Industrial Energy use analysis best practicies and pitfals
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If you buy, sell or implement energy projects in industrial setting, in this presentation you will find how to pick a proper GEAR - Goal-oriented Energy Analysis and Reporting tools. Presentation explains how to set up energy project to avoid painful disappointments of non-recognition. We also show what not and how not to waste your time, nerves and resources. With proper GEAR your will do your job faster, with less stress, and secure recognition with executives.
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Industrial Energy use analysis best practicies and pitfals
- 1. Energy Use Analysis: Value, Pitfalls, Mistakes and Best Practice By Anatoli Naoumov, GreenQ Partners
- 2. Objective Demonstrate how energy use analysis helps engineers buy, sell and implement more and better energy projects
- 3. Take away message Proper analysis of energy use will help me Buy/sell energy projects faster and Gain praise, professional satisfaction and good night sleep
- 4. Plan What is the right tool and why? What’s in it for me? How to calculate savings by IPMVP? How to find new projects? How not to do analysis?
- 5. When looking at projects, CFO … Core business Energy projects Knows how it works? Yes Nope Has done it before? Yes You wish Has reliable numbers to prove results? Yes ? Acceptable return 10% 50%
- 6. When looking at projects, CFO … Core business Energy projects Knows how it works? Yes Nope Has done it before? Yes You wish Has reliable numbers to prove results? Yes ? Acceptable return 10% 50%
- 7. Proper tool … 1. Is as simple as possible, but not simpler 2. Links results to business 3. Delivers much more value than it costs Goal-oriented Energy Analysis and Reporting - GEAR
- 8. EMs: GEAR assures good night sleep Common approaches to measuring results: “It’s obvious, just look at the Amps” “Accountants will calculate” “Vendor will calculate” Proper GEAR: Pre-agreed result assessment procedure based on data and linked to key business indicators
- 9. Vendors: GEAR helps build business Win projects on value Make results count in the Boardroom Make client happy Satisfied clients send cheques Happy clients also send referrals
- 10. EMs and Vendors: risks and pains with no right GEAR Frustratingly long sales cycle Unconvincing Boardroom presentations At risk: Satisfaction, recognition, career, job
- 11. Determine reduction by IPMVP Before implementation: Identify and measure key consumption drivers and consumption through the same period Build a statistically valid baseline Record all non-measured factors that affect consumption After: Measure drivers and calculate Expected consumption Measure Actual consumption Check if factors are still the same, else adjust baseline Reduction = Expected – Actual ±adjustments
- 12. Watch for pitfalls • Understand accuracy and certainty of statistics- based baseline; agree on them with decision-maker • Monitor data for human error • Check dates: production is often recorded later • Use engineering common sense to validate model
- 13. Demand profile shows possible waste <1% of time demand exceeded 450kW 25% of the time demand was under 50kW 40% of the time demand was over almost 300kW
- 14. Is there a problem? 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 1-Jan-10 1-Mar-10 1-May-10 1-Jul-10 1-Sep-10 1-Nov-10 1-Jan-11 1-Mar-11 1-May-11 1-Jul-11 1-Sep-11 1-Nov-11 1-Jan-12 1-Mar-12 1-May-12 1-Jul-12 1-Sep-12 1-Nov-12 1-Jan-13 1-Mar-13 1-May-13 1-Jul-13 1-Sep-13 1-Nov-13 1-Jan-14 1-Mar-14 1-May-14 1-Jul-14 1-Sep-14 Nat. gas, m3 m3/ton Ovenconsumption,m3 Consumptionrate,m3/ton
- 16. CUSUM analysis and result April Baseline Oven recalibration
- 17. Result of calibration 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 1-Jan-10 1-Mar-10 1-May-10 1-Jul-10 1-Sep-10 1-Nov-10 1-Jan-11 1-Mar-11 1-May-11 1-Jul-11 1-Sep-11 1-Nov-11 1-Jan-12 1-Mar-12 1-May-12 1-Jul-12 1-Sep-12 1-Nov-12 1-Jan-13 1-Mar-13 1-May-13 1-Jul-13 1-Sep-13 1-Nov-13 1-Jan-14 1-Mar-14 1-May-14 1-Jul-14 1-Sep-14 Nat. gas, m3 m3/ton After recalibration in Jan 2014 consumption rate dropped below 2010 level
- 18. Value of Energy Manager New Plant Manager $115K per year CUSUM,kWh Major retrofit $240K per year
- 19. How useful is this dashboard?
