ACCP 2012 
• Minimum: 3 months for DVT or PE 
– Provoked by transient risk factor = sufficient 
– Unprovoked: favor “extended” over 3 months 
• If bleeding risk is moderate or high, favor 3 
months over longer, even if 2nd unprovoked event 
• If “extended”, annual risk assessment of 
risk/benefit 
Kearon, Chest 141:e419S, 2012
What if they have 
more than one clot? 
• No evidence recurrent provoked events are worse 
than a single provoked event 
– Risk estimate of recurrence is the likely same 
• Some data for multiple unprovoked events 
30% recurrence 
2.5 years of follow-up 
Adapted from Schulman, Am J Med 104:332, 1998 
First 
unprovoked 
event, 
treated for 
6 months 
(n=412) 
Second 
unprovoked 
event 
14% 
6 months 
Indefinite 3% recurrence
Duration: A Review of Principles 
• Anticoagulation does not make clot go away or the 
blood to flow better 
• The body appears to need 3 months to “stabilize” the 
situation (time, not days on drug) 
• No evidence that more than 3 months is better, but 
could reason that some might need more time to 
“heal” before potentially have new clots occur 
• A decision to continue otherwise based on more 
concern about new clotting than bleeding
Deciding on Extended Anticoagulation 
• Current literature endorses “acceptable risk” of 
recurrence of up to 5%/1 year or 15%/5 years 
Kearon, J Thromb Heamost 8:2313, 2012 
• Individual should decide what level of risk is OK: 
– Risk of recurrence clotting based on analysis of the 
initial clotting event 
• If unprovoked, risk is 25% at 2 years, 50% at 10 years 
• Testing usually doesn’t help, D-dimer might 
– Anticoagulation doesn’t cause bleeding, but unlucky if 
you have major bleeding while you’re on it, because it 
might be worse (0.5-2%/year)
Pushes off the edge: 
e.g. surgery 
Risk One 
The closer to the edge you are, 
the less it takes to push you off 
Normal Risk 
1-2 : 1000 
Conceptual 
Model 
Anticoagulation
24 year old man with unprovoked PE. 
No bleeding problems, negative hypercoag testing. 
How long should he take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Indefinite
19 year old woman with DVT while on OCPs for 3 years. 
No bleeding problems, Factor V Leiden positive. 
How long should she take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Indefinite
45 year old man with history of 2 clots, (calf, popliteal), 
each after arthroscopy. No bleeding, negative testing 
How long should he take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Indefinite
60 year old woman with history of PE on tamoxifen for 
metastatic breast cancer. No bleeding, no testing. 
How long should she take anticoagulation? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Indefinite
64 year old man with history of PE after bladder cancer 
surgery 5 months ago. “Too much bleeding” to take 
anticoagulation after surgery, but in your office now. 
How long should he start anticoagulation for his PE? 
If yes, for how long? 
• 3 months 
• 6 months 
• One year 
• Lifelong
The “True” Right Answers? 
Anticoagulation should be given for as long as 
the person feels the risks of having a new 
blood clot are higher or more worrisome than 
the risks/inconveniences of the therapy.

