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Evaluation of Prototypes and the
Problem of Possible Futures
Antti Salovaara, University of Helsinki
Antti Oulasvirta, Aalto University
Giulio Jacucci, University of Helsinki
UNIVERSITY
OF HELSINKI
AALTO
UNIVERSITY
Evaluations are about what
the prototype might become.
Picture from p. 518 in Abowd (1999) Classroom 2000: An
Experiment with the Instrumentation of a Living Educational
Environment. IBM Systems Journal 38(4), 508–530.
Classroom of the future at Georgia Tech
Benefit of note-taking support
1997
Wireless handheld devices
2008
“Please Keep Your Laptops in an Upright and Unlocked Position” by Alan Levine.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/cogdog/2871019373/ . CC0 1.0 Universal
Social media
Distracted attention
The future as it became
Study context (1997) Actual context (future)
Automated capture of
learning material
Wireless note sharingUpload after
lecture
Social
media
Overhead
projectors
Present–
future
gap
Study context Actual context
Design brief,
Requirement
specification
New way of
work
New
software
Functional
prototype
The old
way of
work
Usability evaluation
Present–
future
gap
A carelessly designed evaluation may
inadvertently evaluate wrong futures,
contexts, or user groups,
thereby leading to false conclusions and
expensive design failures.
Evaluation as a “time machine”
Envisioning
Concretisation
Projection
The non-issue of the present–future gap
Scenario-building, co-design, PD
Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach
Experimental method
Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach
Ethnographic methods, participant observation
Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach
Engineering and programming
Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach
Field trials, Usability evaluations
Envisioning
Concretisation
Projection
✔
Every methodological choice changes
the enacted future
Concretisation
CONTROL Removal of present-day features
STAGING
Creation
of
futuristic
features
Wireless
note sharing
Overhead
projectors
Every methodological choice changes
the enacted future
CONTROL
TECHNIQUES
Narrowing
Stabilising
Removal
Inhibition
Gamification
STAGING
TECHNIQUES
Propping
Setting selection
Feature promotion
Repetition
Recruiting
INHIBITION in an urban navigation study
concretization
Free
walking
Embedding information in
urban environment for AR
Limit use of AR to a
small area
PROPPING in an in-the-wild AR study
concretization
Hi-fi prototype
Human
actors
Embedding information in
urban environment for AR
GAMIFICATION in an AR experiment
concretization
Excitement helps users
forget their hesitation
Envisioning
Concretisation
Projection
Projective validity
From imperfect
data…
…to a valid
conclusion
inferential
leap
Internal validity
Construct validity
Conclusion validity
External validity
Projective validity
Near future Far future
Precise range of
futures
Singular
futures
Margin of tolerance
New mindset for evaluations
1.  Evaluate with the future in mind
2.  Consider the future-contingency of every
methodological choice
3.  Consider how evaluation must be
controlled & staged
4.  Report methodological choices
transparently
5.  Define the margins for projective validity
Thank you!
Acknowledgments:
Academy of Finland (259281 and 298879), European Research Council (637991)
David McGookin, Barry Brown, Duncan Brumby, Kasper Hornbæk, Mika
Jokiniemi, Stuart Reeves, Baris Serim, John Zimmerman
Evaluations are about what the
prototype might become.

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Evaluation of Prototypes and the Problem of Possible Futures

  • 1. Evaluation of Prototypes and the Problem of Possible Futures Antti Salovaara, University of Helsinki Antti Oulasvirta, Aalto University Giulio Jacucci, University of Helsinki UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI AALTO UNIVERSITY
  • 2. Evaluations are about what the prototype might become.
  • 3. Picture from p. 518 in Abowd (1999) Classroom 2000: An Experiment with the Instrumentation of a Living Educational Environment. IBM Systems Journal 38(4), 508–530. Classroom of the future at Georgia Tech Benefit of note-taking support 1997 Wireless handheld devices
  • 4. 2008 “Please Keep Your Laptops in an Upright and Unlocked Position” by Alan Levine. https://www.flickr.com/photos/cogdog/2871019373/ . CC0 1.0 Universal Social media Distracted attention The future as it became
  • 5. Study context (1997) Actual context (future) Automated capture of learning material Wireless note sharingUpload after lecture Social media Overhead projectors Present– future gap
  • 6. Study context Actual context Design brief, Requirement specification New way of work New software Functional prototype The old way of work Usability evaluation Present– future gap
  • 7. A carelessly designed evaluation may inadvertently evaluate wrong futures, contexts, or user groups, thereby leading to false conclusions and expensive design failures.
  • 8. Evaluation as a “time machine” Envisioning Concretisation Projection
  • 9. The non-issue of the present–future gap Scenario-building, co-design, PD Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach Experimental method Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach Ethnographic methods, participant observation Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach Engineering and programming Future orientation, artifacts, empirical approach Field trials, Usability evaluations
  • 11. Every methodological choice changes the enacted future Concretisation
  • 12. CONTROL Removal of present-day features STAGING Creation of futuristic features Wireless note sharing Overhead projectors Every methodological choice changes the enacted future
  • 14. INHIBITION in an urban navigation study concretization Free walking Embedding information in urban environment for AR Limit use of AR to a small area
  • 15. PROPPING in an in-the-wild AR study concretization Hi-fi prototype Human actors Embedding information in urban environment for AR
  • 16. GAMIFICATION in an AR experiment concretization Excitement helps users forget their hesitation
  • 18. Projective validity From imperfect data… …to a valid conclusion inferential leap Internal validity Construct validity Conclusion validity External validity Projective validity
  • 19. Near future Far future Precise range of futures Singular futures Margin of tolerance
  • 20. New mindset for evaluations 1.  Evaluate with the future in mind 2.  Consider the future-contingency of every methodological choice 3.  Consider how evaluation must be controlled & staged 4.  Report methodological choices transparently 5.  Define the margins for projective validity
  • 21. Thank you! Acknowledgments: Academy of Finland (259281 and 298879), European Research Council (637991) David McGookin, Barry Brown, Duncan Brumby, Kasper Hornbæk, Mika Jokiniemi, Stuart Reeves, Baris Serim, John Zimmerman Evaluations are about what the prototype might become.