Provide an overview of urban resilience

1. SENSITIZATION MEETING WITH
KISUMU COUNTY COs,
DIRECTORS, AND TECHNICAL
TEAM
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
SELECTED CITIES IN KENYA (NAIROBI, MOMBASA, KISUMU, NAKURU AND ELDORET)
Contract No.: KE-MOTI-157745-CS-QCBS
Prepared: Dr. OYUGI CMG ONYANGO
Presented: Dr. EMMANUEL MIDHEME

2. PROJECT BACKGROUND
This Project entails the development of urban resilience strategies
for 5 cities in Kenya – Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru and
Eldoret, as a pilot.
The client is the State Department of Housing and Urban
Development in the Ministry Transport, Infrastructure, Housing,
Urban Development and Public Works.
As part of the government’s efforts to enhance city management,
Urban Resilience Strategies are being developed in the pilot cities
with the potential of scaling up in other urban areas in the country.
Undertaken under the World Bank-funded ‘Kenya Urban Support
Program (KUSP)’, which aims to establish effective and empowered
urban planning and management systems that deliver infrastructure
and support services, including the mainstreaming of urban safety

3. PROJECT RATIONALE
Kenya is projected to have an urban population of about 23.6
million people (about 54%) by the year 2030, an increase from 28%
in 2020.
Rapid urbanization presents a myriad of development
opportunities and challenges if not well planned  the urban
paradox!
Challenges: traffic snarl-ups, informal settlements, urban sprawl
and climate change impacts (flash floods, increased temperatures,
and heatwaves, etc.).
These challenges have negative impacts on social development,
especially on the urban poor and vulnerable communities.
The purpose of the project is to develop urban resilience strategies

4. Kenyan urban population being 27% of total population, we are at an
early stage of urbanization.
At the current urbanization rate of 4.3% a year, about half of the
population will be living in cities by 2050 (The World Bank, 2016).
This anticipated growth will mainly take place not in new cities but as
constant additions to existing urban areas, placing more pressure on city
authorities.
This has made rapid urbanization be highlighted in the Kenya Vision
2030, as one of the challenges facing the country; hence making
sustainable management of urban development a national priority.

5. Most urban growth is unplanned, incremental and informal but with
growing concentration of assets; thus increased exposure and
vulnerability to disaster, with significant adverse impacts, especially on
the urban poor.
Kenya is vulnerable to both natural and man-made hazards with an
estimated 3 to 4 million people affected annually (The World Bank,
2012).
Notwithstanding very real resource constraints, Kenyan cities are yet to
mainstream resilience in urban development plans, policies, and
regulations.
This calls for the development and faithful implementation of planning
instruments, such as urban resilience strategies to aid Kenyan cities in
becoming more resilient to natural and man-made disaster risks,
including effects of climate change as well as the ever-growing chronic

6. CONCEPT AND MEANING OF URBAN RESILIENCE
Urban resilience has been an emerging concept for the last one
decade.
The term is widely accepted and used but with no consensus on its
meaning and implications for policy and governance.
From the literature, urban resilience has been portrayed as a dynamic
process that benefits from an interdisciplinary perspective and multi-
stakeholder partnerships.
Policymakers, professional practitioners, and researchers have
embraced the notion of resilience to enhance their communities’
ability to bounce back, adapt, and continue to function in the face of
disasters.

7. SOME DEFINITIONS
World Bank (2014): The ability of a city system, entity, community, or
persons to adapt to a variety of changing conditions and to withstand
shocks while still maintaining their essential functions.
Rockefeller (2014): The capacity of individuals, communities,
institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt,
and grow no matter what chronic stress or acute shock they
experience.
UN-Habitat (2018): The ability of any urban system to maintain
continuity through all shocks and stresses while positively adapting
and transforming toward sustainability.

8. A resilient city, therefore, assesses, plans, and acts to prepare for and
respond to all hazards, either sudden or slow-onset, expected or
unexpected.
By doing so, cities are better able to protect and enhance people’s lives
and livelihoods, secure development gains, foster an investible
environment and drive positive change.
All these definitions appear to emphasize the need for cities/urban
areas to continue functioning in the event of either stresses, shocks,
disasters, or risks.
 Is Kisumu City capable of doing so?