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How Long is Long Enough for Anticoagulation

  • 1. Hypercoagulability and Duration of Anticoagulation: How Long is Long Enough? Kathryn Hassell, MD Professor of Medicine Division of Hematology University of Colorado Denver
  • 2. Disclosures • No financial or other conflicts of interest • Off label use: discussion not planned
  • 3. Objectives • Assist patients with decision-making about duration of anticoagulation by providing information about: – risk of recurrent venous thrombosis – risk of complications of therapy (bleeding) • Decide if hypercoagulabile testing will be useful for a patient
  • 4. 24 year old man with unprovoked PE. No bleeding problems, negative hypercoag testing. How long should he take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Lifelong
  • 5. 19 year old woman with DVT while on OCPs for 3 years. No bleeding problems, Factor V Leiden positive. How long should she take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Lifelong
  • 6. 45 year old man with history of 2 clots, (calf, popliteal), each after arthroscopy. No bleeding, negative testing How long should he take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Lifelong
  • 7. 60 year old woman with history of PE on tamoxifen for metastatic breast cancer. No bleeding, no testing. How long should she take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Lifelong
  • 8. 64 year old man with history of PE after bladder cancer surgery 5 months ago. “Too much bleeding” to take anticoagulation after surgery, but in your office now. How long should he start anticoagulation for his PE? If yes, for how long? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Lifelong
  • 9. Outline of Presentation • Management of current VTE episode – Duration of initial/acute therapy (e.g. LMWH) – Duration of subsequent/chronic therapy • Based on time (e.g. 3 vs. 6 months) • Role of other factors (e.g. residual clot or symptoms) • Impact of hypercoagulable tests • Prevention of subsequent new episodes – Balancing risk for recurrent clot vs. bleeding – Role of factors which may impact estimate of risk • Review major basic principles along the way
  • 10. Principle of Acute Treatment • Anticoagulation given to reduce the risk of new thrombosis – Anticoagulation doesn’t actively change an acute thrombus – endogenous thrombolysis occurs whether or not someone is on anticoagulation – Anticoagulation simply prevents new thrombosis from forming • In areas of recannalization • Extension beyond original
  • 11. Treatment for Acute VTE • Risk of no treatment for acute DVT or PE: – Untreated PE → fatal PE: 26% at 1 year – Untreated proximal DVT → fatal PE: 5% at 10 days, 10% at 30 days – No reduction in mortality with IVC filters Young, Cochrane Database Sys Rev 17:CD006212, 2010 • Judged to be sufficiently high enough to create a standard to treat of all PE/proximal DVT (VTE) unless bleeding is likely to be life-threatening – Guidelines favor treatment of even calf DVT
  • 12. Eighth ACCP 2012 – DVT or PE • Acute Management – Subcutaneous LMWH – Intravenous or subcutaneous UFH – Fondaparinux – Rivaroxaban, Apixaban (FDA approved after the guidelines were developed)
  • 13. Eighth ACCP 2012 – DVT or PE • Other Management Considerations – Initiation of VKA (warfarin) on first day (if using LMWH/heparin/fondaparinux) – Continue LMWH/UFH until INR stable and ≥ 2.0 for at least 24 hours – Treatment with LMWH/UFH for at least 5 days – Switch to dabigatran after 5-10 days of LMWH
  • 14. Initial Management of Thrombosis • Acute intervention: 5 days of active therapy – Active antithrombotic therapy (e.g. heparin/LMWH/new oral agents) – Initiation of long-term maintenance (e.g. warfarin/new oral agents) • Underlying thrombophilia does not impact selection or intensity of anticoagulation – Heparin OK for AT def – Warfarin OK for PC/PS deficiencies Kearon, Current Opin Hematol 19:1, 2012
  • 15. Warfarin-Induced Skin Necrosis • VERY RARE – As likely related to acquired/transient protein C/S deficiency as inherited state – Not a contraindication to initiate warfarin • “Active” anticoagulation (e.g. heparin) protects against the initial further drop in levels with warfarin Crowther, Arch Intern Med 159:46, 1999; Kearon, Current Opin Hematol 19:1, 2012
