Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
By the numbers week of 6 5-17
1. BY THE NUMBER$ Week of June 5, 2017
Brought to you by:
Andrew Kinney -- RMA®
GreaterSt. Louis Area
618-407-0592
andy.kinney@jwcemail.com
akinney.incomeforlifemodel.com
1. JUST ONCE BEFORE - The ongoing bull market for the S&P 500 stock index will
reach 99 months in length (i.e., 8 years and 3 months) as of the close of trading this
Friday 6/09/17. The stock market advance is just the 2nd bull out of 11 total bulls since
1950 to reach 99 months in length. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for
market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted
index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source:
BTN Research).
2. YEAR-TO-DATE – The S&P 500 was up +8.7% YTD (total return) as of the close of
trading on Wednesday 5/31/17 (the index was up +3.6% at the same point in 2016). The
split between “up” days and “down” days YTD through 5/31/17 is 55/45, i.e., more
“up” days than “down” days so far this year (source: BTN Research).
3. HOT AND COLD - The best performing individual stock in the S&P 500 index
during the first 5 months of 2017 (i.e., January-May) gained +68%. The worst
performing individual stock in the S&P 500 during the first 5 months of 2017 lost 61%
(source: BTN Research).
4. THE REALLY RICH - The top 0.1% of US taxpayers (i.e., top 1 out of every 1,000
taxpayers) paid 19.9% of all federal income tax for the 2014 tax year (source: Internal
Revenue Service).
5. JUST NOT WORTH IT - 23% of Millennials who have student debt believe the
college education they received “will never be worth” the debt they incurred.
“Millennials” are defined as the 75 million Americans ages 20-36 in 2017, i.e.,
individuals born from 1981-1997 (source: TD Ameritrade).
2. 6. NEW MATH - The 10-year budget forecast released by the Trump White House
on 5/23/17 boasted that it would reduce our deficit by $5.6 trillion “compared to the
current fiscal path.” The math behind the statement is that the Trump plan would
reduce the current $8.8 trillion of deficits projected over the 10 fiscal years of 2018-
2027 by $3.6 trillion through reduced spending and by another $2.0 trillion due to the
“anticipated economic gains that will result” from the plan. The net result: $8.8 trillion of
deficits are reduced to $3.2 trillion of deficits (source: OMB).
7. NO RECESSION HERE - The current economic expansion in the United States will
reach 8 years in length as of 6/30/17. No expansion in history has lasted longer than
10 years based upon data that has been tracked since 1854 (source: National Bureau
of Economic Research).
8. BIG NUMBER - Medicaid expenditures make up 17% of state spending on average
today, up from just 12% of state spending in 2010 (source: Medicaid).
9. WHAT TO CHARGE NEXT YEAR? - Health insurance companies have a 6/21/17
deadline for the submission of a “qualified health plan” (QHP) application for
participation in 2018 ACA exchanges. The application must include 2018 health
insurance premium rates (source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services).
10. AFFORDABLE - The ACA is expected to provide payments of $7.35 billion to
health insurance companies in 2017 in “cost-sharing reduction” (CSR) payments.
These payments are separate from the estimated $35 billion in “income-based”
subsidies (technically a “premium tax credit”) provided in 2017 to help individuals
afford their ACA monthly premiums (source: Commonwealth Fund).
11. KEEPS ME UP - 60% of 2,652 full-time employees surveyed in November 2016
“worry about money.” 30% of those surveyed “lay awake at night” worrying about
money (source: MetLife Employee Benefit Trends Study).
12. ALMOST HALF - 47% of 2,749 adults surveyed in February 2017 have at least
$25,000 of debt, not counting any mortgage debt they have on their home (source:
Northwestern Mutual Planning & Progress Study 2017).
13. THEY CUT BACK, WE INCREASED - US oil producers stepped up their “field
production” of crude oil by +645,000 barrels a day (to 9.34 million barrels a day) over
the 6 months from 11/30/16 to 5/31/17. The increased output was in response to a 1.8
million barrel a day cutback announced by 24 oil producing countries on 11/30/16
(source: Department of Energy).
14. REDUCE SUPPLY, INCREASE THE PRICE - 24 oil producing countries, including
all 13 OPEC members, agreed on Thursday 5/25/17 to maintain what amounts to a 2%
cut (i.e., 1.8 million barrels) in the global daily production of oil through March 2018
in an attempt to drive up the price of crude oil. The oil production cuts were first
announced on 11/30/16 (source: OPEC).
3. 15. RUBBER MATCH – It’s Cleveland vs. Golden State for the NBA title for the 3rd
consecutive year, the first time that has happened in NBA history. From 1984-87, the
Celtics and the Lakers met in 3 of 4 years (source: NBA).
The information contained in this presentation does notpurportto be a complete description and is intended for
informational purposes only.Any opinions are those ofthe content creator and not necessarilythose of Andrew
Kinney, JWC or JWCA. This information is notintended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or
investmentproduct. Information is solelyintended for recipients in jurisdictions where Andrew Kinneyis licensed to
engage the investing public. Investments and strategies mentioned maynot be suitable for all investors.Andrew
Kinney and JWC/JWCA do not provide tax or legal advice. Always discuss anytax or legal matters with an
appropriate professional.The S&P 500 and other such indices are unmanaged,do notincur fees or expense,cannot
be invested into directly and individual investor’s results will vary. Pastperformance is no guarantee of future results.
As with all investments,income generating programs,etc.various risks mayexist and JWC/JWCA recommends you
consultwith your financial advisor prior to making any financial decisions.
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