INDIA TAKING EARLY MOVER ADVANTAGE DUE TO US-CHINA TRADE WAR

1. INDIA’S has shipped its first consignment of grapes to China
to mark the beginning of 2019 season. India exports around 190,000
tons of grapes worth $300 million. China has been a regular buyer of
grapes and china produces none.
CHINA has imported 827 tons from India worth $1.3 million a decline of
45.9% from earlier year. But due to U.S.-CHINA trade war , India has an
opportunity because of 25% import duties levied by Chinese
government on the import of fruits from AMERICA.
Looking at the April export figures of INDIA ,the growth of grapes
production and kharif crops slows down due to bad monsoon and low
rainfall but due to come back in monsoon , the production has been
increased.
AUSTRALIA is another potential market for INDIA who consumes more
grapes to produce better quality of wine . Maharashtra is the major
grower of grapes. The shipment from Jawaharlal Nehru port trust in
state to Australia takes more than twice time needed for merchandise
to reach china.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK

2. Cotton growth expected to be lower than estimates. Cotton association of India ,
the apex trade body has a month before estimated 34 million bales which is
owner than expectation from2017-18 i.e. 36.5 millon bales ( 170 kg per bale).
However total arrival this season has been only 11.5 million bales as compared to
16 million bales last year .
(IN ;000 TONNES)
SUPPLY 2017-18 2018-19
OPENING STOCK 612 391
CROP 6205 5784.3
IMPORTS 255 459
TOTAL SUPPLY(A) 7072 6634.3
MILL CONSUMPTION 4760 4760
CONSUMPTION BY SSI UNITS 493 493
NON MILL CONSUMPTION 255 255
TOTAL DOMESTIC DEMAND(B) 550 5508
AVAIALBLE SURPLUS(A-B) 1564 1126.3
EXPORTS 1173 901
CLOSING STOCK 391 225.3
The ongoing trade war between U.S.-CHINA has brought the global economy on
the verge of another melt down. Moreover arrivals of cotton n the market slows
down as farmers begun to hold back their produce anticipating better prices. The
reason behind slow crop production and increase in imports is due to bad
monsoon through which kharif crops production slows down.
BALANCE SHEET