  • 16. Management of Thrombosis • Different INR intensity for APS? No 104 patients with APS (Finazzi, J Thromb Haemost 3:848, 2005) 2-3 >3 Recurrent thrombosis 5.5% 11.1% All bleeding 14.6% 27.8% Major bleeding 3.6% 5.3% INR 2-3 is current standard 106 patients with APS (Crowther, NEJM 349:1133, 2003) 2-3 3-4 Recurrent thrombosis 3% 10.7% Per pt-yr 1.3% 4.1% Major bleeding 4 (19%) 3 (27%) Anticoagulation stopped 13 21
  • 17. Duration of Treatment For A Given VTE Episode • For DVT/PE, 3 months appears to be the minimum time needed – HR 1.52 (1.14-2.02) if treated only 1-1.5 months vs. 3 months or longer Boutitie, BMJ 342; d3036, 2011 • Up to 40% recurrence if anticoagulation interrupted during the first 3 months – 100-fold increase in peri-operative VTE risk if interruption in the first month Kearon, NEJM 336:1506, 1997
  • 18. Balancing Risks and Benefits • Analysis of rate of fatal events and case fatality rates in the first 3 months on therapy Event Rate of Fatal Event Case Fatality Rate Fatal PE 0.4% (0.3-0.6) 11.3% (8.0-15.2) Fatal bleed 0.2% (0.1-0.3) 11.3% (7.5-15.9) Carrier, Ann Intern Med 152:578. 2010 Schulman, Sem Thromb Hemost 39:141, 2013
  • 19. Principle: 3 Months of Time Not 3 Months of Anticoagulation • Adequacy of anticoagulation doesn’t matter –Leiden Thrombophilia Study (2003) – 234 patients followed for recurrence after stopping their anticoagulation » Treated for 3, 6, or >6 months –No increase in long-term recurrence risk for those who spent more time out of range » No difference in recurrence risk based on duration of therapy, either Gadisseur, J Thromb Hemostas 5:931, 2007
  • 20. Are longer finite periods better? • No evidence to indicate periods longer than 3 months is helpful to reduce risk of recurrence – Meta-analysis of 7 studies comparing 3, 6, 12, and 27 months showed no difference is subsequent recurrence after therapy stopped – Included provoked, unprovoked, DVT and PE – Some authors cite “trend” to increased recurrence after 3 vs. 6 months for unprovoked events: • HR 1.39 (0.96-2.01) Boutitie, BMJ 342; d3036, 2011; de Jong, BJH 158:433, 2012
  • 21. What if the clot isn’t gone? • Anticoagulation does not make the clot go away – Complete residual occlusion can be asymptomatic • DVT doesn’t usually go away: e.g. DACUS Study • After 3 months of therapy: 66.8% had residual vein thrombosis (RVT) >40% of vein diameter • The rest could still have clot, just less Siragusa, Amer J Hematol 86:914, 2011
  • 22. Residual Vein Thrombosis • Conflicting evidence about the role of RVT predicting recurrence (more later) • No evidence staying on anticoagulation will improve resolution of RVT – Sustaining anticoagulation because of RVT doesn’t make it go away, doesn’t change outcomes Prandoni, Ann Intern Med 150:577, 2009
  • 23. What if there’s still symptoms? • May not be related to residual thrombus • Anticoagulation does not change the way the blood flows; the blood is not “thinner” – Factors are still present, they simply lack carboxyl groups (due to warfarin) or are bound by drug when activated (heparin/LMWH/new oral anticoagulants) – Remember, anticoagulation doesn’t promote resolution of thrombosis • The symptoms will not worsen off anticoagulation unless new clot forms
  • 24. Post-Thrombotic Symptoms • Rate of chronic PTS symptoms ~25% de Jong, BJH, 2012 • Use of compression stockings: S.O.X. Trial – Randomized controlled comparison of graded compression stocking to placebo stockings (no significant pressure applied) – Started within a mean of 4 days, used up to 2 years – 80% of subjects used more than 3 days/week – No SAEs related to either stocking • 2% had leg rash/itching Kahn, Lancet 383(9920):880, 2014
  • 25. Post-Thrombotic Symptoms • No difference between stockings in moderate/severe PTS (14-16%), ulceration (3-4%), recurrent VTE Kahn, Lancet 383(9920):880, 2014
  • 26. Principles (But No Data) • Some people choose to sustain anticoagulation hoping for: – Continued recannulization/resorption of clot – Symptom improvement with recannulization and/or collateral formation • Role of anticoagulation: prevent new thrombosis from “undoing” the gains made; NOT active therapy • Duration individualized: continued until desired improvement attained or the “best it’ll be”
  • 27. What if they have a hypercoagulable state? • They HAVE a hypercoagulable state, as demonstrated by their episode of thrombosis – Most people don’t ever clot (1:1000) – Most people don’t clot even when faced with prothrombotic risk factors – Some people who clot with prothrombotic risk factors may not even know they had a clot • Does it matter if we give it a name?