- 20. Saved a lot of natural gas in 2016? m3 per unit 2014 1.39 2015 1.54 2016 1.26
- 21. … or not? 2014 (part) 2015 2015 (part)
- 22. Take away message For a copy of this presentation with notes and hidden slides please contact Anatoli Naoumov anaoumov@greenq.ca Visit us at www.greenq.ca or call 416-728-7239 Subscribe to our blog at www.greenq.ca/blog Proper GEAR => more business and less hassle Thank you
Editor's Notes
- W Did coffee work its magic? Let’s see. Who likes to deliver energy projects? Who likes to implement energy projects? Who likes to buy or sell energy projects? Who has to sell or buy energy projects regularly? Today I’ll share with you a couple of ideas on how to make your buy/sell experience less stressful and more engineer-ish. Transition Energy Managers and Vendors stand to benefit Which brings us to the objective
- I am here today to convince both groups that proper analysis of energy consumption helps find, procure or sell, implement and report energy projects. And by doing so it helps turn battle ground between vendors and energy managers into common ground. Transition I shall consider my mission accomplished if tomorrow you will remember that
- How? Avoid risk of perceived non-performance Shorten sales cycle, increase closure rate, generate repeat orders and referrals What helps clients succeed with more projects, helps us deliver more projects. Transition Here is my plan for the next 35 min or so
- Please postpone questions until the end, unless absolutely necessary Transition - W What is one hurdle that stops you from selling and buying more energy projects? Will I go to far to say to call this hurdle “CFO” in a general sense? I
- Guess the digit game. What’s the max you will bet on odd/even of the 2nd digit on a $20? 50/50 What if the 2nd and the 3rd digits stand for the month the bill was printed – 01 to 12? (not true) 75/25 Knowing how it works cuts risk and allows to profitably increase investment.
- Whose responsibility is to provide proper numbers? – Ours: EMs and Vendors What tools are available? – lots W
- Discussing details of each tool falls outside the scope of this presentation. Which tool to choose? What is an adequate tool? Answer is simple, but not easy: Match tool to goal Transition It’s easier said than done and I will help with criteria
- Rephrasing Einstein. CFMs, PSIs, degrees, Amps and m3 have little meaning in the Boardroom, that’s where projects are funded Transition -W First, let’s briefly discuss what constitutes value of energy project
- In which other system service provider determines their own marks? – Public schools. Sometimes it works, other times it does not. What happens when validation tool is not independent from the vendor? - VW Without GEAR all you have is an opinion. It may not get you far enough in the Boardroom. Unless effects of your project are reported in terms understood and valued by decision-makers, your funding application will fall into “Other”. Transition W What’s the value of measuring and analysis? Measure it or not it will be the same effect on business, the same amount of reduction, right?
- What’s more important: returns or risks? Who thinks returns? Why aren’t we at a casino yet? Ask your client’s CFO: what’s more important risk or return? Lower risk leads to higher approval rate, bigger projects, more projects. Transition Let’s take a closer look at personal risks I do not even know for which side – for vendors or for ems – this question is more important. Let’s start with EMs
- This slide needs example of lighting retrofit in freezer Vendors, this is your chance to showcase value of your projects and make them noticed by your client’s boss: Make your projects count in the Boardroom and price will never be an issue again. EMs, project investment decision is binary: go or no-go. Since value assessment is not an exact science, you only need to find a way to assess part of value sufficient to justify the required investment. Read more about this approach at Mark Jewel’s book and blog. Transition Now, let’s look at the value GEAR from the other side of the virtual barricade – vendors.
- Picture your counterpart empowered to talk to CFO and be understood. Result relevant to business is understood at higher level more and bigger orders Transition What if we do not use proper GEAR?
- Long: because C-level does not get it The only person who is not at risk of being busted is the owner, who is granted the right of graciously going out of business. Transition -W Enough of doom and gloom, how to do it right? Determining value of energy projects is a vast topic. Let’s take a closer look at direct utility cost
- Take 30 sec to read, then I’ll comment Only direct utility cost Based on best practices accumulated from engineers like you. Accuracy and certainly come at a cost. Aim to collect just enough data to produce model of desired accuracy The shortest version of IPMVP ever published. 100 p Transition Watch for pitfalls!
- Breaking any these rules will affect validity of the whole calculation Production time: I worked with a client who run a 2-shift production from 8am to midnight. Unless they could not fill the order, in which case they worked past midnight, while production was allocated to yesterday. Exact numbers do not exist in life Higher accuracy = lower certainty R2 alone can mislead Baseline formula must reflect physics Transition We have discussed Why’s, risks and value to existing projects. What GEAR can be used to find projects?
- Data covers a whole year 25% is weekends + holidays 58h of 0 Must have interval data Transition This was a fun warm up. Let’s tackle a more serious situation with a more serious tool - CUSUM
- Transition Last but not least – How not to do analysis