2. Baseball’s YouthBaseball’s Youth
MovementMovement
Despite the fact that
nearly every team in the
big leagues was engaged
in a “youth movement,”
virtually no one noted that
the both leagues had
grown noticeably younger
during the 1960s. In fact,
by 1970, 22 of the 24
teams were younger than
the league’s average age
in 1959.
The Sporting News, Nov. 5, 1966
Baseball Digest, Feb. 1975
Baseball Digest, July 1968
3. Demographics and BaseballDemographics and Baseball
Long range demographic changes in the U.S. population dramatically
affected the way that baseball was played in the 1960s.
4. The “Baby Bust” and the “Baby Boom”The “Baby Bust” and the “Baby Boom”
Total US Births
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
LiveBirths
Changes in the nation’s fertility rate, the Great Depression and the Second
World War formed an 18-year crater in the nation’s total number of live births.
Beginning in 1947, however, the U.S. began a nearly 20-year period of abnormally
high birth rate and total number of births.
5. Average Number of Plate Appearance by Year of BirthAverage Number of Plate Appearance by Year of Birth
PAs by Birth Year
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
Players born before the Great Depression could only anticipate a career of about 9000
plate appearances. In contrast players born toward the end of the Baby Boom would
enjoy careers that averaged nearly twice as long.
6. Average Career Length in Years by Year of BirthAverage Career Length in Years by Year of Birth
Due to expansion and other factors, a higher average number of plate appearances didDue to expansion and other factors, a higher average number of plate appearances did
not equate to a greater career length. Players born between 1940 and 1964 enjoyed thenot equate to a greater career length. Players born between 1940 and 1964 enjoyed the
longest average career lengths for all players born between 1920 and 1970.longest average career lengths for all players born between 1920 and 1970.
Avg Career Length by Birth Year
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
#Yrs
7. Rushed to the Majors?Rushed to the Majors?
Players born between 1933 and 1958 made their major league debuts at a younger age
than any other cohort in major league history. Particularly notable are the players born
from 1938–1953 who, as a group, debuted nearly a year and half sooner than their
counterparts who were born in 1920 or in 1970.
Average Age at MLB Debut
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
Birth Year
DebutAge
8. Average Age, MLB players (weighted by PA/BFP)Average Age, MLB players (weighted by PA/BFP)
The average age of all major league players dropped from almost 30 years old in 1946
to a 1970 low of just over 27 years before climbing back to over 29 years old in the
1980s.
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
9. While the whole league grew younger from the mid-1950s to the late-1970s,
young pitchers led the charge.
Age by Role
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
1946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985
AvgAge
Batters Pitchers
The Era of the Young PitcherThe Era of the Young Pitcher
10. In 1969, 80% of the league was age-30 or younger.
% of MLB Players byAge
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Major League Baseball’s Changing DemographicsMajor League Baseball’s Changing Demographics
11. Major League Baseball’s Changing DemographicsMajor League Baseball’s Changing Demographics
%of MLB Players by Age Group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
under 20 Age 20-22 Age 22-25 Age 26-29 Age 30-33 Age 34-37 over 37
In every year from 1964-1978 (except 1973), over 70% of
major league baseball players were younger than 30 years old.
12. %of PA/BFP by Age Group
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20
% of PA/BFP byAge Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20
Did Young’uns Skew the League’s Average Age?Did Young’uns Skew the League’s Average Age?
Whatever caused the drop in average league age, only a very small part of it was due to an
influx of very young players. Further, there seems to be no trend toward very young players,
as most of the playing time by young players can be attributed to the Bonus Baby rules of
1954-1964. Most of the rest of the “blips” are outliers caused by the rise of a very young
superstar (Kaline in ‘54, Dierker in ’65-’66, Yount in ’74-’75, Gooden in ‘84)
13. % of PA/BFP byAge Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20 20-22
Growing Influence of College-Age PlayersGrowing Influence of College-Age Players
The increasing share of playing time given to 20-22 year old players represents a
important factor in the baseball’s turn youth movement.
14. % of PA/BFP byAge Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20 20-22 23-25
The Dominance of “Pre-peak” Players.The Dominance of “Pre-peak” Players.
The most important factor in the major league’s trend toward youthfulness was the new-
found trust that ball clubs put in their pre-peak players.
15. % of PA/BFP byAge Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29
The Consistency of Peak Age PlayersThe Consistency of Peak Age Players
For nearly the whole of the 50-year period from 1946-1985, peak-age players
contributed 35% to 40% of all playing time.