  • 28. An Example: Orthopedic Surgery • Even without anticoagulation, only a subset clot, and fewer have symptoms – those who do are different 0 20 40 60 80 100 Arthroscopy THA TKA Hip Fracture Distal DVT Proximal DVT PE 6th ACCP Conf on Antithrombotic and ThrombolyticTherapy; Chest, 2001
  • 29. Testing for Thrombophilia TEST ABNORMAL RESULT Factor V Leiden (FVL) Present Prothrombin G20210A mutation (PGM) Present Protein C*/Antithrombin activity* Low (<30-40%/<50%) Protein S free antigen* Low (<30-40%) Anticardiolipin antibodies Mod-High Positive 2glyoprotein-1 antibodies Mod-High Positive Lupus anticoagulant (e.g. dRVVT) Present Homocysteine >ULN (12-15) ACQUIRED INHERITED *should not be measured during acute event and/or on anticoagulation
  • 30. Testing for Thrombophilia: Pitfalls • Sensitive activity assays (Protein C/Protein S) – Affected by oral contraceptive use, inflammation, antiphospholipid antibodies – Values of 50-60% of unclear clinical significance • Protein S testing: low values (<40%) expected during pregnancy, may take weeks to months to recover post-partum • Antiphospholipid antibodies may be reactive • Always repeat abnormal values to confirm Favaloro, Sem Thromb Haemost 35:695, 2009
  • 31. Optimal Timing of Testing • No active thrombosis – consumes factors • No anticoagulants – AT low with heparin/LMWH/fondaparinux therapy – PC/PS low with warfarin therapy, dabigatran • If patient unsure about stopping anticoagulation, can do testing on warfarin (except Protein C/S)
  • 32. Negative Thrombophilia Testing • We can detect 7 conditions, but most people with clots don’t have these conditions – Example: RVT study of unprovoked VTE • 1.7% had PC/PS/AT def or LA • 21% had FVL and/or PGM, which have minimal impact on risk of recurrence • “Normal panel” doesn’t change the history of clotting or risk estimate of recurrence Prandoni, Ann Intern Med, 2009
  • 33. Role of Positive Thrombophilia Testing to Predict Recurrence • Modest or no effect from known inherited thrombophilias – FVL: OR=1.39 (1.15-1.67) PGM: OR=1.20 (0.89-1.61) Marchiori, Haematologica 92:1250, 2008 – PC/PS/AT deficiencies: HR=1.8 (0.9-3.7) Christiansen, JAMA 293:2352, 2008 – Exceptions may be antithrombin deficiency, homozygotes for FVL or PGM but limited data • Stronger effect likely with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (OR=4.0 [1.2-13]) for unprovoked VTE Kearon, Clin Chest Med 31:719, 2010
  • 34. Effect of Inherited Thrombophilias on VTE Recurrence • 304 patients with single VTE + family hx Patients On anticoagulation %/year (n=124) Off anticoagulation %/year (n=180) Males Females All 1.1% 9.6% 2.8% PC def 0.6% 10.8% 2.9% PS def 0.6% 10.5% 3.1% AT def 2.7% 11.6% 9.5% FVL 0% 7.2% 2.2% Multiple 0.9% 10.7% 2.1% Vossen, Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol 25:1992; 2005
  • 35. High Risk APS Patients • “High risk” laboratory findings (inconsistent data): – Lupus anticoagulant > other tests – Anticardiolipin IgG/IgM >40 or >99th %ile – β2glycoprotein-1 IgG/IgM >99th %ile • Clinical features which may predict thrombosis – Other thrombotic risk factors (e.g. OCP use) – Co-existent autoimmune disease – Suspected but unproven (retrospective, conflicting data) • ITP, valvular lesions, history of obstetrical complications, livedo rectiularis Barbhaiya and Erkan, Curr Opin Rheum 13:59, 2011
  • 36. Recurrence Risk in APS • Risk factors for thrombosis: – History • previous thrombosis: 5.4% per pt-yr • asymptomatic: 0.95% per pt-yr – ACA level • >40 GPL: 6.12% per pt-yr • <40 GPL: 1.25% per pt-yr – Having SLE/SLE-like disease Finazzi, Am J Med, 100:530, 1996
