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184_presentation_20210606_132102.pptx

  1. 1. Lucas Desport – MINES ParisTech – PSL Centre for Applied Mathematics, France 7th June 2021 The role of carbon capture, utilization and storage in the global energy system: long- term optimization and decarbonation of the industry IAEE 2021 Conference 1 Session 12 on Green Innovation
  2. 2. Summary 1. Context 2. Methodology 1. Discipline: prospective at a glance 2. Tool: the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model 3. Main assumptions 4. Scenarios under discussion 5. Results 6. Conclusion 2
  3. 3. Context – CCUS 3 National Petroleum Council, 2019. Meeting the Dual Challenge - The Role of CCUS in the Future Energy Mix.
  4. 4. Context – CCUS & Industry 4 Leeson et al., 2017. A Techno-economic analysis and systematic review of carbon capture and storage (CCS) applied to the iron and steel, cement, oil refining and pulp and paper industries, as well as other high purity sources. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 61, 71–84. Cement Iron & Steel Chemicals Pulp & Paper Non- ferrous Others Industrial CO2 emissions per sector 8.5 Gt of direct CO2 emitted in 2017 or 23% of global CO2 emissions (IEA)
  5. 5. Context 5 The role of CCUS in the global energy system: long-term optimization and decarbonization of the industry
  6. 6. The prospective discipline 1. This is not forecasting, but the starting point is common: the image of the current energy system 2. Optimal paradigm: minimizing total annual cost or maximizing welfare 3. Investment decisions under several constraints and policies  Assess the possible evolutions of the energy system under climate constraint for policymakers 6 IPCC, 2014. Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change ; Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate change 2014. Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, NY.
  7. 7. The TIAM-FR model: A TIMES model 7 Remme, U., 2001. IEA-ETSAP | Times [WWW Document]. URL https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-tools/model- generators/times (accessed 5.27.21). 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝑟=1 𝑅 𝑡∈𝑇 (1 + 𝑑𝑟,𝑡)𝑡0−𝑡𝐴𝐶𝑟,𝑡 𝐴𝐶𝑟,𝑡 = 𝑐 ∙ 𝑋𝑟,𝑡 min 𝑁𝑃𝑉
  8. 8. 8 TIAM-FR: Regional disaggregation • Exchanges between regions • Base year 2010 • Perfect foresight of agents to 2100
  9. 9. TIAM-FR: Reference Energy System 9 Climate module
  10. 10. Main assumptions – Iron & Steel • Other mitigation strategies implemented than CCUS • Biomass burning • Top gas recycling • Electric arc furnace (EAF) route from scrap smelting • Direct reduction of iron with EAF • Direct reduction of iron (DRI) with H2 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Blast Furnace with capture Blast Furnace with top gas recycling and capture Corex with capture CO2 avoidance cost [$/tCO2] Direct cost, excluding CO2 transport and storage Cost of avoided CO2 in the I&S industry from ETSAP
  11. 11. Main assumptions - Cement • Data reference: European Cement Research Academy (ECRA) and the Usable Energy Database (UED) of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) • Other mitigation strategies implemented • Share of clinker in cement • Biomass burning 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 MEA Post combustion KS-1 Post combustion Partial oxyfuel Full oxyfuel CO2 avoidance cost [$/tCO2] Direct cost, excluding CO2 transport and storage Cost of avoided CO2 in the cement industry
  12. 12. Main assumptions – CO2 utilization • Based on the assumption of Pérez-Fortes et al. and the JRC-EU- TIMES model • On site production of synfuels (no CO2 T&D costs) • E-fuels in output include • Methanol • Diesel • Gasoline 12 CO2 conversion process CO2 Electricity H2 Heat E-fuel Residual CO2 emissions Pérez-Fortes, M., Schöneberger, J.C., Boulamanti, A., Tzimas, E., 2016. Methanol synthesis using captured CO2 as raw material: Techno-economic and environmental assessment. Applied Energy 161, 718–732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.07.067
  13. 13. Main assumptions – CO2 T&S • Storage potentials of 10,142 GtCO2 estimated by Selosse including • Enhanced Oil Recovery • Enhanced Coal Bed Methane • Saline aquifers onshore and offshore • Depleted oil or gas fields onshore and offshore • Aggregated costs of CO2 transport and storage of • 10 $/tCO2 in main scenario • Sensitivity analysis with costs ranging from 20 to 50 $/tCO2 13 Selosse, S., 2019. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage: how carbon storage and biomass resources potentials can impact the development of the BECCS, in: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage. Elsevier, pp. 237–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-816229-3.00012-0
  14. 14. Scenarios 1. In line with Paris Agreement (PA) • 1,5°C temperature elevation by the end of the century • Involves a decarbonation of the world energy system in 2050 2. Industry decarbonation by 80% in 2050 (IND80) • Compared to 2010 levels (IPCC, 2014) • Including direct CO2 and non-GHG emissions as well as process emissions • Excluding indirect emissions 14
  15. 15. Results – The steel industry 15 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Production [in Mt] Global crude steel production routes over the 21st century constrained to PA 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Production [in Mt] Global crude steel production routes over the 21st century constrained to IND80 BF-BOF with CCS Existing assets BF-BOF with biomass DRI with H2 Scrap recycling EAF
  16. 16. Results – The cement industry 16 36% 44% 20% Breakdown of cement standards production (IND80) 42% 38% 20% Breakdown of cement standards production (PA) Portland cement Clinker 73% mixed with steel slags Clinker 70% mixed with fly ashes 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Production [in Mt] Global cement production routes over the 21st century constrained by PA Existing assets Dry kiln with oxycombustion capture
  17. 17. Results – CO2 capture 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Combustion CO2 from industry Combustion CO2 from power sector Negative emissions Process CO2 from industry Amount of CO 2 captured [in Gt] Cumulated CO2 captured IND80 PA
  18. 18. Results – CCU or CCS? 18 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 IND80 PA Amount of CO 2 stored or utilized [in Gt] Fate of captured CO2 Storage Utilization 93% of the CO2 utilized comes from industrial assets
  19. 19. Results – CCU for what? 19 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Synfuels production [in PJ] Global synfuel production over the 21st century constrained by PA Diesel Gasoline Methanol 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Diesel Gasoline Methanol Production share Bio-based production CO2 utilization Coal-based production Gas-based production Refinery
  20. 20. Results – Sensitivity analysis 20 18.055 18.060 18.065 18.070 18.075 18.080 18.085 18.090 18.095 18.100 18.105 10 20 30 40 50 Cumulated amount of CO 2 [in Gt] Cost of CO2 T&S [in $/t] Impact on T&S costs on the amount of CO2 utilized
  21. 21. Conclusion 21 1. CCS faces strong competition from hydrogen in the steel industry due to partial CO2 capture. 2. CCS is essential in cement plants but can also benefit from less clinker-intensive cement production. 3. The CCU route has a minor future compared to the CCS but can significantly help in producing clean fuels. 4. An 80% decarbonization of industry does not necessarily implies more CO2 capture units but rather more expensive clean production routes. 5. An 80% decarbonization policy is not necessarily desirable, (nor feasible): the total annual cost of IND80 is twice higher than PA.
  22. 22. Thank you for your attention. Do you have questions? 22

