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Abstract	
  
	
  
The	
  exhaustion	
  of	
  principal	
  energy	
  resources	
  along	
  with	
  everyday	
  global	
  energy	
  
management	
  problems	
  forces	
  measures	
  to	
  be	
  taken	
  with	
  the	
  purpose	
  of	
  finding	
  
solutions	
   to	
   reduce	
   energy	
   consumption.	
   Although	
   the	
   transport	
   sector	
   is	
   a	
  
major	
  energy	
  consumer,	
  a	
  perfect	
  tool	
  to	
  predict	
  the	
  energy	
  consumption	
  of	
  all	
  
types	
  of	
  vehicles	
  does	
  not	
  currently	
  exist.	
  Existing	
  literature	
  describes	
  several	
  
models	
  that	
  give	
  good	
  predictions	
  for	
  energy	
  consumption	
  at	
  a	
  microscopic	
  level,	
  
but	
  none	
  of	
  them	
  are	
  versatile	
  enough	
  to	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  make	
  a	
  prediction	
  in	
  different	
  
conditions	
  such	
  as	
  different	
  environmental	
  and	
  car	
  specifications.	
  In	
  this	
  study,	
  a	
  
new	
  model	
  is	
  introduced	
  using	
  a	
  random	
  forest	
  algorithm	
  with	
  the	
  capability	
  to	
  
predict	
  energy	
  consumption	
  for	
  light	
  and	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  fuel	
  vehicles.	
  Included	
  is	
  a	
  
description	
  of	
  a	
  series	
  of	
  tests	
  performed	
  on	
  the	
  model	
  to	
  analyse	
  the	
  robustness	
  
of	
  random	
  forest,	
  such	
  as	
  cross-­‐validation,	
  on	
  energy	
  consumption	
  prediction.	
  It	
  
is	
   expected	
   that	
   with	
   this	
   type	
   of	
   machine	
   learning	
   algorithm	
   the	
   energy	
  
consumption	
   prediction	
   becomes	
   more	
   accurate	
   and	
   consequently	
   one	
   can	
  
produce	
  a	
  model	
  capable	
  of	
  performing	
  predictions	
  for	
  other	
  types	
  of	
  vehicles	
  
(hybrid,	
  electrical)	
  in	
  any	
  location	
  on	
  the	
  globe.	
  
	
  

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Abstract

  • 1. Abstract     The  exhaustion  of  principal  energy  resources  along  with  everyday  global  energy   management  problems  forces  measures  to  be  taken  with  the  purpose  of  finding   solutions   to   reduce   energy   consumption.   Although   the   transport   sector   is   a   major  energy  consumer,  a  perfect  tool  to  predict  the  energy  consumption  of  all   types  of  vehicles  does  not  currently  exist.  Existing  literature  describes  several   models  that  give  good  predictions  for  energy  consumption  at  a  microscopic  level,   but  none  of  them  are  versatile  enough  to  be  able  to  make  a  prediction  in  different   conditions  such  as  different  environmental  and  car  specifications.  In  this  study,  a   new  model  is  introduced  using  a  random  forest  algorithm  with  the  capability  to   predict  energy  consumption  for  light  and  heavy-­‐duty  fuel  vehicles.  Included  is  a   description  of  a  series  of  tests  performed  on  the  model  to  analyse  the  robustness   of  random  forest,  such  as  cross-­‐validation,  on  energy  consumption  prediction.  It   is   expected   that   with   this   type   of   machine   learning   algorithm   the   energy   consumption   prediction   becomes   more   accurate   and   consequently   one   can   produce  a  model  capable  of  performing  predictions  for  other  types  of  vehicles   (hybrid,  electrical)  in  any  location  on  the  globe.