9. Resilience is being discussed in the international development arena
because the pace of urbanization has caught many cities, particularly in
DCs relatively unprepared.
While cities should be centres of economic growth, opportunity, and
innovation, city residents endure the most social and economic risks,
environmental impacts, and political uncertainties.
The demand for land, decent shelter, transport, employment, energy,
and social and environmental services have outstripped supply in many
urban areas, which exacerbate the city’s vulnerability to external threats.
Many cities are unprepared to handle economic and societal changes
including modest disruption in food, water, and energy supplies, with
climate change serving as an amplifier of these challenges.
WHY URBAN RESILIENCE?

10. KEY RESILIENCE ISSUES IN THE FIVE CITIES
Uncontrolled urban development, unemployment, proliferation of informal
settlements, frequent fire outbreaks, flooding, congested/inefficient
transport systems, institutional capacity challenges and shocks and stresses
wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The socio-economic, political, and environmental characteristics of the
cities are critical factors of vulnerability, which act as triggers for disasters,
together with the associated natural hazards.
Diverse ethnicity, social class, education levels, age, and wealth, all create
tensions and violence, particularly during elections. Need to create a
collective identity and culture that foster collective ability to enhance the
environment in which people live, work and recreate.
Urban resilience strategies should address urban environmental risks, land
security, slums and informal settlements, urban mobility, and strengthen
institutional organizational capacities.

11. S/No Framework Resilience
Categories
Goals Indicators/
Targets
Variables/ priority
areas for action
Resilience
Qualities
1. The Rockefeller
and Arup (2014)
4 categories 12 goals 52 Indicators 156 7 Resilience
Qualities
2. UN Habitat
(2018)
framework
5 categories - - - -
3. Sendai
Framework for
Disaster Risk
Reduction (2015)
and Disaster
Resilience
Scorecard for
Cities by IBM
and AECOM;
UNISDR 2017.
1 category 1 goal 4 priorities for
action
7 targets &
10 essentials for
making cities
resilient
URBAN RESILIENCE FRAMEWORKS

12. SUMMARY OF PILLARS, GOALS, AND INDICATORS (adapted)
PILLARS GOALS INDICATORS
Health and Well
being
Minimal human vulnerability  Safe and affordable housing
 Adequate energy supply
 Inclusive access to safe drinking water
 Effective sanitation
 Sufficient food supply
Diverse livelihood and
employment
 Inclusive labour policies
 Relevant skills and training
 Dynamic local business development and
innovation
 Supportive financing mechanisms
 Diverse protection of livelihoods following a
shock.
Effective safeguard to human
health and life
 Robust public health systems
 Adequate access to quality healthcare
 Emergency medical resources
 Effective emergency response services

13. Economy and Society Sustainable Economy  Well-managed public finances
 Comprehensive business continuity
planning
 Diverse economic base
 Attractive business environment
 Strong integration with regional and
global economies
Comprehensive Security and Rule
Law
 Effective systems to deter crime
 Proactive corruption prevention
 Competent policing
 Accessible criminal and civil justice
Collective identity and community
support
 Local community support
 Cohesive communities
 Strong identity and culture
 Actively engaged

14. Infrastructure and
Ecosystem
Reliable mobility and
communication
 Diverse and affordable transport
networks
 Effective transport operation
maintenance
 Reliable communications
technology
 Secure technology networks
Reduced exposure to fragility  Comprehensive hazard and
exposure mapping
 Appropriate codes, standards,
and enforcement
 Effectively managed protective
ecosystems
 Robust protective infrastructure
Effective provision of critical  Effective stewardship of
ecosystems
 Flexible infrastructure
 Retained spare capacity
 Diligent maintenance and
continuity
 Adequate continuity for critical
assets and services

15. Leadership and Strategy Effective leadership and
management
 Appropriate government decision-
making;
 Co-ordination with other
government bodies;
 Multi-stakeholder collaboration;
 Hazard monitoring and risk
assessment;
 Government emergency
management.
Empowered stakeholders  Education for all;
 Community awareness and
preparedness;
 Mechanisms for communities to
engage with government.
Integrated planning and
development
 City monitoring and data
management;
 Planning process;
 Land use and zoning;
 Planning approval process.