  • 37. Principles Based on Available Hypercoagulable Testing • Most testing doesn’t matter – negative not useful • What might indicate higher risk or recurrence off anticoagulation? – Male with family history and named condition • Annual risk 5-10%/year – Antithrombin deficiency and family history • Annual risk 9-10%/year – Antiphospholipid antibody syndrome • Annual risk 5-6%/year
  • 38. Principle for Continuing After 3 Months • Role of anticoagulation shifts to prevention of new episodes • Individual’s assessment of relative risks – Risk (fear) of new thrombosis outweighs risk (fear) and inconveniences of therapy
  • 39. Best Predictor of Recurrence: Circumstances Around First Event • Unprovoked events, independent of testing: – 10-15% recurrence in first 2 years after stopping warfarin, then 2-3%/year thereafter Ridker, NEJM 348:1425, 2003 – Cumulative risk at 2-5 years 25%, 10 years 30-40% Donadini, J Thromb Thrombolysis, 31:301, 2011 • Risk of PE (vs. DVT) as the next event – 60-70% if first event was PE – 20% if first event was DVT Agnelli, J Thromb Haemost 25:37, 2008
  • 40. Recurrence Risk on Placebo • 9% at one year after stopping anticoagulation Apixaban (AMPLY-Ext) study of unprovoked VTE Agnelli, NEJM 2013
  • 41. Recurrence Risk on Placebo • 10% recurrence in first year after discontinuation (EINSTEIN-EXT) NEJM 363:2499, 2010
  • 42. Prediction of VTE Recurrence Risk: Unprovoked vs. Provoked • Prandoni, Haematologica 92:199, 2007 Unprovoked: ~20% at 2 years ~50% at 10 years Provoked: ~10% at 2 years ~20% at 10 years
  • 43. Prediction of VTE Recurrence Risk • Risk varies with triggering event: Idiopathic 3.0-10%/year Venous insufficiency 5.5%/year Travel-related Immobilization Infection 3.0-4.2%/year Estrogens Trauma 1.5-4.2%/year Postoperative 0.7%/year Schulman, J Thromb Haemost 4:734, 2006; Iorio, Arch Intern Med 170:1710, 2010
  • 44. Travel-Related Thrombosis • Only with flights (no other modalities) • Background risk – 1.1 events/million person-days overall – 27 clinical VTE/1 million travelers within 14 days – Symptomatic PE “unheard of” in flights <6 hrs – Biggest relative risk in flights >8 hrs (>12 hrs) • OR 3.6 if clinical VTE risk factors – Mostly asymptomatic calf clot by imaging (1-2%) – Risk of PE up to 4/million if >12 hour flight Philbrick, JGIM 22:107. 2007; Kahn, Chest 141 (2)(Suppl):e195, 2012
  • 45. Principle: Lower Risk After Provoked Events • Assumes risk factor was transient – Persistent malignancy associated with 20+% risk of recurrence in first year if anticoagulation stopped de Jong, BJH 158:433, 2012 – Re-use of estrogen-based OCPs after stopping anticoagulation associated with 8-fold risk of recurrence • Transdermal estrogen and progesterone-only NOT associated with increase risk compared to nonusers • Risk of recurrence in non-users: 5% in first year Vaillant-Roussel, Contracception 84:e23, 2011
  • 46. Risk of Venous Thrombosis Increases with Age Overall risk = 1-2 in 1000/year AGE RISK OF THROMBOSIS <1:50,000 50 y.o. 80 y.o. 1:700 1:200 1:25,000 1:2500 Naess, J Thromb Haemost 5:692, 2007; White, Circ 107:1, 2003
  • 47. Am I in the Recurrence Group? • Markers of propensity for recurrence – Elevated factor VIII activity (especially if >200%) • May double the risk of recurrence – Elevation of other factors (IX, XI) may be weak predictors of recurrence • Current areas of interest: – D-dimer – Residual vein thrombosis
  • 48. Role of D-Dimer in Predicting VTE Recurrence • Elevation in D-dimer does not indicate the presence of an acute thrombosis – The only diagnostic value is a negative result which rules out an acute thrombosis Wells, J Thromb Haemost 5 Suppl 1:41, 2007 • However, measurement of D-dimer at least one month off anticoagulation may risk-stratify – Negative D-dimer: 3.5%/year – Positive D-dimer: 8.9%/year Verhovsek, Ann Intern Med 149:481, 2008 • Which kit? What is “positive”? Age adjusted?
