Ari Betof, Co-Founder and Partner, Mission & Data Session 2 Planning for the next academic year feels fraught with uncertainty at a time when schools are usually feeling confident in their year-end projections and already voting on budgets. In this two-part series, gain important perspectives about the virus, the economy, and independent school industry considerations to help with planning for next year. The second session dove more deeply into what independent school leaders and board members may want to consider as they chart their course, including: -How to approach the budget cycle with Ari Betof from Mission & Data -Trends and projections that the data are telling us with Lisa Pullman from INDEX -Enrollment management and admissions in a turbulent environment with Peter Baron from EMA -Legal and business cycle considerations with Debra Wilson from SAIS -Industry-wide perspective and planning thoughts with John Gulla from EE Ford

1. Buckle Your Seatbelts!
Navigating the Path to 2021-22
Moderator:
● Debra Wilson, President, SAIS
December 3, 2020
A collaborative effort of
26 independent school
member organizations
Panelists:
● Peter Barron, Chief Member Relations Officer, EMA
● Ari Betof, Co-Founder and Partner, Mission & Data
● John Gulla, Executive Director, E.E. Ford Foundation
● Lisa Pullman, Executive Director, INDEX

2. Approaching the FY21-22
Budget Cycle
Ari Betof, Ed.D.
Co-Founder & Partner
@AriBetof

3. More unknowns,
variability,
and pressure… oh my!

4. Budget Process & Timeline
June
Change
April
We
Jan
Do
Dec
What
...and stay the same

5. Viability
Must Focus on Survival
in the Next 12-24 Months
Sustainability
Viability in Next 10+ Years Not
in Question
Stability
Spectrum of Financial & Organizational Health

6. Leaders and trustees want to make
mission-driven, data-informed
decisions...
...but we need to begin with
shared understanding
Using:
● Scenario planning
● Sensitivity analysis
● Simulations and stress tests...

7. Shared Understanding
About What Is…
● Core
● Controllable
● Minimally Viable

8. Leveraging Organizational Capacity
Adaptive
Capacity
Institutional
Capacity
Programmatic
Capacity

9. Stewardship of What Is Core &
Leveraging Organizational Capacity
Adaptive
Capacity
Institutional
Capacity
Programmatic
Capacity
Core = Immovable + Essential

10. Shared Understanding of
Revenue & Expense Drivers
▹ Big levers and small levers
▹ Clarifying areas of control vs. influence
▹ Timing
▹ 2nd and 3rd order implications

11. Minimally Viable Criteria
Situation: School has faced several years deficits
From a universe of possibilities,
the board decides it will only consider plans
that meet a set of minimally viable criteria
Agreement about framework in four broad areas:
● Stewardship of what is core (immovable and essential)
Three phases:
● FY21-22 + current year if viability concerns
● Transition years to financial and org sustainability
● “Healthy and thriving” for years beyond
What if no plan
exists that meets
these criteria?!?!?!

12. The Seduction of
False Optimism

13. Reality &
Perception

15. 5 Tangible
Takeaways

16. #1 Paradigm for Tuition Setting

17. #2
“One-Year”
COVID Emergency
Financial Aid

18. #3 Total Compensation
▫ Recognize extraordinary effort (if possible)
▫ Morale is crucial
▫ Compounding is a reality
▫ If forced to choose, build up rather than cut back

19. #4
When facing a structural
budget deficit*
* Without a money tree
org
effectiveness
org
transformation
merger acquisition closure

20. #5
“Test as
you fly,
fly as
you test”
Ozan Varol,
Think Like a
Rocket Scientist Sensitivity
analysis
Scenario planning
Stress tests
Simulations
Tabletop exercises
Visualization

21. Ari M. Betof, Ed.D.
Co-Founder & Partner
Mission & Data
@AriBetof
abetof@missionanddata.com21