16. PROCEDURES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
URBAN RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
This is undertaken in a step-by-step approach in four phases: -
Preparatory
Data Collection and Organization
Data Analysis and Prioritization
Finalization of Urban Resilience Strategies

17. PHASE 1: PREPARATORY
Objective: Sensitization and training of the city management, staff, county
technical committees, and local stakeholders is key to making them fully
informed and committed to the process.
Activities in this phase
• Initial meeting with key city leaders
• Identification of City Focal Points (Resilience Champions)
• Preliminary stakeholder mapping – national, county and local
• Training of the City/County Management, City/County staff, and local
stakeholders
• Preparation for data collection at the city and community levels

18. PHASE 2: DATA COLLECTION AND ORGANISATION
Objective: Collect and organize the necessary data and information on:
- The status of the city’s resilience as per the adopted resilience
framework
- The priorities of stakeholders for strengthening the resilience of
city and neighborhoods.
The methodology for gathering data is a two-step approach: -
Implementing a checklist to collect quantitative data and a
questionnaire to collect qualitative data so as to develop city
diagnostics of resilience status based on the adopted Resilience
Framework.
Collecting other relevant data, including participatory planning
sessions at the stakeholder’s level to develop a results matrix that will

19. PHASE 3: DATA ANALYSIS AND PRIORITISATION
Objective: Analyze and discuss data collected in the previous phase.
Identify priority issues and agree on priority areas to be addressed that
act as entry points to progressively build the city’s resilience.
Results:
The results are summarized in presentations to be delivered at the
prioritization workshop.
A number of priority issues for building urban resilience are selected
during the prioritization workshop.
City Focal Points are further trained to carry out the next phase
which finalization of the Urban Resilience Strategy is developed based
on the selected priority issues.

20. Data Analysis Summary
Data Analysis Output Utility
Qualitative resilience measures Average score per indicator Resilience ranking of indicators Identified resilience issues
Comments raised in the
measurement of resilience
issues
Thematic mapping Cross-cutting issues Identified resilience issues
City Systems performance data  Comparison with
benchmarks
 Correlation analysis
Cross-cutting issues Quantified resilience issues
Focus group discussion data Thematic mapping and
prioritization
List of city risks Priority issues
Vulnerability Risk map Meta-analysis (Proximity and
Neighbourhood analysis)
 Accessibility index
 Hotspots maps (heat maps)
Predicted resilience issues
Vulnerability Risk map Network analysis Level of services Predicted resilience issues
Vulnerability Risk map Overlay analysis Hazard risk map Predicted resilience issues
 Historical risk occurrence
 Economic performance
 Population data
 Climate data
 Trend analysis
 Scenario building
 Demand analysis
Scenarios
Future demand for services
Predicted resilience issues
Financial data Ratio analysis
Trend analysis
Financial resilience Funding possibility
Capacity data  Skills and competency
audits
 Systems and capacity audits
Capacity gaps Built resilience of institutions
and governance systems
Simulation data Scenario building Understanding of risks, Address uncertainties and

21. PHASE 4: DECISION MAKING AND FINALIZATION OF URBAN RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES
Objectives:
 Develop the draft Urban Resilience Strategy based on resilience
measurement, the city diagnostics reports, and the analysis of
supplementary data collected.
 Prepare a final version by integrating the feedback received during a
strategy formulation workshop, which is then validated by the relevant
authorities.
 Translate the findings into specific actions that will help cities address the
identified shortcomings and performance gaps.
 Provide evidence-based plans specifying time-bound actions against
performance targets to improve the city's resilience in the:
o short-term (priority actions to be implemented through concrete activities),

22. 
This is the journey we hope to walk.
Shall we all walk together?