  • 49. Role of Residual Vein Thrombosis (RVT) in Predicting VTE Recurrence • Inconsistent association of RVT with increased risk of recurrent VTE – 4 studies suggest increase risk of ~2-fold – 5 studies failed to find an association Kearon, Clin Chest Med 31:719, 2010 • If there is an association, it likely represents a systemic biological - not mechanical - phenomenon – 40-50% of recurrent events are on the opposite leg • Difficult to standardize (definition, technique)
  • 50. Combination of Stratifying Factors • PROLONG: utilization of RVT and/or D-dimer to guide anticoagulation – 619 subjects with first proximal DVT or PE treated with anticoagulation for at least 3 months – D-dimer measured 30 days after discontinuation • Normal D-dimer (n=310): no further anticoagulation • Abnormal D-dimer: randomized – No further anticoagulation (n=99) – Resume anticoagulation for 18 months (n=81) – Residual vein thrombosis assessed (as per previous study e.g. 2 mm in common femoral/popliteal vein) Cosmi, Eur J Endovasc Surg 39:356, 2010
  • 51. Use of Stratifying Factors • Impact on recurrence: – D-dimer if anticoagulation discontinued: • Normal: 10% (5.5/100 pt-yrs) • Abnormal: 19% (12/100 pt-yrs) HR=2.1 – RVT: no difference: 11% with vs. 13% without Cosmi, Eur J Endovasc Surg 39:356, 2010
  • 52. Bottom Line Principle • If there were no clear precipitating factors, the likelihood of recurrence VTE is ~20-25% at 2 years, ~50% at 10 years – Comparable to having APS, AT deficiency, or a male with a family history and some other defined states – Likely similar for people with persistent recognized risk factors (e.g. cancer) • The weaker the “precipitating factor”, the higher the risk of recurrence • D-dimer might discern lower (higher?) risk group
  • 53. Recurrence Risk on Anticoagulation • Risk of recurrence on warfarin therapy – Goal INR 2-3: <1%/year – Goal INR 1.5-2.0: 2-2.5%/year • Risk of recurrence 1-2% over 2 years in studies of extended prophylaxis of new oral anticoagulants • Risk of recurrence on ASA: 5-7%/year – Same as placebo in one study, better in another and in meta-analysis (HR ~0.6) Ridker, NEJM 348:1425, 2003; Kearon, NEJM 349:631, 2003 Agnelli, NEJM 368:699, 2013; Brighton, NEJM 367:1979, 2012 Becattini, NEJM 366:1959, 2012
  • 54. Bleeding Risk of Long-Term Anticoagulation • Major bleeding: 0.9-1.4%/year – Risk increases with age (e.g. lower in young people) – May be slightly lower with new oral agents 0.6-1.0% • Annual long-term fatality estimates Event Rate of Fatal Event Case Fatality Rate Fatal PE 0.49% (0.36-0.64) 9.0% (6.8-11.8) (without tx) Schulman, Semin Thromb Hemost 39:141, 2013 Fatal bleed (with tx) 0.63% (0.61-0.65) 9.1% (2.5-21.7)
  • 55. Principles Regarding Bleeding • Anticoagulation doesn’t cause bleeding – Bleeding occurs when a vessel ruptures – Anticoagulation doesn’t weaken vessels – • Risk of major bleeding, including intracranial, does not correlate with history of falls Donze, Am J Med 125:773, 2012 Outcome Placebo Apixaban 2.5 mg po bid Apixaban 5.0 mg po bid Bleeding 22 (2.7%) 27 (3.5%) 35 (4.3%) Major 4 (0.5%) 2 (0.2%) 1 (0.1%) Agnelli, ASH, 2012
  • 56. Bleeding Prediction Rules • Systematic review and performance analysis – RIETE, HAS-BLED, mOBRI use similar factors • Age (>65-75), renal/liver disease, history of bleeding, anemia, hypertension, use of anti-plt agents, alcohol – Studies often in atrial fibrillation (RIETE in VTE) – None with sufficient predictive power to distinguish risk groups • Low RIETE score may predict a very-low bleeding risk Loewen and Dahri, Amer J Hematol 90:1191, 2011