16. % of PA/BFP byAge Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29 30-33
““Don’t Trust Anyone Over 30”Don’t Trust Anyone Over 30”
Once considered to be in the prime of their careers,
players between the ages of 30-33 saw their share of playing time decrease from about
30% before 1950 to just 20% from the early-1960s to the late-1970s.
17. % of PA/BFP byAge Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29 30-33 34-37
The Decline and Rise of the Declining PlayersThe Decline and Rise of the Declining Players
A meaningful contributor of plate appearances (~10%) before 1960,
players aged 34-37 would have to wait twenty year to see their share restored.
The nadir of their importance, from 1968 to 1971, coincides exactly with
the low-water mark in total U.S. births.
18. %of PA/BFP by Age Group
-0.01
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Year
%
under 20 34-37 over 37
%of PA/BFP by Age Group
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
Year
%
under 20 20-22 23-25 26-29 30-33 34-37 over 37
Ironies of Baseball’s Elderly from 1960-185Ironies of Baseball’s Elderly from 1960-185
The expansion of 1961-1962 gave new life to a generation of middle-aged ball players,
but it did nothing for baseball’s elderly. Ironically, it was those players that most
benefited from baseball’s turn toward youth in the 1960s that also
benefited from its desire to hold onto the past in the 1980s.
19. Young Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersYoung Players, Prime Players and Old Players
PAs/BFP by Major Age Group
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
%
under 26 26-29 over 30
Breaking the graph into three parts helps bring clarity the
youth phenomenon in the 1960s.
20. Young Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersYoung Players, Prime Players and Old Players
While a larger share of playing time went to younger hitters from 1961 to 1979, the
annual share of young players was erratic. After 1980 older hitters reaped the lion share
of plate appearances in baseball.
PA by Major Age Group
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
%
under 26 26-29 over 30
21. Young Players, Prime Players and Old PlayersYoung Players, Prime Players and Old Players
In contrast to their bat-wielding counterparts, young pitchers shared playing time equally
with pitchers in their prime for nearly twenty years after 1961 before retreating to
historical norms after 1980.
BFP by Major Age Group
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
%
under 26 26-29 over 30
22. Average Age of A-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Age of A-ball Players, 1946-1985
Average Batters Age (A)
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
AvgAge
Average Pitchers Age (A)
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
AvgAge
CAL CAR FSL MWL SAL WCL
23. Average Age of AA-ball Players, 1946-1985Average Age of AA-ball Players, 1946-1985
Average Batters Age (AA)
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
AvgAge
Average Pitchers Age (AA)
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
19
62
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
AvgAge
EAS SOU TEX
26. In part, to fill the void left by decreasing numbers of American-born boys, Latinos
became a significant percentage of MLB population in the 1960s.
The Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960sThe Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960s
Percentage of Latino PA/BFP by Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
%
Overall %PA/BFP
Includes all players born in Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Panama and the Virgin Islands.
27. The percentage of Latinos in MLB did not increase uniformly, however. Batters
played a much more significant role than pitchers.
The Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960sThe Growing Influence of Latinos in the 1960s
Percentage of Latino PA/BFP by Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
%
Overall % PA/BFP % PAs by Batters % BFP by Pitchers
Includes all players born in Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Panama and the Virgin Islands.
28. Avg. Age of Hitters and Pitchers andAvg. Age of Hitters and Pitchers and
Total Births Ratio of Peak PlayersTotal Births Ratio of Peak Players
Age by Role
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
1
94
61
94
71
94
81
94
91
95
01
95
11
95
21
95
31
95
41
95
51
95
61
95
71
95
81
95
91
96
01
96
11
96
21
96
31
96
41
96
51
96
61
96
71
96
81
96
91
97
01
97
11
97
21
97
31
97
41
97
51
97
61
97
71
97
81
97
91
98
01
98
11
98
21
98
31
98
41
98
5
AvgAge
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Births / PA Ratio
Batters Pitchers Male Births / PA Ratio
By looking at the birth year of each season’s peak players (age 26-29),
one can discern an interesting correlation between the total number of births
and the age of the major leagues a generation later.
29. Baby Bust, Baby Boom and Level of CompetitionBaby Bust, Baby Boom and Level of Competition
The old timers were right! Factoring in the number players born in each year and the
total number of plate appearances needed to fill the major leagues, the level of
competition was at its lowest level from 1933 to 1946. Players born before 1929 and
from 1951 to 1965 had to compete with more American players for their jobs.
Birth Year Pressure
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