Editor's Notes

  • Process CO2 emissions
  • CCUS: the technology (already mentioned)
    Global energy system: the tool
    Long-term optimization refers to the future and the prospective discipline
    Industry: the targeted sector of the energy system (mentioned)
  • The image is composed of the shares of production, the installed capacities, the primary energy consumption, the demand for goods and energy services, for each country of the world
    Optimal paradigm for the future: the prospective disciplines generally proposes that society adopts a rational lifestyle that is minimizing the cost of energy supply, which is not necesseray the case of the base year. The purpose is to advocate on how to transform the energy system as cheap as possible
    The model chooses the stop current capacities and replace it by new cleaner capacities
  • The TIMES model generator combines two different systematic approaches to modelling energy: a technical engineering approach and an economic approach. TIMES is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator describing energy and material flows from the extraction of primary resources to the supply of the demand. TIMES model perform a partial equilibrium, meaning that they only represent the energy sector of the economy so do not consider interaction with other models and the feedbacks that the consumers can return to the producers (e.g. demands, prices). The objective function is to minimize the NPV
  • Let’s get some height!
  • Capture from IEAGHG
  • Capture from IEAGHG
  • Capture from IEAGHG
  • The huge expansion of cement production is due to China’s, India’s and Africa’s appetite exploding in the following decades in GDP and population.
  • Because the cheapest CO2 that is captured comes from oxyfuel combustion in cement plants

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