  • 57. “Clot-ability Scale”: A Conceptual Model 0 100 50 ME PT #1 PREGNANCY PT #2 PREGNANCY LONG-HAUL FLIGHT (?) AGE Everyone has number (inherited/acquired) We just can’t measure it! WARFARIN WARFARIN WARFARIN ANTICOAGULATION Clinical Clotting Clinical Bleeding
  • 58. Duration of Anticoagulation: ACCP 2012 • Minimum: 3 months for DVT or PE – Provoked by transient risk factor = sufficient – Unprovoked: favor “extended” over 3 months • If bleeding risk is moderate or high, favor 3 months over longer, even if 2nd unprovoked event • If “extended”, annual risk assessment of risk/benefit Kearon, Chest 141:e419S, 2012
  • 59. What if they have more than one clot? • No evidence recurrent provoked events are worse than a single provoked event – Risk estimate of recurrence is the likely same • Some data for multiple unprovoked events 30% recurrence 2.5 years of follow-up Adapted from Schulman, Am J Med 104:332, 1998 First unprovoked event, treated for 6 months (n=412) Second unprovoked event 14% 6 months Indefinite 3% recurrence
  • 60. Duration: A Review of Principles • Anticoagulation does not make clot go away or the blood to flow better • The body appears to need 3 months to “stabilize” the situation (time, not days on drug) • No evidence that more than 3 months is better, but could reason that some might need more time to “heal” before potentially have new clots occur • A decision to continue otherwise based on more concern about new clotting than bleeding
  • 61. Deciding on Extended Anticoagulation • Current literature endorses “acceptable risk” of recurrence of up to 5%/1 year or 15%/5 years Kearon, J Thromb Heamost 8:2313, 2012 • Individual should decide what level of risk is OK: – Risk of recurrence clotting based on analysis of the initial clotting event • If unprovoked, risk is 25% at 2 years, 50% at 10 years • Testing usually doesn’t help, D-dimer might – Anticoagulation doesn’t cause bleeding, but unlucky if you have major bleeding while you’re on it, because it might be worse (0.5-2%/year)
  • 62. Pushes off the edge: e.g. surgery Risk One The closer to the edge you are, the less it takes to push you off Normal Risk 1-2 : 1000 Conceptual Model Anticoagulation
  • 63. 24 year old man with unprovoked PE. No bleeding problems, negative hypercoag testing. How long should he take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Indefinite
  • 64. 19 year old woman with DVT while on OCPs for 3 years. No bleeding problems, Factor V Leiden positive. How long should she take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Indefinite
  • 65. 45 year old man with history of 2 clots, (calf, popliteal), each after arthroscopy. No bleeding, negative testing How long should he take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Indefinite
  • 66. 60 year old woman with history of PE on tamoxifen for metastatic breast cancer. No bleeding, no testing. How long should she take anticoagulation? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Indefinite
  • 67. 64 year old man with history of PE after bladder cancer surgery 5 months ago. “Too much bleeding” to take anticoagulation after surgery, but in your office now. How long should he start anticoagulation for his PE? If yes, for how long? • 3 months • 6 months • One year • Lifelong
  • 68. The “True” Right Answers? Anticoagulation should be given for as long as the person feels the risks of having a new blood clot are higher or more worrisome than the risks/inconveniences of the therapy.